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California’s High-Speed Rail To Nowhere

testosteronepit's picture




 

Wolf Richter   www.testosteronepit.com

I have used high-speed rail extensively in Europe and Japan. For medium distances, from city center to city center, it’s faster than flying. In the US, there is only the Acela Express, which runs on old track. I took it countless times from Manhattan to DC. It was hassle free and fast. High-speed rail works. But not the way California is doing it.

They offered voters a plan and a website with renderings of cool-looking trains. It would connect LA and the Bay Area with extensions to San Diego and Sacramento. The initial stage would be funded with California general obligation bonds and federal dollars. The vast majority would be funded later in some unknown manner. Cost would be $35.7 billion. Voters approved it by referendum (Proposition 1A). That was November 2008.

By November 2011, cost estimates had ballooned to $98.5 billion. Voters realized they’d been had and became restless. The California High-Speed Rail Authority (CHSRA) made a formal request for $2.7 billion—the first tranche of the $9.95 billion in Prop 1A bonds. The federal government would chip in $3.5 billion. It would fund a 130-mile segment of civil works and track between Bakersfield and Fresno in the Central Valley. However, it would lack electrification as well as high-speed train control and communication systems. So it can’t be used as testing ground for high-speed trains. At the most, it might be used by regular diesel trains.

And now another hullabaloo erupted: The California High-Speed Rail Peer Review Group recommended in its letter to the legislature that the project be put on hold. It points at a number of fundamental issues, particularly the fact that long-term funding has not been identified. In light of the current budget fiasco, future funding for the project might not materialize, which would leave California with a useless section of high-cost rail in the Central Valley.

The CHSRA shot back with a press release that called the letter "deeply flawed, in some areas misleading and its conclusions unfounded." It used terms like "egregious errors,” “unsupported assertions," and "unfounded assumptions." And politicians began another round of public arm wrestling.

But the dominant economic problem inherent in the project isn’t even discussed: not much high-level work will be done in the US. The worldwide leaders are companies in Japan, Germany, France, Canada, and China (with IP appropriated from foreign partners). And they’ve been lobbying the government for years.

Siemens, which builds the German high-speed trains, is well established in the US and has been waging a publicity campaign. Roelof van Ark, a former executive of Alstom, the French TGV builder, is the CEO of the CHSRA. And Governor Schwarzenegger made a special trip to China—that was well before the horrific high-speed rail accident near Wenzhou in July that killed 40 people. An investigation pinpointed some causes: equipment, procedures, and corruption. It put a damper on California’s enthusiasm for Chinese trains.

California has a history of farming out its infrastructure projects. Exhibit A: The San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge. It is years behind schedule. The budget for the eastern span has ballooned from $1.3 billion to $6.3 billion. And the landmark 525 ft. tower of the "self-anchored suspension" bridge was fabricated in ... China. For more on collapsed bridges and buildings in China (pics), the high-speed rail accident, and the economics of having a big part of the Bay Bridge built there, read.... Our Chinese Bay Bridge.

The high-speed rail system will have even more foreign content. Building the civil works and laying the track will be done by local workers. But design and engineering will be done overseas by companies with expertise in the field. Trains will be designed and manufactured overseas as well, though companies might promise to assemble them in the US. Mere crumbs. US Taxpayers will fund the project—as they fund highway construction. But part of the funds will go to foreign companies and advance their technologies. High-speed rail is a worldwide business, and the leaders have become export powerhouses. Yet it's another sector that American industry abandoned long ago.

Is the auto industry next? Practically every car or truck sold in the US today contains Chinese-made components, though Chinese-designed vehicles haven't made it yet. Chinese automakers scramble to move from shoddy copy-and-paste models to products that would be competitive in the US. A government priority. And they’re getting there through the back door.... The US Auto Industry Drifts Off To China.

 

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Fri, 01/06/2012 - 04:40 | 2038460 suanye
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Thu, 01/05/2012 - 17:57 | 2037133 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

"The problem with Socialism, is that you run out of other peoples money to spend"; Margaret Thatcher. Also--"Hubris".

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 17:19 | 2036923 Pancho Villa
Pancho Villa's picture

California has big budget problems but Gov. Moonbeam (who wanted California to launch it's own communications satellite in the 70's) seems to have no problem in funding a train to nowhere. The man never met an infrastructure project he didn't like.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:07 | 2037380 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

Our country is going down the tubes and the useful idiots are all sitting by and saying "at least I will have a job" when in reality they won't.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 17:09 | 2036853 malek
malek's picture

For medium distances, from city center to city center, it’s faster than flying.

