Afghanistan: "There Will Be Civil War"

Delegations from 100 countries and organizations will meet on Monday in Bonn, Germany, for a conference on Afghanistan. Among the 1,000 participants: Secretary of State Hilary Clinton, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon, Afghan President Hamid Karzai, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and 60 foreign ministers. "Laying the foundation for a better future of Afghanistan" the German Foreign Ministry proclaims. But just when official optimism showed signs of froth, classified documents surfaced in Germany that predicted a dire future for Afghanistan after the departure of NATO troops.

“It is time to focus on nation building here at home," President Obama announced in June, because "we're meeting our goals." He’d pull out 30,000 troops by September 2012, but from a "position of strength" not weakness. By late 2014, all combat troops from the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) would be withdrawn. In the interim, the US and its allies would transfer security responsibilities to the Afghan military and police. That’s the public plan.

But U.S. and German military and intelligence officials apparently have a much more pessimistic view: Bild, the largest German newspaper—a broadsheet tabloid—has obtained a number of classified documents (Bild, article in German) and decided to make them public "because they prove what no one wants to know."

Among them was a joint analysis by the German military and the US military that predicted that insurgents could regain power in Afghanistan when NATO troops are withdrawn. Bild quoted from the report: "After the end of the occupation by the ISAF in 2014, the leaders of the insurgency, who have fled to Pakistan, will return to Afghanistan.” And the conclusion: "When ISAF troops leave the country, there will be civil war."

A stark contrast to President Obama’s positive spin on Afghanistan’s future, though the likelihood of civil war has been bandied about for years. The model: when the Soviet Union pulled out of Afghanistan in early 1989, civil war spread across the country. There are also recent indications, for example, BBC’s story, "What happened when US forces left Afghan hotspot?" So, is NATO really “laying the foundation for a better future?"

Among the other documents that Bild got its hands on:

• Reports by the German military stated that the Afghan secret service was involved in deadly attacks on German soldiers, something the German Ministry of Defense has been denying strenuously.
• NATO documents outlined how Pakistan and Iran were colluding to support attacks on German soldiers. The Pakistani intelligence service, ISI, was also involved. They supplied weapons, training, and money.
• A document from the US military indicated that Pakistan expected an invasion of US troops and established defensive positions in the border region, including radar systems to detect low-flying aircraft.

Afghanistan is the country where a young rape victim named Gulnaz was thrown in jail for adultery because she refused to marry her attacker. The case caught the attention of foreign reporters. To get them off his back before the Bonn conference, President Karzai pardoned her. If it weren’t so tragic, it would be funny. BBC reports:

President Karzai tasked the minister of justice to go and talk to Gulnaz to see what she wants. During her meeting with the minister, she said she will marry the attacker only if her brother marries the attacker's sister," Emal Faizay, a spokesman for President Karzai, told the BBC. "This is a decision by her. I can confirm that there is no precondition set by the Afghan government.

But Gulnaz's lawyer, Kimberley Motley, told the BBC:

In my conversations with Gulnaz she told me that if she had the free choice she would not marry the man who raped her.

Ten years ago, the US military removed the Taliban from power, but Afghanistan still has these kinds of absurd issues. Okay, now they also have cell phones, TVs, and opium, but nearly 3,000 NATO soldiers—mostly Americans—died. It’s time to let Afghans sort out their future. Why wait till 2014 to pull all US combat troops out? There is one presidential candidate who promises to act promptly: Ron Paul.

Meanwhile in Europe, a flood of proposals, plans, and rumors to save the euro rely on the uneasy partnership between Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel. But he may be out of a job by May 2012—and his potential successors have very different ideas.... French Presidential Election: Coup De Grâce For The Euro?

Comments

[Sudden Debt]

You can solve this by issueing every Afgan citizen with a machine gun and 50.000 rounds "for home protection".

It will do wonders for our economy

decease the surplus population

and give way for the mineral exploration of the country and which will solve the silver deficits.

[forrestdweller]

this meeting in Bonn is probably very good for the german economy. the hotels in Bonn, Koln and Koblenz will be booked out. It will be busy in the restaurants and at the airports.

