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Could A Market Crash Be Imminent?
We are currently witnessing a pattern in the stock markets that has occurred multiple times in the last century.
That pattern is:
1) a Spring Crisis
2) a Summer rally (on light volume)
3) The BIG Crisis
This pattern has occurred in 1907, 1929, 1931, 1987, 2000 and 2008. In each of these years, stocks came undone via some kind of Crisis during the March –May period. There was then a brief summer “relief” rally, and then things got VERY ugly in the fall.
Here the pattern in 2008:
So far, the market has been trading sideways for most of 2011, but the pattern is emerging:
Given that the Financial System is now even more leveraged than it was during the Tech Bubble… and that we’ve added TRILLIONS in debt to the US’s balance sheet, the odds of another systemic collapse are getting higher by the day,
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Good Investing!
Graham Summers
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A Super Congress sort of mandates a Super President.
Dudes, about the only stocks that are gonna survive, may be junior miners. Now that the chinese are gonna start buying directly from the actual miners instead of PM companies.
Still waiting to see some more QE. Other than that, any play money I don't buy phyzz with, will be buying some mad puts.
And if technicals aren't enough, how about all of the evidence of the continued debt deleveraging by the average joe consumer. All of this angst about national debt translates into the average person having a bias toward caution. And the markets change at the margins. Topping is a process as the economy changes, it takes time, and the results become evident in fits and starts....
gh
Irrespective of poster's track record, or lack thereof, the charts do actually intimate a fall crash. But the interesting pattern here, if one believes in such things, is that the potential for a much deeper trough heading into FALL 2011 than previous years. In fact, it will be more like a godamn pit if you follow the chart amplitudes of this year.....but WTF do I know?
I think he might be right. My memory has been telling me that when the indexes dip below the 200 day moving average, then rebound, and then when they dive back below the 200 day, it is the real deal. They have a rough time from then on.
gh
This time I think he is right. The raw, unemotional data of history would suggest we are going back to dow 6500 or below. Straight down - probably not. But we may have very well seen a "generational high". 1931 is a good parallel to now.
Good Mr Summers/Pheonix has no more panicked advise on stocking up on canned tuna, fruit and vedge (shops will remain open throughout Depression: chill out, Panic Over)....i hope he hasn't personally also wasted time and money on bunkers, a diesel engine generator and industrial sized water purifier ...crazy lot these financial consultants, got a screw loose most of them (see Leo Kockupalotis screwless and away with the fairies)
Keep calling em. One day you'll be right
Hell yeah!!!
Lets hope so.
Then maybe the people will get a little upset like this Professor guy who is enraged about the situation his country is in. Check this out and pass it on:
Part 1:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dlf4gOvzxYc
Part 2:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mDlEOmcALwQ
BTFD, again.
CAT to 110 in a month. There's 10 per cent right there in 30 days.
Could be, and then again, they may be able to print through it - we'll see !
Gerald Celente Is ALready claiming an economic martial law is coming.
http://theintelhub.com/2011/08/01/gerald-celente-%e2%80%9ceconomic-marti...
Martial law means Americans Freedoms GONE
http://theintelhub.com/2011/08/02/martial-law-in-north-america-represent...
Before you sell all your paper and take massive losses, sign up for my newsletter first!!!
A clue for you and everyone else who makes these pointless posts.
This web site is not a hobby it is a business like all other high traffic sites. It costs a lot of money to host and takes a lot of work to keep running.
A source of revenue for a site like this is paid advertising, which is what at least some of these "contributor" articles are.
This is a FREE SITE and if the relatively unobtrusive devices used to collect some revenue to run it bother you, why are you here?
(disclaimer: I have no business or any other affiliation with this site whatsoever)
Keep using those ipads. The I inaccurate finger pointing has me clicking on at least 100 times the ads. Best thing ever for ad supported internet.
Ja,mon ...
Worst 'feature is while holding the device by edges and inadvertently touch the top of the screen = > ZOOM up to the very top, then scroll forever to regain one's lost place. No cursor arrows either so edits are a pain.
Maybe some way to turn that off.
iPad close to electric
Book. But buggy still Afaik. Worth 1/3 of an ounce of Au think I.
Wonder how long to get AAPL under 100 again?
you should read Pascal, his 'Pensees'.
Humans are so conditioned by evolution to spot patterns they see them even when they don't exist, so take historical price data with a big grain of salt. We're all fooled by randomness and the illusion of control of our destiny. We need to believe this or we might get depressed. However, the uncertainty principle is not restricted to the atomic world.
But it does appear there's more bad things that could happen in the future than good ones. Resource bottlenecks coupled to unsustainable population and associated environmental damage come to mind as the big theme of our century. All exponential growth processes are truncated eventually.
