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California’s High-Speed Rail To Nowhere
Wolf Richter www.testosteronepit.com
I have used high-speed rail extensively in Europe and Japan. For medium distances, from city center to city center, it’s faster than flying. In the US, there is only the Acela Express, which runs on old track. I took it countless times from Manhattan to DC. It was hassle free and fast. High-speed rail works. But not the way California is doing it.
They offered voters a plan and a website with renderings of cool-looking trains. It would connect LA and the Bay Area with extensions to San Diego and Sacramento. The initial stage would be funded with California general obligation bonds and federal dollars. The vast majority would be funded later in some unknown manner. Cost would be $35.7 billion. Voters approved it by referendum (Proposition 1A). That was November 2008.
By November 2011, cost estimates had ballooned to $98.5 billion. Voters realized they’d been had and became restless. The California High-Speed Rail Authority (CHSRA) made a formal request for $2.7 billion—the first tranche of the $9.95 billion in Prop 1A bonds. The federal government would chip in $3.5 billion. It would fund a 130-mile segment of civil works and track between Bakersfield and Fresno in the Central Valley. However, it would lack electrification as well as high-speed train control and communication systems. So it can’t be used as testing ground for high-speed trains. At the most, it might be used by regular diesel trains.
And now another hullabaloo erupted: The California High-Speed Rail Peer Review Group recommended in its letter to the legislature that the project be put on hold. It points at a number of fundamental issues, particularly the fact that long-term funding has not been identified. In light of the current budget fiasco, future funding for the project might not materialize, which would leave California with a useless section of high-cost rail in the Central Valley.
The CHSRA shot back with a press release that called the letter "deeply flawed, in some areas misleading and its conclusions unfounded." It used terms like "egregious errors,” “unsupported assertions," and "unfounded assumptions." And politicians began another round of public arm wrestling.
But the dominant economic problem inherent in the project isn’t even discussed: not much high-level work will be done in the US. The worldwide leaders are companies in Japan, Germany, France, Canada, and China (with IP appropriated from foreign partners). And they’ve been lobbying the government for years.
Siemens, which builds the German high-speed trains, is well established in the US and has been waging a publicity campaign. Roelof van Ark, a former executive of Alstom, the French TGV builder, is the CEO of the CHSRA. And Governor Schwarzenegger made a special trip to China—that was well before the horrific high-speed rail accident near Wenzhou in July that killed 40 people. An investigation pinpointed some causes: equipment, procedures, and corruption. It put a damper on California’s enthusiasm for Chinese trains.
California has a history of farming out its infrastructure projects. Exhibit A: The San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge. It is years behind schedule. The budget for the eastern span has ballooned from $1.3 billion to $6.3 billion. And the landmark 525 ft. tower of the "self-anchored suspension" bridge was fabricated in ... China. For more on collapsed bridges and buildings in China (pics), the high-speed rail accident, and the economics of having a big part of the Bay Bridge built there, read.... Our Chinese Bay Bridge.
The high-speed rail system will have even more foreign content. Building the civil works and laying the track will be done by local workers. But design and engineering will be done overseas by companies with expertise in the field. Trains will be designed and manufactured overseas as well, though companies might promise to assemble them in the US. Mere crumbs. US Taxpayers will fund the project—as they fund highway construction. But part of the funds will go to foreign companies and advance their technologies. High-speed rail is a worldwide business, and the leaders have become export powerhouses. Yet it's another sector that American industry abandoned long ago.
Is the auto industry next? Practically every car or truck sold in the US today contains Chinese-made components, though Chinese-designed vehicles haven't made it yet. Chinese automakers scramble to move from shoddy copy-and-paste models to products that would be competitive in the US. A government priority. And they’re getting there through the back door.... The US Auto Industry Drifts Off To China.
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because of one demographic, the people who would pay for mass transit are afraid to ride it. Meanwhile, the disproportionality in things like farejumping is the same as with other crimes.
There's a reason why certain suburbs reject mass transit endpoints.
You betcha'
In the beginning of the article you stated "The federal government would chip in $3.5 billion.". Please, let's stop using this language. It should read "The US Taxpayers would chip in $2 billion and Federal Government would BORROW another $1.5billion to subsidize the project". OK?
Note: you kinda got it right in the 2nd to last paragraph.
This is what happens when the job market steers our best and brightest into bond flipping, hedge fund racketeering, and commodities trading, instead of creating things of real economic value. We don’t design, develop, or build many successful technologies anymore (see Solyndra), but, we sure have a good time financing the hell out of them.
well, the usury racket is historically associated with a particular set of people who now dominate policy and the message. Did you expect them to NOT bring their cultural norms with them?