Please define medium distances.

For example in Germany from Frankfurt to Munich it's 400km on the autobahn (250 miles), and a train is a bit faster than taking the car, but about equal to taking a plane including ride to the airport etc.
From Frankfurt to Berlin it's 550km (350 miles) and nobody in his right mind would prefer high-speed train over plane.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 15:57 | 2036544 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Can't we let Mexico to build it?

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 17:25 | 2036934 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Only if the drug cartels get a piece of the action and the train line goes straight through to the Tijuana or Sinaloa Cartel. The Cartel will probably demand their own "green" boxcars that are only filled in Mexico and unloaded in key drug distribution points and banking centers.

Its a "green-green" initiative...weed n' cash.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2009/03/22/us/BORDER.html?ref=drugtrafficking

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 15:39 | 2036435 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

Don't they already have railroads in California? If they want better passenger trains couldn't they buy some and run them on the tracks they already have? Even if they had to fix them up a bit?

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:40 | 2037460 Theosebes Goodfellow
Theosebes Goodfellow's picture

Yes, California used to have great railroads. I can tell you of hundreds of legs that are no longer used or used rarely, due mostly to deteriorated track conditions. California DOT officials tell us there is either no money to repair them or supposedly no interest in using them.

The North Coast Railroad Authority is trying to bring freight trains, (and passenger as well), back to Northern California, but they are hampered by...., (wait for it)...., the City of Novato, The EPA, CAL-OSHA, and so forth. Yep, that's right, it's GOVERNMENT in the way of being able to get trains running in California again. See:

http://www.northcoastrailroad.org/index.html

What'd you expect? But in the interim, the same government wants a brand new train system, when they won't/can't fix the one they have! I tell ya', them Californian tax payers, what a bunch of maroons! We gets 'em every time.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 14:26 | 2036181 pine_marten
pine_marten's picture

Follow the money and throw em in jail.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 15:09 | 2036314 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Democrat union state where fleecing taxpayers is the name of the game.   Get union govt workers running and fixing the trains.   Evil scum.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 14:51 | 2036262 blu
blu's picture

No kidding. This thing is a money pit for land investors and developers.

However the recent chatter is that the whole thing is nearing death. It is very unlikely that they'll go through with it now.

However they'll spend every last cent they have on hand, into the pockets of their racketeering buddies. In the end, $5 BILLION will have evaporated into consulting gigs and fact-findings and not a single mile of track laid AFAIK.

The looting associated with Cal HSR has been epic.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 14:18 | 2036148 Beancounter
Beancounter's picture

Nice to see Massachusetts' Big Dig model being deployed elsewhere. 

I believe the lovely bridge and tunnel's original cost estimate was $2.5 B with the  final cost well over $16B not to mention interest on bond payments being made by ...wait for it.... increased fares on commuter train and light rail passengers....  so your $35 Billion is well on it's way to $200...

 

Estimates.. they're so cute when they're little...

Anyway, the 3.5  mile project was totally worthwhile at the end however, it takes me 8 seconds less time to get through the city.  Over the course of my lifetime, that saves me almost 4 hours.  That's time you can't get back. 

So here's to you California!  Round up all the gangstas, retired politicians and other noteworthy hacks, there's "facilitation payments" and no show jobs to be had! 

Sidebet:  I predict a state gas or miles driven tax to fund the Goldman Sachs syndicated bonds that will be necessary to pay for that beastie. 

 

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:09 | 2037523 Van Halen
Van Halen's picture

"Estimates.. they're so cute when they're little..."

Best comment of the day award!

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 14:10 | 2036119 ddtuttle
ddtuttle's picture

This is a good one.  One of my pet peaves is "addition".  I learned it in first grade, but as I look around at my fellow adults, I'm thinking maybe they were sick that day.

$100 Billion dollars ?  That's a lot of money even in the new era of Trillions.  But lets add up the costs and savings.

So how much driving by car is that?  At $4.00 and 20 miles per gallon that's 500 billion miles.  San Diego is 500 miles from Sacto, so that's 1 Billion passenger trips.  If there are 10 trips per day with 1,000 people each (Not bloody Likely), thats 10,000 passenger trips per day. But 1B trips is then 100,000 days or 273 years!  273 years to recover captial costs from gasoline savings !?  Actually this is too long;  it makes no sense to even talk about it.  

See what I mean about addition?

