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Apple, What's up?

thetrader's picture




 

 

By www.thetrader.se

Apple is falling hard today. Many “lifestyle” investors are feeling the pain after Apple has been a real dog lately. After posting Apple vs Netflix last week, we got quite a few angry mails explaining to us Apple is about lifestyle and it is unique. That is all true, but staying at the Top, is always the hardest task, irrespective if you are the best or not. Apple is a great company,  but it is a very crowded trade…

 

Long term chart.

 

Trend still intact. 200 day moving average right here, but this is now a damaged chart. Expect people to sell any rally in Apple from now on.

 

 

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Tue, 10/04/2011 - 20:26 | 1739648 Gohn Galt
Gohn Galt's picture

Go Reggie!!

Tue, 10/04/2011 - 20:04 | 1739596 ParaZite
ParaZite's picture

I sit here, typing on a macbook that I bought from my dumbass friend who can't manage money, for a 1/5 of it's original price, because he needed 200 bucks to keep his lights on at his house... true story. Anyway, it's a nice little computer and all, overhyped perhaps... made with slave labor in China, but it was designed in California. Seriously, Apple as a life style, is bulls*it. That's like saying Charmin is a life style. I use it, when it's done I throw it away, ok, I flush it... but you get the gist. Apple is a computer / phone / etc brand. It's no more a lifestyle than the toilet paper I buy. I may like a particular brand of steak, computer, etc better because of a better experience or because it does something that something else doesn't do... but it's not a lifestyle.  It's just a consumer, making a choice based on past experience. 

My little cheap mac, runs about as fast as my little cheap Linux Laptop... it just has a slightly more refined user interface, without a lot of the failures associated with Windows, but trust me, that's a temporary condition. Ever hear of Mac Defender... it's only a small matter of time before Mac's have as many virus infections, if not more, than windows users, because Mac users are basically going bareback with the internet and using no protection. 

I use Sophos or Eset on my Mac, but I have like 10 PC's and a few servers in my house, not to mention my business laptops. Most Mac Users will be smacked in the mouth and caught completely off guard when the Mac Viruses start coming, and with no protection, they will spread faster than a 2 dollar crack whore for a 200 dollar tip. 

Tue, 10/04/2011 - 23:56 | 1740011 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

the viruses come to Microshite because it's typical product of monopolies, crap. With a base of 95% of world PC's it's remarkable how this complete garbage is never brought up by anti-Monopoly legislators sitting on tons of easily to apply legislation in any country, not questioned widely and regularly in the media, by consumer representatives or watchdogs and in business circles too. The silence is fuking deafening!!

All the bugs on Microshite come 'free' as standard from global software monopolist, Microshite, because shite in, shite out as the saying goes.

I can't talk from experience of open-source Linux like i can of MS (short for Multiple Seizures.. per day) but if there's one threat to Apples ivory tower it's its propensity for their own shuttered systems no doubt to protect revenues streams. I'm a big 'sofa' fan of Linux. I'll get off my arse and purchase it when Linux gets off its arse and makes it readily available. The monopolist of big retail channels MS has seen to it it won't happen... why small local PC shops don't dump this shite and go Linux is quite beyond me! MS will go down the toilet of its own ineptness at software so why don't small biz strike out against the stitch-up job mega retailers and mega global corporates?

Regards Apple viruses there was a rumour of one found on an iPhone in Australia (once) ...I thought viruses were basically stitch-up jobs by MS to get users to buy yet more expensive 'defences' that makes their already totally arthritic software slower and even more clogged broken shite (if that's possible?)

So Mac users look forward to 'cleaning and de-clogging' software being advertised (but not happening) and virus protection (not a sign of a virus to date except an over-hyped event in Oz by journalists who for decades have sat on their tongues like monopoly Govt bodies and said nothing about Microshite ...strange that!)

Tue, 10/04/2011 - 19:21 | 1739479 SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

Robo Trader will drop by any moment now to claim he is already out of APPL at the top, reinvested in Euro shorts. Pants, that is. Had to move back in with his mom. So sad, to see a paper trader fry.

Tue, 10/04/2011 - 19:10 | 1739450 TaterTrader
TaterTrader's picture

Apple really dissapointed a lot of people who were expecting a new iPhone5  - meaning a cool new design to covet. What they got instead was a really cynical ploy to buy a phone that looks the same as the one they already have - becase the one they just paid through the nose to get, is now obsolte  - it won't run the coolest new iOS5 functions!! - a big Fuck YOU from Apple to its ardent supporters.  Not cool at all Apple. 

Furthermore  - the was almost nothing that was made available immediately - no instant gratification.  I've been a customer and a fan since the company began -this was a HUGE misstep in light of the Jobs-Cook transition. A company aware that it would be under extra scrutiny to demonstrate a continuity of wowing analysts, customers, and compettitors would not have blundered this badly. 

Tue, 10/04/2011 - 21:33 | 1739797 ForTheWorld
ForTheWorld's picture

Therein lies the crux of the matter - customers of most (if not all) companies are expecting some sort of instant gratification, and when it isn't administered, all hell breaks loose for about 15 minutes, and then everything simmers back down.

