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Contrary to Widespread Claims, There Is NO EVIDENCE that Iran Is Building a Nuclear Weapon

George Washington's picture




 

Update: 

Even Israel Admits that Iran Has Not Decided to Build a Nuclear Bomb

 

Earlier this month, Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta said:

Are they [the Iranians] trying to develop a nuclear weapon? No. But we know that they’re trying to develop a nuclear capability. And that’s what concerns us.

Director of National Intelligence James Clapper confirmed in a Senate hearing – following the release of the classified National Intelligence Estimate in 2011 – that he has a “high level of confidence” that Iran “has not made a decision as of this point to restart its nuclear weapons program.”

Mohamed ElBaradei – who spent more than a decade as the director of the IAEA – said that he had not “seen a shred of evidence” that Iran was pursuing the bomb.

Six former ambassadors to Iran within the last decade say that there is no evidence that Iran is building nuclear weapons, and that Iran is complying with international law.

The International Atomic Energy Agency states:

All nuclear material in the facility remains under the Agency’s containment and surveillance.

In other words, all nuclear fuel is accounted for and is being controlled and monitored by the international agency tasked with nuclear non-proliferation.

What about Iran’s enriching uranium to 20%? The IAEA considers 20 percent enriched uranium to be low-enriched uranium and “a fully adequate isotopic barrier” to weaponization. In other words, 20% is well within the legal guidelines for developing a program of nuclear energy.

Indeed, under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Iran is acting in a wholly legal fashion. As the six former ambassadors cited above note:

In terms of international law, the position of Europe and the United States may be less assured than is generally believed.

 

***

 

Most experts, even in Israel, view Iran as striving to become a “threshold country”, technically able to produce a nuclear weapon but abstaining from doing so for now. Again, nothing in international law forbids this ambition. Several other countries are close to, or have already reached, such a threshold, with a commitment not to acquire nuclear weapons. Nobody seems to bother them.

Nuclear physicist Yousaf Butt – former fellow in the Committee on International Security and Arms Control at the National Academy of Sciences, scientific consultant for the Federation of American Scientists, and frequent contributor to the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists – points out:

Iran is not doing anything that violates its legal right to develop nuclear technology. Under the NPT, it is not illegal for a member state to have a nuclear weapons capability — or a “nuclear option.” If a nation has a fully developed civilian nuclear sector — which the NPT actually encourages — it, by default, already has a fairly solid nuclear weapons capability. For example, like Iran, Argentina, Brazil, and Japan also maintain a “nuclear option” — they, too, could break out of the NPT and make a nuclear device in a few months, if not less. And like Iran, Argentina and Brazil also do not permit full “Additional Protocol” IAEA inspections.

 

The real legal red line, specified in the IAEA’s “Comprehensive Safeguards Agreements,” is the diversion of nuclear materials to a weapons program. However, multiple experts and official reports have affirmed over the years that they have no evidence that any such program exists.

But didn’t the latest IAEA report say that Iran was trying to build a bomb?

Not really. The latest IAEA report states that Iran’s research program into nuclear weapons:

Was stopped rather abruptly pursuant to a ‘halt order’ instruction issued in late 2003.

While there are some allegations about documents found on a laptop, those documents apparently came from a terrorist group with zero credibility.

In any event, the current accusations against Iran by hawks pushing for an attack cannot be taken in a vacuum:

  • The people pushing for war against Iran are the same neocons who pushed for war against Iraq based on false statements that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. See this, this and this
  • The U.S. has been claiming for more than 30 years that Iran was on the verge of nuclear capability (and the U.S. apparently helped fund the Iranian nuclear program)
  • The CIA admits that it hired Iranians in the 1950?s to pose as Communists and stage bombings in Iran in order to turn the country against its democratically-elected prime minister
  • Pulitzer-prize winning investigative reporter Seymour Hersh says that the Bush administration (and especially Dick Cheney) helped to fund terrorist groups within Iran (see confirming articles here and here)
  • The New York Times, Washington Post and others are reporting, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, former Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge, former national security adviser Fran Townsend and former Attorney General Michael Mukasey – who all said that the terrorists were going to get us if we didn’t jettison the liberties granted under the Bill of Rights – are now supporting terrorists in Iran
  • The war against Iran has already begun. See this, this and this

BUT DIDN’T IRAN THREATEN TO WIPE ISRAEL OFF THE MAP?