If we ask how much time is saved?  At 500 miles the airplane flight is just over an hour, assume the train goes 250 mph, for two hours.  So for 1 hour to the ariport, at each end, and a hour of "security time" each passenger spends 4 hours for the flight, 2 hours for the train for a saving of two hours.  So at 365*10,000 passengers per year, thats 7.5 million hours saved per year.  Assuming 5% interest on $100B, that's $5 Billion which means we are PAYING $684 per hour of travel time, just to service the interest on the captial !!  How much more for the electricty and employees?

 

See what I mean about addition?

Perhaps trains are much more efficient than planes? We will doubtless solve the high temerpature superconductor problem, meaning the electricty can be delviered to remote sections of track with minimal losses. Friction is probably about the same, trains have air & rolling resistance, whereas planes have only air resistance.  Going 500 mph at 40,000 ft instead of 250mph at sea level is about a factor of 2 advantage for the plane.  But planes have more drag due to creating lift.  Additionally, the friction time for planes is half that of the train, but the take off is expensive.  So there if there is an advantage, it is slight and probably favors planes.  It will come down to technology at the time, which is unpredictable.  No advantage either way. This boils down to how much you think electricty will cost compared to fuel 20 years from now. Energy is energy, so eventually we will make jet fuel from electricty. That will mean jet fuel energy will cost about twice as much as raw electricty. This undoes any advantage the plane might have had.  Finally, trains are longer and can carry more people, so a full train will probably out do a full plane. But at this point it should be obvious as the sun in the sky that the real issue is how we get people to, from and through airports.  To streamline airtravel would be MUCH cheaper than this booondoggle, and is the most efficient solution all the way around.  Heck, build fast trains from the city center to the airport. As for safety, plane crashes are really bad but don't happen very often becasue there's nothing to hit up there (Big Sky Little Plane).  Trains are confined to a one dimensional path, and there are things on the ground they can and do hit. At 250 mph in a  light weight composite train this will be bad too, and probably more frequent.  The tracks in Europe are HEAVILY fenced, and over/under passes are essential at every crossing.  One last thing: NOISE.  I can remember being in a beautiful French Village when the TGV went by about 1/2 mile away.  HOLY CRAP was that loud.  Think 747 going by at 50 ft off the ground 1/2 mile away.  I am guessing that that level of noise will be considered unacceptable in the long run, which means more captial expense. A good comaprison here is city busses.  For some reason we have these huge busses that only are more efficient than cars when they're nearly full.  In most US cities, most of the time, it would be more efficient to simply let people travel by car.  See what I mean about addition?

 

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 14:05 | 2036117 PulpCutter
PulpCutter's picture

Let's not even try high-speed rail.  Just stick with what we've got - automobiles and highways are working out very well.  The rest of the world is stupid and wrong.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 21:22 | 2037673 BidnessMan
BidnessMan's picture

It won't be high speed rail in the US.  Just can't afford it.  The US will end up like the rest of the world - most people will take a bus.  On US roads that already exist.  Peak oil and rising gas prices will make the single driver in a car unaffordable.  Roads with one bus instead of 50 cars work a lot better.  And in a world of $10 - $20 per gallon gasoline, people are going to travel a lot less in general. Air travel also becomes uneconomic.  Busses are inconvenient and take more time, but far better than walking, and far more flexible than rail.

The US used to have a very impressive trolley system like still exists in Boston.  Overhead electric wires and either rail or tires. Cheap gasoline enabled the suburbs and cities like Atlanta, Houston, Dallas, Phoenix, and Los Angeles viable.  Once gas is far more expensive, they won't be viable for single rider automobiles.  Road fuel is likely to be rationed anyway. Long bus manufacturers.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 13:54 | 2036078 xela2200
xela2200's picture

I got to say that I am proud of my home state Florida. Our governor told Obama where He can stick his high speed train. Sure some complained, especially unions, but after the money for building is gone, the state has to maintained the infrastructure. A perpetual liability with no social benefit.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 14:55 | 2036273 optimator
optimator's picture

Connecticut has a grant to build a bus lane between Hartford and New Britain.  Will carry 16000 passengers a day.  No space has been designated for parking the 16000 vehicles of the riders.  Cost currently $1000.00 per inch.  Only the politicos were behind this upcoming boondoggle that the public can't stop.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 13:42 | 2036034 css1971
css1971's picture

They should be looking at locally developed technologies like PRT instead. High speed rail is...

  • Hugely, mind bogglingly expensive.
  • Unlikely to make any dent at all in traffic problems. Only a tiny percentage can replace their car journies with rail.
  • Slow. There is a tradeoff between the number of stops which massively reduce the average speed, and access to the line. You can either limit stations or you limit speed.
  • Environmentally unfriendly; The infrastructure is huge, the energy consumption of the trains is huge per passenger mile.

