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CNBC Favorite Dick Bove Admits To Being Wrong On Banks, But For The Right Reasons, But Those Reasons Are Still Wrong!!!

Reggie Middleton's picture





 

Last week I posted a rather scathing diatribe, basically ridiculing
the fact that Dick Bove get's so much MSM airtime for his virtually
consistently wrong calls and analysis (see the repost of that particular
rant towards the bottom of this article. It appears as if Mr. Bove may
have read said diatribe and used his cache with the MSM to post a
response. To wit:

Bove: Why I Was Wrong on Bank Stocks

With a month left in 2011 and—barring a miracle—bank stocks headed for a negative year, Dick Bove is admitting he was wrong.

This
is both commendable and respectable. It is honorable and healthy to
admit when you are wrong, and we all have the opportunity to do so since
nobody is right all of the time!

The
widely followed Rochdale Securities analyst has been telling investors
for a good portion of the year that banks have recovered from the
financial crisis and are in much better shape they were three years ago.

Yes
and no! They are in much better shape than they were three years ago,
but that is highly misleading because they were nearly all virtually
bankrupt. Now they are merely borderline bankrupt, but only if marked to
reality. ... And no, they have not recovered from the financial crisis
or rates would be above virtual ZIRP zone!

Investors, though, haven’t been biting.

Because they read BoomBustBlog!

Heading
into Monday’s aggressive rally, the Standard & Poor’s 500
financials were off 26.3 percent on the year, and the KBW Bank Index had
fallen 31 percent.

For
Bove—Rochdale’s vice president of equity research—the decline has been a
maddening ride spurred not by bank fundamentals but rather by
investors’ belief that no matter how good the earnings look or how loans
are performing or where capital levels stand, investor worry over
bigger factors takes precedence.

“The
macro factor will continue to be more important than the micro
factors,” Bove conceded over the weekend in a moderate mea culpa to
investors.

“On
periods like this analysts, like me, who rely on traditional parameters
like company results and historic relationships between interest rates
and earnings yields, are going to have a tough time.”

In essence, Bove argues that he was wrong for the right reasons.

This
is nonsense. With all due respect, you were a Dick that was wrong for
all of the wrong reasons. Earnings looked good because reporting
standards have been gutted allowing for the facade of performing loans
and reserve releases padded losses. Capital levels looked impressive to
the great unwashed because mark to fantasy allowed gaping capital
deficiencies to be glazed over.

Liquidity, capital, loan performance, revenue, profits—all the metrics by which one would traditionally analyze banks—look good.

But
worries over the world’s debt crises, particularly in Europe and the
U.S., are making risk-averse investors unwilling to buy the banks in
Bove’s coverage universe.

My Dick! European liquidity issues
threaten a US liquidity issue. Massive uncertainty caused by unreliable
and downright untrustworthy financial reporting has caused a deserved
discount to financial assets, which is why valuations have tumbled.

“The
divergence between the economic and financial fundamentals, on the one
hand, and the stock prices, on the other, reflects a change in risk
assumptions,” he wrote.

“For
multiple reasons, investors keep demanding a higher and higher risk
premium on common stock investments, in general, and in bank stocks, in
particular.”

Someone please see my statement above and explain it to Dick!

Boiling
down what he got wrong this year, Bove said: “I failed to understand
that the fears in the market concerning banking were so great that the
fundamental improvements in the economy, the industry, and companies
like Bank of America [BAC  5.2017    0.0317  (+0.61%)   ] and Citigroup [C  25.03    1.40  (+5.92%)   ] would simply be ignored.”

Still,
Bove believes that an improving economy and—in his view—the European
crisis actually benefiting rather than harming U.S. banks will justify
his optimistic outlook that persists for 2012, even if he’s been dead
wrong so far.

“Bank
stocks are being driven by fear despite the significant improvement in
the industry and individual company fundamentals. Presumably, at some
point, fear will either be realized or dissipate,” he told clients. “My
assumption is that it will dissipate. At this point, the industry’s
fundamentals will drive bank stock prices higher. This was my view at
the beginning of 2011 and it is my view at present.”

Yeah, okay...

A BoomBustBlog Deep Dive on Dick Bove Analysis

Now, speaking of Europe, particular Dexia (France, Belgium Wrangle About Dexia Deal: Reports), this brings to mind another highlighted headline focusing on the oft quoted sell side banking analyst US Stress Tests Not Worrying: Bove...
Dick Bove is one of the, if not most oft quoted sell side bank analyst
in the mainstream media. I disagree with him, regularly. As the uber
independent investor/analyst that I am, I will never be accurately
accused of kissing [up to] Dick - regardless, let's grab Dick by the base [of his assumptions] and see if we can yank something usable out of it, shall we?