 

It has been widely report that Iran’s president threatened to “wipe Israel off the map”. However, numerous experts in Iranian language and culture say that this was a mistranslation.

I speak no Farsi, know nothing about Iranian culture or idioms, and don’t like Iran’s president or hardline Mullahs. So I can’t weigh in one way or the other.

However, Iran has not attacked another country in hundreds of years. (In the Iran-Iraq war, Iraq was the initial aggressor.) As such, it is unlikely to start one now.

THERE’S A SIMPLE SOLUTION TO THE ESCALATING TENSIONS

 

There is a simple solution to the escalating rumors of war. Specifically, a fuel swap would end the tensions. As Butt writes:

[A commentator] proposes a fuel swap to resolve the nuclear standoff: Iran would curtail its enrichment in exchange for foreign-supplied 20 percent enriched uranium fuel plates for its research reactor. In fact, in 2010, just such a deal was brokered by Turkey and Brazil but the United States could not take “yes” for an answer. Though Iran has just accepted an offer of new talks brokered by Turkey, new sanctions passed by Congress and signed into law by President Barack Obama have made it even more unlikely that the two sides can reach an agreement.

EVEN IF IRAN WERE TRYING TO BUILD A BOMB, AN ATTACK WOULD ONLY ACCELERATE THE PROCESS

 

Even if Iran were trying to build a bomb, American military and intelligence chiefs say that attacking Iran would only speed up its development of nuclear weapons, empower its hardliners, and undermine the chance for democratic reform.

 

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Thu, 01/26/2012 - 05:21 | 2099011 Transformer
Transformer's picture

That crazy Alex Jones is saying that we have sent the Enterprise, our oldest aircraft carrier, destined to be decomissioned next year, over to the Gulf so that we can do a False Flag and create some event where we sink it, or maybe the Israelis sink it, and then we blame it on Iran.  Then we could use that provocation to start a war with them.  Isn't that the craziest thing you ever heard?

He says that's what we did in WW2, moving all our old ships to Hawaii, sending all the new ships out to sea, so the Japs could come and attack.  To get us into WW2.  Crazy!

The US of A would never do such a thing!!!

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 07:21 | 2099057 4horse
4horse's picture

hidden use of the obvious:

A reputed Israeli intelligence Internet site has claimed that India is opting for gold to repay crude oil supplies from Iran. Given the US and EU embargo on Iran, payment in hard currency, such as the US dollar or euro, is very difficult; hence, this barter.

The website, Debkafile, said the transaction will be routed through UCO Bank, the Kolkata-based public sector lender. However, when contacted, a senior bank executive said he had not heard of any plans to settle oil payments in gold. A senior finance ministry official said he did not wish to comment on the issue. When reached over the phone, economic affairs secretary R. Gopalan, who has been leading the talks with Iran, said he was busy in a meeting . . .

The report on the Israeli website coincides with the visit of an Indian official delegation to Tehran last week to find ways to continue the bilateral trade between Iran and India in spite of the sanctions imposed for forcing Iran to forsake its alleged plans for developing nuclear weapons.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/Gold-for-Iran...

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:16 | 2100055 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

thanks for the article. Could not get the link to work. Try this.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/Gold-for-Iran-oil-Govt-declines-any-comment/articleshow/11634184.cms

The comments to the article are pretty interesting.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 04:21 | 2098990 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

Extortion 101:

Extorters can not better the life of the extorted. Because it would mean cancelling the extortion scheme, from which extorters live off.

The only kind of promises an extorter can deliver on is that things could get worse and will in fact get worse for the extorted.

US citizens run an extortion business. They have not the power to improve Iranian, Iraqi, Afghan lifes.

Only pretend they have achieved so through propaganda.

Known for ages now. But still US citizens claim that will better Iran, Afghan, Iraq etc

All US citizens are going to do is to promote Iranian, Afghan, Iraqi to the ranks of extorters.

Those indigenous extorters wont develop the country but leak the wealth out of the country to secure a position in the 'free' world because it is where their wealth is to be themost secured as any cent put in their own country is likely to be subjected to an extortion scheme.

As the situation inthose countries will worsen, US citizens wonttake responsibility and start to claim that it is all because of the local governance corruption that has had no other aim than leaking the wealth out of their country.

Etc...

Same scheme over and over again.

When it is all determined from the start.

US citizens nature is eternal.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 06:11 | 2098997 akak
akak's picture

You are a vile, disgusting and blindly anti-American total piece of filth.

