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The Anatomy of a Tech Giant's Fall From Grace: Research in Motion's Problems Are Far From Over

Reggie Middleton's picture




 
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Tue, 07/26/2011 - 13:20 | 1495045 Fat Ass
Fat Ass's picture

Good grief.  It's so embarassing seeing Reggie trying to talk out of the Apple Catastrophe (aka the "Reggie loves the Android Interface" fiasco).

First there was the "I didn't actually say that."

Then there was the (bizarre) "That wasn't actual advice, um, paywall something something !"

Now there is the gibberish above.

it's really sad.

As has been said endlessly by many commentors here: it's just so sad to see an otherwise very wise newsletter tout, gabble on about something he knows nothing about.

BUT WAIT -- a new addendum from Reggie above.  "Eventually Apple price will go down - maybe in a year or two.  And then, you'll all see how right I was."

Sad isn't it?

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 12:22 | 1494789 Sutton
Sutton's picture

I love the BB keyboard.

Must have for me.

But I'm a real man, not some hipster Apple fag.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:39 | 1494629 bill1102inf
bill1102inf's picture

iphones touch screen is 10000000x better than the 'keypad' , grow up

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:31 | 1494584 escargot
escargot's picture

The only reason RIM hasn't fallen quicker is because they had such a large share of the market to begin with.  The people running that company just don't get it.  The web browser sucks, plain and simple.  As much as I like my BB for the keypad (I hate the touch-screens), I'm planning on ditching it eventually because the video playback is maddening and browsing is practically impossible.  I sold at 72.  Too bad I bought at 78.  DOH!

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:04 | 1494417 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

sorry reggie, you built a monument on your apple call, credibility lost, i tried to warn you...

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:42 | 1494642 Reggie Middleton
Reggie Middleton's picture

The have been 3 or 4 commenters with similar comments. It is perspectives such as yours that will make Apple such a good short when the time comes. You see, you TOTA?LY ignore facts and run purely on emotion and dedication to Apple. Thus far Apple has peformed precisely as I said it would, including last quarte wher I said the sell side will low ball and I came in with closer esti,ates as Apple blows past inept estimates. 

Apple has lost market shar to Android precisely as I said it would, and has gottenmore aggressive for business, precisely as I said it would. 

i said they will suffer from margin compression and it should become apparent in 4-6 quartes.

I was not short Apple last year and speculated a little this year for aa small gain.

if there is no additional sign of my knowing what I am talking about besides success with RIM, Google, market share forecasts, the fate of Nokia, Apple trends (obviously thatnis not enough for those who ignore facts and reality), then come see me in the 3rd quarte of next year to see if i was wrong, once.

You Apple fanatics, combined with the fact that every fund in the world is stuffed tomthe gills with this stuff willnset upnthe sjort of the lifetime when its time to get out of the position from the long side.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 14:14 | 1495238 Dburn
Dburn's picture

What emotion? I look at at a clean balance sheet with increasing gross margins on the Income statement. 77B in cash is a weapon in the right hands and it is in the right hands. Apple won a broad patent on smart phone and iPad tech and successfully sued HTC which makes the most smart phones of any manufacturer for infringing on two if it's patents. The damages have yet to be determined but  you can bet that there will be a substantial revenue stream from licensing as management at Apple knows they can't sell everyone, but they will make it significantly less attractive for smart phone makers.

You have been doing beautifully in the areas of expertise you have in real estate. I loved that video you had /picture gallery of the unsold condo glut in NYC. But, Tech is a whole different animal. There are assets that can't be quantified on a balance sheet. No matter how much you try to quantify why Apple will lose and it will be the greatest short...uh...in time, you have been consistently wrong every time. Your rush to judgement each time the stock dipped was quickly stuffed when the stock made new highs, not because of emotion but as a result of hyper growth in revenue, gross margins, cash and net margins. Pull the company name and it's CEO out and apply the same standards to a Fortune 500 company and tell me you would be  shorting it.

Admit you have been wrong and will continue to be until your not and people will think much more highly of you. No one ever is right 100% of the time and as you should well know, timing is everything in the market. If they eventually turn into a flat return stock like WalMart or even Microsoft you still would be able to say you were right. Get over it and start running some columns on the topics we depend on you for and stop with your ego driven emotional involvement of Apple.

