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I think the plan is a double whammy - EURO and US simulateous banking crash - probably timed for Halloween and the clocks going back (psychological mood drop across the whole population).
Its going to be a very uncomfortable winter for the 99%.
I'm sure I'm not the first to point this out. But is Reggie really the Old Spice guy. cause that guy is awesome.
(please excuse me as the taste of bile interferes with my ability to type this).
(please excuse me as the taste of bile interferes with my ability to type this).
LOL! Classic. Utter Literary Prose Reggie. Thank you for sharing!
Sometimes I think I must be really dumb...
If I go "rob a bank" and tell the officer that it was really just a "Friendly Withdrawal"
I still go to jail.
If THEY write an unbacked CDS and call it Senior Debt, its still illegal insurance. How
is it a valid inforceable contract?
If I go bankrupt and decide to shift some assets around to benefit family and friends, at
the very least the judge will say no way, give the money to creditors ZYX etc. If I spent
it, I would expect fraud charges. Then my initials aren't BOA.
Accountability to investors became just a marketing gimmick when the currency divorced from real money. Racketeering and extortion are now standard procedure. Fraud now has the support of government. Now, there's a long list of high crimes and misdemeanors. Bankers and politicians may feel invulnerable for the moment, but the piper will get paid, in real money. It will take a major change for the public to avoid being caught in the currency collapse.
Top notch reporting as usual Reggie, but it's still focusing on trees, not seeing the forest.
The new paradigm is banks continue lending to insolvent governments to prevent defaults and massive derivative blowups wrecking the global financial system. When government debt collapses in value banks get "recapitalized" by central banks with printed currency, effectively passing those losses to taxpayers. That's the forest.
So it doesn't matter how many huge American and Euro-banks are near collapse, they'll all be bailed out or nationalized (another form of bailout) like Dexia.
All the whining and hand-wringing and finance minister crisis meetings and such is merely a show put on for the public, a cover story to hide what's really happening, the biggest citizen looting in human history by governments and banks.
How long can it go on? Simple. Till everybody's been looted dry and currencies are worthless.
Firstly Reggie isn't "reporting"... he's a financial analyst not a journalist so i'd describe his revelations as publicising his insight/ability to sell financial services and hopefully a smattering of warning the wider public for the greater good
Second your thesis of the 'Forest' is the US Banks and US Govt are using bailouts to stop their derivatives from pinging while they use the hang-time to transfer wealth through Bennys fraudulent monopoly money system you may be correct. But unless you look at the trees individually you'll have no idea of what's going on in the forest
The transfer of derivative risk and explosive debt in BoA and other crooked criminally run US banks to innocent depositors reveals the wider picture of what's going on under the forest canopy.
Human scum backstopping their junky gambling with other peoples money aided and abetted by all the Govts 'safety nets' (Laws and regulations trampled underfoot, the corrosive criminality of 'professionals' such as politicians, regulators, accountants, risk, compliance and due deligence managers, non-Exec Boards etc)
The tipping point will not be "when the looting stops" but when a significant section of society turns on The Parasite Club ... it'll be a social event not and economic event...the best justice system of all for society cleansing itself of the thieving scum and Harvard fraudsters as it can not (never) be left to the crones (legal system) that are honoury and working members of Club Parasite ...judging by the protests we're not more than a year or two away lynchings
When Reggie posts an article here in a public forum it's reporting as an investigative journalist would.
Protests imply lynching or similar level of social justice? In 2 yr tops?
You're delusional. None of the protests in Europe and MENA, far more violent than the OWS stuff, resulted in a single lynching nor any similar level of action against any of the "Parasite Club".
Mubaruk stepped down not because of protests but US government / CIA / etc pressure. Gadhafi died at the hands US government / CIA / etc.
Show me where a single banker received anything approaching this "social justice" you speak of.
Hell, OWSers don't even know who they're protesting against, and they're being kept well in check, behind barriers, ect, fully obeying the army of mercenary thugs (a.k.a. law enforcement) arrayed against them.
And you think that ragtag herd of bleating sheep is going to bring lyching-level justice on any of the "Parasite Club"? You're crazy delusional.
