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New Year's Eve Poll: What Issue Will Dominate (Actionable) News Flow In 2011?
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/31/2010 10:40 -0400
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Not sure why 'New Bubbles' and 'Commodity Fluff-guff' are separate choices? Picking
Commodity-bubbles. (As the News story! It might be more important as replacement-resource shifts spurr some of the other picks here and there.)
Tinkety-tonk!
While there are certainly some important issues here, I went with state/munipical insolvency. While I know some feel that the Fed may start to monetize state/muni debt to avoid a loss of confidence, foreign investors are wise to the ways of the Fed as well. I can see the Fed getting involved in the most distressed cases, but in the cases of Illinois and California, among others, I can not see the Fed easily signing on to long term ongoing assistance in this manner. The Fed has already put its eggs in the MBS/Foreign emergency relief/Bank and banking cartel support basket. While certainly the cartel has some stakes in the local/muni markets, the Fed will certainly need to continue to justify in the public domain now any new major lending/'investment' programs. The trends are not heading in the Fed's direction, more controversial support may well get them closed for business by the end of the 2010s.
The bond vigilantes could well be visiting the USA at a local level during 2011, and as we know from Ireland and other recent examples, the investors call the shots as to how governments are run due to their dependency on this financing source (due to the Ponzi nature of all western governments today, none are self-sufficient save for a handful that know how to run their financial affairs on a balanced budget basis). Until they are made to take haircuts, civil unrest in affected countries will increase. With haircuts, interest rate risk will jump as it probably should.
The picture changes if interest rates rise as they are bound to soon, the banking cartel (since China is slowly divesting from the USA on a basis they can get away with politically) may well insist on higher treasury rates to compensate for higher risk, especially if the Fed jumps into the muni market. Interest on the US Debt is one of the greatest wealth transfers in history from the poor to the rich, certainly that is going to continue and expand. Only the American people as a whole will decide politically when enough is enough in terms of this wealth transfer to the rich. The banking cartel counts on that the American people have not put this together yet, and may never.
Bulls will be buried forever under Titanic
The more things change , the more they stay the same..
"Loser"
Words by Robert Hunter; music by Jerry Garcia
Copyright Ice Nine Publishing; used by permission
If I had a gun for every ace I've drawn
I could arm a town the size of Abilene
Don't you push me baby cause I'm moaning low
You know I'm only in it for the gold
All that I am asking for is ten gold dollars
I could pay you back with one good hand
You can look around about the wide world over
You'll never find another honest man
Last fair deal in the country, sweet Suzy
Last fair deal in the town
Put your gold money where your love is, baby
Before you let my deal go down
Don't you push me baby
because I'm moaning low
I know a little something
you won't ever know
Don't you touch hard liquor just
a cup of cold coffee
Gonna get up
in the morning and go
Everybody's bragging and drinking that wine
I can tell the Queen of Diamonds by the way she shine
Come to Daddy on an inside straight
I got no chance of losing this time
No, I got no chance of losing this time
I would say European Insolvency, followed by Fed Monetary Policy, followed by China Hard Lending and Muni Insolvency... The rest are symptoms
You have just to many that can happen in 2011, but I picked the solvency issue with municipalities and states. I think this is the black swan event for the insolvency of the US.
Yes, definately many, many municipalities will finally have to declare their insolvency in 2011.....the kick the can strategy of extend and pretend will come to an ugly end......in NJ they couldnt even remove snow in some towns , on major highways, 5 days after the storm ended !!!.....of course they didnt admit the truth, but they will have no choice in 2011
Everything depends on what the FED does.
Everything on the list falls under the beat up,
wind blown umbrella that is POMO/Fed Action/Qe#?...
The Prof's continue to paint themselves in the corner with
hubris strokes and confidence without reason. Someday
a real rain is gonna fall. Happy New Year people...Teach
peace, and manage those deltas.
What Issue Will Dominate (Actionable) News Flow In 2011? State/Municipal Insolvency/European Insolvency/ Commodity Price Surge (Gold, Silver, Oil, Palladium, etc). I voted Commodity Price Surge because it's real but unreported yet the question was what issue will dominate "Actionable news flow". Definitely Municipal and European Insolvency will dominate (Actionable) News Flow in 2011. Therefore, I failed!
Insolvency, Bitchez!!!!!
Food Prices needs to be included, since I would expect those to more quickly trigger a response from the general population, even compared to gas prices. That would be #1 for me.
ETA: Actionable? Pre-position for land prices, oligopoly profits, grocery chain margin squeeze.
That said, it really seems as the general population is no more aware of any of the ones stated than any other, for some time to come. When the g.p. starts to really notice *any* of these, then will be the time to put up the blast shields.
Food is horrible underrepresented in this poll. When the collapse is triggered, food will be the number one issue. Violence will be second.
2011 could be none of the above. The powers that be have been doing a good job of kicking the can down the road..... eventually we will see a collapse with all of the above happening, 2011 or will it coincide with all the 2012 Mayan calendar not job quackery?
The key question IMHO is the duration of the coming collapse...
