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Death By a Thousand Cuts

ilene's picture





 

GDP Thursday: Death By a Thousand Cuts

Courtesy of Phil of Phil's Stock World

"Death by a Thousand Cuts!"

That's the word this morning from Societe Generale, who titled their Global Earnings Estimates Analysis: "Death by a thousand cuts; double digit downgrades for Eurozone and Japan" and included this spiffy graph to make the point that we are now about to cross back into the negative earnings zone that has, in the past, been a great indicator that we were about to have a HORRIFIC market correction.  

Per Barry Ritholtz, the "highlights" of the report were:  

• Recent earnings forecasts cut by 4.9% and 6.9% for 2011 and 2012, respectively.
• Severe downgrading of both 2011 and 2012 consensus forecasts, with Japan and the Eurozone seeing double-digit percentage cuts to next year’s earnings;
• US stands out with only minor cuts to 2012 forecasts.
Note that on an ex-financial basis, US 2012 forecasts have seen just a 2% cut, which SocGen describes as “hardly consistent with a recessionary or low growth outlook.”  So either we will miss a recession in the US, or analysts are too optimistic.  We have our own Q3 GDP report at 8:30 and that will help give us a clue but I stand by my assertion that, without QE3 - we simply do not have the gas to break away from this downward trend.  On the other hand, my bullish premise (and we're still long-term bullish) is that this is both obvious and inevitable as the alternative is simply unacceptable.

Of course, the EU has just given us a fabulous road map for the next round of QE and they have flooded the World with enough freshly printed Euros that it would hardly make a ripple now if the Fed drops a Trillion here or there in 2012.  Not to be outdone, the Swiss have been considering PAYING Banksters to borrow money and the Government actually voted yesterday (defeated so far) on creating a legal framework for negative interest rates.  

THAT's how crazy things are getting and THAT's what happens when Banksters run a country - a fate the United States is itself in the early stages of. When the primary purpose of the Government (and that's YOUR elected officials spending YOUR money) becomes finding bigger and better ways to give money (that they don't have) to Banks - THE SYSTEM IS BROKEN!  Really, what does it take to wake you people up???

"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered...I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies." - Thomas Jefferson

8:30 Update: The 3rd estimate of the Q3 GDP dropped 10% to 1.8% from 2%.  If not for the Core PCE rising 5% to 2.1% - it would have been worse.  Personal Consumption fell from 2.3% to 1.7% but hey, what's a 26% downward adjustment between friends, right?  As noted by SocGen above, Corporate Profits were revised down 25%, from 1.6% to 1.2% so, overall, an anemic report. Fortunately, we were on top of it as I put up a note to Members in the early morning Chat with an idea to short oil ahead of the GDP ($99 on /CL), i.e.:

My logic on oil this morning is A) A 10Mb draw and $99 is all they can do?  B) If our GDP is bad, demand is bad and oil goes down  C) If our GDP is good, the Dollar is strong and QE3 less likely and oil goes down.  So, on the whole, I think it’s safer to short oil than short the indexes ahead of the GDP but, just like yesterday – the smartest play is actually cash!  

Oil actually topped out at $99.30 just ahead of the GDP (someone must have felt the opposite of what I did) but has plunged back below $99 already so the egg McMuffins are safely paid for with a stop at $99 (now $98.90) that can trail by .10 to capture more gains. Oops, even as I write this we're crossing $98.80. At $10 per penny per contract - this is good money!

The Dollar is popping to 80.45 and that's an odd reaction, probably because the upward revision of Core PCE plus the "good" jobs number ("only" 364,000 people lost their jobs last week) pushes QE3 a bit further off the table for the moment.  Although the Chicago Fed fell to -0.37 from -0.11 in October, it also showed positive movement in the employment, unemployment, and hours categories.

$98.70!  

Speaking of oil - We had an exciting decrease of 10.6 Million barrels of oil in yesterday's inventory report and oil shot up from about $97 to $99 on that news.  It was, of course, a crock!  Looking at the full report (released at 1pm) we can see that imports were down 741,000 barrels PER DAY - so there's 5.2M of our missing barrels right there (2 tankers diverted for a day takes care of that to goose prices into the holiday weekend).  Also, we EXPORTED 390,000 barrels of product PER DAY - another 2.7Mb out the door for the week.  390,000 barrels of exports per day ranks us ahead of Sudan as a global oil provider!  

