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Crazy Little Thing Called Greece

Submitted by ilene on 02/06/2012 17:09 -0400

Crazy Little Thing Called Greece

(From Monday Market Madness - What's This Greece Thing?)

Courtesy of Phil of Phil's Stock World

NOW Greece is going to matter?

Just when we were planning to get bullish, the Futures are off half a point as concerns about Greece, of all things, come back to the forefront. Pretty much the entire country is poised to strike this evening on the expected news that even stricter austerity measures will be jammed down the throats of a Nation that is already suffering from 20% unemployment.

Greece's debt is "only" 159.1% of its GDP - that's just lunch money to Japan, and you don't see anyone worrying about it, do you? Portugal's debt to GDP ratio went from 106.5% to 110.1% last quarter, but the year before it was at 91.2%. So let's look on the bright side and say its debt is acceleration is slowing. Ireland also "only" rose to 104.9% (not 105%!) from 102.3% and that's much slower than the run from the previous year's 88.4%, which is about where the UK is now (85.2%) and that's below the EU average of 87.4%. So bravo Britain and all that!

(View larger image here)

As I said to Members in this morning's Chat, I am resolved to only look on bright side of the news until we fail to hold our technical breakouts at Dow 12,749, S&P 1,333, Nasdaq 2,863, NYSE 7,866 or Russell 815 - as long as those hold up, we are beyond the reach of news gravity. We should all do our best to ignore the silliness going on on Earth and just concentrate on which stocks don't have p/e's of 100 yet so we can keep buying along with the crowd.

Looking at our Big Chart, we certainly have an impressive-looking breakout and far be it for me to point out it came at the expense of a weak Dollar. So unless you were 100% in stocks and gained along with the S&P faster than the Dollar fell, you probably had a net loss of wealth during this "rally" as the declining Dollar decimated the value of everything else you worked to build over your entire life. But, hey - look at that S&P go!

jobs-Clinton-Bush-Obama

Jobs are also on the march, unless you listen to Rush Limbaugh and the rest of the Conservative Media's spin on the subject. The last thing the Right wants to see is Americans going back to work - especially during an election year when they are trying to get voters to return to the good old days of the last decade and not endure the horror of another 4 years of Democratic job creation. If this keeps up, workers may actually want raises or - gasp! - benefits...

Reports are that the BOE is set to launch QE3 of $75Bn this week, bringing its total QE up to $500Bn, which is a very impressive 20% of its entire economy - on par with our own Fed dumping $3.2Tn on the markets - which does just so happen to be the Fed's official balance sheet, actually. Our own Treasury needs to borrow another $140Bn this month to keep the lights on and we have 3 and 6-month auctions at 11:30am this morning, 1-month and one-year auction at the same time tomorrow, followed by a 3-year auction at 1pm.

Tomorrow we also hear form Lacker, Lockhart, Fisher and Sack (VP of NY Fed) in an orgy of Fed-speak which will be followed up on Wednesday by Uncle Ben himself at 10 am, then a 10-year auction at 1pm and then Sack again after hours followed by Lockhart, who speaks again on Thursday at 12:40 - just ahead of the 30-year note auction at 1pm. We went long on TLT off that $116 line on Friday as we have faith in our Fed doves to talk up TBills into the auctions.

It's a very boring data week with Consumer Credit tomorrow along with Small Business Optimism and Michigan Consumer Sentiment on Friday but nothing else of note so the attention should be all on Greece and earnings. Since either Greece will pass a debt deal and Athens will be in flames tomorrow or Greece will not pass a debt deal and Europe will be in flames tomorrow - I am liking those TLT longs (we picked up the weekly $115 calls for $2)!

That's all the news we want to look at as we need to maintain a positive mental attitude if we are to go bullish now, at the former top-end of our range.

Our bullish premise rests on Greece being fixed, Portugal not immediately becoming the next crisis, the rest of Europe finding a bottom, ignoring Japan's debt issues, a soft landing in China and strong growth in America with inflation, while the rest of the emerging markets keep inflation in check.