The fact that people who purchase Apple products consider themselves supporters is laughable, and expecting an endless increase in performance from Apple is akin to expecting endless consumption (read: growth) from any sort of modern economy.

Apple will get by just fine, with or without their supporters, because they have fantastic design and marketing departments. Things went just fine for them when they released the iPhone 3GS, didn't they?

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 08:36 | 1740696 TaterTrader
TaterTrader's picture

Steve Jobs was the CEO before, during, and long after the 3Gs launch. That's the difference. And any worthwhile businessperson knows that the most valuable customer to have is a repeat customer. Customers in Apples case are most definitely supporters. Few brands if any enjoy such ardent evangelism from their own customer base. For Apple this translates into billions of dollars in sales, marketing, and growth.

Tue, 10/04/2011 - 19:22 | 1739481 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Hearings by government over actual applied use of data in said phone coming. I'm sorry you feel denied. Now start following the story of a murdered Federal Prosecutor in that criminal underworld called "Wahington State" as reported on NPR today. Everything that you thought you knew is about to be blown away.

Tue, 10/04/2011 - 19:54 | 1739578 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

This? --> http://www.npr.org/2011/10/04/141044333/on-10th-anniversary-of-murder-fbi-seeks-new-clues

I'm curious: I don't understand the significance.

I lived quite near the guy at the time of his death.

Tue, 10/04/2011 - 18:49 | 1739389 caerus
caerus's picture

last of the momos...too many thought trading meant "buy aapl" not that easy folks

Tue, 10/04/2011 - 17:47 | 1739160 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

Steve Jobs died?

Tue, 10/04/2011 - 16:53 | 1738934 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

#ANON BITCHEZ!!

hows that un-hackable service working out for you wanna be kool hippsters? LOL!!

Tue, 10/04/2011 - 20:10 | 1739609 ParaZite
ParaZite's picture

Unhackable?

Aren't Mac's always, and I do mean ALWAYS, the first computers hacked at the Pwn 2 Own event?

Then again, hack a 2500.00 mac and take it home, or hack a 300.00 linux box. I think I'd work harder to hack the Mac as well. 

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 14:18 | 1742107 Leopold B. Scotch
Leopold B. Scotch's picture

Macs don't have a hack reputation for two primary reasons:

1. They limit their compatibility / ecosystem so dramatically, they have fewer loopholes.  The MS ecosystem is vastly open and backwards compatible.  They are like the lovable aunt and uncle who throw parties and invite everyone. Sure, you may get people there freeloading here and breaking something there, but then it wouldn't be one of their parties if you had security all over shutting down anything that does not conform.  

Mac is like having a party at the Monty Burnes Estate: You better party exactly like he says, and you're only allowed to party with the friends he approves.   Security closes down anything Monty finds out of line. You don't really like that, but you're on the party list and you, and more importantly, you and the other guests get to smell each other's farts and compliment one another on how good they smell.

So who cares if you have can only buy Monty Burns approved mixed drinks and beer, or listen to his approved music? It's really not that bad.

 

2. Mac is a minuscule fraction of the Market with a higher price tag that confines itself to higher net worth clientèle, which are generally better educated (if not entirely smug about their importance in life).   Hence, hackers tend to avoid this market because 1) it is tiny compared to the MS ecosystem and 2) among that dramatically larger MS market share, you have a generally less savvy audience more inclined to fall for emails from long lost family members who were friends of Treasury Secretary Mbota Mgundulla who needs to quickly get his/your monies out of the nation of Western Congo.

Point being: If hackers bothered to concentrate their attention to Mac, mac would be hacked a whole hell of a lot more.  Hackers would get less bites, and fewer takers -- The numbers just don't merit it.

Tue, 10/04/2011 - 15:56 | 1738522 Leopold B. Scotch
Leopold B. Scotch's picture

Discretionary Bye-Bye Stock. 

In a recession, people are less inclined to ditch a phone that works just fine just so they can upgrade and profess their importance to their other fanboy pals.

That, and the masses are finally understanding that the Apple Lifestlye always involves Apple's D*#ck in your A$$.

No thanks = Droid.

Tue, 10/04/2011 - 23:14 | 1740039 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Leopold B. Scotch  -  i'd say all stocks are "discretionary bye-bye" wouldn't you? That's what happens when the stock market falls all of one. I agree with your consumers holding on and stretching the life cycle longer during recessions but yet again, we're talking everything from cars to washing machines to Googles 2nd rate gadgets, not exclusive to Apple.. aren't we?

I'd prefer Apples dick up my arse than Microshites... whatta bout you?

No Thanks = Apples still work better than anything else on the planet ..even in a recession

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 13:59 | 1742059 Leopold B. Scotch
Leopold B. Scotch's picture

There's wiping one's butt, basic hygiene, heat, food, gas...  That's different than even fixing the leaky ceiling, the BROKEN car or Washing Machine...., but you need those, but not at a pace of recent "whim" buying levels where people might add onto the house or buy a new car to replace the one that works just perfectly.  But how essential is "the latest" iPod when the market is pretty saturated with ones that work?  Just saying the expectations are far too rich for AAPL

So, YES -- I'd say there are things we buy that are far higher priorities than the latest iGadget.  But I don't disagree all that much some of your point:  Stuff we don't really need is more susceptible than ever if the U.S. is going through the dramatic shift in standard of living I expect them to.  Some stuff will be less affected than others. 