The Federal Reserve announced Tuesday it plans to stress test U.S. banks—including the six largest—against a hypothetical market shock, such as an escalation of the European debt crisis.

Dick Bove
cnbc.com
Dick Bove

But
noted banking analyst Dick Bove said there is nothing for investors to
get upset about because the stress tests are pro forma and are not an
indication that the Fed  has any particular concerns about the state of American banks.

“It
was really required by the Dodd-Frank law that they have a stress
test,” the Rochdale Securities analyst told Larry Kudlow. “So every year
at about this time you have the Fed setting up a new stress test for
the banking industry.”

The six big banks to be tested are Bank of America [BAC  5.37    -0.12  (-2.19%)   ], Citigroup [C  24.46    -0.54  (-2.16%)   ], Goldman Sachs [GS  89.40    -1.90  (-2.08%)   ], JPMorgan Chase [JPM  29.41    -0.50  (-1.67%)   ], Morgan Stanley [MS  13.52    -0.08  (-0.59%)   ] and Wells Fargo [WFC  23.93    -0.25  (-1.03%)   ].

While
the Fed's stress tests will see whether U.S. banks can withstand any
further deepening of the European debt crisis crisis, Bove isn't worried
about contagion from the EU.

“If
[the European banks] run into significant difficulties, it is not going
to create a massive crisis in American banks,” he said. “American banks are benefiting meaningfully as a result of the European banking crisis and it’s showing up in their earnings.”

Will
someone buy Mr. Bove an Insitutional BoomBustBlog subscription. Of
course it won't create a massive crisis in American banks... The 8th
largest bankruptcy in this country's history doesn't even scratch the
radar, right??? The Ironic, Prophetic Nature of the MF Global Bankruptcy Filing and It's Potential Ramifications

That’s because European banks are selling American assets to American banks at discounted prices.

However, Bove thinks it’s highly unlikely that the European banks will collapse. He believes the European Central Bank will ultimately bail them out.

Okay,
where do I start? Well, I must admit, I don't look, speak, think nor
act like any of the sell side analysts. If you are into convention, and
not into hard hitting analysis and outspoken brothers, then I'm just not
your man. If that's the case, I suggest you simply get you some Dick.
For those who (like me) don't favor dick, I have a slightly different
flavor to offer in terms of analysis and perspective.

For those
not familiar with Mr. Bove, he made an interesting call on Bear Stearns
which was essentially antithetical to my research. I will copiiously (I
apologize Karl) excerpt a post from the Market Ticker which explains the
story explicitly: Dick Bove, Bear Stearns, And Controversey

 
Apparently Mr. Bove does not like my ticker from last night, and
believes that I have been in some way "unreasonable" in my
characterization of him, specifically this paragraph:

"The Truth: The "powers that be" (including the media, The Fed and The Banks) are absolutely beside themselves with the possibility that stocks, especially bank stocks, might decline in value. For "why" see the top of this blog entry. If you fall for this you will be wiped out. DICK
BOVE PUT A MARKET PERFORM RATING ON BEAR STEARNS STOCK ON MARCH 11th -
JUST THREE DAYS BEFORE IT BLEW UP AND (THE FOLLOWING MONDAY) WENT TO $2!
You have NOT and you WILL NOT see CNBC or DICK BOVE take responsibility for the wipe out of SEVERAL BILLION DOLLARS IN SHAREHOLDER WEALTH - when he could have preserved YOUR MONEY if he had told you the truth about our financial institutions and that YOU
SHOULD SELL ALL OF THEM AS THERE ARE AND WILL BE MORE EXPLOSIONS,
ALTHOUGH NEITHER HE OR I HAVE NO WAY TO KNOW WHICH ONES AND NEITHER DO
ANY OF THE ANALYSTS SINCE WE CAN'T SEE HONEST BALANCE SHEETS!"

He
was kind enough to send me a copy of the full report which I have
edited to remove his email address and phone number (at his request),
but which is otherwise reprinted here with his permission. You are urged to read the report in full and draw your own conclusions about whether the market performrating
was reasonable or not. Links are at the bottom of this post. There
apparently is one word he can legitimately complain about in my original
ticker - the word "PUT". In fact, he maintained a "Market Perform" rating on the 11th of March; the upgrade to Market Perform from SELL appears to have occurred in February.

You can find an archived copy of that story here. It says among other things, in reference to Bear and Lehman:

"He
said private equity may once again be able to fund activities in the
high yield markets, while adding that credit derivatives markets were
unlikely to go lower, and that the mortgage business may actually be
quite strong this year.

