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BoomBustBlog Research Evident In Today's News...

Reggie Middleton's picture




 

Here's a spattering of news that was obvious two years ago, yet released today...

Stocks Fall Amid Europe Downgrade Concern, JPMorgan -Yes, several European countries will be downgraded again - the problem is they should have been downgraded again quarter before last! Reference the entire Pan-European sovereign debt crisis series and then consider the query, "What Is More Valuable, The Opinion Of A Major Rating Agency Or The Opinion Of A Blog? Go Ahead, I DARE You To Answer!"

U.S. Trade Deficit Widens Beyond Forecast - Yet US treasuries are still being bid at negative yields. Is this sustainable? German bunds are doing this very same levitation/flight to "hope for quality" act as I type this. What happens when people start to pull out their calculators and spreadsheets? Reference The Biggest Threat To The 2012 Economy Is??? Not What Wall Street Is Telling You...

JPMorgan Misses on Revenue Outlook; Shares Fall- As I have explicitly outlined for several quarters. My followers should realize what my subscribers already know, and that is JPM missed despite lowered earnings expectations and synthetically contrived results borne from accounting gimmicks and games. That goes to show you how bad off the nations big banks really are! I know certain name brand analysts have been bullish on US banks, but...  Question the Quality Of BoomBustBlog Bank Research, Will You? Bove and Fitch Follow "The Blog"!

And in case you didn't know, There's Something Fishy at the House of Morgan

You can even download your own Independent Look into JP Morgan here...

Click graph to enlarge

image001.png

RBS Capitulation Sets Blueprint for EU Banks- Honestly, are we just figuring this out now? See "BoomBust BNP Paribas?" (it is strongly recommended that you review this article if you haven't read it already) I started releasing snippets and tidbits of the proprietary research that led to the BNP short, namely File Icon Bank Run Liquidity Candidate Forensic Opinion - A full forensic note for professional and institutional subscribers. See also The Anatomy Of A European Bank Run: Look At The Banking Situation BEFORE The Run Occurs!As excerpted:

Below is a chart excerpted from our most recent work showing the asset/liability funding mismatch of a bank detailed within the report. The actual name of the bank is not at issue here. What is at issue is what situation this bank has found itself in and why it is in said situation after both Lehman and Bear Stearns collapsed from the EXACT SAME PROBLEM!

Note: These charts are derived from the subscriber download posted yesterday, Exposure Producing Bank Risk (788.3 kB 2011-07-21 11:00:20).

image015image015

The problem then is the same as the European problem now, leveraging up to buy assets that have dropped precipitously in value and then lying about it until you cannot lie anymore. You see, the lies work on everybody but your counterparties - who actually want to see cash!

image012image012image012

Using this European bank as a proxy for Bear Stearns in January of 2008, the tall stalk represents the liabilities behind Bear's illiquid level 2 and level 3 assets (including the ill fated mortgage products). Equity is destroyed as the assets leveraged through the use of these liabilities are nearly halved in value, leaving mostly liabilities. The maroon stalk represents the extreme risk displayed in the first chart in this missive, and that is the excessive reliance on very short term liabilities to fund very long term and illiquid assets that have depreciated in price. Wait, there's more!

The green represents the unseen canary in the coal mine, and the reason why Bear Stearns and Lehman ultimately collapsed, as seen in "The Fuel Behind Institutional “Runs on the Bank" Burns Through Europe, Lehman-Style":.

And finally... France Loses AAA Status as S&P Wields Ratings Ax

The reason??? France's banking system's solvency issues are obvious, and the leverage into Italy is foreboding. The socialist state is bound to do more bank bailing in the very near future, and that ain't cheap! Of course S&P takes action 7 months after BoomBustBlog warns paying clients!

Wednesday, 03 August 2011 France, As Most Susceptible To Contagion, Will See Its Banks Suffer

In case the hint was strong enough, I explicitly state that although the sell side and the media are looking at Greece sparking Italy, it is France and french banks in particular that risk bringing the Franco-Italia make-believe capitalism session, aka the French leveraged Italian sector of the Euro Ponzi scheme down, on its head. See also The Fuel Behind Institutional “Runs on the Bank” Burns Through Europe, Lehman-Style!

I then provided a deep dive of the French bank we feel is most at risk. Let it be known that every banke remotely referenced by this research has been halved (at a minimal) in share price!

 

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Sun, 01/22/2012 - 22:10 | 2087407 arg
arg's picture

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Sun, 01/15/2012 - 16:54 | 2066900 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

CNBC can't handle the truth Reggie. 4 mins of airtime, nowhere near enough.

'It's it already priced in' - LOL How many time do they use that excuse.

Stick it to Goldman - respect Reggie.

I don't want to see crap charts. I want to see their faces as Reggie tells the truth.

Let's have much more Reggie.

Sun, 01/15/2012 - 16:21 | 2066805 trebuchet
trebuchet's picture

Also France has declining competitiveness - its trade balance isnt doing so well. 

