thetechnicaltake's blog

I can easily make the argument that a 40% gain in over a year implies strong momentum that is likely to continue. But I won't make that argument, and instead, I will just state that this appears to be what it is: another data point that doesn't provide too much clarity.

A very extensive look at investor sentiment.

But the technicals have me rethinking these relationships. Is it possible that we could have higher yields and lower equities?

This past week the S&P500 made a marginal new high at 1159. Since the last marginal new high 9 weeks ago, the S&P500 has made 1.2% and along the way it had a 7% draw down. In my opinion, that's the path to the poor house - not the end of the rainbow.

With 3 out of 4 of our measures registering extreme readings, few words are needed to describe investor sentiment this week.

I feel like the robot in the television show, "Lost In Space"

If insider expectations continue to remain low, then why should yours remain high?

The investor sentiment data is consistent with a market that is in bounce mode.

Finally, the "Dumb Money" indicator has turned neutral after spending 28 consecutive weeks in the extreme bullish zone.

Nothing has changed from last week, last month, or even 4 months ago when the market was higher than it is now!!

I must admit that I am surprised by the sentiment picture this week. I thought the indicators would reflect a less bullish posture amongst investors.

Make no mistake about it, investors remain poorly positioned to weather a sell off.

Complacency reigns as they don't ring a bell at the top.

The price action around these key levels needs to be followed closely as we are in an area where new trends develop.

While all of this is short term noise, it is absolutely amazing that there would be this much commitment to the market after a 60% plus run in the S&P500.