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Arab Spring To BRIC Watershed: Countries Most Likely To Have Armed Riots

Submitted by EconMatters on 10/14/2011 19:16 -0400

BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) are among the highest risk regions to have armed conflicts based on the third annual Conflict Intensity Index, an annual study evaluating the intensity of armed conflict across 197 nations, released by risk analysis companyMaplecroft.

On the country level, the study rates 12 countries as 'extreme risk':

Libya and Syria, which are ranked joint 1st
Afghanistan
Cote d’Ivoire
Iraq, Pakistan
South Sudan
At equal 8th are Nigeria, Somalia and Yemen
Egypt
India

Region-wise, three years data from Maplecroft show MENA (Middle East and North Africa), Central Africa, Indian subcontinent most at risk. BRIC countries are also at ‘high’ and ‘extreme risk’ Nevertheless, significant opportunities could also exist for businesses, and investors, if those risks are properly managed.

Map Source: Maplecroft

BRICs

Among the four BRIC countries, India is ranked 11 and ‘extreme risk’ for conflict intensity, while Russia (13) and China (29) are both rated ‘high risk.’ Maplecroft noted that protracted insurgencies and terrorist threats within these countries continue to present challenges to the business environment. Conflict, however, poses less of a risk in Brazil (60), which is rated ‘medium risk.’ According to the study:

India, the highest ranked of the BRICs countries, faces significant risks from Islamist terrorism. A particular source of concern is Lashkar-e-Taiba, a pan-Islamist terrorist group that desires the creation of a “caliphate” across the Indian subcontinent and the withdrawal of India from Kashmir. Lashkar-e-Taiba continues to launch attacks in Kashmir and India and is one of several groups suspected of the 13 July 2011 Mumbai bombings that killed at least 26. India is also enduring a 45-year-long Maoist insurgency from ‘Naxalite’ militants in the east of the country whose aim is to overthrow the current political system.

Shochwaves Of Arab Spring

The shockwaves from the Arab Spring have propelled Egypt, Libya and Syriainto the most severe risk category.

Maplecroft notes that generally, North Africa has witnessed an increase in its risk profile over the past three years reflecting the Arab Spring shockwave contagion across the region. Egypt, for instance, just had the Black Sundayon Oct. 9, and the 2011 Egyptian revolution has resulted in significant loss of life with over 800 people estimated killed in the violence.

Libya is an OPEC member accounting for roughly 2% of world oil production; however, its light sweet crude is a preferred grade among many European and U.S. East Coast refiners. The riot and revolution in Libya disrupting the country's crude exportswas part of the reason Brent oil shot up to $123.15 in April this year.

Other OPEC countries are spending lavishly using their oil coffer to quell potential uprisings. According to Bloomberg,

Saudi Arabia will spend $43 billion on its poorer citizens and religious institutions. Kuwaitis are getting free food for a year. Civil servants in Algeria received a 34 percent pay rise. Desert cities in the United Arab Emirates may soon enjoy uninterrupted electricity.

Deadliest Conflicts

Maplecroft quoted Transitional National Council (TNC) of Libya that approximately 50,000 people have died in the conflict, and with a protracted armed struggle that is still ongoing, it is likely that the death toll will run into the tens of thousands, making Libya’s civil war the deadliest conflict of 2011.

In September, the UN Office for the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) estimated that Syria approximately 2,700 people have been killed since major protests began in March.

Yemen and Tunisia both have casualties of approximately 1,000 and 200 casualties respectively, according to estimates from the UNOHCHR Meanwhile, increasing protests in Bahrain has prompted Maplecroft to upgrade the country from ‘medium’ to ‘high risk,’ with almost 30 people killed since February.

Analyst Jordan Perry at Maplecroft concludes that,

“Conflict exponentially increases the risk of doing business within a country, as operations are disrupted and employees and assets are endangered.”

“......Ongoing monitoring of political risks, such as regime stability and conflict, in turbulent areas of operation is essential for companies to ensure business continuity and the safety of key personnel.”

Further Reading: Maps Du Jour: Food Inflation Riots and The Libyan Politics

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Sat, 10/15/2011 - 00:27 | 1776328 AustriAnnie

Good to hear!