New York-based Lehman will likely recover faster than its peers due to the expected strength in mortgages, Bove said."

Ok,
I apologize for the error in not noting that the actual upgrade
apparently came a month earlier, not that I think its material, but when
you're wrong, you admit you're wrong. Mr. Bove, of course, didn't
bother to mention when the rating was issued by him during our phone
call, nor that when he issued the rating the price of the stock was even
HIGHER (by nearly $20!) than it was in March when the
rating was "maintained" (even though he claims it really wasn't if you
read the narrative.)
Now let's get to the meat of the matter and why I raised a stink about it in The Ticker - the rating. Dick claims that "anyone who read the report in full would see that I had told them to stay away from the stock."

After reading the report in full, I agree - the stock, by the narrative of the report, is indeed a sell - albiet a sell $20, or 25% of your money, too late!

But
here's the problem - the report clearly cuts the price target from $90
to $45 (a 50% haircut!) and further is a reduction of 25$ (from $59 to
$45) from the closing price on the day the report was issued.

The
report is intended only for institutional clients who pay his firm, but
it, like the report yesterday, was picked up and widely quoted in the
media.
Take a look at the second page of that report, directly above Mr. Bove's certification, under the definition of "Market Perform":

"Common stock is expected to perform with the market plus or minus five percentage points."

Since
I took the liberty of excerpting so much, I urge all who are interested
in this story to read Karl Deningers full post on his page - Dick Bove, Bear Stearns, And Controversey. In regards to me, let's contrast my opinions of Lehman and Bear in January of 2008, as opposed to Dick's - Is this the Breaking of the Bear?

Bear Stearns is in Real trouble

Bear
Stearns will soon be, if not already, in a fight for its life. It is
beset with the possibility of a criminal indictment (no Wall Street firm
has ever survived a criminal indictment), additional civil litigation,
and client defection and alienation. Despite all of these, the biggest
issues don't seem all that prevalent in the media though. Bear Stearns
is in a real financial bind due to the assets that it specialized in,
and it is not in it by itself, either. For some reason, the Street
consistently underestimates the severity of this real estate crash. If
you look throughout my blog,
it appears as if I have an outstanding track record. I would love to
take the credit as superior intelligence, but the reality of the matter
is that I just respect the severity of the current housing downturn -
something that it appears many analysts, pundits, speculators, and
investors have yet to do with aplomb. With a primary value driver linked
to the biggest drag on the US economy for the last century or so, Bear
Stearn's excessive reliance on highly "modeled" and real asset/mortgage
backed products in its portfolio may potentially be its undoing. This is
exacerbated significantly by leverage, lack of transparency, and
products that are relatively illiquid, even when the mortgage days were
good...

Book Value, Schmook Value – How Marking to Market Will Break the Bear’s Back

Okay,
I’ll admit it. I watch CNBC. Now that I am out of the confessional, I
can say that when I do watch it I hear a lot of perma-bulls stating that
this and that stock is cheap because it is trading at or below its book
value. They then go on to quote the historical significance of this
event, yada, yada, yada. This is then picked up by a bunch of other
individual investors, media pundits and other “professionals,” and it
appears that rampant buying ensues. I don’t know how much of it is
momentum trading versus actual investors really believing they are
buying on the fundamentals, but the buying pressure is certainly there.
They then lose their money as the stock they thought was cheap, actually
gets a lot cheaper, bringing their investment down the crapper with it.
What happened in this scenario? These investors bought accounting
numbers instead of true economic book value...

Level 2 and Level 3 Assets – Model Risk

Model
risk, or the risk of the bank living in a spreadsheet in lieu of the
market, has already reared its head in the summer of ’07 with the blow
up of two of BSC’s hedge funds, which have left them in litigation with
their own customers. Basically, many of the assets of the fund were
levered highly, and valued based upon modeled cash flows from assets,
and not from the actual tradable value of the assets. This is fine,
until you need to liquidate by selling assets. As luck would have it,
they found no market they felt was acceptable and were forced to market
value down significantly, approaching zero. It has also manifested
itself more recently in the recent announcement that they will be moving
at least 7 billion dollars to the level three (the most BullSh1+)
category. Bear Stearns has recently announced another hedge fund blow
up, which doledout significant losses to investors and is attempting
liquidation. For my laymen’s plain English take on level 1, 2, and 3
asset accounting, see the Banks, Brokers and Bullsh|+series (Banks, Brokers, & Bullsh1+ part 1 for model risk,).