Damn, that long? I just got in good supply of wool and needles....and popcorn
SP500 weekly chart shows megaphone wedge and looks bullish.
Market consensus became clearer on Friday so back to the original bullish analysis and SP500 weekly chart reverts to bullish/neutral.
So equity sell off been delayed once again and additonal upside ahead.
The larger megaphone enclosed by green lines reveals an unstable market and is bearish. It may result in a giant
head and shoulders forming once possible right hand shoulder is completed.
Long term monthly chart remains bearish.
"The FOMC stated that the increased purchases of agencyrelatedsecurities should “provide greater support to mortgage lending and housing markets” andthat purchases of longer-term Treasury securities should “help improve conditions in privatecredit markets...
...To the extent that private investors do not view these assetsas perfect substitutes, the reduction in supply of the riskier longer-term assets reduces the risk premiums required to hold them and thus reduces their yields...
With policy interest rates in many countries constrained by the zero bound, and withshort-term interest rates in Japan having been near zero for over a decade, expanding the toolkitof monetary policy is an important objective. In this paper, we examined lessons from theexperience of the Federal Reserve since late 2008 with one of the key policy tools available atthe zero bound—large-scale purchases of longer-term assets.By reducing the net supply of assets with long duration, the Federal Reserve’s LSAPprograms appear to have been successful in reducing the term premium.
The overall size of thereduction in the 10-year term premium appears to be somewhere between 30 and 100 basispoints, with most estimates in the lower and middle thirds of this range. In addition to thisreduction in the term premium, the LSAP programs had an even more powerful effect on longerterminterest rates on agency debt and agency MBS by improving market liquidity and byremoving assets with high prepayment risk from private portfolios.Based on this evidence, we conclude that the Federal Reserve’s LSAP programs were
successful at lowering longer-term private borrowing rates and stimulating economic activity.While the effects are especially noticeable in the mortgage market, they appear to be widespread,including in the markets for Treasury securities, corporate bonds, and interest-rate swaps. Thatconclusion is promising, as it means that monetary policy remains potent even after the zerobound is reached.
and the purchase of such alarge volume of securities in a relatively short time frame required surmounting some operationalhurdles. However, by restoring functioning to the mortgage market and lowering the termpremium, the programs provided considerable benefits.
By stating a specific amount and a timetable for LSAPs upfront, the FOMC appeared tocommit itself to a future course of action. This commitment was softened somewhat by the useof the phrase “up to” before the specified purchase amounts. However, market participantsgenerally indicated that they expected the full amounts to be purchased, and in the later stages ofthe programs the FOMC made it clear that close to the full amounts would be purchased."
- Brian Sack March 2010
Your correct Reggie, and when Bank of America moved the 53 Trillion in derivatives over it was for a reason. The reason is they know that problems are on the way in the coming weeks and they don't want to be responible for not being able to pay on these derivatives. I think it's real funny that CNBC hasn't really talked about this, not at all. Anyone with an IQ over mud would know that this is essentially saying that they have no money for this junk and so they threw it over to the other arm of their bank and hope that the US govt. will bail them out.
Reggie - your spear looks a little limp in that first shot - just sayin'
Thank you for sharing your insights with us.
good stuff Reggie
She is hot.
I'll take the shoe box thank you very much!
Buy gold you motherfuckers.
I'm surprised the depositors don't simply move their accounts to another bank. Don't they know what has happened? Or is it now illegal to close bank accounts?
At the very least, I would think that BAC has a fiduciary duty to inform the depositors so that they can decide for themselves.
It is not a true hedge when the other side can't pay, and history has clearly proven how easy it is for the other side not to be able to pay.
This is making my brain explode. But what seems like the worst case scenario, is maybe the best. If there is a complete collapse and none of the banks (counterparties) are able to pay on the swaps, then all the derivatives cancel each other out. They're not on the balance sheets anyway. Going forward the banks won't have income from selling swaps, but so what. What am I missing here?
