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Apple vs Netflix-Why is Apple showing signs of “fatigue”?

thetrader's picture




 

By www.thetrader.se

They make the best Laptop, they make the best phone, they make the best tablet. Everything they make, is the best. They also have more cash than many countries can dream of. Apple is the best, but it is always the hardest task, to stay at the top.

 

Of course Apple is different to the (the new dog) Netflix, but the human psychology behind some charts is the same. Greed of not riding the winner. Apple is overowned and loved by everybody, wonder just what the “sudden” fatigue in the share price is telling us. You can have an iPad, iphone, iMac. You can even replace these must have gadgets, but at what pace? Unless they come up with an iCar, things could start turning around. Watch out, as the stock could fall fast and furiously. Below charts, judge yourself, if this time is different, or not?

As Einstein said; “There are only two things indefinite, the Universe, and the stupidity of people”.

 

 

Apple

 

 

Netflix

 

 

 

If the above happens in Apple, then we will probably see SPX in the process of forming this big Sell Off Formation.

 

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Thu, 09/29/2011 - 18:30 | 1724058 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

I-don't-give-a-shit (Idgas)! How can people waste so much time over an electronic gadget with the problems we have in this country and the world! Get an I-Life (Intense Life)!

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 19:17 | 1724154 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

The future of US markets is in the hands of a friggin' toy company?

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 18:22 | 1724043 caerus
caerus's picture

not that interested in aapl's cultural significance...as far as the trade goes, when es breaks aapl's going to 360 rather quickly...

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 18:13 | 1724024 dumpster
dumpster's picture

apple is like gold  lol

 

doesnt pay dividends and hard to really eat or as dennenger would say have a tidy bit of sex on the side with the machine .

 

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 17:48 | 1723959 Quantum Nucleonics
Quantum Nucleonics's picture

You won't see Apple fall off the cliff like Netflix.  Yea, it will trade down from $400 as a recession bites into consumer sales, but aside from the fact that they are both the favorite stocks of the mo-mo crowd, they are not very similar.  Apple sells stuff, lots and lots of it, and they do it at obsene profit margins.  Their products can't be easily copied... ask RIM and HP.  Netflix loses money and has no profit margin.  Their hot product, streaming video, is done for free by others.  Netflix was a great short from $300.  Apple might be a short at $400, but it ain't gonna trade down 50% like NFLX.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 17:25 | 1723883 mind_imminst
mind_imminst's picture

I have to admit that Apple makes good stuff, and they have a religious customer base that will buy I-thingies no matter the cost. I just don't think the Apple church can expand much farther. In a deflationary environment, marginal buyers will go with Android and Amazon products (IMO). Stock price reflects growth. Apple's growth will slow, the stock will drop, but it is still a well run company and they will continue to make functional pretty products. I doubt the stock will get "rocked" but the money-making investing party is over.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 17:54 | 1723967 D.M.
D.M.'s picture

I know Apple fanboys and it's less of a Church and more of an admiration of the "good stuff" that they design. I see them continuing to grow in sales volume in the mobile arena (Smartphone/Tablet) and the PC market regardless of what their stock is valued at. 

As far as stocks go, if Apple falls dramatically it will be because the whole market did. The trillions of fiat being pumped into the worlds markets are leading us to potentially the biggest bubble the world has ever seen.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 17:08 | 1723801 no2foreclosures
no2foreclosures's picture

The problem with graphs is that they can lie.  The Apple one spans over more than 2 year while the Netflix one is just over 1 year.  And who knows if the price axes is of the same magnitude (scale).  To compare Apple to Netflix would be like comparing Sony to Adobe.  Apples and lemons.  One actually manufactures real things, while the latter is in the distribution business whether of dvds or bits.  Totally different business models.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 17:24 | 1723866 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

I agree with you in spirit. However, as this market has clearly shown...everything moves as one. Regardless of profitability, PE or whatever.