I'm not sure if it will help the afghan economy.

but nevertheless, the sooner foreign troops leave afghanistan, the better.

[rosethorn]

Who cares? That's a problem for the locals to solve.  The US needs to withdraw forces from Afg pronto; just make sure there's a helo landing pad on the embassy roof.

[mt paul]

it might be tougher

getting out of Afghanistan....

then it was to get in ..

irony is a bytch sometimes 

[Bananamerican]

" "After the end of the occupation by the ISAF in 2014, the leaders of the insurgency will return to Afghanistan.” -- "When ISAF troops leave the country, there will be civil war."

This is classified??

This report carries a security rating of "Duh"

[buyingsterling]

This article doesn't mention oil, gold, heroin or poppies. They won't figure in the civil war or the reasons behind it.

[Element]

The economy and political system will not immediately collapse when NATO retreats, and under Karzai's guiding hands there will be no place for crime and corruption to bloom. /sarc

Do we all rememeber the BBC myth blurb about Karzai just before he was pushed forward by the NWO to run Afghanistan? here's a recap:

From: Karzai survives to lead Afghans ; Tribal chief dodges U.S. bomb, Taliban to head government - The Sun Baltimore, Md. - Dan Fesperman - Dec 6, 2001

"... As if to drive home the point, Karzai, 46, survived the errant bomb blast yesterday that killed three U.S. soldiers in southern Afghanistan. Encamped with about 2,000 anti-Taliban fighters north of Kandahar, Karzai reportedly was struck in the face by flying debris, though his injuries were superficial. Karzai has been preparing for this role for years, mostly by working closely with his father, Abdul Ahad Karzai, who served in the Afghan Senate during the early-1970s reign of the now-exiled king, Mohammad Zahir Shah. Jailed for two years after the Soviet invasion, the elder Karzai eventually left Afghanistan and became a fixture in exile politics in Pakistan. Karzai crossed the border into southern Afghanistan on Oct. 8, the day after the United States launched airstrikes against the Taliban. Meeting secretly with village leaders and tribal elders, he attempted to rally political opposition in provincial areas just north of Kandahar. But his mission soon became one of survival when he and 100 supporters were attacked by several hundred Taliban fighters. Karzai's group survived a 10-hour running battle and a wearying 18- hour retreat before he resumed his village-by-village pilgrimage. ..."

http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/93661597.html?dids=93661597:9...

So the NWO + MSM dressed Karzai up as a patriotic war hero (rather than a CIA Stooge) but this quote is even more interesting (from Wikipedia);

After obtaining his Master's degree in India he moved to neighboring Pakistan to work as a fundraiser for the anti-communist mujahideen during the 1980s Soviet war in Afghanistan.[8] The Mujahideens were backed by the United States, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Iran, and Karzai was a secret contact for the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) at the time.[9] While Karzai remained in Pakistan during the Soviet occupation,[10] his siblings emigrated to the United States.[8] ...

... When the Taliban emerged in the mid 1990s, Karzai initially recognized them as a legitimate government because he thought that they would stop the violence and corruption in his country.[13] He was asked by the Taliban to serve as their ambassador but he refused, telling friends that he felt Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) was wrongly using them.[1] He lived in Pakistan as among the Afghan refugees, where he worked to reinstate former Afghan King Zahir Shah. On the morning of 14 July 1999, Karzai's father, Abdul Ahad Karzai, was gunned down as he was coming home from a mosque in the city of Quetta. Reports suggest that the Taliban carried out the assassination.[1] Following this incident, Karzai decided to work closely with the United Front (Northern Alliance), which was led by Ahmad Shah Massoud. In 2000 and 2001, he traveled to Europe and the United States to help gather support for the anti-Taliban movement. In a 2002 interview Karzai stated:

American Special Forces and Hamid Karzai during Operation Enduring Freedom in October 2001.