There is PLENTY for which to condemn the ruling financial and political elites in the USA --- elites whom I have condemned and fought against for decades --- as well as in the mainstream American political culture, but I will be DAMNED if I am going to tolerate a juvenile asshole condemning ME, and EVERY American, for the savage imperialism and statist crimes of that elite, or for the misguided loyalties and political beliefs of SOME Americans.  There is NOTHING more intellectually bankrupt, nor more morally reprehensible, than such sweeping, collectivist hatred as you routinely demonstrate in your idiotic, blind, gibberish-laden, hypocritical and shockingly unjust anti-American diatribes.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 14:53 | 2100425 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

Made me laugh. If indeed, people who oppose US citizens are like you, it explains the success of US citizenism.

Seriously, nothing more intellectual bankrupt and morally reprehensible than a few statements of obvious facts?

Take a look of US citizenism, the doctrine the US has been spreading since 1176, July,4th.

Besides, I condemn nobody.

I point out the root causes.

Establishing facts is not a moral statement.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:52 | 2100488 akak
akak's picture

Again, nothing but meaningless, psychotic drivel.  Pure gibberish.

Your thoughts, as expressed here on ZeroHedge, are consistenly nothing more than a confused and contradictory mishmash of prejudice, nonsense, hate and the ugliest sort of nationalistic chauvinism.

When Ayn Rand raised the word "collectivist" to the worst form of curse, it was exactly the kind of close-minded, shallow, bigoted, anti-intellectual person like you she had in mind.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 04:06 | 2098984 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

Reading the thread is another source of laughter.

But what?

US citizens come with the same trick over and over again: deflecting the burden of evidences onto the convicted.

It is no longer about what Iran is doing but about what Iran is.

It is not about whether or not Iran is acting illegally, it is only that Iran is a bad guy, a rogue nation that deserves to be punished.

Iran is a bad place. US citizens are going to oust the government and make it a better place.

Right now, in US citizenish world, Iranians are poor sods oppressed by a government, that oppression explaining everything bad going on in Iran.

Just like the Iraqis were, just like the Afghans were.

Now, what happens after liberation by US citizens? Overnight, all thesepeople are going to be treated as ragtag, as losers etc Their conditions will no longer be the result of Iranian government, but themselves.

Overnight. The same drug addict who is depicted as taking drugs to escape the brutality of the Iranian government will be depicted as a failure who knew nothing better to do with his life than taking drugs.

Libya under Gaddafi was a bad place.

Was there an ethnical cleansing going on under Gaddafi reign? No.

Is one going on under US citizen governance? Yep. There is one.

And that is what makes the place a better place. Under US citizenism standard of course.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 13:18 | 2099992 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

You're post is a self parody

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 14:48 | 2100408 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

If you think that pointing out that US citizens commonly depict an ethnical cleansing as a betterment of a situation is self parody, well, it is your business.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 23:33 | 2101569 outofhere
outofhere's picture

If you are blaming the citizens of the US for the actions of a rogue government then you are as delusional as those who seek to destroy our American heritage.

Those two lines are all i will waste on you, time for a scotch.

 

Fri, 01/27/2012 - 13:28 | 2102895 Chump
Thu, 01/26/2012 - 09:02 | 2099170 4horse
4horse's picture

anan_obvious toll, repeatedly, taken onsite by repetitive trolls-megaphonies-is again, and again, the resultant kulturgut of utter nonsense and the utterly redundant. . .

 

                        citizenism repeat cit i zen repeat sit zen. idiotsit
repeat after me:                                                               sit. sit. heel
                        cynicism            sit i zen sleepy i sit i zen. i sit

 

iiii's are getting heavy. sleepy leaden getting very sleepy deaden very very sleepy . . .

 

like iiii's a gonna be somehow mesmer set asleep somehow murmur by these machines
remote control
as if under the influence and tele-distance zzen-zzzoning-out due to these dictaphones

 

together with tonight's tandem
ffrom tel aviv
ff +xquiz'n'smoke
alternately . . . but repeatedly

 

__for whom the only haiku

       is just ffinally  f  u

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 02:11 | 2098914 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

Why Iran [Persia]? Because the bloody english think its still their property! Remember this - the ME has been pumping alot of crude since the early 20th century - saudi arabia's oil revenue [growing exponentially nth^ $$$ annually] in 1955 was ~$300ml, while bahrain earned ~$9ml, with kuwait 150 miles up the coast in the same year earning ~$240ml - this oil extraction has been going full steam for ~60-70 years and the well's are running dry,... or dryer?