It is however a great way to subsidise city centers, banks, contractors and commuters.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 14:10 | 2036118 xela2200
xela2200's picture

The most stupid argument I hear in favor of high speed train is that China or France, or whomever has the fastest train on the planet. Like that is some sort of national embarrassment for the US. Eisenhower made a decision to create the highway system as our main transportation and freight infrastructure. The US has been investing since the 1950s in highways. Other countries went with trains like France, Japan, etc. Add to that a developed air transportation network, and that is why trains don't make economic sense in most parts of the US. California as always trying to place a square peg in a round hole. Capitalism might need some tweaking, but socialism is completely unusable. Better money could be spent fixing our ports to accommodate post expansion of the Panama Canal.

http://www.postbulletin.com/news/stories/display.php?id=1480862

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 13:14 | 2035942 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

I think we should invest in proven technology that doesn't need to be outsourced, pyramid building.

There are still masons around, right?

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:04 | 2037507 sgt_doom
sgt_doom's picture

You are aware, one hopes, that the workers on the pyramids were executed afterwards?  Evidently, they were supposed to be -- or contain -- some sort of secret!

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 14:00 | 2036094 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

All we need to do is predict where the "new ruins" will occur (no pyramid scheme's here in Cali) and then run the trains by there and train-stops between the ruins.  This should provide a profit center to the Sacrament-o.  After the ruins are freshly dead, there should be millions of tourists who want to watch what devolves.  There are some new ruins forming in Stockton...maybe run the train by there...and slow it down a bit to see the horrorshow.  The entire state of California might be considered the new "real-life" Adventureland...just fly in and fly out...and watch all the horrible burning ruins.  Might charge $100 a ticket.  ...  This will provide the impetus to slow-down that high-speed train.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 13:08 | 2035916 tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

California is already on the train to nowhere... The only benefit I see here is at least it will cause the inevitable train wreck to happen faster. This sight seeing tour in the old caboose is really getting painful.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 12:47 | 2035802 laomei
laomei's picture

They really just need to cut to the chase already.  Have China build the damn thing and have China own and operate it.  It's absolutely pathetic that you guys don't have a single mile of legitimate high speed rail and that your normal trains run at a speed which makes north korea blush.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 14:19 | 2036163 ddtuttle
ddtuttle's picture

America abandoned passenger rail travel in th 1960's.  However, we have a very efficient freight train system.  The problem is Amtrak is forced to run on frieght tracks which in many cases are not safe for passenger travel.  Hence the excruciatingly slow speeds.  (Don't you love bureaucrats?) The NYC commuter system uses "passenger only" tracks and runs pretty well.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 12:38 | 2035750 Iconoclast
Iconoclast's picture

God that's a depressing but good read..

Wtf will happen to the USA post squeezing oil out of old toothpaste tubes? It's so vast and has no alternative to the car.. What do you guys pay in fuel tax, 40 c on the gallon? Fukc..if you had the equivalent to UK or European tax you'd be fukced..properly skewered..

You might want to think about foreign crusades to steal oil, that might help for a few years..oh...er...

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 16:04 | 2036565 moondog
moondog's picture

The alternatives will be what they were 100 years ago, buy/build/grow/manufacture locally. Life will return to being more simple. I for one hope for this option. FUCK big corporations and globalism.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 15:00 | 2036289 blu
blu's picture

The prospects over here in that regard are unimaginably bleak. Simply ruinous.

But the MSM/BigOil propaganda machine is in full-tilt spin cycle and so the bitching from the peanut gallery never veers too far from price.

This nation will not hold together in the absence of cheap oil and ubiquitous motoring. We won't even be able to move food across the continent without cheap oil. But nobody in a position of influence (not a single soul) cares about that, and so we inch ever closer to a terminal decline.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 18:01 | 2037150 Ropingdown
Ropingdown's picture

"The prospects over here in that regard...."  This is silly.  Freight trains are extremely efficient and can deliver food around the country with very little electricity and diesel fuel or plant oils.  If you bought more local produce and meat you wouldn't need so much transport.  HSR, by the way, is not in any nation today an efficient means to transport food other than Foi Gras.   The cost of such railroads is staggering.  We vacation in our house in Southern Spain each year and I've observed the developments.  All I can say is "thank god they built all the new HSR and highways in southern Spain before the big debt collapse began."   They're already turning off the lights on the highways because neither the towns nor the regional government wants to pay for the lights.    France could have twice the good highways without the TGVitesse...but then what would the bankers and beaurocrats travel in to save the prescious time they need in which to formulat more delaying proposals?