One thing to consider with AAPL: I know a few people that have been holding AAPL for the better part of 3 years now. They are sitting on massive gains, in the ballpark of 200%. They have all mentioned taking the profits and putting it to work on other more beaten up stocks once the market takes a dump, which many expect (myself included). This is in no way a criticism of AAPL. It is just a pragmatic observation that your chances of seeing another 200% gain with AAPL at $350 are not nearly as good as your chances of seeing it with, for example, Ford at $5-$7...and I do think we will see Ford trading in that range again...if not lower.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 23:51 | 1724775 no2foreclosures
no2foreclosures's picture

If they had invested in gold bullion, they would have more than doubled their investment in the last 3 years, with more probability of further increases as the financial Ponzi schemes implode. Time to sell some Apple stock for gold.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 17:07 | 1723797 Mike2756
Mike2756's picture

p/e wise, even if aapl earnings have peaked, i doubt it's the next nflx. if anything, amzn looks like it's about to be netflix'd.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 19:27 | 1724179 obejoyful
obejoyful's picture

AMZN seems to me as being the next nflx.  Aug 08 I bought 20k in AMZN puts and made 210k by the mid oct. That was a fantastic ride.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:59 | 1723769 stocksugg
stocksugg's picture

Momemtum stocks hedge fund blow up

With the massive downdraft in momentum stocks today there has been speculation of a hedge fund blow-up. Those rumors now appear to be centered on John Thaler's JAT Capital. While we cannot verity if these rumors are true, the fund owns many of today's worst performers.

Some of his biggest positions includes:

Sina Corp (Nasdaq: SINA) down 10%
Priceline.com (Nasdaq: PCLN) down 6%
Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) down 10%
Wynn Resorts (Nasdaq: WYNN) down 10%
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (Nasdaq: GMCR) down 9%
NetFlix (Nasdaq: NFLX) down 12%
Molycorp, Inc. (NYSE: MCP) down 5%.

You can see the entire portfolio here.

News Provided by Acquire Media Corporation

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:50 | 1723722 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

I think AAPL is a solid company but they are loved by the hedge fund and investment industry.  As the hedge funds start going under their stock is going to tank but its still a great investment if you can get in at a nice price

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:49 | 1723716 adr
adr's picture

I said they would need the iCar a week or so ago. Apple is just like Nike. Nothing more than a marketing company that claims they make products. Apple manufactures nothing just like Nike. Tell me where there is an Apple factory? Shoes that sell for $25 a pair retail at Walmart are made in the same factory using the same exact materials as $125 Nikes. It is just the brand name people are willing to pay for. Apple has a $500 billion market cap, yet employs barely anyone and has no real assets. They rent the buildings and stores they occupy. It is just a scam corporation, innovation give me a break. Apple stole every single innovation they claim to have produced. They just put a shiny coating on it.

Brands used to mean something because they actually manufactured the products they sold. Today a brand is simply a different label on the exact same batch of products from a cheap Chinese factory. People are just so fucking stupid that they actually believe there is a difference between American brands. If you took the guts from a Nokia phone from 1996, put it in an Apple case, and called it the iPhone 6, millions of people would rush out and buy it.

Women are stupid enough to pay $400 for a $15 plastic purse made in China because it has a label. They wouldn't even touch a $125 purse made out of quality materials in the USA if it didn't have Coach or Louis Vuitton on it. Half the time the fakes are actually better made than the real ones.

It is sad that people value a crap product higher than one of quality just because one has a name rich people carry on their arm.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 18:12 | 1724021 moneymutt
moneymutt's picture

why is the height of frivolity always women....Men spend hundreds of dollars to get a football jersey with another man's name on it. Men think fashion is frivolous but will buy thousands of dollars in "tools" to catch and release small fish. Men never do anything for status or image...like marry a beautiful woman that looks great on their arm but who is no fun to be around or is an idiot. Men go for the good looks over good fit everytime, and that's for a relationship, a domestic/business/raising kids partnership, major life happiness stuff, not just a few hunder dollars wasted on a logo.

Apple offers something, maybe not worth the upcharge over similar hardware, but their software design, tied in system offers convenience, nice user experience...to say Apple is just logo is too simple...I agree you can get much more value from other products, and other folks like Samsung/Google, Amazon are starting to surpass Apple, but if Apple hadn't come along, we would all still be our Blackberries and DOS desktops, Apple didn't invent GUI or Multi-Touch phones or tablets, but they pushed the market with good design, integration. They have likely peaked but they improved computers and gadgets for everyone, immensely.

