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On China, Greece Playing Chicken, US Ponzinomics and the Inevitable Fall of Manhattan Real Estate
A 7 minute video of my opinions on Greek haircuts, US and Manhattan real estate overvaluation, China bubble busting and hard landings, Case Shiller shortcomings and Germany's penthouse suite in the EU roach motel.
Below I have aggregated hours worth of related content via video, blog postings and subscriber research...
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Related blog posts....
The Biggest Threat To The 2012 Economy Is??? Not What Wall Street Is Telling You...
Earlier this week I published a controversial rant on the US education system - How Inferior American Education Caused The Credit/Real Estate/Sovereign Debt Bubbles and Why It's Preventing True Recovery. This was a lengthy piece, but apparently caught the interest of many as it went semi-viral. This is part of the conclusion, attempting to show how US indoctrinated "GroupThink" prevents many (if not most) from seeing what empirically should be obvious.
The First Major Real Estate Collapse In Europe? I've Found The EU Equivalent Of GGP, The Largest Real Estate Failure In US History Monday, 19 December 2011
What many do not understand is that the real estate crash of the previous decade is far from over, because The True Cause Of The 2008 Market Crash Looks Like Its About To Rear Its Ugly Head Again, With A Vengeance. This is true for not only the US, but the EU countries as well. Unlike our European and Asian counterparts, many US investors are much too detached to what occurs overseas, quite possibly from a hubristic, apathetic or even ignorant stance that what happens over there has little effect on us stateside. Unfortunately, that is not the case. What do you think, pray tell, happens when the liquidity starved, capital deprived, overleveraged banks fail to roll over all of that underwater Eu mortgage debt?
Investors seeking safety in Germany, the UK and France may truly be in for a rude awakening!
Interesting Documentary on the Power of Rating Agencies, Reggie Middleton Excerpts
Continuing my rant on the effectiveness (not) of the ratings agencies, I bring to you an interesting documentary on the rating agencies' effect on the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, produced by VPRO Tegenlicht out of Amsterdam. You can see the full video here, but only about half of it is in English. I appear in the following spots: 4:00, 22:30, 40:00... Reggie Middleton Discussing the Rating Agencies effect on Sovereign Europe
Subscriber Research
Insurer at Risk Report_122511 - Professional/Institutional edition- Insurer at Risk Report_122511 -Retail edition
Insurance Cos. Operational Stress
Exposure of European insurers to PIIGS_051210- advertisements -
Far from a pile of junk Reggie but is there any chance you could boil your posts down to 1 succint topic at a time?
Having every topic under the Sun thrown into every post is like a rollercoaster with so many things passing by you so fast with so little time to digest... it's like a food fight at Pizza Hut
i'll try to comment on the above after about 3 weeks (in)digestion
Cheers Dude :-/
I keep coming back to the question of how production economies deal with shrinking markets. For the past 40 years, the answer has been to open up new markets and broaden the monetary base and resulting revenue. Unless they open up another planet, there aren't any more new markets.
http://thedailyclimb.wordpress.com/
About German immunity: I was driving today around in Hamburg - what hit me at first is huge amount of empty office spaces in a center of the city. It looks like total misallocation of capital.
In contrast, on periphery industrial sectors are full of real economy businesses and there are no signs of any empty spaces.
It looks like real economy is working but financial central-planned over-speculation has failed miserably.
Here's one idea:
"DEBT"URATION
Reg - BTW...
Who needs an ad agency when one can promote their services on ZH?
haha
;)
Way to go, Master Middleton - cheers!
And this guy Suttmeier says this may be ourlast chance to sell gold for dollars....Tell me what y'all think.
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/last-chance-sell-gold-suttmeier-...
Here's what I absolutely LOVE about all of these "pundits" - THEY HAVE BEEN - ARE STILL - AND WILL BE TOTALLY WRONG on Gold.
They have been totally wrong - ALL THE WAY UP GOLD'S CLIMB UP FROM $251.70 IN AUGUST, 1999.
The only other occupations where you can FAIL ON AN EPIC SCALE - and still have a J-O-B - is either at the Fed, at A Central Bank, or a weatherman!
Anything on AAPL?
Green Acres is the place to be...
Are Beijing home price falling or not? Beijing mirrors U.S. housing market bust
http://investinginchinesestocks.blogspot.com/2012/02/are-beijing-home-pr...
Reggie,
Good post, but the CRE mortgages will be rolled over by the current holders. What choice do they have? Take possesion of a depreciating asset, or extend and pretend?
Assume you are holding a 5 yr mortgage that's 20% underwater on a mall with negative cash flow. Your payments have been current, but you know that's because the REIT's other properties have been compensating for the cash leak. Your loan matures next month. What would you do? Take whatever money you can now and run (via foreclosure and distressed asset sale) or roll the loan over, hoping the REIT can still maintain payments as you both weight for 5% cap rates to return and the cash slushy funds generated by the home refi boom to kick back in effect?
Remember, he who panics first panics best!
Hello Reggie,
The collapse is near Sir ..
+5 for ya article
god bless you
Falling rents and rising cost of money is not good for commercial real estate....
But money rates have shown no sign of increasing.
Anyone out there have knowledge of trends in Manhattan rents?
Will be a great short sooner or later but timing is everything.
Reality transference: a global-wide Fukushima-like economic melt down and its Tepco is every central bank.
Does the private sector have enough tanks to do it?
So China has currency but doesn't have real moneyyyyyyy.....Interesting, they can't buy Manhattan when RE collapses...Who can?
Krugman is right, go attack the Martians and get them to invest in Manhattan....bitchezzz...
Debt saturation. The interest rates are relatively low everywhere. Once those rise, the debt load will explode taking entire corporations down with it. The event will begin within the private sector out of control of the CBs.
Have you chosen a spectacular name for the event? Looks like juicy...
"DEBT"-URATION!