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2012 - Things that will happen
Significant economic and political changes will make 2012 a historical year. The globe has experienced relative calm for the past 24 months. That stability won't last much longer. Events that are not on anyone's radar screen will matter the most. The following are the things that I think might happen, but it's the surprises that worry me.
-Silas Kiplagat will win the 1500-meter race at the Summer Olympics in London. The time will be 3:33:22.
-Obama will drop Joe Biden from the ticket. Obama will want a Veep that has a chance to be a viable presidential candidate. He will chose Hillary Clinton.
-Green Bay will beat Denver in the Super Bowl. (Millions of Christians will be disappointed).
-Mitt (the suit) Romney will be the Republican presidential candidate. The nomination will be a fight to the very end. Newt (the fool) Gingrich will come close, but will not get the nod. Romney will announce that his running mate will be South Carolina Governor, Nikki Haley. Her presence on the ticket will give Mitt a chance.
-Ron Paul will run as a third party candidate (Green) He will get 10% of the popular vote. He will upend any chance the Republicans have.
-The presidential election will go to Obama. Ending up with only 44% of the vote, he will not have a mandate. The battleground states will be Pennsylvania and Ohio. Billions will be spent on getting the votes in those states. Pennsylvania will go to Obama. Ohio will go with Romney. The electoral vote margin will be very narrow as a result.
-The Kepler spacecraft (link) will identify a planet that has the capacity to sustain life (the ultimate safe haven). The scientists at CERN will confirm the observation of particles exceeding the speed of light. These developments will result in significant rethinking by the scientific community.
-The Senate will be split evenly between Democrats and Republicans. The new VP will have deciding votes on several key issues.
-Republicans will retain their majority in the House. Gridlock will be the outcome. There will be no new legislation of significance in 2012. A lost year.
-Iran will attempt to disrupt sea traffic in the Straits of Hormuz. Naval exercises by NATO, USA and China will be required to escort tankers through troubled waters. There will be an incident culminating in shots being fired. It will scare the hell out of everyone, but full military action will be avoided.
-Iraq will fall into sectarian violence. Car bombings will beset the country. The Kurds, in the north, will attempt to separate themselves from Baghdad. Turkey will get involved as a result of border problems. In the south (Basra/oil ports), the local Shia government will ask neighboring Iran, to help bring stability. The Iranians will establish a police presence.
-Brent crude prices will swing between a low of $80 and a high of $155. The highest level will be reached in September.
-Australia will suffer from a significant economic slowdown. The A$ will fall to 90 versus the buck.
-Cyprus will make a significant new gas find. This will result in territorial claims by Turkey. The UN, lead by Russia, will get involved in the dispute.
-Europe’s economic problems will not be solved. Every effort will be made to kick the can down the road. Neither the can nor the road will collapse; that will happen in 2013. EU GDP will struggle to hold zero.
-It will be confirmed that Iran has nukes and the capacity to deliver them. Iran will successfully test fire a Shahab 3c missile. Israel will not attack Iran.
-The US housing market will stabilize. Rental costs will rise by 7%. This, coupled with extremely low debt costs, will increase the demand for homes. In addition, the costs of constructing new homes will soar due to rising costs of materials. Virtually everything used to build a home (from cement to shingles) will rise in price by 10%. Construction of new homes will remain muted as a result.
-During the year, the ECB will be forced to actively intervene in the EU bond market on multiple occasions. Ten-year yields for Italy will range from 5 to 8%. Spanish yields will rise to 10% at one point. French bonds will reach 7%. The enormous refinancing requirements of EU countries and banks will be a constant problem. The market will become obsessed with the weekly bond auctions. There will be many disappointing results.
-The EU banks will struggle, kept alive by LTROs and E150B of new equity injections into the banks (a la Tarp). Public assistance to the banks will exceed E1 Trillion. The EU banks will not adopt the Basel Core Tier 1 capital ratio of 9% in June; the planned recapitalization will be shelved for a year. There will be much discussion about the scale of the government's involvement, which will be recognized as unsustainable. By year's end, the noose will be tighter and the financial options greatly diminished. By December 2012, the Euro Zone won't be expected to survive another year.
