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Are The Conservative Dutch Immune To Contagion? Are You Safe During An Earthquake Because You Keep You Keep Your Shoes Tied?

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Fri, 11/18/2011 - 07:19 | 1890695 AngryGerman
AngryGerman's picture

dutch will make it illegal to smoke weed by non-dutch in all their provinces by 2013. they already started in the south. this means that around 95% of their tourism industry will collapse. enjoy the economic downturn bitches. good bye the low lands!

Estimates for 2011 (source: WTTC): 

GDP Direct Contribution: EUR12.8bn (2.1% of total GDP) GDP Total Contribution: EUR37.1bn (6.0% of GDP) Employment Direct Contribution: 345,000 jobs (4.7% of total employment) Employment Total Contribution: 639,000 jobs (8.6% of total employment) Visitor Exports: EUR15.1bn (3.0% of total exports) Investment: EUR3.5bn or 3.2% of total investment

do the math yourself. when they ban it, it will have significant impact on their economy.

Fri, 11/18/2011 - 07:39 | 1890705 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

scraping the bottom?

are you in any way really "German"? Ever been in the EZ at all?

do you have any clue about this Dutch law, it's background and how it will be enforced?

do you have any idea about weed, where you can get it in Europe and how much it is relevant for tourism in the Netherlands?

---------------

All in all this is a further propaganda article for EuroBonds, EuroTax and full monetization. And we know who would profit from all this...

Fri, 11/18/2011 - 07:43 | 1890717 AngryGerman
AngryGerman's picture

you implying that the oldies in bergen an zee and texel spend more than the crowd in amsterdam in the summer?

it's a typical geert move: windowdressing being active.

Fri, 11/18/2011 - 07:58 | 1890721 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

no, you are implying that only because the Dutch will "outlaw" weed for foreigners - they want to do this to have a better police handle on their foreigners (due to their current xenophobic undercurrents) and as a bow to global attitudes - there will be a "hunt for the hapless tourist wanting to smoke a spliff in peace".

this is preposterous, akin of saying that Amsterdam is the only place where you can find a joint in Europe. The Dutch Police is one of the European Masters in the Art of Looking The Other Way.

Tourism in the Netherlands has the following reasons: Business, Culture, Shopping, Partying, Sex, and, lastly, Drugs (of which weed is only a small part)

I strongly suspect from your attitude that your are an American Cousin with very little experience of the EZ - I might be mistaken on this but this "legal/illegal = will happen / will not happen" atttitude strucks me as very typical US. Or your comments are meant for US consumption.

 

Fri, 11/18/2011 - 08:45 | 1890789 AngryGerman
AngryGerman's picture

"The Dutch Police is one of the European Masters in the Art of Looking The Other Way." - That's true, although I would not attribute this to skill but to incapability. And the tendency of Dutch authorities to come down hard on tolerated (you are also right there, it's not legal) soft drug consumption does not originate from the police agencies, but from politicians. See Maastricht, Rotterdam in the past.

Of course the Netherlands are not the only place in Europe where soft drugs are available. However, the laid-back attitude there have made the country to one of the two main entry points of soft (and hard) drugs to enter the continent (the other being south-east Austria/Slovenia). This was only possible by Dutch authorities allowing an unregulated market for soft drugs to establish themselves. The tail of producers/importers/distributers will have a harder time continuing their business once the legal facade get rendered more restrictive in operations.

That being said, let's break down your list of tourism: You can count business as such, although it is questionable in how far non-randstad areas benefit from it (whereas they benefit strongly from drug tourism, see Maastricht). Culture: same. Shopping: same, and nothing that cannot be found elsewhere nowadays. Partying and sex: you don't want to make me believe that there is no relationship with drugs there, do you?