I saw the campaign information circulating on twitter with #OWS, showing Obama as a bankster campaign money recipient. I was happy to see it was being sent around. (I think I saw the link here on ZH as well and I tweeted it and saw it re-tweeted. I think a lot of people are starting to realize Obama is not what they thought.

My fear is that some think he isn't marxist enough....

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 22:33 | 1776115 Parth

Its not even close, plus when the winter sets in the protests may thin out. Try camping out NYC in the cold, but if it grows by April 2012 you will get Tahrir square type phenomenon. Its 50/50. Just short it.

Sat, 10/15/2011 - 13:27 | 1777160 Kali

Winter, when the fires will start.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 21:45 | 1776024 akak

One cannot demand the resignation of a Messiah --- even a mulatto one.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 21:30 | 1775993 Henry Chinaski

Last I checked, the good ole USA was involved in more armed conflicts than any other nation.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 22:54 | 1776166 knukles

More? Try most, directly or indirectly.

If there were a Grand Power in Charge of the Universe that Fed Upon Pain, Death, Starvation, Suffering, Disease, the Good Olde USof A would get the prize, honorable mention for its contribution via war.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 21:03 | 1775931 myne

Australia a medium risk of ARMED riots?!

It's pretty hard to have armed riots when most of us have only seen a gun on policeman's belt

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 22:50 | 1776158 Rhodin

I don't live there, and don't know if there is any need, (certianly none here) but with decent martial arts training, and proper teamwork, some could, if necessary, come to view the average policeman as a weapons donor.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 21:08 | 1775944 zorba THE GREEK

Is Australia still a prison camp?

Sat, 10/15/2011 - 04:44 | 1776537 macro-economist

Is Sparta bankrupt yet? Or did 300 economists/bankers manage to fend off against the huge forces of the IMF, EC and the ECB?

Sat, 10/15/2011 - 06:19 | 1776595 falak pema

Leonidas, then tragic hero, now the corrupt but patriotic, greek oligarch, will defend the Parthenon against open market speculative operations to pauper the nation. The Achaemenids are at the gates. Where is THemistocles. He was greater than Pericles for Greece but History just forgot him! How history can sometimes distort reality. It was written by those who believed in Pericles and Hegemony.

Themistocles was at Marathon, organised Salamis and Platae. Who remembers him...He made it all possible.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Themistokles

His naval policies would have a lasting impact on Athens as well, since maritime power became the cornerstone of the Athenian Empire and golden age.

It was Thucydides's judgement that Themistocles was "a man who exhibited the most indubitable signs of genius; indeed, in this particular he has a claim on our admiration quite extraordinary and unparalleled".

So Greece wake up!!

Sat, 10/15/2011 - 01:26 | 1776399 i-dog

Yes. Its Kamp Kommandant is an activist Marxist in a de-facto relationship with a crypto-Joo. Her predecessor (and aspiring successor) is a Roman Catholic; her deputy is a snake; and her [Loyal?] Opposition leader is a Jesuit -- so there is not much hope of the Kamp being closed down any time soon!!

All inmates have been disarmed following a false-flag shooting incident in Tasmania in 1996 that used the same script (and backers) as the recent one by Breivik in Norway.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 21:03 | 1775929 zorba THE GREEK

Where the hell is Mexico on that list. It has been a shooting gallery there for years.

Sat, 10/15/2011 - 00:13 | 1776307 Elliott Eldrich

Considering the sheer number of casualties in the ongoing battles between the narcos and the federales, the viciousness of the atrocities being committed and the social and economic chaos unleashed as a result, and I think one can make a very good case for the argument that Mexico is already in the middle of a civil war. Why this map rates Mexico at "medium risk" of conflict is beyond me.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 21:55 | 1776044 nonclaim

Venezuela and Ecuador tagged "Low Risk", like Canada? Paraguay and Bolivia are also heating up and Brazil has more than 40 thousand violent deaths per year mostly related to drug business.

Summary for Latin America: that map is crap.

Sat, 10/15/2011 - 00:54 | 1776359 AustriAnnie

Lets not forget that Maplecroft works for someone, so I'm sure there are certain interests here and there they have to watch out for.

Just sayin.