-The Swiss National Bank will maintain the 1.20 peg to the Euro. By the end of the year, the talk will be about how much longer the peg will continue. The SNB will acknowledge that the peg was a temporary measure. The speculation will be about how long “temporary” actually is.
-The Euro will range from a high of 1.4 to a low of 1.15. The low for the year will occur in November.
-The Yen will (finally) weaken. The low for the USDYEN will be 76.5 the high will be 90. (It's a great short). The problem for Japan will be its 200% debt to GDP. Global investors will shun the Japanese bond markets. Ten-year yields will rise to over 2% as a result. While Japan has gotten away with its excessive debt for years and global investors always had reasons to park cash in Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs), there will be no reasons left in 2012.
-As the US's presence in Afghanistan winds down, the Taliban will retake the country. The chaotic US exit will be compared with the end of the Viet Nam war.
-The Syrian government will fall. The country will face an uncertain future. There will be sectarian violence in Libya. Sophisticated weapons, including SAM missiles will be used. In Egypt, Field Marshal Tantawi, will consolidate power. Protests will continue throughout the region. The MENA economies will broadly suffer.
-The S&P will range from a low of 900 to a high of 1400. The high for the year will occur before June.
-The US GDP will languish. Growth will range from 1.5 to 2%. There will be clear evidence of a slowdown by mid-year. Unemployment will fall to as low as 8.5%, but will end the year back above 9%. The BLS will report 1.6mm of new jobs created during the year but the "birth/death" model will reduce that by 600,000. Labor force participation will continue to decline.
-Modest economic activity and core inflation above 2% will tie the Federal Reserve’s hands for the first part of the year. Politics will prevent it from acting prior to the election. In December of 2012, the Fed will be free to initiate another round of QE - an $800 billion Large Scale Asset Purchase (LSAP) will follow. The Fed’s new POMO operations will be divided equally between Treasury bonds and Agency Mortgage paper.
-The Vix will be volatile. The average for the year will be 30. It will exceed 45 twice.
-Greece will continue pretending it wants to be in the EU and tied to the Euro, until July. Its deteriorating economy and inability to service its restructured debt will force Greece to leave the EU and re-establish the Drachma. The New Drachma will trade as high as 1,000 to the dollar (800/Euro). When the Drachma is brought back (over a weekend), the Greeks will formally default on their external debt. This won't be the crisis that everyone fears, but it will add to the instability in the other peripherals. Populations in Ireland and Portugal will protest that their countries should follow Greece’s steps.
- The Academy Award winners:
Best Movie War Horse
Best Director Steven Spielberg
Best Actor George Cloony
Best Actress Michelle Williams
Best Support. Actor Christopher Plummer
Best Support. Actress Jessica Chastain
Best Orig. Screenplay The Tree of Life
Best Adapted " War Horse
-North Korea will be a problematic. Counter to expectations, Kim Jung-Un will not be the actual ruler. The generals will conspire with Kim’s uncle, Jan Song Taek, to take over leadership. There will be an occasional pop shot from north to south. The real trouble will come when NK boards and then sinks a S. Korean fishing vessel. This will bring US aircraft carriers off the shores of NK. China will hate this development. A nasty incident is the most likely outcome.
-The Miami Heat will fail to make the playoffs. LA will beat Boston.
-Keynesian economic thinking will be further discredited in 2012. The pump-priming Keynesians had their day in the sun, and now people will want a different approach. Paul Krugman will write a total of 100 blogs decrying this development. Larry Summers will write an OpEd for the WSJ warning that the US faces a strategic crisis if it does not contain the trajectory of the national debt.
-Gold will be very volatile. It will fall to below $1400 at one point. It will end the year above $2000.
