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The Doubling Of Unemployment "Paychecks"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

As program trading computers pretend to care about such fundamental things as continuing jobless claims, a peculiar trend emerges. Over the past two months, it has become obvious that while continuing claims have doubled (up 124% to be precise from March 2007) - a major metric that many market participants (at least ones not based on a SPARC architecture) have been following - another, potentially more troubling observation is that Monthly Unemployment Payments have doubled the rate of increase in jobless claims (234% from March 2007 based on the Treasury Daily Statement). (For Leibniz fans, is this a third derivative issue?)

In summary, over the past two years, while unemployment claims have climbed from 2,688 million in March 2007 to 6,157 in May 2009, monthly unemployment payments have skyrocketed from $3,238 million to $10,807 over the same time period. Furthermore, run rating June 15 intramonth results, indicates that this will be the all time most cash outflowing month for unemployment benefits, at $12,354 million.

What all this means is that the Average Monthly Unemployment "Paycheck" has exploded from on average $1,000 to $1,800 in recent months (and over $2,000 runrated for June). Has the government been "pushing" benefits to the unemployed since December of 2008, when the increase commenced? The trend can be visualized easily in the chart below.

This would make sense practically: as there is way too much money that needs to be pushed to the consumer (either employed or unemployed), and since neither is borrowing from banks, maybe the Fed/Treasury have decided to facilitate the collection of outsized unemployment benefits in order to push the propagation of dollars in the economy. Of course, absent significant legislative change this would likely not be a legal approach to enhance M2 or MZM.

hat tip Mike

 

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Wed, 01/13/2010 - 03:59 | 192087 Anonymous
Mon, 02/01/2010 - 18:11 | 213865 boiow
boiow's picture

typical keynsian bollocks.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 22:20 | 258622 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I think it means people with higher-paying jobs started to become unemployed at a faster rate.

Fri, 04/16/2010 - 23:32 | 305231 Reese Bobby
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WE ARE THE SHEEP.  First the Feds perpetrate the trillion dollar theft of our American citizen's futures.  Then they have the gall to pretend to be shocked by select individual acts that they want us to view as vindication that they did not orchestrate the sacking from the very start.  If anybody reads this post I will lose most of you with this: As soon as our "public servants" in the Federal Government stopped checking their actions against our Christian God and Savior we were destined to end up where we are today.  I pray for the Grace of God to Bless the Bush boys, Bill Clinton, and Obama.  I do not pretend to know the Will of God.  But I do worry we are losing our status as The Light on the Hill.  May God Bless a humble but strong America.

SEMPER FI DO OR DIE!!!

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 17:02 | 600961 Pointless Peasant
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Sun, 11/07/2010 - 09:59 | 706422 voltaic
voltaic's picture

The average unemployment check is about $300 a week. Each state has it's own payment schedule which range form a low maximum of $200 a week in MS to a high of $600 a week in MA. Unemployment benefits are also considered taxable income. I think it's more likely that the feds are hiding the number of people that are unemployed and collecting benefits, not that amount paid to each recipient. 

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 15:51 | 1204900 indio007
indio007's picture

Worse than being taxale it is considered unearned income. No EIC tax credits for the working poor that get laid off.

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 16:33 | 1026551 Mercury
Mercury's picture

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Fri, 06/24/2011 - 16:58 | 1399737 DavidDavid
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