What do you think the markets actually track? They track the patterns of humans recognizing patterns. If enough people see a pattern emerging, they will take actions that are ultimately the underlying cause of the emergence of the pattern. Humans actually are very predictable creatures, especially enmasse.
Not making a prediction but the pattern he points out is completely backed up by behavior and timing of market participants. There is an addage, sell in May and go away...nothing happens in the summer as a lot of the people are on vacation and just generally enjoying themselves. Big money takes a break outside of major catalyst times, like this week, so low volume drifting markets is what you get. Add in the algos and low volume driftless becomes a low volume up market (buy low, sell high is the game after all). Past Labor day, big money comes back and starts working hard - taking a real look at things. This is what causes major moves in Fall on high volume.
Now, I'm not making a prediction or backing this up fully so let me go on record stating that the financial system was not uber:leveraged during the damn Tech bubble as the author states - corporations were, hence the mega distressed debt market early in the decade and why corporations are lean and low leverage now (they didn't ramp back up). Banks were relatively okay back then. The financial system/banking became overleveraged after that period (thanks to government repeal of Glass Steagll but mostly the damn leverage limits being removed and letting them manufacture and leverage up on securitizatized asset pools) culminating in 2007-2009 issues. They are still not repaired today (especially Europe) but leverage accross the system in funds etc... is far far lower than it was then. I don't know anyone running a massive risk book, people have been prudent and banks have been prudent extended credit - they are just still dealing with the legacy issues in Resi and Comm Real Estate.
Chaos is the Natural Order.
For confirmation, see "Plutocracy" which -----thru the aid and abetment of the 4th Estate---- is called 'republican democracy' , to provide the peeps with the ultimate illusion that they have control over their lives.
honestly, don't mind reading the articles and I'm bearish....but the sky is falling so buy my newsletter is getting old.
What people need to consider is the basic premise. All observations about the behavior of markets presume there is a market. Today, there is no market, only massive manipulation with tiny shreds of real trading around the fringes.
Spot on, spot on. Our market is so controlled now that it's a joke anymore. Most of the trading is done by algorithms from High speed trading. The rest as you said is on the fringes.
2008 that market didn't fall it was pushed. the same group isn't at the levers any longer, except bernanke. these guys have been all in on mark to myth valuations. i just don't see it, unless you are telling me the market is following empirical data? frankly i would believe in space aliens first. (disclaimer there were strange lights over El Cajon Ca, last night)
(El Cajon?, I'm sorry, I didn't know you were having a rough time of it)
Perhaps it was some early Perseids activity?
jeezus you may be right! do you have a newsletter that i could subscribe to or sumthing? huh?
*chuckle*
I don't think many of us have any idea how bad it CAN get...but I think all of us may be getting closer to getting a good sized taste of the big shit sandwich that is coming.
These will be the times that try men's souls....
It's gonna be bad for some but not all.
But for those who didn't prepare, it's gonna be shit for sure.
This crisis will be different than any previous crisis because EVERYONE ABSOLUTELY SAW IT COMING and still did nothing.
Yo, I've been warning the people I care about to duck & cover (under a Ag/Au shield for months now!)
"How to Buy Gold at $350 "
The big fucking secret? GDX...otherwise known as DOWN 5% for the year - even with gold up at all time highs. Sure equities will crash but somehow these particular equities will soar. Puhlease! Don't bother.
Paper is just that, whether it says "GOLD" in crayon or not.
American Gold Eagles come in 1/10 Toz sizes as well!
The Fed indirectly accounts for 50% of the Market Cap. Would they not simply plug the gap if any of the other 50% flees, even with the inevitable hyperinflationary consequence?
These Central Bankers are like Pavlov Dogs, the stock markets must rocket for eternity, main street be damned.
Quadrillions in pension and retirement funds need to be sustained whatever it takes. 401Ks need to be too. The government holding up the securities 'values', is a welcome innoculation to the alternative, worthlessness.
"You've been living in a dream world, Neo." -- Morpheus, "The Matrix"
Hindenburg Omen, 2nd day in a row, signal tripped.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYMO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p20489603975
Wasn't the last one a bust.
Maybe qe2 quashed it?
Yes, last time in Dec was a bust for sure, technical indicators don't seem as relevant in a high frequeny churned and quote stuffed fixed market with daily POMO interventions. Tyler at the time thought it was due to end of year hedge fund activity. However, in general the HFT interventions and the Fed have more or less propped up this market for so long... I look at this kind of thing as a loss of control
I thought patterns were repetitive but the market was unique. Invisible hand oblige.
The market downturn is 'transitory'
he bought gold and sold oil, he painted bimbos like goldfinger, and junked paper promises down the shute.
<----- You think market crashes this Fall.
<----- You don't think market crashes this Fall.
Before Labor Day
when does the super market crash?
Better question, how long will the "Super" Congress thing last?
When they can no longer re-stock Haagen-Daz.
Down arrow only because September 23rd is a bit far away.