 

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 17:32 | 1723913 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

No real assets? I don't know about you but where I come from, $75 billion in cash and no debt sound like pretty real assets.

As far as the product quality: I've been editing films for nearly 20 years. I've used Windows systems and I've used Mac. There is a very very profound difference in quality.

The i-phones/pads/pods I don't know or care about. I don't use or need them. But for a powerful desktop...yeah...they make a better product. Simply no comparison.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:43 | 1723681 stocksugg
stocksugg's picture

With the massive downdraft in momentum stocks today there has been speculation of a hedge fund blow-up. Those rumors now appear to be centered on John Thaler's JAT Capital. While we cannot verity if these rumors are true, the fund owns many of today's worst performers.

Some of his biggest positions includes:

Sina Corp (Nasdaq: SINA) down 10%
Priceline.com (Nasdaq: PCLN) down 6%
Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) down 10%
Wynn Resorts (Nasdaq: WYNN) down 10%
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (Nasdaq: GMCR) down 9%
NetFlix (Nasdaq: NFLX) down 12%
Molycorp, Inc. (NYSE: MCP) down 5%.

You can see the entire portfolio here.

News Provided by Acquire Media Corporation

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:34 | 1723536 D.M.
D.M.'s picture

Duplicate - Anyone know how to delete comments?

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:54 | 1723749 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Write something witty in the space. ;-)

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:16 | 1723535 D.M.
D.M.'s picture

I don't understand why so many people here are iBitter, Apple makes great products and you guys are just hating on the top dog. 

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 17:12 | 1723816 Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

I'm not ibitter, I'm ipoorer, I've own so many of the other ishit computer stuff. I'm not going to pay top dollar for anything that take a big shit, lying dead on the floor. I've bought all pc shit and if it falls, it takes quick trip to the dump, alone with toasters, dryers and any other "UNPREDICTABLE" product.

And when the fuck has value in this stock market made any difference????

The top dog is always threatened when money flows to fellow criminals and their failed organizations. ANd just think how much jig they get for cutting your value investor balls off??

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 17:05 | 1723791 adr
adr's picture

Do you really believe that? Some people hate it just because of top dog status but I have hated products since the early 1990s. The iMac was the biggest piece of shit computer to ever get a power cord. Apple has always used proprietary connections and made it impossible to buy off the shelf components to repair its computers until very recently. People used to call me to fix Macs but I had to tell them I couldn't because I couldn't buy parts to fix them and if I opened the computer I could get fined by Apple for not being a licensed Apple repair man. Apple has always charged more than necessary because Steve Blojobs believes you should pay more for his products because he is a genius and you are privileged just to have the right to own something created by him.

The actual computer components in the iPhone are garbage compared to a Samsung or LG phone. Check out an iFixit tear down of one of Apple's crappy products. You'll find substandard components and a pricetag around $30 for something they sell for $400. You pay a price for Apple's use of cheap Chinese labor.

There is nothing Apple makes that can't be replaced by any other product on the market. If you took a Sony laptop and stuck an Apple logo on it, everyone would proclaim that is the best computer. Apple loyalists are just as blind as US domestic car loyalists. They crap all over a Korean car from Hyundai made in America yet applaud the Korean made Chevy cars because they have a bowtie on them. To them anything with a Chevy logo is an American car even if there isn't a single American made component.

Did you know you can buy a Foxconn computer? It is made in the same factory as a Macbook using the same internal components. It just doesn't have a fancy Apple logo. If given the choice would you buy the Foxconn over the Apple saving yourself over $1000 dollars? Or is it that Apple logo that really matters?

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 17:40 | 1723937 D.M.
D.M.'s picture

It's not about pledging allegience to a brand, it's about finding a product that meets a person requirements and standards. 

People like Apple's asthetic, build quality and simplicity and are willing to pay a premium for it. If not the market would have spoken and Apple would be done for. The internal compentents are a moot point because everyone gets their components from Foxconn, Samsung, etc.