Level 3 Assets at 231% of Total Equity; Amongst the Highest on Wall Street

Weighted average price (US$)
Methodologies Weight assigned Fair Price Weighted average price
Fair price using P/Adj. BV approach 50.00% 33.84 16.92
Fair price using P/E approach 50.00% 39.00 19.50
Weighted average fair price     36.42
Current price     87.03
Upside from current levels (US$)     -58.2%

 

The
book value numbers are after our economic marking and adjustments, of
course. The “E” portion of the P/E ration is quite conservative, since
the we built model incorporated BSC doing much better during the next 4
fiscal quarters than their peers are reporting for this quarter, and in
my opinion BSC will not only fail to match their peers, but underperform
due to the loss of their primary value drivers – mortgage derivative
and related fixed income products – not to mention their asset
management, legal, and litigation distractions as well as client and
talent retention issues.

Am I right about the Bear?

Despite
the Bear Stearns negative developments, and my opinion of its value,
Bear Stearns has managed to find investors as was mentioned earlier in
the insider transaction section. These are accomplished and wealthy
investors to boot. My concern is that so many astute, accomplished and
economically powerful investors have failed to realize and fully
appreciate the depth and breadth of the current real asset recession,
burst bubble, and quite possibly asset depression we have recently
entered. This has destroyed the value of many bottom fishing value
investors, both intitutional and retail.

image018.gif

And this is a summmary of my takes on Lehman Brothers from a similar period:

(February through May 2008): Is Lehman really a lemming in disguise? Thursday, February 21st, 2008 | Web chatter on Lehman Brothers
Sunday, March 16th, 2008 (It would appear that Lehman’s hedges are
paying off for them. The have the most CMBS and RMBS as a percent of
tangible equity on the street following BSC. The question is, “Can they
monetize those hedges?”. I’m curious to see how the options on Lehman
will be priced tomorrow. I really don’t have enough. Goes to show you
how stingy I am. I bought them before Lehman was on anybody’s radar and I
was still to cheap to gorge. Now, all of the alarms have sounded and
I’ll have to pay up to participate or go in short. There is too much
attention focused on Lehman right now. ) | I just got this email on Lehman from my clearing desk Monday, March 17th, 2008 by Reggie Middleton | Lehman stock, rumors and anti-rumors that support the rumors Friday, March 28th, 2008 | May 2008

Now
that we've established a small base of potential credibility when it
comes to bank failure, back to today and Dick's proclamations on CNBC,
let's start with Bank of America, who Dick says won't be affected by
European malaise. This is Reggie's take...

Then there's Goldman Sachs, the bank where Reggie is just so loved...

After
all, I'm sure there'll be no volatility in the markets if Europe blows
up. Then again, even if there is volatility in the markets, Goldman's
prop desk can handle it, right? I sure hope you guys don't think I'm being a Dick, do you?

What Was That I Heard About Squids Raising Capital Because They Can't Trade? Well, you guys know where I stand on this, and I have warned you ad nauseum...the Squid Can't Trade!

 

Reggie_Middleton_hunting_the_Squid_Known_As_Goldman_Sachs_GS

 

After all, eventually someone must query, So, When Does 3+5=4? When You Aggregate A Bunch Of Risky Banks & Then Pretend That You Didn't?

I'm Hunting Big Game Today: The Squid On A Spear Tip

Summary:
This is the first in a series of articles to be released this weekend
concerning Goldman Sachs, the Squid! In this introduction (for those who
do not regularly follow me) I demonstrate how the market, the sell
side, and most investors are missing one of the biggest bastions of risk
in the US investment banking industry. I will also...

Hunting the Squid, Part2: Since When Is Enough Derivative Exposure To Blow Up The World Something To Be Ignored?

Welcome
to part two of my series on Hunting the Squid, the overvaluation and
under-appreciation of the risks that is Goldman Sachs. Since this highly
analytical, but poignant diatribe covers a lot of material, it's
imperative that those who have not done so review part 1 of this series,
I'm Hunting Big Game Today:The Squid On The Spear Tip, Part...

Hunting the Squid Part 3: Reggie Middleton Serves Up Fried Calamari From Raw Squid

For
those who don't subscribe to BoomBustblog, or haven't read I'm Hunting
Big Game Today:The Squid On The Spear Tip, Part 1 & Introduction and
Hunting the Squid, Part2: Since When Is Enough Derivative Exposure To
Blow Up The World Something To Be Ignored?, not only have you missed out
on some unique artwork, you've potentially missed out on 300%...

Hunting the Squid, part 4: So, What Else Can Go Wrong With Goldman Sachs? Plenty!

Yes,
this more of the hardest hitting investment banking research available
focusing on Goldman Sachs (the Squid), but before you go on, be sure you
have read parts 1.2. and 3:  I'm Hunting Big Game Today:The Squid On A
Spear Tip, Part 1 & Introduction Hunting the Squid, Part2: Since
When Is Enough Derivative Exposure To Blow Up The World Something To...