What has Iran [Persia] done with their oil extraction in the last 20years? Think of Iraq, and  the endless oil embargo's keeping the wells greased and sustainable for future use [plugged/ capped?]

Some say that FDR had this in his mind when spoke in "Greenspan-speak" in 1944 to the British Ambassador,... "Persian oil... is yours[uk]. We [usa/uk] share the oil of Iraq and Kuwait. As for the Saudi Arabian Oil, it's ours [usa]!"

It didn't work out as history had predicted back then, but, it sure the hell looks like it's working out today.   JMO

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_relations_of_the_Arab_League

inklings from the islamic language {Arabian's find a voice and a cause knowing quite well[?] the oil someday, could be gone?} made loud and clear,... that kinda answers, the," why, how, where, and when [cause/effect] - ref:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gamel_Abdel_Nasser 

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 00:54 | 2098848 indio007
indio007's picture

It's no use GW your preaching to the chior here. Most sheeple would respond to this article with the following observation.

"I don't believe you GW!

If Iran doesn't have nukes , then how did Saddam Hussien commit 9/11?"

 

:/

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 01:26 | 2098894 akak
akak's picture

If Iran doesn't have nukes , then how did Saddam Hussien commit 9/11?

That makes me laugh, and cry, in roughly equal measure.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 03:14 | 2098961 Libertarian777
Libertarian777's picture

more like vomit and die a little bit inside.

People forgot so quickly...

Saddam had nothing to do with 9/11.

We FUNDED Saddam.

We FUNDED the Taliban (fuck we gave them stinger missiles).

We've always been at war with Eastasia.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 05:32 | 2099012 akak
akak's picture

Obama is Peace.

The Public School System is Strength.

Protesting is Slavery.

 

Now please stand at attention for the Two Minutes' Hate ...

(cue the images of Ron Paul, and gold coins, on every telescreen)

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 13:15 | 2099982 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

Drones Reduce Our Military Engagement

News is Information

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:25 | 2100529 Ranger4564
Ranger4564's picture

The purpose of the drones is to distance the action from the actor, from the culpability / guilt.  This is a longer term psyop, not a short term military solution.  As such, the purpose is to eventually make it seem in people's minds that the machines are to blame, not the persons directing the persons directing the persons.  This is all very clever and sinister, and more dangerous than just mere military intervention... although i condenm that as well.

 

We'll see whether i'm right or out of my socks.  Will take about 20 - 30 years for this to develop, maybe a bit longer.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 23:17 | 2101589 outofhere
outofhere's picture

Is Rael will not wait that long to enslave the world... The takeover is happening right before your closed eyes.

Walmart sale...  3 pair for .99 cents

 

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 07:58 | 2099076 Dooud
Dooud's picture

CONSUME...OBEY.....SLEEP........

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 00:20 | 2098772 working class dog
working class dog's picture

I say Israe you show me yours and Iran will show you theirs, why is it ok for Israel to have the option to Nuke Iran but not the ohter way around?

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 22:51 | 2098596 frostfan
frostfan's picture

Iyou think this article has been written ten years earlier except back then you just replaced Iran with North Korea  you know blah blah no proof that North Korea working on a nuclear weapon.

This opinion piece wouldn't be so disturbing except for the fact that we all know that GW is rooting for the Iranians to be building the bomb and if/when they announce they have it,  GW will write an article here justifying that they deserve and should have it.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 23:30 | 2098680 JR
JR's picture

This is not related to North Korea. George Washington has proven there is no evidence that the Iranians are building a nuclear bomb; and there’s no evidence that if they should, “GW will write an article here justifying that they deserve and should have it.”

It is you rush-to-war neo-cons and Likud sympathizers in the United States and Europe who want to harness all of Iran’s defense capabilities so that Israel can dominate the Middle East.

Nuclear capabilities is just one thing; Israel doesn‘t want Iran to have any capabilities so that they can continue to expand into the M.E. and run over virtually everybody.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 23:53 | 2098717 Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

Yes because they have expanded so much thus far and run over so many people.

Kind of like the radical islamic muzzies are doing all over Northern and Western  Europe, Norther Africa et al-sound familiar?

Not much difference between now and then either except no wholesale murdering of jews yet.

Seems they should be getting there soon enough though.