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 17:51 | 2037096 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Steam locomotives that run on American Coal; for like 500 years.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 18:11 | 2037178 Ropingdown
Ropingdown's picture

Excellent idea.  Run it up the deserts.  Local light rail at either end.  Use the money saved to pay for a public education system of the quality that CA USED to have.  Alternative: Downtown-to-downtown dirigibles, helium lift and electric powered motors, two big wires running on pylons the entire route.  Minimum devastation of the land, good views for the travelers, relatively low cost for the electrification.  Dirigible cost is up to what travellers wish to spend.  Deluxe.  Spartan.  OR how abotu a large inland salt-water canal? Create fresh water inland by osmosis, run high-speed hovercraft up and down it non-stop.  Option for executive/politician yachts.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 12:37 | 2035745 Cyrano de Bivouac
Cyrano de Bivouac's picture

First link of the system is to be between Bakersfield and Fresno. Nowhere to nowhere.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 14:37 | 2036221 buffettwanab
buffettwanab's picture

One of the best laughs of many from my homestate run by retards.

High speed at Bakersfield and Fresno, is one of the most assinine things ive ever heard. At least run it from LA to Vegas ill do that, hookers, Coke, Vegas baby all at high speed.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 17:44 | 2037059 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

illegal mexicans get a free tour of New California

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 18:14 | 2037189 Ropingdown
Ropingdown's picture

or....illegal mexicans get high speed ride southbound to fill empty coaches...mexican dope can ride northbound so at least we can take a  percentage from the distribution of it...

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 12:13 | 2035634 MrBoompi
MrBoompi's picture

Why do we let companies inflate the prices once they have signed a contract?  Why do the taxpayers get screwed?  We see it with everything from fighter jets to bridges.  How about we say it's your responsibilty to cover additional costs, not us, to these people?

 

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 11:57 | 2035542 Shadowsil
Shadowsil's picture

Here in CA we have a radio station that tells us mainly why its failing..

Cause half of the crooks involved with this project have already taken the money and been paid UMTEEN amounts of money for so called outsourcing, contract parameters, looking for firms to do the work etc..

Now how the Hell can any of these guys get paid for a project that hasnt started, has no contractors, has no sub contractors, has had zero work done on the ground or anywhere at all.

Basically California gave up their share as well as the Govt and they already distributed the money to their crooked ass fucking friends of friends of family of friends. And now they are asking for more.

Great job U.S. GOvt and CA. Thanks for all the money you guys put into this fucking mess..

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 12:11 | 2035620 trav7777
trav7777's picture

the USA isn't even pretend honest anymore.  Everyone steals.  It's over.  You can't have a successful society with ghetto values and morality.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 12:47 | 2035799 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

You racist asswipe.
Corruption "trickles down" from the highest levels down to the "ghetto".
And at the highest levels you have the ivy league lily white scumbags from whose boots you so much like to lick the shit off.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 13:10 | 2035927 indio007
indio007's picture

Uhmmm ... it's actually you that is the racist. You're the one that equated ghetto with race. 

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 11:47 | 2035505 Cole Younger
Cole Younger's picture

No one is going to use it. The central valley population is farmers and ranchers. It will be a complete failure and a waist of money.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 13:42 | 2036007 IQ 101
IQ 101's picture

They have a nice system in place in Anaheim known as the Disney land monorail, if they extend that up to Bakersfield then Fresno?

It would be a start! and the 3000  families remaining in Fresno could visit Mickey and Goofy once a year if they let them pay with food stamps.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 14:39 | 2036228 buffettwanab
buffettwanab's picture

Goofy and Mickey are in Sacremento now.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 11:53 | 2035532 divide_by_zero
divide_by_zero's picture

And the central valley is de-populating, ~50% unemployment in places.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 11:59 | 2035550 fourchan
fourchan's picture

they are trying to force a 500,000,000 dollar train on detroit to the subburbs, are they insane detroit?

im calling it the crime train because rapists drugdealers and homeless will be the only riders.

 

our government has completely lost its mind.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 16:22 | 2036630 Freddie
Freddie's picture

This has nothing to do about who rides the train.  It is about kickbacks and contracts to their pals.  It is about getting govt unionized cronies to run and repair the trains.  Plus way over budget crap and theft.  Also all their cronies will own land that gets bought for the right of way for 10x the land value or more.  

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