Hunting the Squid, Part 5: Sometimes Your Local Superhero Doesn't Look Like What They Show You In The Movies

On
to the next Banque de Dick... You'd think with Dexia in the news, one
would know to either stay clear of JP Morgan or at least subscribe to
the BoomBust, eh? CNBC reports today (as highlighted in the introductory
graphic) France, Belgium Wrangle About Dexia Deal: Reports. Why is this important? Well, look at why Dexia's in trouble in the first place. In the (must read) post
Dexia Sets A $5.1bn Provision For Loss On Trying To Sell The Same
Residential Real Estate Assets Upon Which JP Morgan Has Slashed
Provisions 83% to $1.2bn from $7.0bn
you will find..

...Similarly,
many sell-side researchers award stocks “buy” or “overweight” ratings
even as their internal asset-management units unload shares, presenting a
conflict of interest and ethical dilemma. Goldman’s most famous
front-runs to date were the Abacus transactions, through which the bank
allegedly postured for high ratings for its mortgage-backed CDOs, sold
them to clients and then shorted them.

According
to research from the Street.com, Goldman put a Conviction Buy
Recommendation on JP Morgan Chase shares and issued it to their clients,
and then sold 4,200,009 shares of JPMorgan Chase. At an average of
$45/share,  that means that Goldman had a lack of conviction in its own
"Conviction Buy" recommendation to the tune of $189,000,405. I'd hate to
see what the company would do if they recommended clients sell, or
worst yet short sell, stock. Oh yeah! We already know, don't we.

Bloomberg reports: Dexia Takes 3.6 Billion-Euro Charge on Asset Sales

That
charge taken by Dexia was more than necessary, and most likely not
nearly enough. But wait a minute, why did JP Morgan do the exact
opposite regarding the exact same asset class?

Do you remember my recent missive "There’s Something Fishy at the House of Morgan"?
Well, in it I queried how it was that JP Morgan can continuously pull
risk provisions and reserves to pad quarterly accounting earnings at
time when I not only made clear that we are in a real estate depression but the facts actually played out the same. As excerpted from the aforementioned article:

I
invite all to peruse the mainstream financial media and sell side Wall
Street's take on JP Morgan's Q1 earnings before reading through my take.
Pray thee tell me, why is there such a distinct difference? Below are
excerpts from the our review of JP Morgan's Q1 results, available to
paying subscribers (including valuation and scenario analysis): File Icon JPM Q1 2011 Review & Analysis.

'Nuff said! Let's move over to Morgan Stanley... The Truth Is Revealed About The Riskiest Bank On The Street - What Does That Say About The Newest Bank To Carry That Title? You know, I'm still quite bearish on Asian, European and American banks. Just look at the facts as they're laid before you...

 


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Mon, 11/28/2011 - 22:24 | Link to Comment mt paul
mt paul's picture

squid hunting 101...

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 22:24 | Link to Comment gookempucky
gookempucky's picture

YC - Reminds me of the thing or was that at the north pole.

Reggie has been most generous with his information to the public...thanks Reggie.

Another stick in the eye of the world financial collapse was the quiet several trillion$ newbuild industry , when the world went tits up so did shipping. WS /world scale has ben wallowing and groveling since 2007 and the shipping industry is going broke = no payment for tonnage built. Add the frieght contracts traded OTC derivatives through London which  controls 50% of this business and it spells disaster. Oh well just another small money funding problem.

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 22:21 | Link to Comment Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

No ones mentioned it,so I will.

Fuck Hillary Clinton.

Douche Bag.

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 22:07 | Link to Comment SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

You always have me ROTFLMAO when I come home...keep up the great art and commentary WB7!

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 21:41 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

   Nice work , Mr. William Bonzai.  (  ANTARTICA out)><

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 21:10 | Link to Comment indio007
indio007's picture

Translation....

 

"Just buy the frickin dip , I can't sell at this level. I'm leveraged out the ass if the bank index drops another 10% there is no way I can make margin."

SHIT SHIT SHIT 

 

BUY THE FUCKING DIP FEWLZ!

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 21:00 | Link to Comment williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

DICK'S DEALS
.

