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After Warning Of Italy Woes Nearly Two Years Ago, No One Should Be Surprised As It Implodes Bringing The EU With It

Reggie Middleton's picture




 
So, Italy Sells 5-Year Bonds as Yield Surges to a Eurozone record and the inevitable continues to unfold as nearly all market participants continue to ignore basic arithmetic and common sense. Bloomberg reports:

Italy sold 3 billion euros ($4 billion) of five-year bonds, the maximum target, at the highest yield in more than 14 years as Mario Monti seeks to form a new government to restore investor confidence in public finances.

The
Rome-based Treasury sold the bonds to yield 6.29 percent, the highest
since June 1997 and up from 5.32 percent at the last auction on Oct. 13.
Demand was 1.47 times the amount on offer, compared with 1.34 times
last month.

... Monti, 68, accepted a mandate from President Giorgio Napolitano yesterday to succeed Silvio Berlusconi,
who resigned as premier on Nov. 12 after defections eroded his
parliamentary majority and the country’s 10-year bond yield surged over
the 7 percent threshold that prompted Greece, Ireland and Portugal to seek bailouts. The yield on Italy’s benchmark 10-year bond was 6.4 percent at 11:15 a.m. in Rome after the auction, down from a euro-era record of 7.48 percent on Nov. 9.

Italy
was forced to pay 6.087 percent on one-year bills at an auction on Nov.
10, the most in more than 14 years, amid the worsening European debt
crisis. Monti, an economist and former adviser to Goldman Sachs Group
Inc., will try to reassure investors that Italy can cut a 1.9
trillion-euro debt and spur economic growth that has lagged behind the
euro-region average for more than a decade.

The country faces about 200 billion euros in bond maturities next year, more than twice as much as Spain,
which has also seen yields surge on fallout from the debt crisis. The
first bond redemption comes on Feb. 1, when Italy must pay back 26
billion euros for debt sold 10 years ago.

Whoa.. This was hard to see coming, wasn't it? Yeah, right. BoomBustBlog subscribers reference the explicit warning from early 2010 -

File Icon Italy public finances projection.

These severe devaluation in bonds definitely do take their toll, and not just on those who gorged on Grecian debt, as Bloomberg also reports UniCredit Posts a Record $14.5 Billion Loss on Impairments; Shares Tumble:

UniCredit SpA (UCG),
Italy’s biggest bank, posted a record loss of 10.6 billion euros ($14.5
billion) in the third quarter after writing down goodwill on
acquisitions and investments.

The stock fell as much as 9.6 percent as UniCredit
unveiled a plan to raise as much as 7.5 billion euros by selling
shares. The company took an impairment of 8.7 billion euros as it wrote
off goodwill on purchases in Ukraine and Kazakhstan, UniCredit said in a statement today. The bank said it will exit non- strategic units, without elaborating.

Wider spreads on government bonds
contributed to a 285 million-euro trading loss, the company said. The
lender also scrapped its dividend for this year and plans 5,200 job cuts
through 2015. UniCredit is raising money as it faces the biggest capital shortfall among Italy’s lenders, as ranked by the European Banking Authority last month.

“Our
decision to write down the goodwill of several brands and to raise
capital will reinforce the bank from both a balance-sheet and capital
point of view,” Chief Executive Officer Federico Ghizzoni told reporters in Milan.

UniCredit shares were 6.3 percent lower at 77.3 cents as of 3:34 p.m. Milan time.

The
lender said the goodwill charges won’t affect UniCredit’s cash and
capital positions. UniCredit’s loan-loss provisions rose to 1.85 billion
euros in the quarter from 1.63 billion euros a year earlier. Revenue
declined 11 percent to 5.7 billion euros in the quarter.

The stock sale is part of UniCredit’s new business plan, which targets net income of 6.5 billion euros by 2015.

 Wow! What a surprise... Oh, my mistake... From Subscriber download dated February 2010,File Icon Italian Banking Macro-Fundamental Discussion Note, page 7 - Italian banks at risk!

You
see, this is the problem. This Pan-European debacle has been moving in
relatively slow motion and was very, very easily foreseeable. As a
matter of fact, I have called it with nigh unerring precision from the
first quarter of 2010. Reference the series of 40 or so articles
starting in January of 2010, together known as Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis.

In The Coming Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis, dated Sunday, 07 February 2010 (please take notice of the date),
I introduced the crisis and identified it as a pan-European problem,
not a localized one. You see, the media and the sell side attempted to
make this all about Greece when the reality of the matter was that it was anything but. This is a Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis, not a Greek, Irish or even Italian debt crisis. As excerpted:

Much
of the analysis that I have seen fails to put enough weight on the bad
loan/NPA issue in each country's respective banking system, which
essentially is the cause of most of the countries' particular malaise to
begin with. I have thrown together a crude, rudimentary chart to put
this into perspective...

image021.pngimage021.pngimage021.png

When
comparing these sovereigns using metrics that encompass more than the
usual suspects, you get a clearer picture. The bank bailouts were
expensive, arguably too expensive. It may have been better to let them
fail in the market and nationalize them. Notice how the nations with the
highest NPAs are doing the worst. In addition, one should remain
cognizant that the "extend and pretend" game has allowed hundreds of
billions of "phantom" NPAs to roam free in each of these countries' GDPs
unrecorded. I believe there may be some surprises left in quite a few
of the German banks. We will probably see if I'm right over the next few
quarters. See German
Recovery Stalls Unexpectedly in Fourth Quarter:German gross domestic
product showed no growth in the final quarter of last year, official
data showed on Friday, leaving Europe's largest economy on a weak
footing going into 2010.