Even more fun - the refineries produced just 18.5Mbd of product, which may sound like a lot but last year at this time, that number was 19.65Mbd - so the US Energy Cartel has cut production by 8.5 Million barrels per week and THAT is why US Consumers are paying 10% more than we did last year even though we have cut our consumption by 10%.  I wrote to Members this morning:  

Oil started the year at $92.50 and demand now is lower than it was then but it too will likely flatline between $97.50 and $100 so not much of a pull on the market either way. Gold is bravely holding $1,600, which is up $200 for the year but they forgot to manipulate Silver, which is down 5% from $31.50 or Platinum, which is rarer than gold but down 22% from $1,800 to $1,400.  It’s very historically rare for gold to be higher than platinum (and makes no logical sense) so 22% is the idiot factor in gold, at least.  

If you want a reality check – look at copper, which fell from $4.50 in Jan to $3.25 yesterday (down 27%) – that’s the reality of the Global economy!  

This whole market may be heading towards a reality check in January but, for now, it's almost Christmas and oil is back over $99 and we're not going to re-short unless the Dollar pops 80.50, which is doubtful as that's below $1.30 on the Euro and the Swiss are willing to pay their Bankers to make sure that doesn't happen!  

Let's be careful out there - tempting though it may be to short this nonsense - cash is king!  

 

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Fri, 12/23/2011 - 12:17 | Link to Comment dcb
dcb's picture

Ok, plot the s and p 500 weekly and we are just about where it should stop.  11:16 am 12.23.11 not sure why it isn't a good time to throw some short money in, and tighten the stops.

Fri, 12/23/2011 - 00:41 | Link to Comment non_anon
Thu, 12/22/2011 - 19:28 | Link to Comment swani
swani's picture

George Soros and the Koch Brothers are manufactured boogeymen. What I mean by 'manufactured' is that they are played up by the MSM to divide the country into two different 'teams'.

Anything either boogeyman is seen to 'support' is quickly discounted by the opposing side.

This is very convenient for the people that are currently running our country into the ground, as they can easily, use these 'boogeymen' every time they want to demonize anything or anyone, like the Occupy movement or Tea Party, for example.

However, the interests of both of these guys are very much aligned, as should have been quite evident to all, when the Koch Brothers got the courtesy call to move their 10 positions, 2 weeks before MF Global declared bankruptcy.

Another shining example of this, is how Soros and the Koch brothers are both heavily invested in Veritas Capital which is the second biggest recipient of the DOD budget which includes Homeland Security.

The media is complicit in helping to perpetuate this Kabuki Theatre. For example, CNN, MSNBC, Glenn Beck and FOX are always in attendance at the Koch Brothers 'strategy' meetings, along with top executives from B of A, Wells Fargo, Goldman, JP Morgan, Exxon, Pfiser, Carlyle Group, Veritas, ext. After Citizens United was passed, Supreme Court Justice Thomas was at one of these 'strategy' meetings, as a paid speaker.

The faster that people realize that the Right vs. Left reality show on the infomercial media is only impersonating a Democracy, the better.

Only then, will have a chance at a real Democracy, where the interests of the majority of the American people that are not in attendance at these closed and secret meetings and not financially invested in the Military Industrial Complex, Big Banking, Big Oil, or Big Pharma, are represented by their elected government.

 

 

 

 

 

Fri, 12/23/2011 - 03:35 | Link to Comment AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

George Soros and the Koch Brothers are manufactured boogeymen. What I mean by 'manufactured' is that they are played up by the MSM to divide the country into two different 'teams'.

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

No. Nothing manufactured. Division into two 'different' teams.

US citizens strive for conformity and uniformity.

A conform and uniform environment does not exclude opposition.

The environment on the other hand selects what kind of opposition can exist.

As US citizens have been extremelly successful into installing conformity and uniformity, the favoured type of opposition is what was known as rivalry in old times when the world was much more diverse, much more singular and when other types of opposition were allowed to be.

Rivals are divided. They want, wish, expect the same though. But they are divided.

Duelists want the same: they might want to have sex with the same person, they want to kill the other duelist. You can swap one for another but in all case, the outcome show the division: it is not the same if duelist A got killed while duelist B outlives.

US citizenism has installed uniformity and conformity. The result is that opposition is now formally reduced to rivalry.

Unsurprisingly, US citizens want to hide that fact (US citizens love to propagate themselves as agents of diversity and singularity) and never call political candidates for what they are: rivals. But prefer the more generic term: the opposition which might lead to think that both sides do not want the same, do not wish for the same etc (diversity, singularity)

Soros and the rest of the high profile bankers are what they are: rivals.

Political candidates are what they are: rivals.

They are divided but they long for the same.

NOthing manufactured, only US citizenism at work.

Thu, 12/22/2011 - 21:32 | Link to Comment MrNude
MrNude's picture

Indeed, if Mr Soros is a great patron saint of the left like we are led to believe why did he help bring down Communism in Europe. 

The right and left are like a persons hands, both belong and are controlled by the same body. They are not independent entities.