The USA is not an industrial nation any longer. We make money like the English used to, by discounting bills and overissuing notes. This was the gift that the Rothschild takeover of the BoE provided, a way to make money via parasitism instead of work.
You mean Christians?
If it makes me feel good who cares what it costs someone else?
Cheese, Gromit, it's a lovely bit of Cheese !
"High-speed rail works"
High-speed rail is BANKRUPT
ALL-speed rail is bankrupt... and has been for 100 years
There fixed it
Zero is right all speed rail is finished.
Its a god damn shame, take a drive almost anywhere in this country and look closely at the abandoned and torn up tracks overgrown with brush. It speaks to a once awesome rail system that served both transport and industry. LOOK at almost any old photo or postcard and you will see a train or trolley in every one. fast forward to today and we get the "rail trails" where yuppies can ride their mountain bikes without ever encountering mud or rocks and 20 something couples can walk their retrievers. Does no one stop to think what these rail lines meant to this country or what has happened to the industrial base that they once served?
Manhattan has its share of " property value increasing" bullshit too - the Hi Line elevated railway that onced served the west side of the Island - FRIEGHT RAIL SERVICE DIRECTLY INTO your manufacturing building, served by the traveling bridge - a moving loading ramp that was fixed to a pier that allowed barges carrying rail cars to be directly unloaded on to city streets from the Hudson river then up and on to the high line.
Now whats left of the High Line is a pedicured rail trail three stories in the air.
Nevermind the fact that we cant even take a train directly to any of the NYC area airports, ahhhh yes the JFK Airtrain - are you kidding me - its a great way to add an hour or two on to your trip. No comparison to Europe.
The Govt has wanted to end rail travel for over half a century and by all accounts they have succeeded.
In USA mass-transit developed after 1960's, approximately 50% of rail ridership in metropolitan areas is by Government Employees. Its a self-funded promotional feed-back loop with taxpayer dollars to GREECE the skids. No joke its a tragedy. Got tix ?
um, the rail networks in Europe operate at a profit. Japan, ditto.
The cost to build a rail network is immaterial. The only thing that matters is can the cost be reasonably ammortized over 30 years with passenger revenue. The deciding factor is pretty much population density as follows:
Japan No 38 in pop density
Europe between 30th (Netherlands) and 98th (Italy)
US - No 179th
Japan has a density almost 5 times the US and Europe's density is 2-5 times the density. When you factor in Japan,s and Europe,s propensity to develop urban areas versus suburban sprawl, one can make a good argument for rail transportation in that part of the world.
In the US, about the only 2 places where high speed rail might reasonably work without HUGE on-going subsidies would be the Boston - DC corridor and perhaps NY-Chicago. LA-SF has flights about every 30 minutes all day long, only time there can be a problem is week-ends.
If California is looking for largeer infrastructure projects how about starting with the I-10 between LA and Ontario. The joints where the slabs connect are now so raised that the tire noise is deafening making the ride uncomfortable. The surface of Highway 99 between Sacramento and the Grapevine is horrible, the concrete must have been poured over 30 years ago. Then there are the pot holes and crappy surfaces in nearly every street in LA.
There are tons of infrastructure projects that need attention in CA - bridges, levies, highways, etc. CA has an ample supply of Civil Engineers and construction companies so that nearly all of the economic benifit from design, labor and materials could remain in CA and the US.
I guess none of this stuff is as sexy as building a high speed train. We truly are doomed.
That stretch of I-10 PROVES that LA is a 3rd world city. On many LA freeways, they have increased traffic capacity by ELIMINATING road shoulders and/or by re-drawing lane boundaries. You wake up one morning and presto, your 4 lane expressway turned into a 5 lane expressway overnight. In some cases, bridge overpass support pillers in the center of the freeway literally cause a small intrusion into the left lane of travel. Sometimes my commute reminds me of "Death Race 2000" (that would be just before traffic density causes average vehicle speed to drop from 70 to walking speed in the space of 200 yards).
It only takes the plane about an hour to get from SF to LA, but with all the bullshit (thanks TSA) one needs to leave his home 2 to 3 hours before the flight leaves. Then there's the problem at the other end -- rent a car because you can't there from here. It takes about 5 or 6 hours to drive to LA from the Bay Area. It's a nasty boring drive, but that's the most practical way get there. Flying is not usually faster, just more of a hassle -- you do get a free body inspection and Xrays too, though -- and more expensive.
