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Mr. Krasting, Once again I appreciate you taking my jousting pretty well.
Nonetheless---you're full of shit. If you think inflation is a problem, buy food inputs, buy oil, buy gold, by anything you see the price rising. Buy fucking macadamia nuts...
BUT DON'T TELL ME YOU ARE HOLDING CASH IN ONE BLOG POST AND THEN BITCH ABOUT INFLATION IN THE NEXT POST 15 MINUTES LATER---AS IT MAKES YOU LOOK LIKE A DUMB-ASS. You can't have it both ways Krasting.
Confidence is gone...I not one to "invest" in a fraudelant, manipulated, ponzi scheme. I continue moving what I do have in 401k's and IRA's to the exits.
Pretty simple really - Spend less than you make, resolve your debts (pay off or default), become self sufficient, stack excess in things of utility (unlevered rentals, productive famland, etc.) or PMs or that which you have faith in.
All the numbers we see flashing, the reds and greens, it's all illusion. The mathmatically impossible returns of the scam mean whatever short term gain is available is far outweighed by the midterm / longterm risk...not to mention investing in something which is harmful to society and thus the need to progpigate the fraud to avoid personal losses.
Exactly how long ago was our terminally unhappy Mr. Krasting bitching about inflation in America??? Can someone remind me or are all the ZH nitwits short-term memories THAT bad???
[pause 15 seconds while idiots scratch the side of their forehead]
Nevermind, it was mainly a rhetorical question.
CPI-W is up 4.2% YoY. Damn right I'm bitching about inflation. We had a promise from Bernanke to get his foot off the gas when core reached 2%. We are running at 2.5% and Benny has his foot planted on the pedal.
Manipulation of the inflation numbers through rents, and dumping of USTs by FCBs looks like a short dollar.......again........the NAS100 is only a 100 points from its July 26 top.
Looks like the Price Puppet Theatre from this seat.
Not shorting against this shit. Buckle up.
I think we are in for a BIG coordinated surprise AND LOTS OF CONFUSION. Slovakia.......kISS THAT DREAM OF RESISTANCE gOODByE.
a FRIEND wRoTe ThIs POEM
Tied to a rocket
Outta my hands
The key is in your back pocket
List your demands
Truth of the matter is countervailing forces. USA in a credit crunch, which causes disinflation. China has been pouring on the credit with steroids, driving commodity demand higher and prices as well. China will experience a crunch when their banks go bust. Then the whole globe will be in a credit crisis, especially as the German machine tanks due to reduced Chinese demand for high end capital equipment and automobiles, among other exports. Prices will fall
The only question is how badly does the Fed overreact in its efforts to fight the falling prices? That they will pump in liquidity is beyond doubt. But will it be enough to trigger vastly higher commodity prices? if so, wait for the street riots; wages will not keep up
You a buddy of Bruce's broker? You come across as a bitter shill.
Stock dividend yields are also pathetically low. The risk/reward just isn't in my favor.
I can make 4% dividend yield but lose three years worth of dividends in a market dive when more fraud is uncovered in the international banking sector.
So much cash is "on the sidelines" because people realize the market is way over-valued when looking at dividend yields. The only hope is flipping stocks to someone else willing to pay more. But that strategy looks increasingly shitty when looking at the Millenial generation that is loaded with debt and has no jobs.
Cash it is for now.
What does anything relating to financial news have to do with it? Do you really think MMs look at anything other than who has taken positions against them? We really do have a very large educated group of clueless investors with money, being advised by a very large educated group of clueless stock brokers.
In my estimation, government borrowing is about to go into overdrive, increasing the money supply, due to twist. The Fed is trying to spend the money it makes on MBS and Treasury interest by pumping it back into different debt markets. But normally, the Fed pays this interest and profit back to the Treasury after taking a cut. What I see coming is the Fed being forced to step up and buy even more government debt in the near future due to the Treasury funding demands increased by actually having to pay out interest to the real market.
The end game, in reality, is the Treasury finding some accounting gimmick that allows it to borrow from itself to cover for the Fed now that it is under so much scrutiny. Which is really just a mask on printing. It is the same thing as raiding SS. It was just a gimmick to allow the gov to borrow from itself.
What is the government going to start borrowing for?
Oh, yea, right....Iran. I guess there are some holes to dig in Iran.
They already borrow 40% of what they spend each year just to function. All they need to do is exist to keep borrowing.