 

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 01:18 | 2098889 JR
JR's picture

The Jewish settlements, which most countries of the world consider illegal expansion. are one thing, but domination of the entire Middle Eastern region with jets, tanks and a nuclear arsenal is another.  Israel’s worry is that another people, in this case Iranians, will try to defend themselves from domination by gaining some measure of weaponry to escape the fate experienced so far by Palestine and Iraq.

It’s important not only to review the recent revolutionary history of Menachem Begin, Ariel Sharon and Benjamin Netanyahu, but also to review the Jewish makeup of the Russian revolutionaries.

“The Bolshevik Revolution,” said a leading American Jewish community newspaper (American Hebrew) in 1920, "was largely the product of Jewish thinking, Jewish discontent, Jewish effort to reconstruct.”

Winston Churchill, pointing to the crucial role played by the Jews in Bolshevism in an essay published in the February 8, 1920, issue of the London Illustrated Sunday Herald warned: Bolshevism is a “worldwide conspiracy for the overthrow of civilization and for the reconstitution of society on the basis of arrested development, of envious malevolence, and impossible equality… There is no need to exaggerate the part played in the creation of Bolshevism and in the actual bringing about of the Russian Revolution by the international and for the most part atheistical Jews… With the notable exception of Lenin, the majority of the leading figures are Jews…”

Summing up the situation at the time, Israeli historian Louis Rapoport wrote:

“Immediately after the Revolution, many Jews were euphoric over their high representation in the new government.  Lenin’s first Politburo was dominated by men of Jewish origins.

“Under Lenin, Jews became involved in all aspects of the Revolution, including its dirtiest work.  Despite the Communists’ vows to eradicate anti-Semitism, it spread rapidly after the Revolution—partly because of the prominence of so many Jews in the Soviet administration, as well as in the traumatic, inhuman Sovietization drives that followed.  Historian Salo Baron has noted that an immensely disproportionate number of Jews joined the new Bolshevik secret police, the Cheka…  and many of those who fell afoul of the Cheka would be shot by Jewish investigators.

‘The collective leadership that emerged in Lenin’s dying days was headed by the Jew Zinoviev, a loquacious, mean-spirited, curly-haired Adonis whose vanity knew no bounds.”

Robert Wilton, correspondent of the London Times in Russia for 17 years, in his foreword to Les Derniers Jours des Romanoffs, listed the members of the [Bolshevik Party’s] Central Committee, of the Extraordinary Commission [Cheka or secret police], and of the Council of Commissars functioning at the time of the assassination of the Imperial family.

“The 62 members of the [Central] Committee were composed of 5 Russians, 1 Ukrainian, 6 Letts [Latvians], 2 Germans, 1 Czech, 2 Armenians, 3 Georgians, 1 Karaim [Karaite] (a Jewish sect), and 41 Jews.

“The Extraordinary Commission [Cheka or Vecheka] of Moscow was composed of 36 members, including 1 German, 1 Pole, 1 Armenian, 2 Russians, 8 Latvians, and 23 Jews.

“The Council of the People’s Commissar [the Soviet government] numbered 2 Armenians, 3 Russians, and 17 Jews.

“According to data furnished by the Soviet press, out of 556 important functionaries of the Bolshevik state, including the above-mentioned, in 1918-1919 there were: 17 Russians, 2 Ukrainians, 11 Armenians, 35 Letts [Latvians], 15 Germans, 1 Hungarian, 10 Georgians, 3 Poles, 3 Finns, 1 Czech, 1 Karaim, and 457 Jews…”

Effective governmental power, Wilton continued, is in the Central Committee of the Bolshevik party.  In 1918, he reported, this body had twelve members, of whom nine were of Jewish origin—Bronstein (Trotsky), Apfelbaum (Zinoviev), Lurie (Larine, Uritsky, Volodarski, Rosenfeld (Kamenev), Smidovich, Sverdlov (Yankel), and Nakhamkes (Steklov).  The three Russians were Ulyanov (Lenin), Krylenko, and Lunacharshy.

Said Wilton, “The other Russian Socialist parties are similar in composition,” and he gives the compositions.

A public opinion poll conducted in 1990 found that three out of four Soviet citizens surveyed regarded the killing of the Tsar and the family as a despicable crime.  – The Nation, June 24, 1991, p. 838

One isn’t supposed to say it, but America sealed her fate when, under the Clinton Administration, “the White House, the Senate, and much of the American media”  (and now the House of Representatives and soon to be the U.S. Supreme Court) fell, as the Israelis put it, “in our hands.” 