Thu, 12/22/2011 - 23:15 | Link to Comment Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

The totalitarian left wants sky high prices and taxes, it is the largest impediment to upward mobility.

The totalitaian right does not.

Soros is obviously not the patron saint of the central planning big government neo marxist imbeciles, he just gives them a blank check.

 

Thu, 12/22/2011 - 18:49 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Wells Fargo talked my Son into a credit card when he went to deposit a paycheck.

He's in high school and working a part-time $8.25 an hour job and they gave him a $1,000 credit limit; likely at 29% interest.

Have things changed?  No.

I told him to cut it up and never use it.

The banks are happy to hand out debt, because if it can't be paid, the taxpayer will pay it via the Treasury and FED.

What a racket!

They've got us coming and going.

God Bless Thomas Jefferson; wisdom is a precious commodity.

Thu, 12/22/2011 - 20:32 | Link to Comment QQQBall
QQQBall's picture

You need to educate your children. If enough peopel cut the cards up, in a little while, WFC will institute a account maintenance hcrage; basically, charging him for not using the card. Have hom buy a couple of things on the card, pay them off immediately and cancel the card.

Thu, 12/22/2011 - 18:48 | Link to Comment PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Good article. I sold several  holdings in my folder yesterday on the bounce. Cashing out so i can have some morepowder for when the SHTF....which it will and then I'll back up the truck and BTFD.

Thu, 12/22/2011 - 18:08 | Link to Comment TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

So is this article saying that I should save FRNs under my matters, or should I save silver under my mattress? 

Thu, 12/22/2011 - 18:07 | Link to Comment Manthong
Manthong's picture

Re. Jefferson quote..

I agree with the sentiment and Jefferson probably would too, but it is a slight exageration of something he actually wrote.

http://www.monticello.org/site/jefferson/private-banks-quotation

Thu, 12/22/2011 - 18:04 | Link to Comment Dirtt
Dirtt's picture

Cash & Tea.  

Thu, 12/22/2011 - 18:00 | Link to Comment James T. Kirk
James T. Kirk's picture

Mr Rogers says. "Can you spell C A S I N O?"

Thu, 12/22/2011 - 17:34 | Link to Comment wolfgang0007
wolfgang0007's picture

Very good article Ilene, what is your background, it's extremely detailed, and you don't pull any punches.

We should have more writers like yourself that write with a hand on their inflation ladden hearts, which will continue if these thiefs continue to run our governments. Our forefathers were so wise, they did not know we would use their same principles 200 plus years later.

Thank you again for the proper illustration of corrupt banksters at work....

XOXO

RC

Thu, 12/22/2011 - 23:16 | Link to Comment ilene
ilene's picture

Hi Wolfgang, the post below's correct. I don't write most articles I post. This one's by Phil Davis (background here: http://www.philstockworld.com/about/phil/) I edit and write some of Stock World Weekly - free trial here.  (My background is largely unrelated to financial markets etc.)  

Thu, 12/22/2011 - 18:43 | Link to Comment Cant see me
Cant see me's picture

Wolf,

  The article is by Phil's Stock World , Ilene just posted it.

Thu, 12/22/2011 - 22:14 | Link to Comment Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

Here's one from a few days ago:

No Virginia, There is No Santa Claus Rally

Thu, 12/22/2011 - 17:18 | Link to Comment jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

Gold is bravely holding $1,600, which is up $200 for the year but they forgot to manipulate Silver, which is down 5% from $31.50 or Platinum, which is rarer than gold but down 22% from $1,800 to $1,400.  It’s very historically rare for gold to be higher than platinum (and makes no logical sense) so 22% is the idiot factor in gold, at least.

********

Platinum and Silver-like Copper have a heavy weighting of Industrial usage-

Gold is a currency and has basically zero Industrial demand-so comparing them together is flawed-

Silver can and will at some point decouple from the Industrial label and turn Monetary like its big brother-

Thu, 12/22/2011 - 18:52 | Link to Comment PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

What is the best way to hold platinum? Is there an ETF? or some physical you recommend/ Coin? Bar?

Any suggestions?

Thu, 12/22/2011 - 23:50 | Link to Comment BigDuke6
BigDuke6's picture

Palau are u in oz?
If so perhaps check the selection at Www.abcbullion.com.au

Thu, 12/22/2011 - 22:32 | Link to Comment Dr.Evil
Dr.Evil's picture

Anything but ETF's. It's only paper!

Thu, 12/22/2011 - 20:18 | Link to Comment jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

What is the best way to hold platinum? Is there an ETF? or some physical you recommend/ Coin? Bar?

