2008 Chart Comparison.

thetrader's picture

By www.thetrader.se

 

Santa Rally brought us straight up to resistance levels. With today’s news on the European Downgrade out of S&P the market is feeling nervousness again. The slow no volume melt up over the past weeks made people comfortable running positions they don’t actually feel comfortable with. The Volatility collapse has attracted way too much dumb money chasing long only ideas.
This “strange” market is feeling more and more like the market we experienced in 2008. We just need a big bank failure, and we are back to where it all started. Lehman moment imminent?

Chart comparison with 2008 below, or is this time different?

 

SPX and Vix

 

 

Some more simple charts click here

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arg's picture

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Zero Govt's picture

will 2012 be a fractul of 2008 ?

will Benny come out to play (blow bubbles) again?

will Tiny Tim be big enough to fill the shoes of Wank Paulson and 'save' the financial system (the big fat diseased parts) ?

will Twinkies rise from the ashes of bankruptcy and double the exports of America as President Bumma has promised?

I don't know but i'm happy to short the fuking lot

sabra1's picture

the markets are just a sideshow people! while we all look at trendlines and squiggles, the globalists are buying all the debts they can muster. all the QE's are digital air money. MBS will be the next QE, whereby all mortgage debts will be bought, making renters out of everyone. rent to be paid with real money to the globalists. once all debt is collected, they crash the markets. everyone will be broke. look at what the right hand is doing, not the left. 

illyia's picture

Sabra, I am with you to the end point. But then?:

PTB have all the debt, bought with Fed delivered digi dollars, people are paying (not with fiat alone, but with real production) and wage slaves pick no bones. Now the national debt(s) become unservicable, QE to infinity has reached its finale, and across the board forgiveness is the only recourse - or is it. - ? -

At this point one must presume 1.) the PTB have scared Joe Public with incarceration and/or further penalty. 2.) everyone understands the degree of corruption. 3.) only physical violence is possible for control of the unwashed masses. 4.) no actual profit is possible.

Finally, the QUESTION: What are the PTB's debts worth?

Are they already in Patagonia with GWB and Dad? How do they administer profits in the face of chaos/indifference from a distance?

This looks like the fall of the USSR to me.

i.

ebworthen's picture

Eerily similar looking.

Bank of America failure with J.P. Morgue picking it up?

Wells Fargo getting passed Merril Lynch, and then Citi when it goes below a dollar?

All covered by the FED and approved by the Treasury.

Never say never.

WaMu
Lehman
Unicredit
Dexia
AIG
Bear Sterns

847328_3527's picture

Defaltionary Downward Death Spiral is what I see with much higfher unemployment, foreclosures, bankruptcies, mall closings, etc unless the basic method of stimulus changes actually to reach consumers.

Bill Gross said one massive problem is the plunging "aggregate demand."

Zero Govt's picture

the plunging "aggregate demand" is a problem caused by, as most others, spiralling US Govt debt

consumers don't need a diploma in rocket science to work out as those economic retards in Washington keep spending, some poor suckers down the road are going to get tax hikes to pay for the bill

Solution: Stop Paying Your Taxes (cut the parasites off before their bill arrives)

Johnny Yuma's picture

It's definitely possible that a lot of longs are about to really get trapped here based on a lot of the sentiment going around. The ES has been selling off in the AM and then retracing the entire move back up in the PM. This could be indicative of a power change as well. I recall the market doing this in 2008 and right before the US downgrade crash occurred.  

Skip Danger's picture

Don't get too bearish, yet, girls. We still got 2-3 months of rally left.

Skip

(ps: we have to get past this mini-crash first)


Roland99's picture

that right (well, left really...heh) shoulder is really taking shape.

 

Dan The Man's picture

the 10,000 DJ of 2005 be the same as 2015? 

 

philipat's picture

Possibly even 2018. Secular Bear Markets tend to be about 18 years and this one started in 2000.

balz's picture

TPTB will not let 2008 happen again. The Cartel will print. They will only let it down to a certain point, so that people feel uncomfortable enough to justify all that printing.

e2thex's picture

thetrader,

Your commentary asks:

Has the market managed "sucking" in the dumb money?

 

Answer:

Short-covering doesn't suck in any money. 

Your premise is incorrect.

ghostfaceinvestah's picture

I remember people saying that in 2006 about the housing market: "house prices will never drop much, the government would never allow it to happen".

Maybe they want it to crash (after they are all positioned for the crash).

CPL's picture

Why would the government care?  Seriously.

 

The government didn't make people panic about buying their homes in retarded flip schemes.  Home owners did.

 

The banks however are a different story, they should have tanked with the homeowners.

baby_BLYTHE's picture

the crash in 2008 was an orchestrated event and they made a movie about it called Inside Job. During the Oscars where it won Best Documentary Feature they made the point that no one has gone to jail for the crimes committed leading up to the crisis. They love rubbing in the fact that they got away and got to keep the loot. And yes, infinite QE is the new normal.

FMR Bankster's picture

Yeah, I remember that movie. It's the one where the simpleton NY times reporter (now of course a CNBC host) is given "special inside access" so a bunch of ass clown goverment officials can white wash their f*ckups in bubble blowing,(the Bernank)and failed goverment policies (Geitner, Paulson, congress and let's not forget Bush)that pushed the world to the edge of collapse. I hear they are planning to do a sequel in 2012.