 This statement came from Israeli columnist Ari Shavit in an article reprinted from the Israel newspaper Haaretz in the May 27, 1996 issue of the New York Times as he reflected sorrowfully on the wanton Israeli killing of more than 100 Lebanese civilians that April.  Bill Clinton, “the lover of peace,” had raised no protest when the Israelis drove 400,000 innocent Lebanese out of their homes in “retaliation” for rockets launched into Israel, wounding 1 Israeli.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 22:24 | 2098515 Smokey1
Smokey1's picture

Fucking deluded garbage. Nonsense.

Par for the course from the resident pacifist, the fool who embraces the 911 conspiracy lies.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 23:59 | 2098741 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

Smokey - get a clue.  No one with a working brain believes you.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 00:45 | 2098826 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

not true I think there are some folks with brain injuries who still spot the garbage.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 22:11 | 2098482 Ranger4564
Ranger4564's picture

I have a theory that I haven't seen reported yet.  What if the Iranian crisis is not an Iranian crisis alone?  I know it's tied to the regime change that's underway in the rest of the ME, but i suggest that the Iranian crisis is in fact an attack on the Euro as well as on Iran.  The point is, there is already a long term strategy of assault on the Euro by the US / UK and the financial oligarchs.  It's not because US / UK people are favored... just a tactic towards world overthrow, so it doesn't matter if it was Dollar or Euro under assault, they're both being beaten anyway.  So what if the Iran crisis was not just an embargo on Iran, but a commercial crisis for Europe - no trade, higher fuel costs, less certainty, etc, just when the Euro is already being destabilized by debt crises.  So add them together, it makes it much more difficult for the European nations to actually manage to meet their debt obligations / take care of their people, so the Euro falls lower. It is a downward spiral, but this is just part of the strategy.

 

That's my thoughts on this.  We should be seeing Gold / Silver / Oil / Food rising and currencies falling.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 04:11 | 2098987 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

So what if the Iran crisis was not just an embargo on Iran, but a commercial crisis for Europe - no trade, higher fuel costs, less certainty, etc,

/////////////////////////////////////////////////

Actually, more certainty. Diminishing a rival brings more certainty.

It is only when rivals are of matched strength the result is uncertain.

The bigger the mismatch, the more certain the outcome.

That is this increase in certainty that will simplify the decision process.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 23:41 | 2098706 my puppy for prez
my puppy for prez's picture

Why that is possible, I am more inclined to think that, since implosion of the EU would be a SERIOUS hit on the rest of the world, especially the US (and bankers on both sides of the pond are in the same mob), it is really a ploy to take EVERYTHING down to further their New World Order that they have dreamed of for so long.  I think it's more of a coordinated effort....otherwise, EU would have put up more of a fight.  YOu are on the right track, though. 

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 23:02 | 2098626 Ranger4564
Ranger4564's picture

Thanks GW, I'll check it out.  BTW, I very much appreciate your thought provoking articles and the interesting comments they elicit. You and Cog Dis are well worth reading regularly. 

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 21:20 | 2098372 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

Meaningless, I am not building one either but if I spend billions on secret bomb proof bunkers and install thousands and thousands of centrifuges for enrichment far above what is needed for "peaceful" reactors and stockpile every single other item needed to quickly make nuclear tipped missiles, I am evasive and refuse to abide by the terms of international treaties, and I am actively engaging in destabilizing the whole Mideast via my surrogates in Lebanon and Palestine while maintaining a government priority of total destruction of a neighbor, well, you may get the picture and it ain't pretty.  Now add on belligerence toward the US and EU as well as implicitly threatening the other oil states in the region who really do not want Iran to be able to project force because the Arabs KNOW what they will indeed do with it.

I am really sorry for what the neocons did in Iraq, Afghanistan, I railed against the Iraq war as the wrong target for years with zero success, but they are utterly irrelevant to this discussion.  Iraq was a huge lie, made up threat and probably as much to do with personal vendetta as any aspect of oil pricing, but Iran IS not only working on making a bomb even if they are not there yet, and that is a cold hard fact you deny at your peril.  Simple plan, deny there is a pattern and then once there is no "proof" or pattern you can deny there is a problem. 

I hope there is not a war because Iran changed it's heart about this and offered real peace, but I am not willing to sit by and hope they do.  Some wars are unfortunately necessary. 