"I considered him (Ahmad Shah Massoud) to be a very patriotic Afghan. The Taliban came and I recognized the nature of the Taliban, and their designs, or their backer's designs, whatever, the combination of it. And I began to get a lot more in touch with Ahmad Shah Massoud [yeah ... and he was like ... assasinated ... right before the invasion ... and his best mate, Karzai ends up the President instead ... ]. And I exchanged views with him and entirely supported his resistance to this creeping invasion of Afghanistan. One thing that was very similar between us was the exactness of opinions on what was going on in Afghanistan. I shared absoulutely his views on the nature of things in Afghanistan and as to who was behind the troubles in Afghanistan. ... His advice to me turned out to be very very right. He said, 'Well, don't you ever go to an urban area. As strong as you may be, you will find it difficult because there is lots of foreign hand with the Taliban, intelligence and all that. They will find you and they will make it difficult. They will make people suffer. Go to the mountains.' That's exactly what I did. But, sadly, when I did that he wasn't there. The last time I spoke with him was a week before his assassination... He was definitely assassinated by a suicide bomber that came from outside Afghanistan, that was foreign... And September 11 happened two days afterwards. So one can only draw that conclusion from the sequence of events that it was an intention... The enemies of Afghanistan organized the assassination. In my position, I will not be able to go beyond it – the enemies of Afghanistan."[14] —Hamid Karzai, 2002

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hamid_Karzai

Karzai was put into power by the CIA after 9-11, and that CIA plan to put him there, pre-dated 9-11. This train had already left the station BEFORE the twin-towers fell.

Recent headlines:

Afghanistan says it will need outside aid until 2025 Afghans need decade of help, Karzai says before Bonn talks

The west will be unable to even help itself within that time window and no one will give a toss about the fete of Afghanistan, especially of Hamid Karzai.

[StychoKiller]

OT: To the webmaster -- the title bar of icons on the comments box is missing, the comments box spans the entire width of the screen, and the Rating button and the Green/Up arrows have changed in behavior.
It used to be that clicking on the green/red arrows would reload(?) the page then return back to the comment one had clicked on. Now, the page reloads(?) and one is forced to find the comment that was rated -- what gives?
IMHO, Javascript is highly overrated and should be avoided whenever possible!

[Silverballs]

Prediction: the Anglo-American establishment never leaves afghanistan

[onlooker]

If we leave Afghanistan, will we stop the flow of money to them? Will we stop the flow of money to Pakistan now that the Paks have “come out”.

The second thing that annoys me is the treatment of women. No doubt the treatment of children is as bad or worse, at least by voiced Americans standards.

However, if we Americans look at the treatment of elderly women and the looting of estates, the horrible treatment, and a lawyer system that IMO facilitates the IMO criminal process that may be common in many states, we would do whatever possible to hide those facts and situations from the Muslim Nations and “primitive” civilizations like Afghanistan.

Our glass house has dirty windows not only in the financial sector, but in the shadows of the “system”.

[Iconoclast]

The monumental waste of human effort and life this exercise has been is gut wrenching and pitiful in equal measures. The anachronism FUBAR doesn't do the situation justice. To have spent over $1 trillion to invent a conflict out of nothing, to then go on to achieve absolutely nothing is terrifying given how it reveals the extent to which tptb will unleash their 'madness' in order to keep their vision of world order intact..

[BigJim]

"After the end of the occupation by the ISAF in 2014, the leaders of the insurgency, who have fled to Pakistan, will return to Afghanistan.”

O, Gee, I guess we'd better go and invade Pakistan, then!

Then, in another ten years time, it will be announced:

"After the end of the occupation by the ISAF in 2024, the leaders of the insurgency, who have fled to Tajikistan, will return to Pakistan.” etc, etc.

[HungrySeagull]

That is "FEUDING" for centuries.

This should settle it.

[masterinchancery]

Civil war? Nothing new here.

[Lord Welligton]

Afghanistan is the country where a young rape victim named Gulnaz was thrown in jail for adultery because she refused to marry her attacker.

Why is that Americas problem?

[Lucius Corneliu...]

Why is any of it our problem?  The military should never have gone in there in the first place.  It started as a CIA/special ops campaign and should have remained one.