-There is a significant risk of a big economic hiccup at the end of the year. The election has deferred dozens of tax/spending issues to 1/1/13. There is enough deflationary firepower built into the system to trigger a big slowdown. Post election, there will be just weeks to sort it out, or face the music. The drama and the pain of the just completed election will make it impossible to avoid a conflict.
-Japan will confront two divergent issues. Debates regarding the future development of nuclear energy for civilian use will arise as the true costs of the disaster at Fukushima are realized. Significant portions of the country will have to be abandoned. Costs of encapsulating and cleaning up will exceed $50 billion. At the same time, a growing force within the country will push to develop tactical nuclear weapons. The US's mandatory budget cuts for its military will elicit an extraordinary change which will take years to play out. Japan will lose confidence that its "protector" will be able to protect it.
-India will surprise everyone. GDP growth will fall from 9% to 3% (well under stall speed). Inflation will exceed 10%. The trade and current account deficit will rise. The Rupee will hit 60 per dollar.
-China’s GDP will fall to 4%. China has already overspent in infrastructure development. The buildout of empty cities will slow and unemployment will rise rapidly. This will stress the country and lead to political protests in many cities.
-Tiger Woods will win a major.
-China will continue to fund the west. It will allocate more capital to the core countries of Europe. China will get trade deals in exchange for its willingness to buy bonds. The holdings of US treasury debt will decline modestly for the year. The Chinese will react to the ongoing pressure from the US to force the Yuan to appreciate by doing precisely the opposite. The CHY will be worth the same next year as it is today.
-Bank of America will be forced to pare down its asset base. The stock will spend most of the year under $5. The subordinated debt will trade cheap.
-Goldman Sachs will go private. There will be many layoffs. The Squid will end up stronger than ever.
-The San Francisco Giants will win the World Series. The Yanks will be the loser.
-In March, it will finally be determined that MF Global used re-hypothecation to fund its operations. The customer losses will be attributed to this activity. Realized customer losses will exceed $1B. JPM will be identified as one of the banks that grabbed MFG assets in the final days. Customers will file civil claims against JPM, but those will be dismissed. Criminal charges will not be filed against MFG, Corzine nor JPM. The flaws in the system will be attributed to Reg. T. The Fed will promise a thorough review of the country’s margin rules. Nothing will be completed until 2013.
-AAPL will trade as high as $450. It will end the year under $350. The company will come out with a TV that won't be much of a success. Apple will lose out to Amazon (and others) in the "Cloud". This will prove to be a strategic error.
-The cost of solar panels will fall to a level where large scale, privately funded solar farms become viable. The debt for these farms will be functionally secured by a public utility and will be repackaged with shorter maturities that have a AAA rating. The lowest tranches of debt will have returns as high as 20%. Wall Street will love it and so will investors. Some utility stocks will do well as they have secured a source of renewable energy that meets the recently legislated requirements (RECs).
-Boeing’s shares will fall to $55. There will be problems with the Dream Liner.
-Dividend stocks will underperform the broad averages. The observation will (finally) be made that this is a very crowded trade and 2% does not compensate investors for their risks.
-Creative Cause (son of Giant's Causeway) will win the Kentucky Derby.
-The Chevy volt will suffer from numerous battery problems. There will be fires that result in serious injuries. The future of GM’s electric car will come into question. The stock will fall to the teens. Tesla’s outlook will become uncertain. Obama’s investment in Tesla will be a campaign issue.
-La Nina conditions will persist for the first six months of the year, bringing a series of big storms to Asia. Substantial new flooding will occur in the Philippines and Thailand. West Texas will have another dry year, the central states will have above average rain, and the North East will have a very bad winter.
-Silver will follow gold up and down. It will underperform gold. It won't hit $50.
-Narco violence in Mexico will escalate. There will be gun play on the border. Mexico will reiterate its position that the problem is the demand from the gringos, not the supply from Mexico. This thinking will lead to renewed discussion on legalization of Marijuana. Phillip Morris’s stock will rise above $90 in anticipation.
-BRIC investments will continue to underperform. Several big hitters will repudiate this investment strategy. That will mark the bottom of these markets on a comparative basis.