Will it be 6 months with a new metals backed currency emerging and the gears of the world trade barely glitch , or will it be prolonged with society descending into local tribes and the dark times lasting centuries, like the fall of Rome?
Dah, Dunt.
Dah, Dunt.
Dunt-dunt, dunt-dunt, dunt-dunt, dunt-dunt, dunt-dunt, du...
AUGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!
LMAO!
Damn,
Always look in the direction opposite the crowd - which means FAT TAIL INSURANCE and HYPER DEFLATION.... mark it as an absolute!
That is my vote too.
Yea. Being contrary has a long history of being right. The only real problem ever is the timing. Prechter is about the last (public) deflationist and even his service has said this market has held up longer than they expected. Still, if you are a contrarian, these numbers are very telling for the deflation camp. The interesting thing is that everybody talks about the Fed/banks using fractional reserve banking to "create" money, thus the inflation/hyperinflation argument. These same people then can't even imagine deflation when we have an environment where debt can't possibly be paid off, resulting in repudiation of that debt sending the fractional reserve equation into reverse. Whatever the main story ends up being, I think it is going to be a bad year.
There must be a way to make an entropy argument to show that you can not go in the reverse direction with fractional reserve banking. Like saying the glass of wine that falls from the edge of the table can fall up from the floor re-assembling itself as is returns to the edge of the table. Newtonian physics allows this, but thermodynamics does not. Where we are now is that the wine has stained the carpet and baby has cut her foot on the broken glass. Perhaps Bernanke is just trying to increase entropy with QE-n. Maybe he doesn't like children.
The keyword is actionable.
European Insolvency will be papered over, with lots of help from the US Fed.
States and Municipalities will be left hanging a little longer - before in the end QE4 helps them out (meanwhile QE3 will be an extension of QE2).
Commodities might surge for a while but will pull back because the economic slowdown cannot be ignored forever.
Hyperin/deflation is a bit more down the road.
That leaves Surging FX/Rates Volatility as the most actionable issue.
Muni / State and Europe insolvency is a given, could you please delete those two and let predict
about the rest?
Big picture keeps on keepin' on. BS Bernanke keeps racking up the debt to "invest" in failed and failing enterprises. Commodities continue to rise "dumbfounding" the harvard educated experts - or at least that is what the script tells them to say.
Netflix CEO's plea to not short the stock because it is going to the moon is looked back upon as the ultimate bell ringing to sell. Netflix will never see these prices ever again. Technology is going to obsolete them like a full service brokerage account charging 1% to buy or sell. Video will be easily streamed and the content owners will demand more money rather than accept the crappy deal netflix gives them today. They are the equivalent of Tower Records. bwtfdik?
The story of '11? Insolvent pensions, baybee!!
Happy new year to all youse ZHers, from TD down to l'il me.
VIVA!
Sager
Life with $5-6/gallon gasoline
Market watch had a story that december was best month for autos. I say how? It's been less than. 2 years since chrysler and gm went bust and their best sellers are gas guzzler light trucks.
Everyone k know that has a truck bitches about gas prices. They ain't buying a new one that's for sure.
This also hurts the trade people who have to drive around in gas guzzlers and construction which is gone, but copper, lumber and gas now at highs
We need a Monica story...
Great options! But size of the story depends on which state controlled media is reporting.
I chose European insolvency because I think it's a big chain reaction pile up, and going to happen next.
But American MSM doesn't report on the collapse of socialism, so the tree falling might not make a sound.
I suspect we will stumble through a series of them, with commodities inflation being the most visible.
Commodity inflation, especially energy and foodstuffs, will IMO be the dominant theme that is least controllable by TPTB. There is a reason why Algore has backed away from advocacy of Ethanol, and it is the demonstrated fact that skyrocketing food prices nearly led to revolutions all over Asia and Latin America as Americans decided it was wise to buy up all their food and to turn it into fuel for their cars. Every time I come back to the US I am shocked how much food price-inflation there is and how little commentary one hears about it in the news, but at some point we all notice that the packages are smaller and prices are higher, assuming we have enough gas to get to the store.
TPTB in the US and Europe will do their best to whack the ugly local moles that keep popping up. The Fed will buy up distressed muni debt because an outright bailout by the Treasury of a profligate state like California would push the more responsible states like Texas to test the resolve of the Feds to keep the Union together. As long as Germans are willing to keep spending their hard-earned savings to bail out the rest of Europe, the euro will continue to limp along ... these are not your grandfather's Germans, and they do seem to put up with a lot of shit because the rest of Europe keeps shaming them with that WWII stuff.
My continuing theme, however, is the war between the dependent Urbs and the productive Burbs. There is an alignment between the dependent classes and their enablers in the bureacracy, and it is to bind you to your land by devaluing the value of your home and to work you harder and harder to pay the higher taxes to keep the participants in this unholy alliance in the styles to which they have become accustomed. This, plus the rampant importation of cheap labor to do the work that Romans would not do, is essentially what brought Rome down, and we are, after all, the New Romans.