[Bananamerican]

nein mensch,

it began as it will end, as a lucrative piggy trough for well-connected MIC hog$...

Freedom aint free ya know...and It certainly isn't CHEAP

[Bicycle Repairman]

"classified documents surfaced in Germany that predicted a dire future for Afghanistan after the departure of NATO troops."

Worse than the dire present?

[bill1102inf]

Ah yes, Afghanistan, I remember it fondly, not....  Where 99% of the worlds OPIUM is produced and sold to the West in order to fund the Taliban/Al Quada/Terrorists - Thank the CIA for that one folks.  Lets pull out already and let the country fall back into the prehistoric shithole it was before we got there.  The highest level of technology in Afghanistan is a 9Volt battery that we brought there!

[StychoKiller]

About a year ago, there was an article in the Socialist/Progressive "Newsweek" rag, critiquing the US efforts in Afghanistan. The most appalling anecdote in the article (from a civilizational viewpoint), concerned the training efforts for Afghan policemen:
After building a new police station (with indoor plumbing),
TPTB were surprised to find that the toilets were backed up due to the Afghan practice of wiping their @sses with round, flat rocks and flushing them in said toilets!

My take: If the Afghan police can't even learn how to wipe their @sses in a modern fashion, let alone show up for work without being stoned on opium, or selling their weapons and ammo to the Taliban, then civilization has no place in Afghanistan -- "The Prime Directive" from Star Trek springs to mind here -- we're better off just funding around 20 warlords with around a $Billion/year to keep the country and the Taliban locked into perpetual civil war -- viva Chaosistan!

[Bansters-in-my-...]

So this means that Council on Foriegn Relations mebers (CFR),will be there,along with Trilateral Commission members.and Bilderberg members .

These NGO's are the ones that run the world.

If you do not know who they are, and who they represent,please take the time to find out,and spread the word.

[Reptil]

Of course the germans are wondering: Why are we the USA's bitch, and doing the dirty work?

Reasons for occupying (pun intended) Afghanistan:
- Geo Political (encroaching China)
- Strategic (large rare earth and metal deposits)
- Opium production for flow of cash (CIA) and supply to various countries (=influence)
- Huge profits militairy industry

- BS story to keep the american public in the dark about their own sad state of affairs.

They (the people that control NATO) don't give one flying fuck about raped girls or proliference of Islam. They care about what they control.

I wouldn't dismiss german intelligence reports out of hand, they're consistently accurate.
Also check Tarpley; he's got quite good intelligence about this region.
cue socialist marching music in 3, 2, 1, ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q3Q6P6JOyJE

[Mr.Kowalski]

Afghanistan has been the graveyard of foreign armies near and wide for centuries. It's time to leave and let the Paks try their hand. A new Northern Aliance with India helping will form to oppose them. The ark Ages will never leave this poor tortured land. 

[bill1102inf]

THat is an enourmous fallacy.  The united states military could wipe Afghanistan clean of any and all population in aprox 10 days, WE just don't have the balls (or the reason) to do so.

[Totentänzerlied]

But then who would tend our poppy fields or justify our wealth redistribution scheme known as the defense budget?

[Vlad Tepid]

And China could do the same to the US in 10 days.  And France could do it to Spain and South Africa could do it to Zim...never mind, you get the point.  Since mass genocide and thermonuclear war is off the table, we're back to the fact that Af/Pak is the graveyard of empires.  It is not a fallacy.  In fact, we're about to see just how true it is.

[non_anon]

our dear leaders have lead us into the graveyard of empires

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/57411/milton-bearden/afghanistan-graveyard-of-empires

[Freddie]

Afghanistan is the country where a young rape victim named Gulnaz was thrown in jail for adultery because she refused to marry her attacker.

Islam. A lot of dumb fkks in the USA voted for one in 2008.  Afghanistan has been a hell hole for 1,000+ years and always will be a hell hole.

[Vlad Tepid]

Even Alexander the Great go there and was like, "What the fuck am I doing here? Let's go back to the ocean."

