• rcwhalen
    05/25/2012 - 09:44
    We will only learn about currency risk exposures as and when the creditors disclose same to investors.  In the meantime, we’ll have lots of fun watching media spin their wheels over the...

2008/2011 Chart Update

thetrader's picture




By www.thetrader.se

 

With markets having put on nice gains during the past weeks on hopium of the Euro mess getting solved, let’s review some important charts. SPX has retraced approx. 57% of the move down from the highs we put in this summer. We are slowly approaching the 200 day moving average, and major resistance levels.

Compared to 2008, the chart set up is looking similar. Back in 2008 we had the same collapse, and we retraced approx. 57% from the highs made back then. The long term trend line was broken, and we traded below the 200 day average. The situation now is almost identical. If we are to witness another collapse of equities or not, you decide. With volatilities crushed last couple of days, fewer people seem to even consider another possible sharp decline in the equity markets. Stay tuned.

Some 2 weeks ago, we posted Buy the Dip (UBS Technical Research), but we believe it is time to take money off the table.

 

 

2011.

Approaching 200 day moving average and major resistance points.

 

 

 

 

2008.

 

We ran up to the 200 day moving average, and collapsed....

 

 

 

...and what is Copper telling us?

 

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Mon, 11/14/2011 - 05:21 | 1874969 dida
dida's picture

I think this change is visible now, but there still to be many similarities between the charts. Cazare Sinaia ieftina

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 20:23 | 1806528 chancee
chancee's picture

And don't think Bernanke isn't obsessed with charts just like these.  Minute we get near 200 DMA, there will be announcement of QE.  Only problem is... Bernanke is such a psycho, that he orchestrated a bunch of leaks over the past week about QE3 to keep the market from falling during the 'Euro resolution' week, and now that's pushing oil up so high, that by the time he would really need to pull QE3... oil will be too high, dollar too low, etc.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 20:18 | 1806516 chancee
chancee's picture

There is a bunch of crap on the left side covering up the charts

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:34 | 1805860 NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

Onto Dow 13K...everything is solved...consumer spending increases of 0.1% are enough to say "there will be no recession" and now the rumors of QE3 here are starting...the flea market has opened so don't get left behind because these dogs will go up 20% before someone trots out the "P/E of 16 starting to get a bit rich" headlines...

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:41 | 1805565 caerus
caerus's picture

have been watching the 200...looks like we're at the top of the recent range so staying short...path of least resistance appears to be down imo

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 14:45 | 1805333 Odin
Odin's picture

My guess, the agreement reached on Wednesday will be seen as too little, too late, and the markets will tank. Even if the sheeple manage to find a much higher dosage of hopium, after a rally like this and with the 200 day fast approaching, gravity is just beckoning...

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 13:50 | 1805083 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

We could just spend another month in the 1240-1260 range, bound in very boring trading. 

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 13:29 | 1804977 St. Deluise
St. Deluise's picture

imho the reason this rally has been so strong/relentless is that the target (the 200 day) is plainly obvious. and when a target becomes obvious, price usually gets there in a hurry.

with the added bonus that it has gotten people already throwing in the towel on the bear case for the year and for some larger idiots, all together.

maybe. let's see it regain the 200 first.

similarly let's see /dx break back below its 200.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 12:51 | 1804838 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

On the May 6th 2011 flash crash, the stock of Accenture opened at $41.94 and hit ZERO at 2.50pm and closed at $41.09

 

We live in an insane world.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 12:36 | 1804760 AngryGerman
AngryGerman's picture

this time it's different...

nah, it's just worse

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 12:31 | 1804742 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

i think this shows whatever criminal market manipulations and price rigging the Fed-banking cartel gets up to the market is till behaving much like a market (in the main) bouncing around its 200 DMA's and other key trends.

I don't doubt as in the massive criminal actions of central banks worldwide rigging the price of Gold is a huge paper smackdown a few weeks ago these Govt Gangsters can have temporary impacts on the market. But i suspect like the central banks feeble attempts to control their currency, by pissing away vast amounts trying to politically mis-manage reality to what they'd like to hear, that the effects of their criminal interventions are brief (see ECB's and Swiss Banks pathetic results lasting barely a day or two)

The markets main trends will continue just as all political intervention in society and the economy (unless all-out totalitarian) is useless and worthless

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 12:57 | 1804847 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

fwiw dept:

vatican calls for a nwo central bank

note: nm rothschild's [ & sons]  does its books,... 

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 18:27 | 1806235 TruthHunter
TruthHunter's picture

Vatican calls for...

Sigh... another sleazy opportunist.

I thought the Vampire Squid was the Vatican's central bank.

 

On second thought, I take sleazy back.  Its not strong enough.  I know too much of the hidden history.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 13:37 | 1805025 El Viejo
Mon, 10/24/2011 - 12:31 | 1804739 PAPA ROACH
PAPA ROACH's picture

Anyone have a line on where I can find a hopium den in houston?

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 18:26 | 1806226 Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

Longwood & South, second house on the right its green.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 14:00 | 1805132 Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

It's between the massage parlor and the pawn shop, across the street from the coin shop and gun store.

It was former campaign office for the current prez.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 11:54 | 1804588 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Super charts, thank you. But what does any of this have to do with hopium? It is all so absurd.

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