-Global food inflation will continue to be a problem. Global growth will advance by 2%, the cost of feeding ourselves will increase by 5%. Asia/India will bear the biggest brunt of the increasing cost of food. Wheat prices will rise 12%.
-US inflation will remain on the high side. Core will average 2.5% (1/2% above the Fed’s target). CPI will come in at 3.8%. Real inflation will be much higher. Treasury Tips will underperform. The Ten-Year Tips/Coupon spread will widen to 2.75%.
-Few countries will avoid social protests and demonstrations. Many will turn violent. America will not be spared. The angst of the people will be directed at their leaders, their lenders and the IMF. A redo of 2011.
-The election will spur debate on the future of America’s entitlement programs. There will be broad based agreement that the time has come to address the problems with Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. Politicians will try to divert the focus away from Social Security by pointing fingers at the Disability Insurance side of SSA. While it’s correct that this program is a complete disaster, the DI Fund is not the problem. The Retirement Fund is the real problem. The attention that DI will get is just a diversion from what is actually wrong with America’s favorite entitlement program. This will be a “young” versus “old” fight. Both sides will come to understand this.
-The summer of 2012 will bring the largest polar ice melt in history. The Mayan calendar will end with no consequence.
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regarding your prediction below----the u.s. already keeps tactical nukes on its bases in japan pointing at china or ready to be placed on a missile and on a boat or submarine aimed at china. ----japan is not allowed to have tactical nukes. japan has no choice but to allow the u.s. to keep its bases in japan.
the cold war is still in effect the u.s. will sonner abandon its basis in other areas than the bases in japan and the south pacific. china and russia are still the strategic endpoints. japan is a vassal state and until the u.s. is defeated , they will not regain their indepedence from their forced alliance with the u.s. against china and russia.
"-Japan will confront two divergent issues. Debates regarding the future development of nuclear energy for civilian use will arise as the true costs of the disaster at Fukushima are realized. Significant portions of the country will have to be abandoned. Costs of encapsulating and cleaning up will exceed $50 billion. At the same time, a growing force within the country will push to develop tactical nuclear weapons. The US's mandatory budget cuts for its military will elicit an extraordinary change which will take years to play out. Japan will lose confidence that its "protector" will be able to protect it."
good call.
Bruce, I think most of your predictions have a reasonable chance of happening except:
There will be broad based agreement that the time has come to address the problems with Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid
Not a chance in Hell. There will be broad-based lip flapping about how something needs to be done but everyone who matters in the political process will have a vested interest in kicking that can down the road as long as possible.
$100 trillion in unfunded liabilities you bet your sweet arse they are going to avoid dealing with it.
The Mexican economy DEPENDS on the drug trade.
Gigantic export industry dwarfing all others.
It is easier politically to fund the War against drugs than to give Mexico direct foregin aid. And as long as the cartels do not destabilize th eMexican government it will be business as usual.
And the banksters depend on its money laundering.....
Obama will not drop Biden. Biden as VP does more to protect him from harm than the Secret Service.
Mr. C, you win for having the single most intelligent and insightful comment, and verbiage on this sorry blog post today!
The rightwingers and Wall Streeters would love to have the Hillary in the Oval Office --- she who, on her very second trip to India as secretary of state, promised them more Americans to be laid off and their jobs shipped to them (none of these pols ever heard of live streaming????).
And Biden, of course, is a fount of wisdom:
"Mubarak isn't a dictator."
"Julian Assange is an international terrorist."
"I concur with the President, the bankers did not break any laws."
A veritable fount......
Great list. I think you're right about:
Obama/Biden
Mitt
Ron
Australia (I say 82 cents)
EU
Syria
Greece will be worse than you say
Yen
China GDP
India (maybe even worse)
AAPL losing the cloud
BRIC underperformance
Overall, very well done, let's meet back here in Dec 2012 and see how you did. Great job this year BTW, one of the best.