With so much cash on the sidelines, you're correct that is has to go somewhere. In any and all of the scenarios you mentioned, the dollar will eventually be crushed. Would you really want to get back into equities in that case? I still think the only answer is commodities. Maybe not short term, but if your goal is wealth preservation, it's the only thing that makes sense.
In My opinion money will remain in cash. Doesn't matter if its earning zero interest. Earning Zero is better than losing money. Putting Money into stocks while the US economy is headed into recession would be foolish. Putting Money into bonds that are near all time highs is also equally foolish. Commodities will fall when the economy hits the recession (or double dip since we really never left the first recession). Currently the least of the worst invesment strategy is to park in cash. Wait for stock and commodities to fall and then decide to buy. Buying probably won't begin until either the Federal gov't passes another stimulus (unlikely until post Nov 2012) or Bernanke formally announces QE3.
The stock market is probably about 25% overpriced now.
The Wilshire 5000 is selling at a P/E of 15 and earnings estimates for Q4 and 2012 are coming down fast. The more they are slashed the more desperate clamor for market rallies you´ll hear.
My only comment is - use ZH as a way to stay apprised of the risks. Don't become a SHTF ZHer / gold bug. Those guys staid bearish March 2009.
The world isn't ending. Stocks are FAIRLY valued if no recession, overvalued if double dip (SPX 900), and significantly overvalued if 2nd financial crisis (SPX 650). Now put in your own %s for each one and come up with buy and short targets.
So far I've been buying in low 1,100s and selling in low 1,200s. Ive been using UMDD so really it was buy at 50 sell at 60. 2 caveats. When buying I was cautious. Never went all in at 50. Had money to double down at 40 and 30. Also, never waited till 60 to start selling.
Also, the % change. What used to be buy at 50 sell at 60 is now buy at 40 and sell in 50s.
Caution and incrementalisim is why I'm only up 45% since Sept instead of up 100%+. But as previous poster implied perma bulls, perma bears and pigs get eaten. Only the nimble and cautious survive.
Yes, don't be a crazy goldbug. You'd only be up 17% YTD.
Roadkill, your assertion that "Stocks are FAIRLY valued if no recession" must be based on the assumption that the analyst use the fraudulant acccounting methods used by public companies to report their earnings and cash flow, correct? In other words, if we you use the "new" way of evaluating companies that uses corrupt accounting practices in order to make the numbers look better we should be okay, right?
I just want to clarify, because most readers here at ZH recognize that most companies would not be "public" if they were truly profitable. Afterall, why take a company public if it is profitable? In today's capital markets, most profitable companies have no problem accessing capital, so there is absolutely no need for them to be public unless they are not profitable or marginally profitable and need Wall Street to continuously put lipstick on them to make them look suitable for people willing to use aggressive (fraudulant) accounting.
The bottom line is the U.S. public stock market is grossly overvalued if you use real accounting; the fact that most analysts do not doesn't change the fact that the market for public companies stock is nothing more than an extension of the Federal Reserves fiat ponzi scheme designed to loot the masses to enrich the few.
....most companies would not be "public" if they were truly profitable. Afterall, why take a company public if it is profitable?....
Your kidding right? Think about what you said. Public companies may not stay profitable but profitable companies certainly do go public.
When you make a trade do you never sell the positions that are above water?
Be neither a Bull nor a Bear nor a Pig. BE AN ALLIGATOR as he eats all three! Learn to day trade and option trade as volatility will be your friend and hedged or flat overnight you'll sleep well.
Hope you know what you'e doing. Those be humans...and they like alligator boots, too.
Hey Bruce, great work ! I have one for you.
The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index.
Make sure you click on the "compare to industrial production" tab for the big surprise !
Big trouble comes our way ?
Alarming news for the third quarter and beyond
MINNEAPOLIS, Minn. & LOS ANGELES, Calif., October 12, 2011 The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index®(PCI®), issued today by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Ceridian Corporation, fell 1.0 percent in September on a seasonally and workday adjusted basis, following a 1.4 percent decline in August and a 0.2 percent decline in July.
With hopes that September data would be positive, last month we wrote ‘Based on the July and August data, the PCI will likely decline in the third quarter and this suggests GDP growth of zero to 1.0 percent.’ Ed Leamer, chief economist for the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index and director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast said, “With the continued weakness in September, the PCI-based forecast for third quarter GDP growth is zero.”
Over the past three months, compared to the prior three months, the PCI declined at an annualized rate of 4.3 percent. The rate of decline in the third quarter has been exceeded only in the deep recession of 2008/09, and tied only once outside of recessions, in March 2000.