 

At least Greece has made up most of its lost competitiveness since 1990s, in four short years. 

 

Germany lost competitiveness last year, after gaining solidly at the expense of the south (hence their problems) and Francce but Italy and France STILL losing competitiveness hance neg balance of trade. 

Germany is regaining its competitiveness as is Spain, Ireland, Greece.   

 

But not italy and France. Implication? they cant grow themselves back to a better rating. those debts as % of GDP just going to increase.

 

When the main market unpicks these fundamentals, along with the insolvency of banks issue that isnot going to get solved soon, the Eu experiment looks even more shaky

Sun, 01/15/2012 - 10:59 | 2066110 bigkahuna
bigkahuna's picture

Whatever happens to end this stage of the play will probably allow the so called leaders of this world to skate as if they had no hand in the creation of these problems. We should develop a few ideas where any collapse is linked to a scenario with a key event that cannot be tied to any of these "leaders". I am guessing a "natural" event.

Scenario, fed and central banks get world economies to really feel like they are healed and doing well. All the while they impose ruinous damage to the fundamentals supporting economic eqilibrium. People get confident again when suddenly a horrendous (seemingly natural) disaster occurs which destroys the global economy. 

The system is reset and the banksters and politicians skate.   

?

Sun, 01/15/2012 - 07:32 | 2065950 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

Well done Reggie.  The real shocker was how long they were able to prop up this teetering outhouse.  It's just about collapsed now.  I see only one possible move left, devaluation.

  1. Back the SDR with gold
  2. Replace the USD with the SDR as the reserve currency
  3. Print domestic currencies in the EU so they have bi-monetary systems, a domestic currency that can be devalued, and the Euro for international trade.
  4. Peg the dollar and other fiat to the SDR
  5. Ramp gold prices
  6. Devalue your fiat and print like crazy.
  7. Start a war and blame any hardship on the enemy.
  8. Claim victory when devalued currency results in "growth" as prices readjust to a weaker fiat.
Sun, 01/15/2012 - 04:15 | 2065874 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

 

 

 

Reggie hits another Home Run. http://911research.wtc7.net/planes/analysis/homerun.html  American Airlines BofA gets a laugh. Priceless, in more ways than one. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sec-government-destroyed-documents-regarding-pre-911-put-options

Put it all together and contoled demolition, of the WTC and world market, ...is without a doubt part of an offensive objective to establish both military/police force position and an economic vacuum to prevent escape by all apposed to the new world order agenda. Funny how all these Middle East countries just suddenly became weak from the inside and the waters in the Gulf have warships positioned to take on another nuclear driven threat  just like Iraq, at the same time Europe and the U.S. are being imploded from the inside by the banks and zero interest is kicking FX butt, Makes it easy to trade and gain large short term profits, if you don't have a future for your soul.

 Newt meaning for Catcher's Mitt has a black hole?>>> http://www.bollyn.com/index.php#article_13410

Sun, 01/15/2012 - 12:02 | 2066171 Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

Grand Slam!

Good thing the US invaded Afghanistan for all that oil,

likewise an even better thing Saddam going away had nothing to do with the others going away.

do you actually post these trades anywhere publicly on the net?

 

 

Sun, 01/15/2012 - 03:58 | 2065867 Major Miner
Major Miner's picture

Just a well intentioned comment:

Please don't refer to people who read your column as your "followers". Perhaps "readers" would be a better word. If you say you have followers, that suggests that you view yourself as our leader. I don't think you feel that way, do you?

Sun, 01/15/2012 - 01:09 | 2065728 Milestones
Milestones's picture

Would someone enlighten me as to the difference between Slovakia and Slovenia? I've been to Prague but am totally lost as to the difference, if any.          Milestones

Sun, 01/15/2012 - 16:23 | 2066811 trebuchet
trebuchet's picture

the difference is GOOGLE 

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 18:11 | 2065026 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Reggie; where'd you get that picture of my ex-girlfriend modeling her special bikini?

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 15:19 | 2064803 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Magnifico Reggie

Question. Has the ECB bailouts effected your shorts on the French banks?

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 13:37 | 2064649 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

WTF? Are you long or short the market? What was..."the warning"? That there would be a bailout? Or that the bailout would succeed causing interest rates to "go negative" in Germany? Somehow i doubt the latter...cuz that's full on "Great Depression times a thousand" if that's the case...and you want to BUY the debt on the downgrade if you believe that's the direction we're going in and certainly NOT short it. I would agree...the trade deficit numbers in the USA are a big deal. Just when you think "we can't do it any cheaper"...somehow someone else does. I did take note FoxCON has a suicide rate that's through the roof. What are they doing to their workforce i wonder? I'm sure it's nothing..."experimental." Now move along...sheeple. Move along...