DICK SHIT

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 20:39 | Link to Comment celticgold
celticgold's picture

RM  ... u da MAN

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 20:56 | Link to Comment SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

To the woodshed, Dick! Nitwit Cheerleader. Like you said, Reggie, there were no "right" reasons about anything he ever said, its all lies that he's parroting from Jamie et al. Like Bloomberg said today, "We spent $Trillions to get $Billions of profits", its becoming obvious that $Trillionz have disappeared into a black hole insinkerator (garbage disposal). Nomi Prins has said it, Catherine Austin Fitts has said it on Max Keiser's show, there is just WAY TOO MUCH money that is MISSING from the bailout equation. Like all that money shoveled into the banks should have went to pay off SOME obligation somewhere, and that SOMEone would now have $$$ to plow back into the economy or stock market or bond market or real estate market- NO! Its disappeared. Coulda paid off every mortgage in the land, nope (the money still would have flowed to the banks through the homeowners, but this isn't about helping taxpaying citizens...), coulda paid 50 states deficits, nope not about them either. This is about BANKSTERZ and their ugly cheerleader named DICK, and really what does a bank's stock price matter? Nobody owns those stocks, if they go down, who cares? They'll get more money from Benny & Timmah. 

I thought it was a joke by poster Carlyle Groupie about Bill Still's "L. Frank Baum's Wizard of Oz" video, but there are serious points to be made 1) Every dollar is borrowed into existence, hence somoeone is on the hook for MORE than the notional amount (+ interest), 2) We throw this money into the banks 3) We pay interest on this money while we let the banks earn interest on the same money, 4) $ TRILLIONS ARE MISSING!

Zeus Yiamouyiannis re: FAKE DEBT: Yeah, the money was borrowed under fraudulent pretenses, but where did it go? Its POOFED! I defaulted on my credit cards but at least I had chain saws & lawn equipment to show for the credit I spent, and I sold them, and spent again the proceeds- it shows up SOMEWHERE. The Banksterz Bailout Blitz should also show up somewhere, it has not yet.

You wanna get really pissed off? Read THE CREATURE FROM JEKYLL ISLAND by G. Edward Griffin (pdf here, click top right Download 41 MB, then click Download Anyway) 

https://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0B3-C4NLkRQu7MTUwYzUxM2QtYjU1NS00N2UyLWJhYzgtZWM2MTgzMTdhZjcw&hl=en_US

And then ask yourself, Why is Jon Corzine still a free man? Has the whole legal system gone daft? Has Obie Debt Brother turned a blind eye? Let me rimind you, in the words of Charles Furguson while accepting his Academy Award for INSIDE JOB, "Nobody on Wall Street has been prosecuted", or something like that. And nobody has been prosecuted, like William Black states- most FBI agents who make a case have been reassigned post-9/11, ain't nobody home! And like Catherine Austin Fitts said, people like "Angelo Mozilo was paid to do what he did, and he did it well". 

NOTE TO REGGIE: I know full well I'm on your post, and I feel like Princess Leia when she told Old Ben that he was her only hope. YOU are the new OB1-kenobi, there is far too much "input" (Johnny 5) for any human mortal to assimilate and process, but I trust that you can do it- this isn't about Eurobanks or BAC, this is about the realization that each American Cirizen is being sodomized by our "leaders". Nomi Prins' use of the word PILLAGE in the title of her last book was a SHOCK at the time, now its an UNDERSTATEMENT. Words such as TREASON should be drawn up for the current episode.

PS- I hear that Merkel & Sarkozy have their own Saturday Morning Show, "CRISIS FIGHTERS" (cartoon). Thanks for all you do, Mr. Middleton, I catagorize you as an American Patriot. (SquidFighter, how could I not?)

URKLE: Did I say that?

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 20:57 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Who payed for that laptop- IP connection- opinion?    THE TaX PaYer!   

  As I work my way through the rough, a " Birdie" / "EAGLE" , would be appreciated!?

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 21:02 | Link to Comment SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

"payed" huh? Taxpayers haven't bailed out Comcast yet, but you should read Chris Whalen's brother's work.

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 21:14 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Apples and Oranges.  Monkey Boy. I like you though.

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 21:27 | Link to Comment SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

There are RED apples & GREEN apples, but only ORANGE oranges. 

Unless you look at Yellow Freight's logo, there's no YELLOW anywhere.

(We fight like brothers, I like you too.) Only Awesome Peeps here at ZH!

PLEASE READ Jekyll Island, its AWESOME.  

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 21:35 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 As in  http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND      " Baltic Dry up 25% over 6 months" ?  Priced in<

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 21:48 | Link to Comment SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

No, as in THE CREATURE FROM JEKYLL ISLAND by G. Edward Griffin (pdf here, click top right Download 41 MB, then click Download Anyway) 

https://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0B3-C4NLkRQu7MTUwYzUxM2QtYjU1NS00N2UyLWJhYzgtZWM2MTgzMTdhZjcw&hl=en_US

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 19:54 | Link to Comment sleepingbeauty
sleepingbeauty's picture

But on the bright side he does kinda look like Santa Claus (Bove not Reggie).

