The Doubling Of Unemployment "Paychecks"

Tyler Durden's picture

As program trading computers pretend to care about such fundamental things as continuing jobless claims, a peculiar trend emerges. Over the past two months, it has become obvious that while continuing claims have doubled (up 124% to be precise from March 2007) - a major metric that many market participants (at least ones not based on a SPARC architecture) have been following - another, potentially more troubling observation is that Monthly Unemployment Payments have doubled the rate of increase in jobless claims (234% from March 2007 based on the Treasury Daily Statement). (For Leibniz fans, is this a third derivative issue?)

In summary, over the past two years, while unemployment claims have climbed from 2,688 million in March 2007 to 6,157 in May 2009, monthly unemployment payments have skyrocketed from $3,238 million to $10,807 over the same time period. Furthermore, run rating June 15 intramonth results, indicates that this will be the all time most cash outflowing month for unemployment benefits, at $12,354 million.

What all this means is that the Average Monthly Unemployment "Paycheck" has exploded from on average $1,000 to $1,800 in recent months (and over $2,000 runrated for June). Has the government been "pushing" benefits to the unemployed since December of 2008, when the increase commenced? The trend can be visualized easily in the chart below.

This would make sense practically: as there is way too much money that needs to be pushed to the consumer (either employed or unemployed), and since neither is borrowing from banks, maybe the Fed/Treasury have decided to facilitate the collection of outsized unemployment benefits in order to push the propagation of dollars in the economy. Of course, absent significant legislative change this would likely not be a legal approach to enhance M2 or MZM.

hat tip Mike

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
boiow's picture

typical keynsian bollocks.

Anonymous's picture

I think it means people with higher-paying jobs started to become unemployed at a faster rate.

Reese Bobby's picture

WE ARE THE SHEEP.  First the Feds perpetrate the trillion dollar theft of our American citizen's futures.  Then they have the gall to pretend to be shocked by select individual acts that they want us to view as vindication that they did not orchestrate the sacking from the very start.  If anybody reads this post I will lose most of you with this: As soon as our "public servants" in the Federal Government stopped checking their actions against our Christian God and Savior we were destined to end up where we are today.  I pray for the Grace of God to Bless the Bush boys, Bill Clinton, and Obama.  I do not pretend to know the Will of God.  But I do worry we are losing our status as The Light on the Hill.  May God Bless a humble but strong America.


rocky89's picture

rather than in the replica chopard watches the early morning; log in to the gucci pelham shoulder bag the Internet cafe while everyone's at dinner ?????? ????? dinner instead of mid-afternoon on a sea 2010 gucci sea day; and snag a chair in tag watches in the top-of-ship observation lounge in the corum watches the morning, as opposed to at sunset. ?????? ????? sunset. On sunny days, indoor conference spaces, gucci sunglasses men spaces, card rooms and libraries tend to baume watches to be under-used. Dine at off-peak hours to avoid lines gucci replica lines in the buffet.Walk, or sit, on armani mens watch on the promenade: Even party ships

voltaic's picture

The average unemployment check is about $300 a week. Each state has it's own payment schedule which range form a low maximum of $200 a week in MS to a high of $600 a week in MA. Unemployment benefits are also considered taxable income. I think it's more likely that the feds are hiding the number of people that are unemployed and collecting benefits, not that amount paid to each recipient. 

indio007's picture

Worse than being taxale it is considered unearned income. No EIC tax credits for the working poor that get laid off.

yangmiemie's picture
Welcome to visit Asics Shoe Outlet online shop, choose your favorite style here. You can buy Asics Tiger Shoes, Asics Casual Shoes, Asics Netball Shoes, Asics Kayano Shoes with free shipping. Asics shoes online from australia
supply men's and women's asics gel running shoes for sale .Get Gel Running Shoes from Asics Australia online sale, enjoy no tax, free shipping, high quality and cheap price. Come on!Just click add your favorite Asics Shoesto the shopping cart now. Enjoy online shopping experience here.
DavidDavid's picture

Last one to comment.  I win!