What, us worry?

Click here to try out Phil's Stock World.

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Tue, 02/07/2012 - 00:01 | 2132885 bankruptcylawyer

fuckfuck fuckfuckfuckfuckfuckfuckfuckfuck vfuckfuckfuckfuck fuckfuck

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 00:01 | 2132884 bankruptcylawyer

fuckfuck fuckfuckfuckfuckfuckfuckfuckfuck vfuckfuckfuckfuck fuckfuck

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 23:36 | 2132835 Dead Canary

Uh, why is this here? So Zerohedge can have balance? Zerohedge IS balance. You can read this crap anywhere. Correction: you can read this crap EVERYWHERE.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 23:52 | 2132868 HD

Indeed.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 23:24 | 2132816 bigmikeO

How do you create 2.7 million jobs while the labor force participation rate drops to a 30 year low? Especially with 30 million more Americans than 1984?

I call Phil BULLSHIT

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2012/01/Participation%20Rate.jpg

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 23:05 | 2132780 Loan Gunman

Come on, Phil, you can do better than this ...

No...he can't.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 22:55 | 2132754 onlooker

You gotta LOVE the Democrats efforts. First they have dead people vote in Elections, sometimes more than once, and now they have dead people in jobs. Yep, no matter what you hear, unemployment is evaporating just like the National Dept.

I watched Chris Matthews last night on meet the press or something, I kept calling for Toto cause I knew we had left Kansas. It seems there are two Worlds of Reality that I cant seem to comprehend. Maybe it is a physics thingy with parallel Worlds dueling for control of the Black Hole of Economics.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 22:45 | 2132729 true brain

THis guy got me confused. In one sentence he is channeling Larry "Fat Face" Summers; in the next sentence, he's a regular Jon Stewart. In between, there is a lot of straddling the line, just like every so-called prognosticators out there. Will someone call the Greece Tragedy already and if you're right be worshipped for ever, or at least until the next crisis?

F*ck it. I'm calling it. Greece will default friday night Eastern USA time; after the market closes.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 22:26 | 2132682 disabledvet

I call "ponzi" here. I say the purpose for said "plan zombie for Greece" is because Europe really is the real deal--and without an ever expanding EU then the whole thing collapses. I'm still fascinated by the fact that Madoff really took it to Europe--"takes a ponzi to know a ponzi" is why.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 22:25 | 2132679 homersimpson

Phil - Stick with the facts, and not the libtard stuff a website like Business Insider would put out.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 22:24 | 2132677 non_anon

Shine On You ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BLKiMbC6s2k

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 21:21 | 2132549 lasvegaspersona

Phil

if I missed some sarcasm I do apologize...was that last couple of paragraphs sarc or no?

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 21:14 | 2132535 lasvegaspersona

Phil

care to defend that comment about the unemployment rate in view of several articles and video clips featured right here at ZH that show the opposite? Or are you with Larry Summers in simply mis-stating the facts and shoving your opinion at us?

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 19:53 | 2132365 skepticCarl

Greece and its economic problems, and the implication for Europe, have been on everyones radar for at least two years. Clearly, the markets have digested the potential outcomes, and have issued their assessment: a huge yawn. Move on, Ilene, and guest posters!

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 20:24 | 2132431 Buck Johnson

Just like how the US said everything was fine and banks where capitalized well right before Lehman. Your correct, Europe and the US and essentially the world have known for at least 2 years that Greece had problems. But to go back even further, they also knew back 8 to 10 years ago at least that Greece couldn't service there debt, eventually they would default unless helped. Why did the companies and countries and banks still buy their crap. It's because they are banking on a bailout to help fix this problem. And to be honest with you that is what they are hoping for this time. They can't believe that things are as bad as they say, but they are.

Also another thing to consider, the market has only "digested" what potential outcomes that WE the govt. and banks have fed it not the markets. The whole financial system is so distorted and warped from intervention where you shouldn't to not intervening when you should, that what looks calm may be panic and what looks like panic may be calm.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 21:19 | 2132544 lasvegaspersona

Buck....zee grammar Nazis are watching you

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 19:52 | 2132362 Capt Tripps

Just gotta keep that postive mental attitude!