I also want to point out that while Iranian internal policy is not a cause for war the nation is one of the most tyrannical and evil terroristic places on the planet, the motherfuckers running that place are batshit crazy.  You do know they outlawed Barbie Dolls a few weeks ago right?  Actually in 1996 but just strated enforcing the ban in toy stores.  Not that I care much about dolls but it is a good example of the insane shit they do in that place.  The death penalty for being gay?  You claim to be civilized and yet support people that make Hitler sound reasonable?  Maybe we should wait till they have nukes so it will not be a public relations disaster when we drop nukes on them once and for all. 

By the way, the second Iran Watch link is working and it is the better of the two anyway. 

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 22:28 | 2098525 Joseph Jones
Joseph Jones's picture

Possesing a nuclear bomb is the only deterent to Western attack against Iran.  What do you expect Iran to do?

Outlaw Barbie Dolls?  Now Barbie, as an American capitalist icon, is certainlyl worth dying for!

This stuff is too funny!  The author attempts to gain credibility by admitting the obvious, that the Iraq/Afghan wars were unjustified.  Then he uses his perceived credibilty as proof that we must war against Iran.

I don't want anyone to have any bombs, including the USA.  Conversely, I don't expect the USA or anyone to give up their bombs, including Iran whatever bombs they have. 

If you want to be angry at a foreign land, consider Israel.  More "Israelis" (not Biblical Israelites) convicted of espionage than any other people.  Plus they committed a USA coup when their Mossad assasisnated JKF because JFK prohibited Israel from going nuclear...shortly after Israel's buddy LBJ became president Israel was nuclear.

Tyrannical, evil?  Try our best friends in the ME, the Al Saud family, who flush solid gold toilets while the average Saudi Muslim eats dirt.  Then, to deflect Muslim hatred toward their best friends (you and me, the USA) the Saudis build and finance the Muslim extremist schools where the Saudis teach Muslim children their arch-enemy is the USA, not the Al Saud family.  Sweet, very sweet. 

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 23:42 | 2101629 outofhere
outofhere's picture

Our second amendment should extend to all nations.  What is good for the goose is good for the gander.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 21:38 | 2098399 George Washington
George Washington's picture

The boyz said the EXACT same thing about Iraq.

Also, the top experts say threatining a country strengthens its hardliners and PUSHES IT towards developing nukes.

Your reasoning is a little like the police reasoning here:

 

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 21:09 | 2098348 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

...Iran is nothing but a pathetic tool to be used by evil bastards and the dipshits that defend evil bastards. If you try to stop Iran from playing the part of a dipshit the fools will kill you and if you try to stop the Beast from using Iran the same thing will happen if you try to defend the Iranians that want you dead. There is no stopping this, beyond the pain of your own death. We are going to witness the slaughtering of ourselves, as usual.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 20:21 | 2098237 Tompooz
Tompooz's picture

Even the Israelis are now admitting that there is no evidence that Iran is building a bomb.

http://www.uruknet.info/?p=m85115&fb=1

It looks like we will get a temporary de-escalation in the sabre-rattling.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 20:45 | 2098291 George Washington
George Washington's picture

Thanks ... Good articles by Ray McGovern, former high-level CIA  officer who personally briefed U.S. presidents.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 20:17 | 2098229 John_Coltrane
John_Coltrane's picture

GW:  Despite the differing opinions on evidence I think all can agree with the truth that

"absent of evidence is not evidence of absense".    Just as correlection isn't the same as causation.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 20:41 | 2098276 midtowng
midtowng's picture

I'm sorry but I just can't believe that our government would EVER lie about a middle east country having weapons of mass destruction. </snark>

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 20:24 | 2098243 George Washington
George Washington's picture

Right ... and war should only be waged when there is overwhelming evidence that another country is going to attack us.

That's what the Founding Fathers - and true conservatives - believe. ..