Australia Housing market is already slowing down and seeing rising defaults and delinquencies. Bill Bonner predicted this two years ago when he wrote Ozland was copying similar zero down NINJA mortgages combined with a Gubbermint $16,000 incentive to buyers.
It's all coming home to roost now...add to that problem a slowing Chinese demand from Australia and they have serious headwinds.
Good summary Bruce! I don;t agree with all the predictions but it certianly makes me ponder. The other day Jack Welch said 2012 elections will be very close as you also write now...Dems may win again.Tough fight for both sides.
Oh wow! THE JACK WELCH?
The guy who blew it out his but when he was with that auto company?
The guy who began offshoring as many tech/professional jobs as possible back in the mid-'80s (GE scientists, engineers, programmers, etc.)?
The guy who almost single-handedly turned GE into a private equity/hedge fund?
And you listen to this moron.....
I bet it took you a long time to type that list. Nice work!
LA will beat Boston.
Bloggah, pleaze.
Bachman / Palin 2012, baby! Double Trouble Ticket! Followed by their photo op in Playboy, a really bad porn movie called "Double Dykes Do Washington Doggie Dildo Style", with a crescendo when they finish their term with the Fuck America - REAL GOOD! tour, followed by all expense paid trips to the FEMA camp of your choice! But wait - there's more - free meds and indoctrination into the Mama Grizzly Tribe! Fuck, yeah! Good Times!
Bachmann/Palin ... Palin/Bachmann ... I don't care which one is on top, all I know is that this is a ticket I can get behind and poll to the max.
Oh wow, tough call:
Bachmann
or
Rocky and Bullwinkle, definitely Rocky at the top of the ticket, that way we get to see Bullwinkle defeat Biden in a debate!
I liked that rock group in the 70s --- Bachmann Warmonger Overdrive.
This is a "won year" for the people! Hooray for gridlock. This is absolutely the best thing that could happen in 2012.
Also, you might want to re-check your sources on the La Nina prediction. Looks like it will weaken by Feb-March: http://addins.waow.com/blogs/weather/2011/12/la-nina-machinations
Klingons from Uranus invade the planet, and steal all of our women. With no "domestic motivation", the male human race creates Eden all over again. Peace on Earth. As we all die off from bingeing on beer and pizza, Mother Nature cleans up the left overs from humanity, and there is some fresh interplanetary real estate available for rent by a responsible tenant. The new tenants find a blu ray copy of those cartoon Youtube mega downloaded Alvin and the Chipmunk voiced Kitty Kats fart travelling in outer space to psychotic disco rock music, and venerate them as the origins of mankind master race. End of story.
What a bunch of optimists you are! As the USA's greatest manufacturing export, damage, is entered into a deal with the Iranians, expect to see more photos of bleeding children, screaming women and the inert forms of men presented to us by corporate America. Hold on tight! The ride is just beginning.
“” Billary and Barry as VP and P””. I thought that in the period before the last Presidential election and agree.
Total tyranny will become a daily battleground with the US media in a criminal role not seen since Stalin and Hitler.
Vote in the Democrat mode, not once, twice, but thrice for a Republican control of the House and the Senate. Impeachment threat will be the only thing that can keep the country from total take over.
If the Senate is not taken, and the House is stolen, our Nation will change radically and not for the better. This time they will not make the mistake of hesitation or worry about the next election.
Vote. Vote smart.
Vote for the survival of the United States of America, your land, my land, your children and their children.
The final straw for Obama losing the support of young voters will come when it is revealed that the teleprompter-in-chief did an about face on his crusade against medical marijuana in order to get funds from big pharma while protecting the patent on Sativex, a drug made from cannabis, which is soon to be available in the US (currently being sold in the UK and Canada).
By removing the competition for Sativex, he will be pissing off young voters who will realize it is politics as usual as we still have the best politicians money can buy, including the Oval office occupant.
you must not be sleeping at night;
it's all going to be a long slow pull, the ME, the economic growth, restoring confidence in government.