The fall of 2008 will be just like the spring of 2011. Gas will go past $4. Real Estate will collapse again. Gridlock in the Banking sector. People will stop buying. Auto industry is toast. The start of the Great Depression II ...The Euro & Dollar gives the way to world currency the Bancor. Two words to live by for 2011... Food & Ammo.
I look for the rail industry to flourish in 2011-12...when energy is back at its old highs, rail will be much cheaper to go cross-country than semi-trucks even with the delivery time trade-off...
Mr. Buffet wasn't looking for a short-term gain when he bought-in this year.
I really just closed my eyes and guessed.... How could I loose....
Hack the Planet!
Interesting that none of the choices are benign in nature. Is it not possible that nothing serious occurs in 2011? It's a biased poll since you're forcing negative outcomes by offering only negative choices.
There is the "other" choice there.
iPhone 5 brings love and peace anyone?? actually my eye is on Dow's Powerhouse solar shingles for '11.. how many can i buy with silver come May?
There are so much to choose. I picked EU insolvency because Spain is the straw that will break the EU's back. When she askes for a bailout this will send shockwaves ariund the world. Also Germany will never accept a unified EU bond. High commodity prices will be the news that same way it was back at 07,08. There is so much geopolitical pressures. Pakistans slowly collapsing,Mexico's never ending drug war,the quagmire in Afghanistan. We might see another Israel-Lebanon war which will be worse then 06.
2011 could be the year the China bubble pops. With high energy prices,high inflation and a bubble housing economy these pressure will be too much to bear. The PBC will probably do more rate hikes but to no avail.
I dont see muni default in 2011 the reason is because the Fed Res will buy the bonds. I do foresee a rise to crime and draconian state,city austerity measures that will lead to rising crime,and high unemployment.
The new Congress will do no cuts because of gridlock. We will see gridlock and more division. The "tea party" House of Rep will be divided when it comes to cutting defense spending. Nothing will be done in the govt. More spending and more useless debates in Congress. Gridlock will get nothing done.
Other: Japan. Canary in a coal mine. The whipping boy for '11.
All in all, 2011 will be much ado about nothing. "It can't continue", but it will for another year. Boring year ahead, especially in view of the expectations for either robust growth or a complete collapse. Neither will happen. It's a long road down which the can can be kicked.
The good news is that on ZH everybody can post the same comments, again and again, for another year.
Chindit, ya really think so? Same old same old? Extend and pretend?
I think we'll see signs of systemic instability.
They will show up in every aspect of life.
Flash events.
Flash Floods.
Earth Changes (no, it's not man-made, it's bigger, cosmic, sun driven).
Massive commodity price moves, especially and primarily in edibles. Metals might come a distant second to them.
Energy supply disruptions. Weather related, fuel related, war (covert) related.
We will see Muslims vilified, more and more. The bully on the block is spoiling for a fight.
The bully will hit the ground. Hard.
We will see the spontaneous eruption of flash mobs, disgruntled by this, that or th ethird things. Shortages, repression, media driven hate... all of those and more.
And in the midst of all this, scales will fall off people's eyes. You can only put up with so much.
I see the formation of communities. People will learn why tribes survived millenia and the nuclear family has exploded in less than a century.
Alter-natives, their time is coming.
Finance will see the bonfire of currencies and reputations.
Clay feet will be exposed. Ruthlessly, relentlessly.
In-dependence, my key word for 2011.
If you see a giant wave coming, don't cringe, ride it. Like a master.
Balance. Find it. In life, fractally.
Awe-some times ahead.
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com
$5 gasoline is going to drop the world.
your funny chindit13.
most actionable: who is tyler durden?
where in the hell is Marla†
Currency/Trade Warfare
Why, cause all the above has to do with the control of capital anyway. And the war has been going on for 150 years as it is...
Default will be the optimum word for 2011; whether it be European counties, US states, European citizenz, and/or US citizens. It will be the in thing, a fad, a craze, a solution.
like BK's after the dot bomb? that led to tighter rules... how tight can the rules go after another wave - this would be pure insolvency.. what next, debt prison? or is that what they call america already?
Very surprised Municipal issues are leading this poll. QE3 will be buying the worst of the Muni bonds, thus kicking that can down the road.
On the other hand, you cannot get around half a trillion of bond issuance that will occur among EU members in Q1.
Oil shortages leading to food shortages leading to war. The question will NEVER be . . . "how can an army or air force attack when there is no oil?
That will never be the question. The military will always have priority for the last of the oil rather than hungry citizenry. They will always be able to sell it as "That's how we go GET oil to deliver food to our hungry citizenry."
The futures/forward curves of WTI continues to flatten from strong contango 2010 levels as storage capacity continues to grow while demand levels remain muted in western nations. Wild card continues to be crude/refined consumption in BRICs.
Europe insolvency was going to be my
bet but when Bebe's bunker busters are
deployable this spring, you know what he's
going to do with them. Mark my words.
Stay long in front of that if you dare.
I vote for multi-family households of blue collar workers forming their own militias and taking over suburbia one housing development at a time. Form perimeters, jungle rules.
Alex, I'll take anal malgamation of them all.