How about big Pharma who has a record amount of blockbusters going off patent in the next year or two? I checked the charts on sales and revenue of products that go off patent and no one buys the drug for it's brand name. There is a trillion dollars worth of market cap between the majors . Apply some of your expertise there.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 12:36 | 1494835 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

With all due respect Reggie, I think some of us have been following Google and APPL a little bit longer than your posting history on the subject.

I for one can remember being told I was foolish for thinking Apple was a buy back in 2002. And that was just the hardware I was talking about.

I can also recall asking my IT people to put my phone on the network in 2008, long before Android was little more than a pipe dream.

If Android is making inroads against Rim it is because iPhone exposed the blackberry for the glorified paging system that it is.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 12:26 | 1494813 hannah
hannah's picture

RIM and AAPL have been the tools the fed/banks use to pump the market...forget market fundamentals. all the 'good' for both these companies has been thru gov intervention. apple isnt selling macs...they are selling 'every ipad they can make'....yes...to the government thru schools.

AAPL is BS and RIM with its channel stuffing has been BS for years. at least the apple products work most of the time but still are way over priced for todays economy.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 12:03 | 1494729 taraxias
taraxias's picture

awesome post 

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:54 | 1494367 poggi
poggi's picture

When corporate dudes and dudettes were carrying a BB paid for the by enterprise and an iPhone paid for out of pocket, RIM should have got the message and tried to be the "one" phone.  Too late.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:47 | 1494331 chrispycrunch
chrispycrunch's picture

RIM really ought to get more competitive in the consumer space, and offer a more compelling deal than its competitors. They can't sell a torch for a premium price because the device is slower and buggier.

 

What they should do is offer combo deals and take on the mid-market. Given the choice between having blackberry and BBM for the family at a more reasonable monthly than a data-guzzling smartphone from iphone or android, many would opt for the first option. Thing is, that family option ain't there so RIM will just see its market share erode in the U.S.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:40 | 1494302 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

CNBC and every major media joint have been screaming about RIMM for the past 9 months.

With RIMM having their own frequencies in the world's major markets and the most secure information transmission is a valuable strategic asset - and impossible for the competition to emulate now.

With 41 million subscribers (up 64% y/y) they are still formidable players. 

Let's watch this one play out. 

 

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:39 | 1494299 oddjob
oddjob's picture

Reg you clearly stated in past posts you were never short rimm, now this.

Research in Motion has been one of the most successful tech shorts of this blog's history

Its never too late to stop lying.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 09:58 | 1494120 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

my local restaurant has been running a special on BLACKBERRY JAM - coincidence? I leave it for you to decide

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:18 | 1494203 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

There'll be blackberry jam long after BB is synonymous with dodo.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 09:51 | 1494105 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

Hey Joe, is that a smart phone you have there or a margin compressor?

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 09:47 | 1494091 Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

Excellent as always, Reggie!

 

This thing is far from over. Not until at least 2 years after the iPhone went to VZW can we look to see the number of former BB users who ditched for an iPhone or Android. My unofficial survey of people I know is close to 70% that either have, or plan to ditch BB as soon as their contract is up. The other approximate 30% have a company issued BB so they don't care becasue they don't pay for it.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 12:06 | 1494738 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

I don't know anyone who has a BB unless it was supplied by their company. 

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 13:46 | 1495140 equity_momo
equity_momo's picture

This is RIMMS major Achilles Heel.  With UE in white collar jobs about to catch up with main street in the next year or two , BB users will plummet - everyone uses Apple now for their p/a phone and the days of 2 p/a phones is long gone.

RIMM relies on big business too much.

I would switch back to BB if they could fix their web browsing though, its just terrible. I do hate the I PHone for messaging , touch screen typing will never be as smooth as a key pad regardless how good Apple are.

RIMM should be developing a killer phone/tablet , with a keypad and solid browser at a great price and steal Apple customers as the job layoffs come. Apple is 9/10ths BS marketting , people are hoodwinked by the cult and believe its a far superior product.  Theyre good but only because competitors have dropped the ball.

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