 

 

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:54 | 1723737 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

If its so great, why did I stop going to app store a year ago? Every single app I have has an upgrade, for iOS 4. I have an iTouch 3 that cannot utilize iOS 4, given the new hardware in the iTouch 4.

Soooo... I can break my iTouch by upgrading to an OS I can't use, so I can upgrade my apps for an OS I can't use.

Creating a new OS for hardware that doesn't exist, yet I have to 'upgrade' to it is stupid when it's for a closed platform completely under their control. They could've at least compiled a version of iOS for the older hardware, but no, they chose to lose my roughly $20 per month I spent on apps.

And Safari is the biggest POS browser I've ever used. Constant crashes and a UI designed by people who have obviously  never been on the net.  Even the mp3 player sucks. I've got 6000 songs on random, yet I only ever hear a couple hundred of them. Oh, and then there's the speech control, which well.... might work if the fuggin thing had a microphone (never use the earbuds, so I never have the external mike with me).

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 18:32 | 1724061 ToddGak
ToddGak's picture

Sure, it is a trade-off.  Apple's "closed" architecture means they have you by the balls to some degree.  As you mention, being forced to upgrade your device for a new OS can be infuriating.

My personal opinion is that the superiority of the products offered by Apple is worth playing their game.  If you don't like the way they operate, go ahead and buy a Windows laptop, Android phone, Zune media player, Samsung tablet or whatever.

For someone to say anyone who buys Apple products is doing it just to be trendy is ludicrous.  I'm sure there are some that do that, but I've had Apple and Windows products over the years, and the most recent incarnation of Apple products (since Jobs came back around 2000) are some of the most usable consumer electronics products ever made.

BTW agree Safari sucks, never use it...much prefer Firefox or Chrome, even on a Mac.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 17:31 | 1723910 D.M.
D.M.'s picture

I said their products are great not perfect. The reality is you will be hard pressed to find many companies that will support old hardware for many years. It's the nature of technology, it's moving so quickly that what was once modern and top of the line is considered junk compared to the latest and greatest. If you want new features and updated software then buy new hardware that is required to use it. It's the same if you buy any other computer, phone, etc. from any other brand.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:00 | 1723479 pantheo
pantheo's picture

wow, dream team thread...Reggie, The Trader...and yes Apple is about the lifestyle, shitty piece of crap, needs reboot all the time, even if you have up to 7 tabs open simultaneously. Women stuff.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:47 | 1723413 Wakanda
Wakanda's picture

Dusk is settling into Steve's walled garden. 

The consumer is tapped out.

Lawsuits are mounting.

Steve Jobs has left the infinite loop.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 17:24 | 1723871 Sambo
Sambo's picture

There was a rumour sometime ago that he had bitten the dust. If it is true then...RIP. According to Einstein, Jobs is not going to live for ever even if he thought the Universe of himself.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 18:01 | 1723991 Wakanda
Wakanda's picture

He is still alive, but does not go to HQ every day.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:21 | 1723274 laomei
laomei's picture

best laptop? hardly

best phone? it's cheap shit in a shiny case

tablet? entirely overrated... why the hell would anyone spend that much money to get a thing which is highly restrictive

 

Look at the cost of components alone in each piece of overhyped crap they put on the market.. it's hardly worth it and it's obsolete a year later (if that).  Why do they have so much cash? Because what they are selling is a brand, not a product and focusing on hipsters who'll buy $300 jeans is for some stupid reason effective.  Boycott this shit, and fuck netflix.. i just torrent everything.. and i can watch it on my own terms for free.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:34 | 1723321 Reggie Middleton
Reggie Middleton's picture

best laptop? hardly

best phone? it's cheap shit in a shiny case

tablet? entirely overrated... why the hell would anyone spend that much money to get a thing which is highly restrictive

All very true. Sony makes the best laptop. I just got my 4th (Vaio Z) after returning a macbook air 2011 refresh, top of the line. The Sony cost nearly twice as much and was lighter, thinner, faster and a better bargain even at nearly twice the price. As a matter of fact it is lighter, thinner, faster and a better bargain than the top of the line mac book pro as well.