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 19:46 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 DICK meet ANGELA.   Lets POSTULATE, banking ~

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 19:40 | Link to Comment razorthin
razorthin's picture

In the end, fundamentals overall are nonsense.

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 19:39 | Link to Comment dcb
dcb's picture

Dear Reggie,

As we have seen in this country if you want to move ahead in life it pays to be wrong on a regular basis, but get in with the big boys. since you know you can't styand there on ability, you become a toadie of these fools. if you don't believe me lets ask the long term policy failures of:

Rubin, summers, bernanke, greenspan, Geither. mishkin (sorry ccan't think of others off the top of my head.

now lets look at thosen who were proved right:

born (brooksly), warren (i think she has been proven right), Hoenig (should have been made chair man of the fed for beign long term right about almost everything)

(I am sure the zh readers can come up sith some more.

 

Hence, dick Bowe deserves a place on msm

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 18:43 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

"This is nonsense. With all due respect, you were a Dick that was wrong for
all of the wrong reasons. Earnings looked good because reporting
standards have been gutted allowing for the facade of performing loans
and reserve releases padded losses. Capital levels looked impressive to
the great unwashed because mark to fantasy allowed gaping capital
deficiencies to be glazed over."

This is nonsense. With all due respect, you know that he knows all of this (as does anyone paying attention). Either call him a liar directly, or don't bother writing about it. Playing along with his lying game by critiquing the claims gives them a level of credence they never should have, as he can now pretend to respond to them, instead of the assertion that he is a con-man. Put yourself in the shoes of a sophist, and think about which is easier to rebut.

I don't understand why you waste so much time telling people that the sky is blue, when anyone who cares can look for themselves. Those who don't care, well, you're never going to reach them, anyway.

All you're doing is wrestling with pigs.

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 18:32 | Link to Comment Cow
Cow's picture

Dick has a nice beard.

Ben also has a nice beard.

Both are wrong, but are paid a lot to be right.

I really wonder what Ben and all his minions do in those nice shiny buildings.

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 18:31 | Link to Comment Rainman
Rainman's picture

Amerikan Bankz cannot forever release reserve themselves into prosperity !

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 18:29 | Link to Comment digalert
digalert's picture

So Reggie, what do you really think of Dick Bove?

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 18:24 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

Rm should answer one question : will the europeans be able to save the euro or not? The whole world is screaming at Merkel, saying, pull ya finger out, let the ECB print, go federal, go two tier, go euro bond! DO SOMETHING FRAU, OR WE ALL GO UNDER...Will she get the message or not? 

Its now ten days that could shake the world, so RM why don't you play at being John Reed...?

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 20:13 | Link to Comment 11b40
11b40's picture

Reggie deals in cold, hard numbers and facts, not hypothetical declarations, which makes him so interesting to me, and I presume, such a pain in tha ass for the likes of Bove, GS, and the general beneficiaries of the status quo.

Who knows what Merkel will try to do?  Who knows what she can actually get Germany to go along with?

My guess is, Reggie's answer would be that the euro in it's present form is doomed long-term regardless what she does.

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 20:44 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

RM has been building a case for banking run in Euro for 1 year, and has also pointed out that the debt levels are such that without debt restructuring and banking recap, the euro is toast. So we are there, no safety net, no ECB funding so far. Euro is toast unless...WHat??? According to RM there are NO unlesses, its a done deal, EUro burns.

So It would be nice if he resaid it now, categorically, as that has been his pitch upto today. Just saying...but then I don't know what TPTB are hatching; as for USA/FED, an Italian collapse and bank run is just NOT acceptable. It would bring down the other two pillars of world economy: J/USA. We do hear rumblings in IMF and DC... as in Germany of desperate last minute deals.

We all take sides based on cold hard figures when we are experts. RM is an expert. Just saying...that's how investment managers do their job; they make their calls based on judgement. RM is an expert AND an investment manager. He must have made his call on this as manager. Just saying...this is the mother of current short plays etc. If I were trader/HF investor I'd take my side. 

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 20:46 | Link to Comment SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

In the immortal words of Old Ben, "Use the force, Luke". Use Reggie's brains as your WEAPON, as your DEFENSE. You need to stake a post as your basis to judge all comers, are you daft man?

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 13:33 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

I've made my case here. I think the Euro melt down, as the concomitant world financial melt down, is inevitable.

I think the current GS + Ninja HF strategy, to financially strip Euro zone and try and black mail Merkel into going down on her knees, opening the ECB to print to infinity, will back fire. I've said it time and again here. So now that these two faced Oligarchy shills, actively feed the speculative fire and also feed the water carriers on FED side, hoping not to be the last player in the game, they will bring the whole shooting match down.