The initial bonds written on every european countrys' debt would take hits. Therefore, since most of the bonds are held by the big banks that have leveraged big to own them, a haircut on a country's bonds, like Greece to start with, would mean bankruptcy for the banks holding these bonds. Fifteen European banks are leveraged up to 5 times what the US banks were levered during the US 2008 crisis. See the Hussman chart More than halfway down the link.
Thanks for the link. Interesting article, except the author doesn't seem too upset; just matter-of-fact, all the European banks are highly leveraged and are going to fail.
The Coming Derivatives Crisis That Could Destroy The Entire Global Financial System
Submitted by ilene on 10/21/2011
In Explanation Of The Last Paragraph
It seems there's some confusion over the last paragraph of this ticker:
"..This is what the media means when they say "the private economy is de-leveraging" -- they're only really speaking about the "1%", in this case the TBTF institutions.
The statement on balance is false when applied to the entire economy: You may think you're de-leveraging but the economy as a whole is not; instead you're having the private obligations of a small number of people, in this case the TBTF banks, forced upon you as taxpayers as the government levers up to counteract private credit contraction among the big multi-national and national banks!
In short every citizen of this nation -- man, woman and child -- has been robbed of $10,000 which was taken from you and given to the TBTF banks to prevent them from blowing up, with the obligation to pay in the future shoved in your face at literal gunpoint by the government.
So much for "de-leveraging" of the private economy, at least as it applies to the 99% of the nation!
The government didn't "expropriate" or "extort" anything from the TBTF banks as is commonly said by the right-wing side of the aisle -- in fact government actively conspired with the TBTF to steal your money and give it to those very-same institutions while it was lying about helping you.
The Fed Z1 - a simple compendium of mathematical facts - does not lie."
Reggie, this is off topic, but wondering if you could comment on PMI Group which has been seized....per AP:
PHOENIX (AP) -- Insurance regulators in Arizona have seized the main subsidiary of private mortgage insurer PMI Group Inc., which will begin paying claims at just 50 percent.
A statement on PMI's website says a court order, signed by an Arizona Superior Court judge on Thursday, gives Arizona's Department of Insurance full possession and control of the subsidiary. Beginning Monday, PMI says claims will be paid at just 50 percent, in lieu of a moratorium on claim payments. Meanwhile, PMI said it will "continue to support our customers' ongoing policy servicing needs, and loss mitigation programs."
This may be old news, but the fact they are only paying out 50% on any new claims sounds big to me. Also, I am not sure how big these guys are, but a comment from a reader on WSJ suggests a potential big impact on Freddie/Fannie:
The decline of the PMI insurers signals the death knell for new Fannie and Freddie conventional lending, whether for purchase or for refinancing purposes. How many potential borrowers have an honestly appraised 20% minimum equity in their properties. The answer is very, very few.
Unless there is a solvent mortgage insurer available to pay claims on greater than 80% LTV loans, Fannie and Freddie cannot legally make such loans. The next step will be legislation to allow Fannie and Freddie to make higher leverage conventional loans without PMI. Any such move will further wreck what little confidence foreign creditors have in Fannie and Freddie paper.
Asian central banks, including China, have already ordered their portfolio managers not to buy any more Fannie or Freddie paper. They may instead only buy Ginnie Maes, which have always been explicitly backed by the "full faith and credit of the United States". Look for European central banks to follow their more astute Asian counterparts.
Fannie and Freddie might then be compelled to finance new loans out of domestic savings. This would clip their wings mightily. The final desperate solution would be to have the Fed massively buy Fannie and Freddie bonds in a QE3. This is a surefire recipe for a new financial panic.
seriously reggie, i've been watching you and going to your blog since 08'.
you, george washington, and bruce krasting are the top three posters on zerohedge ( no offense to banzai and cognitive dissonance.).
reggie.......also, is it me, or is your voice deeper on this interview than usual? maybe you had a sore throat? if you have a cold, feel better soon. truth to power reggie! you are a true warrior in this , and inspire many people . thank you.
you should be obama's next head of the u.s. treasury. i couldn't imagine how proud we'd be if you got to kick timmy's ass out of the golden throne.
Reggie better get a proper Assegai first though
FDIC insured depositors will always get back the nominal value of their accounts. This may just be a way to spread some of the risk to another government agency
Reggie has been on target with most of his research. You better read him even if you disagree.