Described as: "the leading source of extra-financial risk intelligence for the world’s largest multinational corporations; banks and asset managers; governments and NGOs"

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 20:50 | 1775896 dlmaniac

He who attracts Neocons the most ranks as the riskiest.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 20:50 | 1775895 MichiganMilitiaMan

We have peak everything except peak war.

Sat, 10/15/2011 - 00:56 | 1776362 AustriAnnie

...except peak war.

They're working on that. Just sit tight, good things come to those who wait.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 20:40 | 1775877 LawsofPhysics

Wow, look at that, "its on" everywhere the oil is. Now who would have thunk it? I think I have seen this movie before.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 20:42 | 1775884 iNull

Me too. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9n29c-q3_8Q

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 20:40 | 1775859 iNull

And now I read that Obama is sending 100 armed "advisors" to Central Africa. It's exasperating that we just keep getting involved in these local, tribal, and regional wars that we got no business with. It's fucking endless.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/15/world/africa/barack-obama-sending-100-armed-advisers-to-africa-to-help-fight-lords-resistance-army.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 22:50 | 1776157 knukles

So what'll be the NYT's opinion?
Silence, A-OK hunkie dorey all for freedom, or WTF is going on?

Does anyone get the irony? Our Prez, Peace Prize, Invading Africa to kill without a trial, etc., again? (That was the release I read, capture or kill.)

The whole fucking world has gone mad.
Not going to be, not on it's way, not man when it gets bad, not when the shit hits the fan, it falls apart.
It's fucked beyong all belief Now, At This Moment.
And it just may well be way the fuck past the tipping point, the Nash equilibrium (all Nash equilicrium, big and small) have been broken, the Fourth Turning, may as well be the Book of Rvelations meets Murphy's Law.
People of supposed gravitas opining of alien invasions to unite mankind? Piling more debt upon already unsustainable (math, simple fucking math) debt loads.

Institutionalized madness.

Sat, 10/15/2011 - 01:39 | 1776413 Nobody For President

A plus for "...the Book of Rvelations (sic) meets Murphy's Law."

Son of a bitch - these here ZHers (some of them anyway) know how to turn a phrase...

Sat, 10/15/2011 - 05:58 | 1776583 cossack55

Too true. What Knuckles lacks in subtlety he makes up for in perception.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 21:06 | 1775939 zorba THE GREEK

I ran into an armed adviser last week. He said: "I advise you to give me all your money and your watch."

Sat, 10/15/2011 - 05:55 | 1776579 cossack55

The brighter advisors will will state " I suggest you panic." Of course, if they are bright enough to read ZH they would not be advisors.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 21:31 | 1775997 Henry Chinaski

He ws a wealth redistribution specialist.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 20:40 | 1775879 LawsofPhysics

No worries, it gets tribal in the U.S. soon enough.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 20:55 | 1775908 iNull

Deliberately neglecting our own borders while we go off these Arthurian quests to promote world peace. Our delusional, quixotic foreign policy would be comical if it weren't so tragic. I am just waiting any day now to hear that someone has smuggled a biological, chemical or nuclear weapon across the border and blown up Dallas. It's only a matter of time.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 23:47 | 1776260 CrazyCooter

Oh, they are feeding the beast on the border on purpose. They need armed gangs raping/pillaging/killing to claim the power over the people they crave.

I lived in Texas for many, many years. Folks, if you live on the border, GTFO. You will be on the front lines of TPTB excuse for more authority over your lives and they will let you hang/get shot/get raped/get robbed to those ends. They are giving them guns, you don't need any other reason to pack up and move (like I did).

I love Texas. I love the people. I love the soul you find in the state when you get out into the smaller towns of family who have been around for generatations. I have been all over ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kECdK97dn1I

Perry isn't dealing with the problem and the goverment is setting it up to be rough on the people, particularly on the border. I have no doubt in the ability of Texans to protect themselves, push come to shove, however if the government wants to bust their balls for doing so to establish a new level of authority, I don't think it is going to be pretty.

The Texas NG should have been on the border years ago. We occupy foreign countries for the elite but we can't police our own back yards.

Read the writing on the walls; your family may depend on it.

Stay safe ya'll.

Regards,

Cooter

Sat, 10/15/2011 - 09:52 | 1776752 MrBinkeyWhat

Hey Cooter!

