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Bye, Bye Japan (EWJ)
Figure 1 is a weekly chart of the i-Shares MSCI Japan Index Fund (symbol: EWJ). The red and black dots are key pivot points, which represent the best areas of support (buying) and resistance (selling).
Figure 1: EWJ/ weekly
Before I make my comments about the chart, I want to state that I have little knowledge of the Japanese economy, and that this analysis is purely technical in its scope. However, price is the final arbiter for any issue, and price often leads the fundamentals. So the ramifications of the “set up” are rather significant.
A weekly close below the 9.33 level is bearish. 9.33 has been the support level 3 times (see figure 1) over the past 18 months, and this area has importance. In addition, a weekly close below 3 prior key pivot points is also very bearish. I would look for prices to fall another 25% from these levels and eventually test the next level of support at 7. This trade will not be realized if prices remain above or subsequently close back above the 9.33 level on a weekly closing basis.
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Weinberg Says Japan Headed for Economic Meltdown (Audio)
http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/News/Surveillance/vDIUlY817LmI.mp3
Some other poster was here a year or so ago blasting the Japan and the JPY. I am not going to repost my comments. Who knows whether that poster really shorted the JPY at 85-95. Anyone following that advice lost money.
BTW thetechnicaltake
You say that price is the final arbiter for any issue.
So what price do you put on a child with thyroid cancer from ingesting iodine isotopes?
What price do you put on workers trying to limit radiation exposure?
What price do you put on yourself ... as a person who sells himself?
Come on. You effectively promise to make me rich, if I buy your advise ... so how much do you sell yourself for?
Don't be shy, " price is the final arbiter for any issue".
Fuckyoushima is several times the magnitude of Chernobyl ... e.g. three reactors still fissioning and releasing nuclides - radio-active isotopes, such as markers like iodine and cesium freely, which should have now decayed, if any control had been established (as at Chernobyl).
This disaster is a quantum difference from the air-burst atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, which caused massive physical damage and horrendous irradiation effects on those immediately exposed to external radiation, but limitted effects from internal radiation, because there was limitted fall-out of radio-active particles.
Air-bursts are 'clean bombs' that have relatively few long-term effects (I am being 'clinical' here, though I fundamentally abhor nuclear weapons ... all WMD).
On the other hand: a ground burst 'digs' a huge crater and creates radio-active fall-out that renders large areas uninhabitable ... it is a "dirty bomb". So are, in effect, Chernobyl and Fukushima.
The air-bursts on Nagasaki and Hiroshima were deliberately designed to allow Japan to recover and resume its part in the global, industrial economy via the Marshall Plan (Germany too).
OK I am skimming facts here, but I have lived through the entire period and I paid attention all the way.
All of Honshu Island (mainland Japan) is now more or less contaminated, of course including Tokyo ... altogether a population of 100,000,00 +.
The reactors at Fukushima can NEVER be brought under control.
Very little progress has been made on 'just' the damage from the tsunami generally.
There cannot be a "Marshall Plan" for this complex natural and human-made disaster.
Even if I, and others, exagerate somewhat; there is just NO way that Japan can return to being a "major economy" ... and add in the fact that for, several decades, Japan has been effectively stagnant, since the near-vertical collapse of the housing/property bubble.
BUT "the markets" still treat Japan as if it was still part of the economic PTB.
Cognitive dissonance!!
The world was already changing before Japan hit a brick wall, via Fukushima.
The BRICS were already challenging the NWO of Wall Str/Washington/the City of London.
Bye, bye Japan and all who sailed in her (and, no, I am not being callous towards the Japanese victims of Fukushima, nor anyone caught in situations they could do nothing about).
Nice chart! but seriously...all of the worlds central banks or the like have this game so rigged technical analysis is useless,,much like it was when they started trading futures in chicago in earnest in the 80's...at this point take the kids to the ballpark and fuck the markets...brain power doesnt matter anymore, enjoy life because when this game ends it will change life as we know it.
one of the larger surprises of this decade will be the relative powerlessness of central bankers.
Yep. My impression is that central and other banks are so indebted to each other that they will all implode.
Hmm, three pokes and a penetration. Sounds like a Herman Cain business dinner.
9 9 9 inches bitchez
cain is the other (koch) brother by another mother.
$NIKK chart http://bit.ly/vmMpdz
Just disregard technicals with Japan. When the earthquake happened, Japan just bought up EWJ in droves, and killed owners (like me) of EWV.
In other words, this article was a waste of time. The only fact you need to know: If Japan doesn't intervene EWJ sinks like a brick. If they do, EWJ launches like a rocket. Simple as that.
Amazing what they can do with the world's most financially and news-ignorant populace, isnt it?
Folks here just don't care, and don't want to care.
"Caught" that great American contagion post WWII did ya?
Key pivot points? Are you constipated? Yep, you are! The yen has been "anal retentive forthe better part of the year" ! Grow some balls and show me a real chart!
How about this eur/chf fibi off the 1.2120/70 level Magellan? I'll bet you are short a/j .
Radioactive bonds are like gold, shiny...
long puffer fish...
!
wow.... so it turns out that japana might be the only developed country to experience weimar style hyperinflation , ironically while their currency gets stronger relative to the rest of the world. wow
Yeah - that European crap is more toxic than Cesium 139.
Yes, them CDSs are priced about as well as can be imagined.
I don't know from technical analysis, but:
Current Japan pros:
Huge portion of market trading not just below book value, but even lower than it ever has, with some portions having book values you can believe (i.e. not financials)
Disciplined, hard working, tax paying, well educated population (not Greek, Portuguese, or Italians)
Great infrastructure (the parts that aren't radiating, that is)
Central bank has no reservations about buying assets at current levels
Current Japan cons:
Maybe there are more companies like Olympus? Their tactics allowed them to somehow hide losses for over 20 years - find the consultants who did this for them, and you may find a lot more...
Central bank perceived as weak - massive interventions hardly make they JPY budge.
Fuku-fuckin-shima.
Tokyo - more or less world's largest metro area at substantial risk of being hit by tsunami over next couple of decades.
Aging, shrinking population
Exposure to European crap
Plus, you forgot to mention that the Japanese are the world's biggest racists and there is no way they are going to allow "Aliens" to infiltrate and dilute Japanese racial puriity (Paraphrasing from "Mein Kampf I think) even with a shrinking population and economic collapse looking them directly in the face.. The US should subcontract the job of managing the Southern boarders to the Japanese?
PS. They are doubly fucked via the Zombie bank policy which has been so succesful it is now being copied in the US. Wake me up in 2 decades/
Yeah, the Japanese think they're the best race. That used to be rational and normal, now it's considered a mental illness. Any honest geneticist will admit that you can tell a person's race by looking at their genes. So we are different. If reality is not created, then it is physical - and by various standards, one race is 'best'.
"The US should subcontract the job of managing the Southern boarders to the Japanese?"
I've never seen a Japanese bed and breakfast operator - do you reckon they'll do OK?
Don't forget that ~$1 Trillion US Treasuries.
Uh, is that a pro or a con?
That's a pon(zi)
One of their ex-BOJ peeps just said the brave and right thing - unless they move the JPY back to 100, their economy is done. My number is 92, but I guess he could be right.
Look, when bonds glow in the dark they have a let's buy 'em 'cause they're pretty thing happening.
Japan is gonna have a hard time issuing more JGBs for any kind of stimulus measures. Look massive printing or possible default! Get those CDS at 1 point!!!!!!!!!!
Not if they first peg the currency and then buy the bonds from themselves...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wotZBJgxqB0&feature=related