Obama is over the tipping point. (HC was sent to a basement office (SOS) to get rid of her. Condi Rice had the job before her, it was mostly ceremonial) She will wait until 2016, unless someone else primaries Obama, recall Eugene McCarthy in 68' primaried LBJ. If you recall what happened then go to the head of the class..) Condi would run before Jeb, plenty of Bush redux, why not? Obama is nearly one of them.
OWS wins the battle of attrition, Wall Street becomes increasingly irrelevant, with few IPO's, low dividend yields, further instances of corruption, its really game over. Baby boomers move whats' left of their savings into TIP bonds as inflation targets are set and met, and Bernanke reminds everyone what he said in the first place. (What he didn't say was that interest rates would remain lower than inflation for an extended period, making TIPS a good investment)
the Superbowl will be a bay bridge series, SF and the Raiders?
(referees are already allowing aggressive play, with fewer penalties, and that's a metaphor for Obama and Wall Street, let the boys play. No new SEC regs or convictions for fraud. Raiders minus any penalties are a Super Bowl team)
when the two party system collapses the current members of both parties will suddenly change their allegiance, we may have a Congress with Greens, Libs and Indies, but they'll be the same old tired corrupt faces.
President Ron Paul will send the FBI to help Mexico break the Cartels, but only after he makes the CIA stand down. Drug trafficing through American intelligence channels is rumored but never proven, but standing down the CIA allows law enforcement to break the hold of the Cartels. and it works, just saying, the ATF weapons guns deal was just the tippy tip of the whole rotten underside of USINTEL.
it will be suggested that Osama was helped by the Chinese during the time he was planning the 911 attacks.
Cramer will say AAPL is going to a $1000 and he might be right, but the DOW will be flat.
Thanks Bruce for these thought-provoking predictions.
Yes, housing will get a bid as more seasoned individual investors lose faith in our brokerage system.
The politicians will "solve" housing by offering accelerated real estate depreciation as they did in 1981. Investors will be able to buy homes, and receive a 6% tax sheltered annual return. This will set a floor under house prices which will advance from there, and the real estate disease (buy as big a house as you can nearly afford) will start again.
Did you ever stop to think that maybe our politicians are so un-serious because there really is something to the Mayan prophecy of cataclysm?
Yes, I actually have stopped to think that politicians really are that stupid.
The evidence is absolutely overwhelming...thinking that a people, with the ability to see into the future, knowing their fate, do nothing to stop their own downfall. In fact they contribute to it and everyone around them.
Oh, you were talking about the Mayans ;-)
Choo know... have you heard about the US navy map? And that conspiracy to blow up the center of the US using the fraking natural gas system? Hmm. I like conspiracy theories, they're more entertaining than hollywood (cause they could be true)!
Yes. Makes about as much sense as anything else.
"There will be no new legislation of significance in 2012. A lost year. "
that would be a dreamy outcome...congress has produced absolutely no good legislation in decades....
"There is enough deflationary firepower built into the system to trigger a big slowdown. "
deflations do NOT cause slow downs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! i hope you are somehow confusing depressions and deflations but they are NOT the same!!!!!!
You missed a 2012 forecast:
Americans will finally come to realize that “free-market fundamentalism” is a crock-of-shit.
Also - many dead Persians.
Americans will finally come to realize that “free-market fundamentalism” is a crock-of-shit.
How can they figure that out if the US never had REAL free markets?
Bruce, on the electoral front. You are partially correct. It will be Obama/Hillary vs. Romney/Christie. Obama wins with only a plurality, but Republicans take the majority in the Senate (23 Dems running vs 10 Repubs) and maintain a majority in the House. The status quo prevails until exogenous shocks throw the world into chaos. Your predictions weren't great, but I always look forward to your posts. Thanks.
Mr. Krasting,
I have enjoyed your postings this last year. Thank you. Please keep it up. The same applies to the Tylers and ZH. This has been an extremely educational year for me.
Knowledge is power.
Good friends; stored food; rural location, farmable land and the ability to farm it; useful skills; self defense ;-) ; barter goods; US nickles; silver coins in physical possession... in that order.