I have kin in Texas. "Don't MESS WITH TEXAS!" as they say. Me, born in NOLA, and live in Alabama. Hurricane hardened.

Got friends who lived in Alaska...sounds REAL NICE. I won't move, because I have ROOTS here now. Bring on any $hit low lives. I am ready. VERY READY.

Peace and happiness Bro!

MBW

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 19:47 | 1802952 CrazyCooter

My old man's family is from Shreveport. My middle name is Cajun French. I love LA (that is Louisiana for you retards out there who aren't keeping up) especially the cookin' and the music. I grew up in Texas/Arkansas, but I also grew up on boudin, gumbo, and all that.

I will say, moving up here means no tomatoes and no okra. I am still coming to terms with that.

That aside, if you can nail a gig in the SE of the state (temperate rain forest) grab it and git' gone. The main body of the state (Anchorage, etc) can get rough, so make sure you know what you are getting into.

Regards,

Cooter

Sat, 10/15/2011 - 03:05 | 1776466 Freddie

I always here how tough the Texans are but they put up with the invasion from the south. I have heard dumb reasons like "or Mexicans are not like Calif Mexicans" and shit like that. The Dem & Rep parties are almost identical. You get LBJ Republicans like Bush and Perry. The local sheep only care about football.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 20:32 | 1775857 Joseph Mother

It's On like Vietnam ... Bitchez!!

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 20:35 | 1775853 akak

Given the ongoing, aggressively militaristic, highly interventionistic and neo-imperialistic US foreign policy, I suggest that the map have a special and unique status for the USA in regards to armed conflict: "Guaranteed".

(Hey, I even managed to beat AnonymousAsshole to the punch, FOR ONCE, when it comes to USA-bashing! Of course, he would blame the US foreign policy, along with all of the world's ills, on "US Citizenism", whatever the fuck that means.)

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 23:38 | 1776246 CrazyCooter

WTH, I doth protest. Alaska should be green. I see food on the way to work, every day, and I have a several mile commute. And that doesn't count my rice/bean/flour stash ... red beans and rice for dinner tonight Cajun style ... its what what you got to did.

Can't wait til I am in state! Will be gettin' myself a floor freezer and some outdoors fo' dinner ya'll!

Regards,

Cooter

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 22:11 | 1776084 covert

it will get worse in usa, because no-one listens or reads.

http://expose2.wordpress.com

Sat, 10/15/2011 - 10:06 | 1776753 falak pema

I managed to read the spiels.

Just one remark : Anti- religious ideology should be balanced. Its the dogmatic SOCIO-POLITICAL component of the ideology that is offensive to secular, rational, empirical minds, built on greco-roman logic, lex romana, and scientific tradition. Its NOT the spiritual component of religion.

So as for ALL monotheist Abrahamic religions, ethnic preference, religious dogmatic preferential, obscurantist logic, is what is incompatible to modern minds. Not the spirituality of religion.

In the rants presented on your blog targetting Islam : The same could be said about Catholic church dogma inherited through the ages, like Papal theocracy principles or Inquisitorial dictates, or the principles of the Talmud, as for the rabid exclusionary, repressive aspects of Islam highlighted, in exclusivity.

Right now, it is clear your blog aims as "bogeyman", not the dogmatic principles of Islam but, by assimilation, ALL MOSLEMS. That is unacceptable, as you cannot herd them all into the fundamentalist pen.

Islam is a religion that has no cleric as intermediary, no church. It is simple, individual MAN before GOD, the holy texts are his own personal free will's, to intrepret and respect. That leaves HUGE latitude to the individual. It makes the UMMA a nebulous with as many heads as there are people...So don't be more rabid than Mohammed was. And he was tolerant. The Hadith, his life example is a guide line, NOT sacrement. The Sunna is also subject to interpretation. All this militates for a non-hegemonic appraisal of Islam and its practitioners, of all bends : sunni, shiia, sufi, ismaeli and other splinters.

Theocracy and Caliphate are precisely examples of political construct around Islam. As such, reprehensible. Like the Crusader States or the Spanish Inquisition. Or arguably, Zionist state; not anti-jew sentiment.

Sat, 10/15/2011 - 10:27 | 1776786 fxrxexexdxoxmx