Yup! spreading it around, just like spreading more turd on a shit sandwich.
TopCallingTroll - the idea the FDIC back-stops deposits, even nominal amounts, is a lie (isn't every Govt Dept neck-deep in BS?). Lender of last resort is a fallacy especially the already bankrupt FDIC who are 'back-stopped' by the already bankrupt US Treasury and US Govt
Once again politicians have promised more (way more) than their scrawny necks could ever deliver. Any depositors in BoA should just get out now
There were co workers who laughed when a few years ago we said that FDIC was bust. They told us they can go 250 and all is well.
THEY can go 250K but we go the other way.
Hopefully we are the first out of the Theater before the rest of the place stuff all availible doors. Anyone remember that nightclub fire in the Northeast where the double front doors was stacked top to bottom with bodies just before they all exploded into flames? (Thankfully the US Media organs did edit out that part.)
What scares me is the possibility that not only the Theater is owned and operated by the BOA, but the parking tower too.
Always is a pretty confident word. The FDIC has not functioned in a credit contraction/ depression before. It was invented in the last depression and has bailed out a handful of banks here and there. Now they are bankrupt, with 700 banks collapsing in 4 years, and always may not apply. Like any insurance or bonding agency you might get pennies on the dollar. Especially if Merrill steps in front. Or at least, getting what your nominal value of money is worth may take your entire life- with your kids paying the government to pay you back
The ATM fees are just the start of negative interest rates. Getting zero, or any positive rate on your money will be impossible as the real rate of return on money will plunge below zero- way below what the FED is offering the banks. The banks know, and any smartey like Reggie knows that the banks are not going to lend. Their cash is worth more sitting there- and getting a real return from the FED far outweigh lending to people who are basically not good for it anymore.
Somehow, Merrills crap will be counted as an asset since its"insured" and it will recapitalize BA. Or some shenanigan like that
Thanks Reggie for the extensive due diligence.
This is the natural progression in the BOA/Countrywide scandal.
Obviously, the cheif benificiary of these Derivatives is Chase/JPMorgan/Goldman Sachs n crew.
Government by the mafia FOR the mafia!
BOA is the largest depositor base across America.
It's obvious they intend to destroy the banking system from within
with a problem reaction solution scenario in mind, probably involving
Since talk of social collapse and FEMA camps is both disturbing and boring
let us sporadically dance,drink and party with Gordy Berry's son:
"BOA is the largest depositor base across America. It's obvious they intend to destroy the banking system from within.."
It's Dog-eat-Dog out there but even i'm staggered at the level of treachery and criminality of the Big Banking Dogs eating the little Dogs (depositor base)
BoA shifting their derivative exposure from the financial arm onto citizens bank deposits is such a fuking disgrace words come up way too short to even describe want a bunch of criminal cunts BoA, the Fed, the FDIC, the writers of the new liquidation rules that allow this scam/fraud/con and the big derivative holders are
Pitchforks backed with almighty anger for this bunch of human scum
o and dude you know how to party lol
if the bank goes bust people will get angry blame the politicians form a new protest group TP OWS or whatever blame the government blah blah blah
everyone will line up to vote
Is it time to short-the-shit out of BAC? Seems reasonable.
Question: BAC owns my mortgage. Is this bad? Thanx!
I was just thinking the same thing... Wonder what the short position is on BoA.
This statement though by Berflunky really takes the cake:
"If a federal agency had [appropriate authority] on September 16 , they could have been used to put AIG into conservatorship or receivership, unwind it slowly, protect policyholders, and impose haircuts on creditors and counter parties as appropriate. That outcome would have been far
preferable to the situation we find ourselves in now."
That's just cockamamie horseshit. Since when did the fed give a shit about "appropriate authority" to do anything? The entire bailout was done seat of the pants... The Berflunk's argument is a total straw man. They make it up as they go along.
RT Hottie- quickly...how long till the big event comes...
Reggie-it's gonna happen....depends on how good their cock(grin)...I mean err....