 And you wonder what happend to Unicredit???

In the piece What Country is Next in the Coming Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis?, dated Tuesday, 09 February 2010 (please take notice of the date) – I illustrated the potential for the domino effect, as excerpted:

 It is beyond a hallucinogenic-induced pipe dream to even consider that the Eurozone
will come out of this attempt at replicating the US "extend and
pretend" policy intact and unscathed. The mere concept of global equity
rallies should have macro traders and fundamental investors chomping at
the bit. The US won't even get away with it, and we have the world's
reserve currency printing press in our basement running with an
ink-based, inter-cooled, twin-turbo supercharger strapped on that will
make those German engineers green with envy, not to mention green with
splattered printer ink as the presses go berserk!

In
part 2 of my series on the Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis, we will
review Italy and Ireland in comparison to the whipping child of the
media - Greece (see "The Coming Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis" for part one covering Greece and Spain along with tear sheets for the Spanish banks at risk for subscribers).

Click to enlarge...

italy_-_ireland.pngitaly_-_ireland.pngitaly_-_ireland.png

As seen above, Italy's gross debt as a % of GDP is worse than that of Greeces. Spain's stuctural
balance is nearly as bad as Greece's and their GDP is heading backwards
at a faster rate than Greece. Spain's high unemployment trumps all in
the comparison, with Ireland coming a close second. Despite all of this,
Greece has two to three times the CDS spread. Greece is a dress
rehearsal for sovereign debt failure in several larger countries.
Ireland is in very bad shape, and the UK is heavily levered into Ireland
through the banking system and bonds (to the tune of $190 billion+)
which exacerbates the issues that the UK already has (we will get to
this in a future post). Spain and Italy combined are a sizeable chunk of
the entire EU, and they are at risk. I say this just to keep things in
perspective. We still have at least 9 or 10 more nations to review, and
it doesn't necessarily get any better from here.

The worst has yet to come. With
nearly all of Europe's banking system in the toilet, and roughly half a
trillion Euros of mortgage loans coming due for rollover on a property
market that is currently underwater with increasing vacancies, softening
rents and a fukked macro outlook, pray tell what do you think will come of it?

Reggie Middleton Featured in Property EU, one of Europes leading real estate publicatios

Those who wish to download the full article in PDF format can do so here: Reggie Middleton on Stagflation, Sovereign Debt and the Potential for bank Failure at the ING ACADEMY-v2.

Of course, you can bet the farm on the industry group that will be hit second hardest by all of this, and yet somehow has not recieved nearly enough attention. Stay tuned, collapses commencing shortly. BoomBustBlog subscribers should hit the professional (professional only) addendum to the (all paying subscribers) icon Sovereign Debt Exposure of European Debt Exposed Industry (439.61 kB 2010-05-19 01:56:52) which can be found online here: Sovereign Debt Exposure Worksheets - Professional. I will be updating this list within a week.

 

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Mon, 11/14/2011 - 16:14 | 1876686 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

You the man REggie!!!

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 16:59 | 1876939 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

G-Damn Reggie, how the hell are we supposed to feel good when you keep bringing this reality shit up?

 

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 16:52 | 1876679 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Brillo Reggio  ;)

I was reading Martin Armstrong last night and he was going through all the worlds previous, historical, banking failures. 

One point he made very strongly was banking collapses are almost never national events but international (even going back 2 Centuries). One nations banks fail and it usually leads to another countries banks taking it right between the legs

His other point is nobody (politicians, economists, other gob-shites) understands capital flows internationally. They judge policies and actions by local events without understanding Banking and stock market collapses usually are a result of international capital taking flight for the safety exits ......to other countries (as Switzerland has found out to its huge cost being crammed with foreign capital parked for safety)

PS. where precisely is your puts/calls advise? Any chance you could email your retail and Pro customers because i've no idea where to find it! 

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 14:48 | 1876258 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Is this why the Eye Talians are driving up to Switzerland and buying bars of Gold?

Don't the Roamns know, "You can't eat gold."

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 14:14 | 1876146 butchee
butchee's picture

Reggie!  Reggie!  Reggie!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1hNJLVQNhhE&feature=related

You da best man!

 

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 13:48 | 1876077 Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

Incredibly cogent argumentation as always but I would be grateful if you would summarize the investment implications of all this for mere mortals like me in 2 sentences.

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 16:23 | 1876748 besodemuerte
besodemuerte's picture

You have this site confused with CNBC.

Nobody can perfectly predict what will happen when this shitstorm finally solidifies, especially since politicians today are such lunatics that it's impossible to predict what stunt they'll pull next.  The best you can do is stick with time-tested strategies in that tangible stuff holds value, and pieces of paper don't.

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 14:11 | 1876137 IAmNotMark
IAmNotMark's picture

Be afraid.  Be very afraid.

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 13:58 | 1876099 reload
reload's picture

How about, short banks and CRE for starters?

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