Cook up a fat shot of that hopium and jam the syringe right in your fucking temple, what could go wrong?

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 19:32 | 2132300 Bear

Thanks for your observations ... I am the Bear that runs with the Bull when times dictate

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 19:29 | 2132289 akak

"Courtesy of Phil of Phil's JOKE World"

Fixed that for ya, Phil.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 19:18 | 2132260 Dermasolarapate...

"A deal is near"..no worries.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 19:07 | 2132233 BliptoP3

I like the space-alien rescue package saves Greece theory better, at least it has a greater than zero chance of happening.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 18:50 | 2132200 Doña K

The bottom is in for the day yes!

Mr. Phil, that little crazy land of Odysseus, will be the second European country to break its chains after Iceland, followed by Portugal and all the other countries you mentioned. Neither republicans nor democrats or BB can stop the tide. Please learn math before you make these statements.

Numbers don't lie. It's a mathematical certainty but what we can not predict is when.

Go ahead and spread the hopium just like the politicians even though you are smart enough to know that we are living on borrowed time. Pun intended.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 20:56 | 2132499 riphowardkatz

Why is it a mathematical certainty? Math tells me that Germany and France must do everything they can to keep Greece in. Otherwise redemptions will unwind the ECB causing the bank to have to print a ton more than real austerity plus write offs plus bail out.

Iceland is not Greece they have their own currency. People keep trying to draw some parallel there and it is apples and bananas

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 15:26 | 2134902 Doña K

It's all about debt in Euro not currency.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 18:44 | 2132187 Howdan

"Our bullish premise rests on Greece being fixed, Portugal not immediately becoming the next crisis, the rest of Europe finding a bottom, ignoring Japan's debt issues, a soft landing in China and strong growth in America with inflation, while the rest of the emerging markets keep inflation in check. "

Hahahahaha I'm sorry that was hilarious. Ummm, you forgot to mention "Ben Bernanke becoming fiscally prudent, a month of Sundays, pigs flying, the sky turning green, Sarah Palin becoming Head of Mensa and Ahmedinejad moving to Israel and converting to Judaism" Apart from that I'm with ya! :-)

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 21:05 | 2132518 riphowardkatz

I think his scenario is very plausible. In fact it mirrors my line of thinking. There is sometimes calm and nice weather before the storm. BTW there are other people who are saying similar things... Dines, Rogers, Faber and Sinclair.

There has been a ton of liquidity injected into the system. That stuff can give people some very high false hopes and it is proven to work miracles for stock markets and government debts and lies and manipulation.

I for sure wouldn't be shorting these markets.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 18:55 | 2132211 Oracle of Kypseli

I agree with what you say, except the last one. Ahmedinejad is actually Jewish and a CIA operative.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 22:48 | 2132733 Treason Season

Have you seen this?

Beware The Ides of March in 2012: The Double Blow of Economic Collapse And World War Is Coming

http://disquietreservations.blogspot.com/2012/02/beware-ides-of-march-in...

In it the author writes about the CIA and Iranian mullahs teaming up to overthrow the Mosaddegh gov't in 1953 and that they are still working together.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 18:43 | 2132183 WTF2

Is TLT the best you got?

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 18:11 | 2132096 Manthong

The bottom is in.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 17:45 | 2131991 bank guy in Brussels

Hey, Phil, you say Obama's administration supervised creating 2.7 million jobs ... Huh ?

Your source, 'zFacts-com' a mainstream Democratic party - type, Paul Krugman adoring type, 'everybody agrees on global warming' type, website of highly biased opinion posing as 'facts', something nearly as unreliable as the CIA fraud Wikipedia ... but of course he's got 'facts' in the website name, is that what tricked you?

Come on, Phil, you can do better than this ...

Crazy Little Thing Called Greece

Crazy Little Thing Called Greece

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