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 20:07 | 2098198 ilovefreedom
ilovefreedom's picture

Rhetoric against Iran and Iraq before it is more about their disinterest in oil transactions in petrodollars via an independence bourse than nuclear weapons.  Iran transacting in Gold/Euros/Etc. undermines the monopoly the dollar has on petrol transactions currently processed only through New York and London.  Almost all US saber rattling is related to USD monopolization and Maintenance of such for international transactions. Iraq was in the process of opening a bourse shortly before the invasion.  Iran is now doing the same, possibly to their peril.  This narrative is quickly becoming less about good and evil as the US would like to portray it and closer to a hegemonic bully maintaining its corporate monopoly on one of the most important commodities in history.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 19:40 | 2098139 digalert
digalert's picture

Of course this isn't about Irans nuke program. Iran just happens to be on the current Barama and the NATO's hitlist. Codename: operation bombs for peace is another stop on a grand MENA tour offering Hope and Change. Hope, as in hope the bombing stops. Change, as in we'll have a regime change. Any little dictator snubbing the NWO will be dispatched.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 02:55 | 2098954 ebear
ebear's picture

Ha Ha Ha.  Somebody set up Iran the bomb, and now all their base are belong to US!

 

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 18:54 | 2098027 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

Chicago Sun Times 11/11/11

A new report issued by the International Atomic Energy Agency states that while it has not yet actually built a bomb, “Iran has carried out activities relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device.” Not nuclear technology for peaceful purposes, as the Iranian government and its international enablers would have it, but mechanisms that are “specific to nuclear weapons.”

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French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said that despite Teheran’s insistence that its nuclear programme was exclusively for peaceful purposes, he was convinced that Iran was pursuing the development of its nuclear arms.

“I have no doubt about it... The last report by the International Atomic Energy Agency is quite explicit on this point,” he told French network i-Tele.

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The United States has calculated that in light of Iran's oil and gas reserves, it would cost Iran several times more to produce a kilowatt of electricity from uranium than from petroleum.

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Uranium enriched to between three and five percent U-235 is typically used to fuel power reactors of the type Iran is constructing at Bushehr

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Despite Iran’s promises to return the spent fuel, Iran has made a number of purchasing attempts that indicate it seeks a capacity to reprocess and manipulate spent fuel. According to a May 2003 French paper submitted to the Nuclear Suppliers Group, Iran has sought to acquire high density radiation shielding windows for hot cells and 28 remote manipulators from the French nuclear industry.[69] Such equipment is expressly designed for the extraction of plutonium from spent reactor fuel.

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The most sensitive endeavor at the Natanz pilot plant has been to increase the enrichment level of low-enriched uranium, an essential step to being able to fuel a nuclear weapon. Iran has justified this action by claiming that the higher enrichment (to 20% U-235) is necessary to fuel a small Iranian research reactor, although Iran does not presently have the means to fabricate the 20% enriched uranium into reactor fuel elements.     (they cannot make a fuel rod for a reactor)

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There have also been reports that Iran has sought deuterium gas from Russia.[81] According to an intelligence report citing Russian sources that was circulated at the IAEA in July 2004, Iranian middlemen negotiated with companies in Russia to purchase deuterium gas after failing to produce it domestically. Deuterium gas is used, in conjunction with tritium, to boost the yield of fission bombs. Deuterium and tritium are hydrogen isotopes that release neutrons and energy when they fuse in thermonuclear explosions.

In addition, the French intelligence services have reported that Iran has sought items useful for nuclear tests and simulation, including documentation on flash radiography equipment and pulse generators.[82] Iran has also tried to purchase machines that can be used to shape uranium or plutonium metal, such as isostatic presses and vacuum furnaces.[83] And according to a May 2003 media report, a Swede of Iranian origin arranged the purchase of 44 high-voltage switches for Iran from Behlke Electronic GmbH, a German company. The switches, which were reportedly seized by German customs agents, could be used to trigger nuclear weapons.[84][85][86]

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Suspicions about Iran’s intentions have also been increased by Iran’s refusal to cooperate with the IAEA. In early February 2008, the IAEA presented member states, including Iran, with specific evidence that Iran had pursued work related to nuclear weapons. In its May 2008 report, the Agency listed eighteen documents supporting these allegations. Iran has called the documents “forged” or “fabricated,” and refuses to help the Agency investigate their validity by providing access to individuals, records and sites. For instance, it has barred IAEA inspectors from interviewing Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, former head of the Physics Research Center who was reportedly described by the IAEA as the Iranian military official in charge of Iran's nuclear effort.

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Washington above states there is NO evidence that Iran is building a bomb.  There is no proof yet perhaps but there is ample evidence, only someone deliberately trying to fool themselves or others would make the claim Iran is attempting to mount a nuclear program for strictly peaceful purposes. 

Iran cannot be allowed to have nuclear weapons, if they do get them there WILL be a nuclear war. 

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