[Optimusprime]

Very odd post.  If you really support Ron Paul's sensible notion of getting the hell out of Afghanistan, then why the crocodile tears for the afghan girl? There are stories equally heat-rending in every country, including the US and Germanyand you know it.  The specific contexts may differ, but "homo homini lupus" is what we all must deal with. 

Do you really imagine that her suffering eclipses the suffering of the thousands terrorized, killed, maimed, burnt by our disgustingly hypocritical "humanitarian" mission? 

[BigJim]

His point was that despite our invading ten years ago, women are still treated like shit - by the very people we installed.

[fajensen]

Why the fuck is that such a surprise?

The Afghan constitution happens to be based on shariah law, as it is in Iraq. Introduced by "us", defended and paid for by the lives of our soldiers. Most of the people "we" installed, were exiled - for good reasons.

[apberusdisvet]

Our troops are in Afghanistan primarily to ensure that the opium proceeds wind up in CIA coffers to fund all the "humanitarian" interventions.  I have seen numerous photos of GIs guarding the poppy fields.

The banksters use the CIA and the US military as their enforcement arm.  See how many generals and executive level spooks are Bilderburgs, on the CFR and members of the Trilateral Commission; just one big happy family of war-mongering psychopaths.

[Money 4 Nothing]

Poppy and the US Govt.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vQR2z4YCzDw

[weinerdog43]

I read the title of this article twice to be certain.  'Afghanistan: There will be civil war.'  My response is:

"I don't give a shit about Afghanistan."

[falak pema]

every where where uncle sam has installed a surrogate regime there will be civil war. It is the best marker to understand our age. 'Cos is all based on fake 'democracy'. 

[DavidPierre]

Afghanistan: "There IS Civil War"

Fixed it for y'all.

[Money Squid]

"They been civil war'n for cenuties, aint gonna stop now"

fixed it for ya

[bank guy in Brussels]

The West is not so far from the 'Taliban'. Rape victims have not always been treated kindly or respectfully in the West, right down to today.

The crazy Americans prohibited essentially all alcohol for 14 years, 1920-33, and still have all sorts of ridiculous laws on the books regarding private behaviour in many US states.

It wasn't too long ago in the West, that various kinds of things were done in the name of extremist forms of Christian religion, regarding behaviour.

Now especially in Europe, we are easygoing tolerant Enlightenment people, and many of us Christians are quite Enlightened, but it was a long road getting here for the West as a whole.

The word 'Taliban' means 'students'. Not bad for some 'students' to defeat the most powerful empire in the world, as Afghanis have in the past defeated so many others.

The former head of state of Afghanistan, Mullah Omar, the 'Shadow', has still never been found 10 years after the Americans invaded. Mullah Omar is well-hidden and protected by his peoples, against all the modern resources of the mega-empire trying to destroy him. It is an immense achievement, impossible if he was not truly well-supported by the people of his society.

Though we should not shy away from upholding Enlightenment culture, we should respect the people of Afghanistan, both for their bravery and courage as warriors, and their desire for independence from outsiders. And we should acknowledge that many have been the victim of terrible crimes by Nato and Western forces.

[Freddie]

Our banker friend in Belgium is probably that Belge prick Van Rumpouy.  We should have let the Germans keep Belgium. 

Brussels = the as*hole of the world where the corrupt EUSSR fascists & pedophiles are HQ'ed. 

[Optimusprime]

Good post.  What idiots gave you red marks?

[Hedgetard55]

Idiots that have two brain cells to rub together, faggot.

[Below Zero]

As a banker shouldn't you be busy looting the public instead of comparing Americans to the Taliban? Obviously your "Enlightenment" is gaseous in nature and flows from your ass.

[Manthong]

After we bail out, the Chinese should have to wear radiation suits to get at the rare earths and uranium in the mines they now deals for.

[RafterManFMJ]

Hold on a minute! We're still in Afghanastan? You gotta be shittin' me! I thought we won years ago, back when I was in junior high.

[Totentänzerlied]

And all buyers of products containing those materials should have to pay 500% more?

[covert]

every civil war is always the result of subversion.

http://expose2.wordpress.com