Huge subsidies.
You mean like US airplane companies?
And the freight must mostly run at night so they don't interfere with passenger service.
At least most European systems connect together somehow so you can get from A to B without a taxi. Train stations at airports -- what an idea!
As acountry, our operating methodology for competing in a globalised economy is seriously flawed and none of the idiots in charge get it or care to get it.
I am pretty sure they get it. Their "personal" incentives are aligned in a way so that they get more money for themselves and bigger businesses to run if they abandon America and abandon product areas in favor of others, such as banking (take GE for example).
Another issue is that once they abandon an area such as locomotives, no other company can rise to take their place because of the regulations they and other monopolistic companies lobbied to put in place to ring fence their business... and who would fund a new business in trains if not underwritten by a big company such as GE.
This is essentially why solar is dying here in the US, while it has thrived in Germany and China. The US has ceased to be the land of opportunity and is now the land of the quick financial scam and the corrupt political system. Maybe its "so called" leaders are beyond redemption. I believe the people are worth saving.
usury drives out productive endeavor. THIS IS WHY it was effectively BANNED by two major religions for most of the past 2000 years.
The people who practice usury are for THIS REASON reviled. The usurers don't care about production, advancement, ANYTHING other than seeking RENT. This is why they are hated.
Making money via the counterfeiting of usury and the inflation creditmoney system was more profitable and far easier than building things.
You're on a roll today.
all three actually, but don't let me stop you.
I like cake! It tastes good....
It is a waste of money, since everything east of the San Andreas fault is soon to slide into the Atlantic Ocean.
Uh, Bob: East of the San Andreas fault sliding into the Atlantic Ocean? That would leave the USA as only the California coast. A bit of a stretch but possible, if not improbable.
There was a short story in a Science Fiction magazine to that effect, back around 1970. Analog was, I believe, the magazine in which it appeared. Congratulations on reviving the idea.
But it will create jobs! And green ones at that.
Wouldn't that be wonderful?
And it would be a great reason to expand the TSA!
Now to speed up the inspection process, and provide ample funding, we need to specify special double-decker "inspection cars" with upstairs private inspection lounges. The government will fully staff with buxom blonde female inspectors wearing only white. Because of the sensitive nature of the inspections, every passenger will get their own inspection room, with bedding, and overnight accomodations if the inspections become too laborious or complex. Due to the highly stressful nature of these inspections, full video and wetbar will be provided, slippers and robe. This new train will be outsourced to the Caligula Caboose Company...CEO will be Arnold...
This would be a valuable use of taxpayer dollars...and they should have gambling cars between the inspection cars, and a sauna car would be required too. Can we spec that out ?
I'd pay $200 for a ticket on that train...and its deductable too.
Don't start the Revolution without me!
It is time!
This shit is WAAAYYYYY out of line!
"from city center to city center, it’s faster than flying. "
The TSA will have none of that efficient and threatening foolishness here.
Besides, isn't that central valley scheduled to be an inland sea after the 2012 event?
Hey, if there is cash involved, then time to let the pals wet their beaks. Long range planning you say? Poppycock, this is real money for real friends, let them eat roadbed. Long range vision is for suckers!
most rail is just another perennially subsidized government boondoggle welfare program, and will cars with less money for the roads they travel on be going down the road of the dinosaur?
Indeed. The president of the CHSRA, who runs exactly ZERO miles of rail, makes about the same has the CEO of Ramtrack...who mostly puts passengers on buses, because the trains out here are never running.
We cannot even do low speed rail correctly in SoCal. It should be possible to at least get from Downtown to LAX, entirely by rail. MetroStink goes near (not to, just near) cargo terminals. on the other side of the runways from the passenger terminals. No such luck for passengers.
High speed clusterfuck
Hey -- taxi drivers need tits to suck too. There is a similar situation at Oakland Airport with BART -- no way to cheaply get from here to there.
The only sector we have left is the bombs, bombers, and bullets sectors. As for future traveling in the U.S. once nobody can afford cars? Let them eat cake.
Hm, JSF scam gone to the crapper ....
How to play Su-35S, PAK FA .... ?
I'm sure GS advises strong buy of LockMart & Gaytheon. :-P
Wrongo Bongo Buddy. THE USA HAS AMERICAN BREED AND CORN_FED MEAT-MUPPETS FOR EXPORT INTO ANY FIELD OF BATTLE.
Luv,
Senators Graham, McCain & LIberman.