Game over on both sides of the pond. No winners. Then Uncle Sam will have to stoke the capitalist engine based on FED's exorbitant privilege and Zirp/print, print, print strategy. Until the world deems its time to pull the plug on that. That may not occur tomorrow, I grant you that. But its gonna be inevitable.

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 18:12 | Link to Comment max2205
max2205's picture

Reggie 500 words OR LESS please

Bove caves??!!!! Time to ease into them. 5 years or buys and he caves at this low level.... Amateur

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 17:52 | Link to Comment Kina
Kina's picture

Love the way Reggie taunts the 'Squid'.

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 17:52 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Whenever somebody ask me about a situation check on this crisis...

I just say: Read Reggie Middleton's blog.

And read it again.

 

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 17:45 | Link to Comment richard in norway
richard in norway's picture

reggie reggie reggie reggie

 

reggie reggie reggie reggie

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 17:58 | Link to Comment ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

Reggie may want to choose his words more carefully. In the tagline he says "Dick Comes Clean A Week After I Did Him Dirty"........

eeeeeessssshhhhhhhhhhhh................................

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 18:05 | Link to Comment Gubbmint Cheese
Gubbmint Cheese's picture

Yeah.. that's super classy and highlights professionalism....

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 17:54 | Link to Comment Gubbmint Cheese
Gubbmint Cheese's picture

Reggie, I'm begging you. ENOUGH with the f*ing shirtless pics and mma videos -  it really takes away from the quality of your analysis which is exceptional. You are doing yourself and your work a huge disservice.

 

 

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 20:21 | Link to Comment Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

His writing style and his video making skill (or lack thereof) also take away from his analysis. He might want to hire out for ghost writers and editors if he becomes popular enough.

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 20:40 | Link to Comment SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

Please think about what you just said- you want "The Polished & Finished Product"? Why, so you can go out 2 years later and buy "The UNCUT Version"?  Here it is now, RAW in your face- cut through the crap yourself! I'm sure you don't want Mommy to cut everything into small bite-size pieces, do you? REGGIE RULEZ!!!!!!!!!

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 19:46 | Link to Comment razorthin
razorthin's picture

I find myself much more distracted by the shirtless (in my mind) RT host.

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 19:07 | Link to Comment Melin
Melin's picture

How so?

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 17:49 | Link to Comment Absalon
Absalon's picture

I won't invest in American banks either directly or through an index because I assume that their financial statements are worthless as indicators of the financial status of the banks.  In fact I sold Diamonds and Spiders earlier this year because of that belief.

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 20:52 | Link to Comment SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

Tobacco the original medium of exchange, kicked out of DOW 3 years ago. PM today is higher than it was 10/27. Screw the banks. MO will follow.

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 17:33 | Link to Comment tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

dick bove is a bloviated bovine wide ass trailer ho....they ain't no reason to dignify him with the time of day....

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 17:08 | Link to Comment bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

Too much hard sell of yourself, Reggie. Though it is a very 'American' kind of style.

The softer, classy approach of Phil at Phil's Stock World, in his ZeroHedge postings courtesy of Ilene, works much better for many readers.

Phil gives lots of information, some good humour, and then just subtle modest linking to his own site.

You might try a softer sell and find it actually works better for you.

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 20:06 | Link to Comment jcaz
jcaz's picture

Yeah, hard to listen to anyone from Brussels giving out bank-related advice about now.......

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 17:42 | Link to Comment homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

If softer and classy approach means leftist and socialist, count me out. There's a reason why Reggie gets rated higher than Ilene's postings.. and it's not because Ilene is a softer sell..

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 19:56 | Link to Comment delacroix
delacroix's picture

phil has been wrong. Reggie, not so much

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 20:49 | Link to Comment SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

Phil & Ilene have been pretty good, better than any Elliott i know....

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 17:07 | Link to Comment DavosSherman
DavosSherman's picture

CNBS Douchebags

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 21:37 | Link to Comment Everyman
Everyman's picture

LOL,  Mr. Sherman, I gave you a thumbs up, however somebody that watches CNBS (probably somebody taht works there because they have so few viewers) junked you.

 

If all the employees at CNBS that actually believed the shinola that network was shoveling, junked you, it would probably be in the teens!

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 20:24 | Link to Comment philipat
philipat's picture

The bottom line is that the market can see right through the accounting BS which TPTB have generously allowed the Banks to use (To the usual disadvantage of the 99%) and is valuing them based on the REAL value of the assets on (And off) the balance sheet. Why can't Bove do the same?

Oh what a tangled web we weave.....?

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