 As for Apple,  I'd say that the fanboy obsession with Apple product and stock makes Apple more susceptible to a discretionary contraction than other companies, although that's all a matter of %'s.   I'd rather not be extended in those areas.

As for MS, they let me build my own box with whatever i want in it, run whatever the hell I want on it.  Apple?  Not even close.  Then there are crappy decisiosn like when iTunes screwed enough people with their DRM system that they finally had to let go of it.  Their DRM was never about protecting the musician or the industry;  it was ALWAYS about keeping users asses firmly lubed up AND STUCK in their Apple Ecosystem.

But I see you've gotten so used to it you enjoy it.

(BTW, I own an original 30G iPod... nice quality item for what it does.  Even survived a drop in the tub when it fell out of my pocket as I bent over to help a kid out. However, I don't run it on iTunes -- have not once I figured out how to avoid it all together. 

But I am very comfortable on the intel based systems windows runs on. I've checked them all out -- Ubuntu, etc., , and Windows 7 Eco is superb.  But I'm also an independent thinker and Apple's ecosystem requires me to be a conformist at a very rich price, and accept only what they deem to be suitable.  No thanks. )

Tue, 10/04/2011 - 18:15 | 1739282 Freddie
Freddie's picture

True.  The foolish young techno dweebs and lefties are marching because they realized they are screwed.  They still will vote for the Kenyan muslim who is a*z raping them.  Fools.

Tue, 10/04/2011 - 19:25 | 1739488 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

WRONG! Hahaha. Wait till you see! You'll be shocked!

Tue, 10/04/2011 - 16:29 | 1738779 Hot Apple Pie
Hot Apple Pie's picture

We've been in a recession for several years now, and Apple has been posting record profits every quarter. When people have little money to spend, they can either buy the cheapest products available even though they know it will be disposable, or focus on quality and buy a product that is a good value and will last. Apple seems to be cornering that latter market, which every other tech company fights over the low-profit scraps left in the former.

AAPL has very little relationship to Apple's business.

Tue, 10/04/2011 - 20:01 | 1739588 fxrxexexdxoxmx
fxrxexexdxoxmx's picture

Why the need for constant new models if the current products are well made? Apple is about gayboys showing each other their toys and nothing more.

Tue, 10/04/2011 - 19:34 | 1739517 J 457
J 457's picture

Buy good value product for twice as much that will last at least until the next new release 3 months later.  Yea, that's real smart.  Besides, I refuse to buy AAPL until they stop using cheap Chinese Foxcon labor.

Tue, 10/04/2011 - 18:07 | 1739256 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

" or focus on quality and buy a product that is a good value and will last." Um.. no product made in China is ever considered a product that will last.

Lemme guess - you probably think MacBook Pros are built at different factories with higher-skilled laborers than Dells, HPs, Acers, etc..

Apple is a GREAT marketing company, but no one ever confused it with a company that makes long lasting products.

Tue, 10/04/2011 - 23:49 | 1740061 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

HomerSimpson  -  i agree Apple is a great marketing company... but try marketing a piece of shit against established market leaders, how will you get on you think?

Before you answer that consider Apple has trounched established players like Sony with Walkman, Microshite PC's, laptops and web-browsers, then Nokia and Motorola et al on Phones... was that take-down of the established Champions all marketing led mate?

Homer is not renowned for his deep thinking, you're living up to the low-rent billing

Apple is first and foremost a great software company. It's faultlessly smooth and reliable for starters and no mean feat. Next they've applied that consumate skill to build a business model in music that left Sony whitewashed in a year, Nokia-Motorola left floored in 2 years flat and diseased donkey Micorshite spluttering in the starters gate     

That shows not just great software and great marketing mate. That shows tremendous strategic skills to out-flank and leave floundering in their wake so many major players and like their faultless software perfect execution of a perfect business plan. Also-rans Google and Microshite can't even execute a launch demo of their cheap copy-cat me-too Apple products to journalists without their products crapping out and their executives talk non-stop dross!!

None of the above create 'Wow' in the hands of consumers.. that shows great consumer understanding, technology and design skills. So quite a lot you missed out, alot like Apples left-standing competitiors in fact (you work for any of them?)

Your post is total garbage

Tue, 10/04/2011 - 18:18 | 1739291 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Yup.  The hardware is the same though Jobs has pretty designs.  Apple's internal software is a little niftier in some cases.  they are all the same.  Just like TV - 200 channels of the same brainwashing crap.

Tue, 10/04/2011 - 23:39 | 1740084 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Apple must be quaking in their boots today with all the troll-like crap and sniping from dribbling idiots on this thread

...it's 'Attack of the Lightweights' day and they're firing blanks from their pea-shooters....(yawn) zzzzZ

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