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 13:27 | 2064633 Irish66
Irish66's picture

Thank you Reggie.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 12:49 | 2064588 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

Hey Reggie,

I've loved seeing you proved right over and over. Keep being honest. You are a revolutionary in that regard. Your no B.S. style rocks and is a serious credit to your admirable character. You help me see some light in a very dark world. If more individuals would have the courage to think and act like you the world really could turn out okay. It's about honesty and you deliver it with style and charming bravado. I love it.

Now I'll 'go there'.

It's a little bit more with you Reggie and it's because you are a Black man. I especially favor you because you are an individual who demonstrates that it is possible to transcend the false construct that being something other than a white male 'educated' within the Ivy league equals failure. I'll freely admit that I'm particularly drawn to you because you are a Black/African/Person of color/Disadvantaged/Minority (pick your category eh?). I like what you do primarily because of the quality you represent. It's a major plus though that you are also a living example of the fact that excuses are like assholes. I don't doubt that you have had to overcome challenges that some other people would not have faced but the fact that you have done so speaks volumes about human capacity and individual worth VS state dependence and enslavement by a programmed system.

In a better world Reggie, the color of your skin truly would not matter any more than the size of my feet. But in a world where it does unfortunately still matter, you are a source of hope and inspiration.

God bless you.

Sun, 01/15/2012 - 04:29 | 2065878 resurger
resurger's picture

+1

God Bless you reggie! he is so down to earth and speaks the truth

Reagrds

"Take off is optional, landing is a must"

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 13:08 | 2064606 CapitalistRock
CapitalistRock's picture

Disadvantaged? He's very intelligent and he gets along easily with people. That's a rare advantage that most successful people have and few others do.

Something tells me you pay way too much attention to skin color. I hope Reggie finds your remarks offensive, as he should.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 14:08 | 2064681 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

So I'll give you something else.

White people notice when a Black person is 'representing'. That is just good ole' human nature. A few of us pay attention consciously, most do it subconsciously.

Reggie shows the best. Reggie is an ambassador to truth and an individual who just plain 'hit's it'. He is a brilliant and exceptional individual. Why can't we have a society that rewards the Reggie's of this world instead of the corrupt and sick regime that promotes failed Black lives lost to a regime which harvest votes rather than one that speaks truth to power in a competitive environment? Reggie can stand his ground any place any time.

He doesn't require/fallback on any excuses.

The man is who he is.

Period.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 13:36 | 2064644 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

It's not a matter of me noticing someone else's skin color and finding that relevant. I understand my limitations in adequately expressing my thoughts to others. I was more offering a signal of respect to Reggie for who he has manifested himself to be. I sincerely admire and respect the man. If I come off as racist then so be it. I absolutely deplore racism though and am deeply offended by it. I hoped to express support for a man 'bucking' the system more than anything else. I personally believe that racism is used intentionally by the regime to help in keeping us separate, and specifically to foster the notion among minorities that they would be helpless victims of racism absent the regime.

Reggie proves that construct as false.

Peace.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 18:20 | 2065049 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

ISEEIT=diadvantaged Reggie=non disadvantaged. There all fixed for you.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 12:41 | 2064579 Zedge Hero
Zedge Hero's picture

I'm wanna get this straight, the nine countries actual spell out

SP FASCISM

Spain

Portugal

 

France

Austria

Slovakia

Cyprus

Italy

Slovenia

Malta

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 14:04 | 2064678 falak pema
falak pema's picture

congrats, u kno how to spell.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 14:08 | 2064683 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

I'm also proud of him - what the heck is SP supposed to be?

---------------

Reggie, wait! I'm still completely emotionally wasted from your announcement that you skinned the Holy Vampire Squid for us!

I thought we would hear some "this is how I broke the Squid's back" story!   ;-)

Sun, 01/15/2012 - 04:30 | 2065880 resurger
resurger's picture

hahaha

"skinned the Holy Vampire Squid for us!"

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 15:12 | 2064792 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

PS. FASCISM

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 12:18 | 2064562 falak pema
falak pema's picture

RM :

How does this guy Christian Noyer, BdF head,  and the french Finance min. Baroin, pretend that french banks do NOT need to recap. even after downgrade and EVEN if Greece does an exit from Euro zone? They have to meet Basel 111 @ 9% by mid 2012.

The math you presented should make it a liquidity and solvency crunch in 2012 for BNP and CA. It doesn't take Italy to melt for the french banks to suffer. So how can they put up such a brazen front?

Election year talk???

It could boomerang bad for Sarkozy!!

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 11:34 | 2064509 new game
new game's picture

spot on again, but must say like saying it will be warm in july in Minnesnota...

no bets to place anymore; just some cash, pm and on with the day. cash still king s.t.

eventually barter will rule; but until then waiting for the black swans to arrive as the flock desends onto the pond between euf(ail) and iousa...

Sun, 01/15/2012 - 06:13 | 2065920 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Reggie:  Wish I had known about you when I was actually "investing" my FRNs.  Now, I'm sitting on the sidelines, where the next MFGlobal cannot reach me (directly)!  Good luck saving yer current clients (AND future ones as well).

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