*************

I don't hold any physical Platinum so i have no comment on which is the best form to own it in-

I've held this Platinum company on and off for the last 6 years-I'm out now and will wait until i see an upside breakout or a further correction lower in a broad sell off-

They reflect the PT price as well as anything I've seen-

The huge gap down in price was a forward stock split-

http://bit.ly/rRBD72

http://www.angloplatinum.com/

 

Thu, 12/22/2011 - 17:41 | Link to Comment Widowmaker
Widowmaker's picture

Just ask those that rode the Rhodium bull down.

Or one can see the dramatic reduction in ebay auctions for gold -- it's all "collector or reflector" gold.

T-T-T-Toppy Top Top

Thu, 12/22/2011 - 17:50 | Link to Comment jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

Just ask those that rode the Rhodium bull down.

Or one can see the dramatic reduction in ebay auctions for gold -- it's all "collector or reflector" gold.

**********

Of course gold gets whacked along with commodities most times and imo-those dumping are the inflationists-everytime that deflation presents itself-

They/inflationists buy for the wrong reason-so naturally they sell for the wrong reason-

Gold is "money" and money is the ticket for deflation/credit risk-not inflation-

http://goldprice.org/charts/history/gold_30_year_o_b_usd.png?0.708460334...

If deflation is bad for gold-then you have to say we were in deflation from 1980-2001-

From 2001 until 2008 was not inflation-it was "abnormal inflation" ie:Hyper-inflation of the credit money supply and now we are facing credit default risk ie: deflation and once the weak hands are flushed-gold will continue to act like money-

Thu, 12/22/2011 - 16:57 | Link to Comment falun bong
falun bong's picture

"Banking was conceived in iniquity, and born in sin. Bankers own the earth. Take it away from them, but leave them the power to create money, and with the flick of a pen, they will create enough money to buy it back again. Take this great power away from them, and all great fortunes like mine will disappear. And, they ought to disappear, for then this would be a better and happier world to live in. But if you want to continue to be the slaves of the bankers, and pay the cost of your own slavery, then let bankers continue to create money, and control credit."
ABRAHAM LINCOLN

Thu, 12/22/2011 - 19:51 | Link to Comment GiantVampireSqu...
GiantVampireSquid vs OWS UFC 2012's picture

It is a quote, just not Abraham Lincoln

Thu, 12/22/2011 - 18:44 | Link to Comment richard in norway
richard in norway's picture

josiah stamp, chairman of the bank of england in the 30s and at the time 3rd richist man in england, i belive

Thu, 12/22/2011 - 17:59 | Link to Comment Fred Garvin
Fred Garvin's picture

I believe the quote is from Josiah Stamp.

Here is another gem from ol' Josiah ( (Stamp recounting a story from Harold Cox who quotes an anonymous English judge)

"The government are very keen on amassing statistics. They collect them, add them, raise them to the nth power, take the cube root and prepare wonderful diagrams. But you must never forget that every one of these figures comes in the first instance from the chowky dar (village watchman in India), who just puts down what he damn pleases."
Thu, 12/22/2011 - 17:41 | Link to Comment pemdas
pemdas's picture

“The trouble with quotes on the internet is that it’s difficult to determine whether or not they are genuine” 
- Abraham Lincoln

Fri, 12/23/2011 - 02:21 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

"The NE and European (Roth) bankers wanted me to start a war to steal the south's wealth."

Abe Lincoln

Thu, 12/22/2011 - 18:22 | Link to Comment falun bong
falun bong's picture

"But I thought everything I found on the internet ( a series of tubes) was TRUE..."

- Abraham Lincoln

 

(It's still a great quote)

Thu, 12/22/2011 - 16:55 | Link to Comment falun bong
falun bong's picture

"The end of democracy and defeat of the American Revolution will occur when government falls into the hands of the lending institutions and moneyed incorporations."

- Thomas Jefferson

Thu, 12/22/2011 - 20:45 | Link to Comment RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

"I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs."

Thomas Jefferson

Thu, 12/22/2011 - 16:51 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

chinese torture...like the silk trade it kills you by its slken touch. Soft n gentle. Yin and Yang. Now we know the future is chinese!

Thu, 12/22/2011 - 18:11 | Link to Comment falun bong
falun bong's picture

This is good, somehow we have to balance the donations by the Koch brothers and others...who brought us Herman Fucking Cain. Check out the causes the Koch's support and ask yourself whether they are good for this nation. Not. So maybe George S can balance things out a little.

Thu, 12/22/2011 - 21:46 | Link to Comment Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

George is a self proclaimed socialist at best. The history of the world speaks quite poorly of his kind. Put that in your bong and smoke it.

Fri, 12/23/2011 - 06:32 | Link to Comment williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

Actually, he's a pretty savvy trader as well.

Thu, 12/22/2011 - 23:46 | Link to Comment BigDuke6
BigDuke6's picture

DSK would, while shagging 12 yr old hookers.

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