thetrader's blog

After the last week’s good “window dressing” equities performance, it is time to reconsider some facts on the Economy. Our short term targets in SPX have been reached, since bouncing off the 200 day moving average. We should start hitting some resistance levels shortly (1320). The dull summer months might even provide some kind of consolidation/trading range, where volatilities come off, and present a nice set up for the autumn collapse we think will happen.

From www.thetrader.se

It was really easy getting that mortgage in Hungary, and the best of all, denominated in Swiss Francs, so the interest rate was low. Such a great plan, if it wasn’t for that currency risk.....

We passed the Greek Vote. Great news, but is the future all bright now? What about the rest of the World and it's Debt?

Greed is Go(o)d? It sure seems the increasingly polarized American Society believes so. With the wealth getting even more concentrated among very few, this will cause the US big problems in future. The Elite is getting a rather skewed perception of what a CEO should be paid, and what rights they have. They are no uberperson, they are just human.

With the Greek vote now done, the oil reserves opened up and the equities market going higher during the last days, all is great. Let’s not forget about the US Debt problems though. August 4th coming up soon, and Obama needs to extend that parabolic chart….
From www.thetrader.se

Greece’s problems are now “solved”, at least for some weeks, until the next debt tranches are to be repaid. The biggest pink Elephant in the Mediterranean, Spain, is passing by very calmly, with the tourists enjoying the cold cerveza on the beach. The summer months are the tourist months, but after this summer, when people decide not to buy all those cheap houses, the Pain will come back. Zapatero won’t run for another term next year, and the blame game has already started. With Spain facing the huge unemployment, the more than a million unsold homes, and local regions carrying “hidden debt”, we expect the autumn to be rather Spain oriented. From www.thetrader.se.

We have heard it all before. Self regulation, too big to fail, must be saved, bail out, tax payer paying the bill etc. Hoenig, not overly positive on the too big to fail institution, gives his view on the subject.

The biggest Elephant, still around, Spain’s troubled Cajas, are reportedly hiding large amounts of Debt. We have written extensively on the Spanish Economy and the problems it faces. Spain next up? Watch those CDS prices. Translated by Google, El Confidencial.

The Greek vote went great. Now we just have to fix the Economy. Remember, the ship is still sinking. After Greece short term liquidity has been “fixed”, we expect the problems in Spain to regain attention. Kathimerini on the Vote;

The Greeks invented Democracy, but it seems they also gave the World Debtocracy. Don’t forget to check the subtitles box before watching the video.

“Don’t fight the doctor……”

China is struggling with inflation, speculation, an increasingly polarized society and even some social unrest. Shilling continues his 5 part China article today on how the country is strolling along the path leading to Hard Landing.

BIS is warning of higher rates to come.

"All financial crises, especially those generated by a credit-fuelled property price boom, leave long-lasting wreckage”

Bank for International Settlements

Many pundits talk about Europe, and we hear about experts on CNBC discussing the Greek situation, but have never understood what Europe is. It is not the United States of Europe. Geography, history, religion makes it very hard to integrate the different countries in Europe on the ideological front, but even harder when it comes to the Economy. Below a great summary for all those experts that don’t have a clue what Europe really is. Courtesey of Stratfor’s Papic.