On a year-over-year basis, the PCI was down 0.2 percent in September. This month, the year-over-year change was below last year for the first time since May 2011, or the second time since January 2010; over the past four months, the year-over-year change has been rapidly declining. “Businesses appear to be unwilling to restock for a potentially vibrant holiday season at the same time as normal and they are planning to ramp up inventories late this year, if and when the sales start to materialize,” explained Leamer.
Due to the continued weakness in the PCI, our forecast for September Industrial Production is a 0.55 percent decline when the government estimate is released on October 17.
The complete September report, regional analysis and additional commentary are available at www.ceridianindex.com or by contacting email@example.com. The site offers further detail such as Index graphs and downloadable data, video commentary and sound bites, information on how the data is obtained, and the opportunity to receive updates on the latest information via e-mail and RSS feeds.
About Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index
The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® is based on real-time diesel fuel consumption data for over the road trucking and serves as an indicator of the state and possible future direction of the U.S. economy. By tracking the volume and location of fuel being purchased, the index closely monitors the over the road movement of raw materials, goods-in-process and finished goods to U.S. factories, retailers and consumers. Working with economists at UCLA Anderson School of Management and Charles River Associates, Ceridian provides the Index monthly. Ceridian is a global business services company providing electronic and stored value card payment services and human resources solutions. UCLA Anderson School of Management is perennially ranked among top-tier business schools in the world. Charles River Associates is a leading global consulting firm that offers economic, financial, and business management expertise to organizations around the world.
For additional information on the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index, please visit www.ceridianindex.com.
I'm short and willing to ride out any short term pain. The fundamentals are horrible - any cash on the sidelines that does flood into the market will be siphoned off quickly.
The jig is up.
the reelection campaign depends on this, its too minor (12K DOW) and a return YOY which beats bonds, to leave the Fed trading desk unattended. sure we killed the bond, now we'll save the stock market. bernanke is some kind of superhero isn't he? well at least he is when he has 90 days to pull off a couple percent gain, and indefinite resources. this is a slam dunk, after Jan 1?? who can say?
my guess is we'll continue to rally, because there is no problem too big to kick the can down the road. and then we have election year magic. this thing won't be resolved until 2013 at least. it was 2003 when Bush managed to pull the stock market out of a nose dive. Obama has the playbook, rally on.
what bruce has described is a depression; understand this a depression is not where no one has money but rather where people with money do not want to own shit; the best description of a depression was found in a novel butterfield 8 by john o'harra; read it & understand what is happening
Yer right it is a depression, the New Great Depression or GD2.
Roubini has an interesting take on our current global mess:
click the link at the bottom of the page to read the entire 35 page proposal. he makes some good observations.
im common folk. short the market with etfs. DOG and SH. this market move is irrational.....
So with all the money in t-bills and cash what happens if the US does this again.
"This fractional gold reserve imbalance is the one imbalance the media and governments do not want you to know about. This is the one that will RESET the entire system. This imbalance, once corrected, will make central bank fiat currencies sustainable once again. This is why they are net buyers! Here at FOFOA, we like to call it FREEGOLD!
Do I think this magnitude of a reset could happen overnight? Yes, I do. Why? Because that is the way you get the most "bang for your buck". Surprise is the order of the day! "Devaluations always happen by complete surprise as to exert maximum leverage effect."
It matters not one iota how well you do in the stock and bond markets leading up to the reset. Neither does it matter what the "gold market" does between now and then. The ONLY thing that matters is how you are positioned on that one - fateful - day! Everything will be reset and surprises will abound."
It is dangerous to be all in anything at this time and that includes all in cash.
There is a good argument to be made to be in 100% physical gold. Not right now IMO but I understand the logic.
SPX moves up 12 percent in seven days and then they call you?
I dont give a F+++k how many handles they zip the s and p in an 1 hour
from 1070 to 1102 and catch the shorts,
buy vix, sell puts, sell vix buy cheap calls, and keep your cash safe
from hyperinflation, w the bernanke gang, and short bonds on every
chart point.... you will get a move gold/ bonds/ silver/ stocks/ that will
eat the chart on limit moves 2-3 days before they spurt QE 345678910,
and flail out the scam again, and again and again. using the HFT
boys as the whips last hour...every day LOL
Gingrich is right......many should be in jail
Newt is just trying to avoid his appointment with the "sharp edge" of history.
you mean Gingrich the adulterer throwing political stones at another whore.........what a fucking pimp/whore/pimp, just like the rest. get real.