In short, the political turn towards conservative values, not only represented by Wilders, bears the risk of implementing policies that take away the speciality of the Netherlands. It always has been heralded as a liberal, free-thinking country, but these days are long gone. When this is no longer, what makes the place then special? And when you saying that drugs play only a small part in the economy, it wouldbe interesting to see what the effects on the shadow economy will be. Again, you should expect a sharp drop in tourism, especially in the high-spending 16-45 year segment. And I don't think the police will look the other way when there is not only such a strong political pressure, but also braod consensus from the public that these policies are right.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 07:35 | 1897889 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

so let's see - it's 2013, the coffee shops still open, the locals with a Dutch ID can buy their spliffs, and you think that if a non-north-african-looking tourists walks in and politely orders (speaking easy) a joint either the publican or the local plain-clothes policeman immediately jump on him?

still preposterous, including a drop of 95% (or any sharp drop) of tourism

I repeat, the law is targeted on "improving the policing" of the Dutch Immigrants, not at tourists (and carries  of course racist undertones)

sorry, I repeat, you write with an American Mindset (this is not a slur), either because it's yours or because it's the one of your target audience

in the greatest part of the EZ the police does not go after every "crime", in a "nevertheless, it's the law" attitude

if the conservative values would be so preponderant in this matter, the coffee shops would be closed, period.

and most hard drugs enter the EU through Spain and Italy anyway

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 19:45 | 1889619 LMAO
LMAO's picture

... Yes, real estate will take its fair share of banks down, again. Reference in detail, my post Reggie Middleton ON CNBC’s Fast Money Discussing Hopium in Real Estate.

Are you shitting me Reggie!

Surely you must be mistaken, I mean; The SWF of the alleged BEST run country in the world, yes that's right the fucking Norwegians are at it again, are diversifying heavily into the "new Coke of the century" namely Real estate.

Especially France, in particular Paris, seems to have some attractive crap to sell at give-away pricing.

I mean WTF Reggie; please don't tell us ignorant Norwegians that this is nothing more but a cleverly designed cover up made to look like a sound investment (after all nothing less should be expected from a SWF) but really is more like a sort of Marshall Plan to help out the French banking industry.

Yeah fuck, let's take some of that toxic French waste out of those poor bastards' hands.

 

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 22:09 | 1889991 AUD
AUD's picture

Watch out. I'm convinced that the RBA was left holding the US mortgage debt bag in 2008. The so called SWF here in Australia put much if not all of its 'reserves' in bad debt & needed a line of credit from the Fed to stay afloat.

Fri, 11/18/2011 - 06:17 | 1890648 LMAO
LMAO's picture

Watch out.

Thanks for the friendly warning, unfortunately the dormant Norwegian population and their clueless politicians are only watching. There's no oversight or whatsoever regarding the dealings of said SWF. It's all cloak-and-dagger.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 19:15 | 1889548 Hannibal
Hannibal's picture

Silver tanked. Buying more. Thank u Blythe

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 19:47 | 1889652 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

Who in their right mind would ever sell? (/sarc)

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 19:05 | 1889509 Georgesblog
Georgesblog's picture

There are many points raised by this question. First, since Corporatism respects no national boundaries, anyone with small change in their pocket looks like food to the central bank predators. Second, if you have change in your pocket, less than a dollar, you are among the top 5% wealthiest people in the world. If you have more than a dollar, you're in the top 2%. The point is, people had better learn how to stay out of the line of commercial fire.

http://georgesblogforum.wordpress.com/2011/11/02/the-daily-climb-2/

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 18:48 | 1889430 AUD
AUD's picture

Reggie, the short end can stay at zero & the long end has further to fall & big profits still to give.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 18:47 | 1889424 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

Thank god I have a DVR and I can FastForward through the commercials. Dutch what?

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 18:31 | 1889361 eatthebanksters
eatthebanksters's picture

Reggie you are so right...I'm a veteran of 31 years in the (commercial) real estate biz....I am a broker and was a certified general appraiser (I let the certification expire)...cap rates basically translate into what is the yield on the full price of the real estate.  The real formula for deriving cap rates can be found in Wallace Smith's textbook on real estate valuation (I forget the title but he was one of my profs at Berzerkely in the 70's when we did things the old fashioned way).  In a nutshell if real estate returns move in relationship to other capital market assets based upon risk adjusted returns, then as bond prices fall and yields go up, you should see the same theing hapen in real estate...yeild requirements will move up and thus prices will have to fall.  I can't think of a scenario where the opposite would happen, because if bonds take a shit then so does the business world which means higher vacancies, lower rents and lower NOI, etc...not a pretty picture.  Keep up the good work.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 23:12 | 1890128 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

Yes. And Bill Gross was so right too, just timing way off. Yields will soar across board and borders. 

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 18:48 | 1889434 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

You guys talk CRE and we guys think IYR. How about some facts and differences?

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 17:41 | 1889193 Zer0henge
Zer0henge's picture

Well played sir.

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