Industry Balks at NYSE Sub-Penny Plan
By Peter Chapman
An NYSE Euronext proposal to permit its members to quote in sub-pennies is proving highly controversial.
The exchange operator's "Retail Liquidity Program" would create dark pools at the New York Stock Exchange and NYSE Amex, where members could vie for retail order flow with quotes only a tenth of a cent better than the market's best displayed prices.
Read the full story
we cant have the Goy Slaves taking pennies from off the top! LULZ!!
Bruce,
Your War Horse is an outside shot on Intrade @ 11%.
Barry O has a slightly better than even odds.
Ron Paul may be the dark horse since he has a 50% plus chance in Iowa, dropping to a 13% chance for New Hampshire. Watch the lemmings as the vote tallies progress from event to event.
Otherwise, consitently cheery for a gentleman of Swiss origins ...
Happy New Year and keep thinking, someone out there has to.
Ron Paul may be the dark horse since he has a 50% plus chance in Iowa, dropping to a 13% chance for New Hampshire.
That's because there's electronic voting in New Hampshire. If people were to follow their ``live free or die`` mantra, Ron Paul would win New Hampshire easy.
When Ron Paul wins Iowa he will spike into a close second in New Hampshire. Bruce, interesting predictions, especially China GDP at 4%. But no chance Paul will run third party. That's just a Democrats wet dream. Now that RP's son is in the Senate and the Taft wing of the Republican party has reemerged he won't want to diminish either of their future influence with a losing third party run.
My prediction
When it becomes obvious to TPTB that even by fixing the States with electronic voting machines that RP is going to reach critical mass he is assassinated.
Meant to write...that even by fixing the states with electronic voting machines RP is STILL going to reach critical mass.
Bruce -- you have no prediction, re: the Supreme Court's ruling regarding the Constitutionality of several key components of "ObamaCare," which will be rendered before the end of the [ 2012 ] term.
Birnam's Prediction: 5-4, Unconstitutional on all counts...which, in an odd sort of way, could actually buoy Barry's chances, as it removes one, large cudgel-like "plank" from the Republican platform. That said, there remain many more policy batons to wield by the GOP, upon this unpopular sitting president.
I actually believe Campaign Gingrich is finished, and Romney will roll up the nomination quite early. Be it Nikki or Condi, Romney will defeat Obama; The Incumbent is simply becoming more and more of a pariah, and the electorate -- fickle as they may be -- are tired of him and his unpopular agenda.
My only prediction for 2012 is that Anderson Cooper will blow some dude.
I think you meant to say 2011
"Ron Paul will run as a third party candidate (Green)"
WHERE did you get that totally clueless idea? NO WAY would RP run as a Green, a party with all kinds of statist positions in its platform. If anything, he'd run as a Libertarian which is exactly what he is. He ran as the LP presidential candidate in 1988.
I'd vote for RP if he ran as a green party candidate. And while I'm at it, I'd also advise peanut galleries to perform due diligence on the "enemy" before spouting off random combinations of -ist words
Just ignore Bruce when he gallivants off into areas where he has no inkling. That's what I do.
Strike one was a sports prediction, strike two was commenting on a VP candidate and misspelling her name, strike three was another sports prediction.
All within the first few lines, subsequently, I assumed (it seems) correctly the rest was semi-inebriated drivel.
TLDNR
that's quite a crystal ball you've got there, Bruce.
My prediction is at best 50% of your predictions come true.
Right or wrong - and it's saved, so I'll be checking back in a year - you gotta admire a man who's got the guts to make specific and detailed predictions instead of the usual "psychic" jive of 'There will be trouble overseas, and the markets will fluctuate'. And then signs it. That said, if the burgeoning civil narcowar in Mexico leads to real, substantive talks leading to maryjane decriminalization, I'll eat your hat. Too many cops, feds, judges, prison guards, DEA assholes, and all the rest have jobs - and weekly cash-filled envelopes - that depend on the idiotic & laughable drug war continuing & escalating.
And life will go on.