Oh dear, an adulterer? Why, that's just awful.
Grow some balls mate. Pussy is GOOD. Spreading your genes around is GOOD. Why the hell do you think you're here?
yeah - I fucked your mum. Just dont call me 'Dad" in front of these NICE people
charming but, the more salient error made by RoRo is that he evoked the image of Newt sexing it up. And then there's the instant character attack on Newt as opposed to a reasoned response to what AC or Newt actually said.
Talk is cheap... and Newt always did know how to talk but Newt's talk is even cheaper. That's the point.
yeah, i get the point. I'm no fan of Newt's but even less of a fan of ad-hom attacks.
did you watch the Charlie Rose/republican debate with;
Romney, the smiling dickhead,
Perry, the dickhead from Teaxass
and, what the fuck is her name from dancing with stars?
Gingrich is a hypocrite and a liar........it is not an attack. it is reality......you're dumber than i thought.
We've been hearing all the pundits talk about cash on the sidelines and how it just has to come into the market. Perhaps the reason it doesn't make it into the market is that corporations and individuals alike realize that nothing has been fixed and that recent events may have a high likelyhood of repeating. In that event, they would then have to become their own bank and provide their customers with liquidity just to survive.
Call your Senator for his FTZ stock list Bruce. Sheep are tasty in a wolf market. If you seek fact's thats another issue. I like you will wait till there is frost on the pumpkin. Great acticle again ty
When someone is buying stocks, someone else is selling. The same amount of cash remains on the sidelines, unless it's an IPO. What kind of idiot broker do you have Bruce? When all the wealth management clients are getting back in, there's an equal number of dollars coming out, probably with a 'sold to you, sucker!' from some smart money somewhere.
most of the "cash on the sidelines" belongs to the 1%, and very soon may belong to the "other 99%"
Totally agree with your cash call Bruce.
USD denominated accts have picked up signifcant gains over 60 days on currency appreciation (far above what can be earned elsewhere) alone so who cares if cash money earns zero interest rate.
Cash is Mobile.........so, it is all relative.
11,750 looks like a next reasonable target for the DOW.
I think Mervyn King hit it out as a forerunner of much more printing to come. Kind of reminds me of 2009 and then arepeat 2010. Both times the market was initially secptical and reluctant to get long.
I think King's statement last week (sacrifice pensioners and savers) was a repeat of Bullard's NYT leadin to JH last year. The difference this year is scale and it looks global.
Slovakia, city state over ruling the EFSF?......steam-roll it.
Looking for a threepeat.......maybe way out of the money calls are cheap.
10,000 for IBEX may be a steal......who woulda thought.
Your work is WAY Ahead of the CuRVe
PS........not suggesting to get long here, but look for a pullback from possible triple top. If the S&P breaks 1225 then targets1255/60 it invalidates the series of lower tops since Aug 31.
Hi Bruce ;
why don't you buy Gold right now.? is there a specific reason that you are not buying?
Perhaps he is like me, and waiting for Gelt to go sub 1200......Make my day...!
Because it's in a bubble and has no value other then - ooohh pretty!
Economic collapse = deflation of commodities. And gold/silver are already MASSIVELY overvalued relative to copper, platinum, oil and food. You know, commodites that people actually need to live.
The only hope of the gold bugs is Bernake and Troika choose hyper inflation to solve debt problems instead of deflation and debt forgiveness / default. Won't happen. The 99% are already rioting. Hyper inflation is just wealth transfer from the 99% to commodity speculators. Deflation and debt forgiveness is far better for the commmon man.
Would you rather be a poor person I'n Japan or Zimbabwe?
If that's what you think, you should sell all of the gold you have.
What? You don't own any gold? You've never owned gold? You don't know anything about it?
I didn't think so.
Good Luck Bruce, I once was a bear of maximum proportion, the illusion of decline firmly entrenched in my mind and soul. Fundamentals untenable, economy on a global scale rolling over, big (french, german, united states, uk , italy and yes china) banks on the ropes but its all a fantasy of ours here. I've been here a while now and believed that financial justice would be served but NO it will not. We are the bag holders, the serfs, the deniers, the educated, the confused, the understanding, the Tylers. If we do not take matters into our own hands and co-opt the security, cops, janitors and the common person to set or allow us to set the charges then we are all just pissing into the wind. Make war not love, MAKE war not love, MAKE WAR not love, MAKE WAR NOT love, MAKE WAR NOT LOVE. MAKE WAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I know my enemy, do you!
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