RT Hottie-(snicker blush)...it depends...
obvious chemistry, freudian slip combined for subtext that my wife would not have missed...because I would be hearing about this for ten years or more I can't help but wonder if you are ok.
oh and GREAT work as always.
Excellent analysis as usual Reggie. :)
Anyone thinking a small solvent,FDIC bank is safer may be in error as well.
The FDIC has already raised rates for smaller regionals to pony up for the big banks and their problems. The FDIC could possibly kill their earnings and transferring money to the big boys. At the FED's behest, the rob Peter to pay Paulson will take effect because the large banks are the US's digital global hedge fund army of doom to take on the other banks in the world.
Read Goldman Sachs...
Clearly cash will be HELL to protect.
I'm just paying off my mortgage, making a clear savings that is guaranteed. Sucking cash out of my account before the idiots at the FED figure out how to punish me as a saver
The FDIC runs by the gracious consent of the Fed. The regulators, working for the FDIC and Fed, put a halt to some secondary(Non Fed Reserve Class A Firms) during the S+L crisis. This transfer (53 trill) is the same transaction, moving exposure onto Bank Holding Co. with the Deposits in them(retail, wholesale and buisness accounts). Those same stoppages amazed those Insiders because they had no belief there was a conflict(protecting one class investor, with the assets of of a different class-whom were not participants in the schemes of the first class).
Other Secondaries Insiders where indicted and jailed(some 1000) whom did this during "S+L".
Now, the very reg agency who audited and made recommendations on legal status of same actions, are taking those very same action. If BAC falls, and has to be "Bailed" via FDIC, it will come from the Fed,, if America allows.
Personally, IMO, when the Feces hit's the orbiting surfaces of the Rotary device in said BAC-BAIL-Fed,,,, America will not allow. Could be wrong... but.. Since the Fed will always come out on the right side of any trade, one has to ask, why, considering risk to exposure to limited and singular solution(FDIC/Fed Bailout) and vast resistance to it's proposal, why would the Fed have allowed this transfer? Whom is the "investor" needing the, supposed transfer, supposedly for credit rating-Counter risk cost? Does it matter whom the "Investors are? Are they the same parties that recieved via AIG, Tarp $?
Again, if America does not allow, Fed ruined(Fed risk). Is the Fed prepping to abandon the currency side of the Fed Reserve Contract? If so, will they leave the U.S.A. with the counter risk dirivitive "bag"?
Fed-FASB guided-50 to one leveraged, how deep is the "Bag"??
Not how deep, but how much weight is in the bottom? Will it be enough to carry your corpse of a bank and system to the bottom of the sea?
Has such a burial been publicly revealed and properly conducted in full view?
It was NOT that long ago when they hung criminals in public view. Indeed there is a row of tombstones in a cemetary I recall, Treason, name striken never to be remembered. And the rest of it left blank with the body 6 feet down. Leaving you to wonder.
It may be some simple matter of expediancy. The Fed wants out, imo. BAC is a part of the Fed class A group. I think they'll raid FDIC on BAC counter risk payoff... and leave. America better have a plan B. SSI being nothing more than non negotiable "Special Fed Bonds",, which haven't a market.. without the "Fed Corp" representing then.
BOA is part of the ACH are they not?
If they go "poof" how many millions of dollars auto drafted (Payroll and Bill payments along with scheduled and ordered wire transfers....) is going to be poof too?
I love to wire money. It matters not how much as long the 20 dollar fee makes it worthwhile. The recieving bank does not make any noise at all about it. 40K? Sure. 40 dollars? Done.
Just try depositing actual cash or check... and you will feel as if you were raped first and then pillaged afterwards.
Great to see that a big event wont be happening by the end of the year and my puts on financials will be worthless.
People need to stop using "rape" when they mean "pillage".
I realize they go together, but they don't mean the same thing.
I think transferring the 57 or so TRILLION "notional" dollars of swaps by Merrill to mothership B of A is about as criminal and arrogant thing we've seen . I wouldn't keep a dime in B of A. Who knows when you will get reimbursed if(WHEN) it goes down.
Jim Sinclair has done work that shows that notional value can become actual value in a default/disaster scenario.
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