Samsung makes the best phone, and the contest is not even close (the Galaxy S 2). To even have a discussion means that you haven't used Sprint's version of the phone. Realize that the iPhone has a 72% profit margin. Compare that to the SEA companies who will compete off of razor thin single digit, low two digit margins, own the means of production and will pack tech in tighter than frog ass, as Android refreshes every quarter. Not even close.

Samsung also makes the best tablet.  The Galaxy (pick any recent model) does everything the iPad does, just better and faster in a smaller, lighter, thinner, more flexible package. I know this, for I gave away my iPad to since I had too many devices lying around.

Apple is a lifestyle company, not a true tech titan. I've been saying that for a while, and soon the masses will catch up.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 23:49 | 1724774 motley
motley's picture

Love my HC 3.2 Acer. Full usb for mice/keyboards/disks, flash, overclocked, customized to the hilt....try that iPad. Gave my iPad to my wife and havent missed it. Been a programmer for  17 years...iPads are boring if you are a techie that likes to play and have control. Got a custom Nook too...looks like the new Amazon tablet....lol. Can't wait for Tegra 3 to hit.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 19:27 | 1724175 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

"not a true tech titan" - LMFAO, Reggie, just stop it

I mean, you do realize that everyone is fucking copying apple right??

 

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 08:03 | 1725251 motley
motley's picture

Tablet devices existed long before Apple.  They just did a good job bringing it to the masses with "thin" well-made hardware a light weight OS.  Just like the original Mac...they just expanded upon (copied) what Xerox did. Don't get me wrong, Apple has nice products and a great fan base, but there are a lot of things that Android Honeycomb tablets are doing that the mainstream doesn't have any clue about.  Most tech media is either clueless or partial to the iPad/iPhone and that keeps the masses from understanding what else is out there. If I had a dime for every article that spread disinfo on the these devices...Visit the XDA developers website and checkout the Asus, Samsung, and Acer tablet device forums to see what I mean.  My customized Acer 3.2 Honeycomb tablet can do things that Apple just won't allow. Android is maturing and will continue to take more market over the next couple years.  Think about this way...Android = open hardware/software model vs. Apple = closed hardware/software model. Nothing wrong with it, but many of us don't like to be told what we can and can't do with the device we paid for.  We open it up and they continually close it down (history of the iPhone...I was there).  Same thing with the Mac OS...most Mac fans would be better off going with Ubuntu...an open Unix-like OS vs. a closed Unix-like OS.  But, unless the media sells it, they will not come.  Free is not good in corporation driven world.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:43 | 1723393 MrBinkeyWhat
MrBinkeyWhat's picture

I have not "seen" one yet, but I think the new Android Kindle will be a killer @ $199. No Amazon Stock (disclaimer).

I use my existing Kindle for several hours a day. I like reading books.

Background: I own a publishing company, and saw the handwriting on wall for paper books 10 years ago. The Kindle is a mature product, that has just gotten better.

Look out Apple.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:34 | 1723346 thetrader
thetrader's picture

Time to change lifestyle then?

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:08 | 1723511 pantheo
pantheo's picture

will be force to, brother. Apparently every time that I'm opening your site, my shitty mac pro needs a reboot. No worries, I am leaving you open all day and this way this piece of crap doesn't stuck. Sorry that I'm fucking your servers but there is no other way that I can follow real time. Great stuff btw! Peace:-)

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:20 | 1723267 CH1
CH1's picture

POMO is (I think) over, and the hype is starting to subside. And... other people make electronic doo-dads that are similarly not necessary!!

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:17 | 1723251 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

too much iCrap.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:13 | 1723227 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

That gap in the Netflix chart at $50 needs to get filled.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:05 | 1723178 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

Not enough people with the iMoney in their iWallet to buy a pretty, expensive, iThing.

You need an iJob and an iHome just for starters.  The pretty iFondleslab will have to come later.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:34 | 1723340 Freddie
Freddie's picture

iYuppies and iHipsters are learning that iObamama, iGeither,iGoldmasSack and iRothschild have iFuc*ed their iLives.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!