This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Did Obama Blow Jobs Speech?
Friday Follies - Did Obama Blow Jobs Speech?
Courtesy of Phil of Phil's Stock World
Obama did not satisfy the markets last night.
Although his $447Bn American Jobs Act is a step in the right direction, $307Bn (68%) of the money is coming in the form of tax cuts and Unemployment Insurance extensions, leaving just $140Bn to go towards the creation of actual jobs. Even if every single dollar of that money went directly towards paying a $40,000 salary - the entire amount would employ just 3.5M people, not even 1/4 of the amount of people who are out of work.
Is that the best America can do? Come up with a jobs program that MIGHT lower unemployment from 9% to 7% over the next year? Of course we won't create 3.5M jobs for $140Bn because a lot of that money gets spent on parts and materials. It's certainly not that the projects are unnecessary, it's just that the scope of the program is too limited to have a substantial impact.
In fact, exactly one year ago, I wrote "Jobless Thursday - America's Infrastructure Crisis" where I laid out the TRILLIONS of Dollars worth of repair work that MUST be done in this country sooner or later. Why don't we do them SOONER, while 20M potential workers are sitting on the sidelines? We MUST spend at least $2Tn on infrastructure in the next 10 years so why not spend $400Bn this year and next rather than waiting until the last minute to do anything? The money is all borrowed over time either way but NOW is when people need to get back to work and, of course, if we get necessary projects done now instead of 10 years from now, then we, the People, get to enjoy 10 years of beneficial use out of them. This is not complicated stuff folks, just common sense...
Nonetheless, $447Bn is 3% of our GDP and figure about 2/3 gets spent in the first year so the program SHOULD keep us out of Recession in 2012 - yay, for that at least. If Recession is off the table, then the markets are under-priced - now we have to consider whether or not the bill can get past the Republicans in Congress. By the way, if you have not read "Reflections of a GOP Operative" yet, please do - it's an excellent insight into the current political climate.
We had flipped bearish yesterday, anticipating the potential for disappointment with both Bernanke and Obama's speeches after a nice 5% run-up in anticipation of the same in the first two trading days of the week. In Member Chat we grabbed the SDS Sept $23/24 bull call spread at .30 with bullish offsets so not too bearish but a nice 3.1:1 pay-off (not including the offset) if the S&P pulls back and SDS ends up over $24 next Friday. We finished the day at $23.70 on the sell-off but, as I just said above, it looks like we won't need the hedge as this jobs bill, IF PASSED, has an excellent chance of keeping us from contracting.
Since our hedges (there were 3 new ones in Member Chat yesterday) are fully offset with bullish bets, we can afford to hold them over the weekend - especially as New York and DC are on terror alert this morning (and Southern California lost power last night), which is hopefully nothing with 9/11 coming on Sunday but, just in case, we are better safe than sorry.
It wasn't all bearish betting yesterday, though, we found long trade ideas we liked (hedged, of course!) on HPQ, WFR, DF and XLF with shorts on USO (as oil touched $90 again), Oil (/CL) Futures (huge winner this morning with oil at $87.50!) and AGQ so mixed betting - down with commodities, bottom-fishing in stocks, was the theme but we do stand ready to tip more bearish if our levels fail to hold (see yesterday's post).
There will be more Fed Speak today as SF Fed Dove, John Williams speaks at 11:15. Williams helped send the markets lower yesterday as he cut his growth forecast for the second half of the year to 2% (not too bad) and called for immediate and strong action by both Congress and the Fed, without which he sees no change in the 9.1% unemployment rate saying: "The real threat is an economy that is at risk of stalling and the prospect of many years of very high unemployment, with potentially long-run negative consequences." We'll see how he feels about Obama's proposal later this morning. Williams' great concern is the same as everyone's - that "Europe’s debt crisis has the potential to slam U.S. financial markets and deal a further blow to already fragile confidence. A downturn in Europe could knock the props out from under the U.S. recovery.”
Speaking of Europe, they are down about 1% this morning but it's the Euro itself that's the real story, dropping all the way to $1.377 as the EU heads into lunch. That's the lowest the Euro has been since February, when the Dollar was way up at 78.50. That's another 2.5% up from here and, as we all know, a 2.5% rise in the Dollar can very easily give us a 2.5% or GREATER drop in the markets. If we're going to have any silver lining from the rising dollar (aside from falling commodities) let's look for the Russell to begin to outperform as a strong Dollar is good for small companies who do most of their business in the US (and not at all good for the few exporters we have left).
There's a G7 Meeting this weekend as central bankers and finance ministers from the Group of Seven nations convene in Marseille, France, for their first face-to-face talks since they promised "coordinated action" Aug. 8 to calm financial markets, Europe's failure to stamp out investor worries over sovereign debts are set to be the focus. Any global recession "will have Europe's fingerprints on it," said Constance Hunter of Aladdin Capital Management LLP in Stamford, Connecticut. "Europe is the real risk." It's not the only risk as policy makers race to head off a recurrence of the contraction, the worst since the Great Depression, that followed the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. three years ago this month. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development yesterday said the G-7 will barely expand in the final quarter as the euro region shrinks.
The cost of insuring Greece’s debt against default shot to a new high on Thursday, as investors increasingly see the country in a risk class of its own, even compared with other troubled euro-zone economies. Greece’s five-year credit default swaps rose to 3008 basis points, up 288 basis points from Wednesday, according to data provider Markit. The Greek government said Thursday the economy contracted in the second quarter even more than was originally thought, by 7.3% instead of 6.9%. Officials conceded the government will fail to cut its budget shortfall as planned this year.
The rest of Europe is losing patience with Greece. Germany has hinted Greece will not get its next bailout check unless it gets its act together, and Finland reiterated its insistence on collateral for more Greek aid, a controversial condition that has Europe divided and threatens to delay new agreements. “The euro zone has spent a year trying to bail out an over-indebted country by loaning it more money,” LeBas said. “That’s not going to work in the long run. Some form of Greek default is a largely foregone conclusion.”
Japan has revised their annualized GDP to NEGATIVE 2.1%, down from the -1.3% initial reading as Capital Spending was revised to -0.9% from +0.2%. China, meanwhile, is looking at 6.2% August Inflation, led by rising food prices which, unfortunately, make up 40% of the average Chinese family's budget.
It looks like the G7 have plenty to discuss this weekend.
Have a good one,
- Phil
Try out Phil's Stock World or our newsletter, Stock World Weekly here >
»
- ilene's blog
- 11336 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Entertainment Supplies
Wholesale Dartboard
Wholesale Dartboard
Wholesale Cup
Electrical Gifts
Wholesale Bracelet
Wholesale Radio
Wholesale Candle
Poncho Raincoat
Baby Products Suppliers
Promotional Products
Business Gift
Wholesale Cap
Voice Recorder
Business Gift
Wholesale Lanyard
Wholesale Toys
Wholesale Tellurion
Pen Holder
Wholesale Racks
Wholesale Furniture
Wholesale Clap Hands
Promotional Gifts
Beauty Equipment
Promotional Gifts
Wholesale Thermometer
Wholesale Bookmark
Wholesale Whistle
China Wholesale
Audio Video Equipment
Health Care Products
Wholesale Stapler
Wholesale Whistle
China Wholesale
Wholesale lable
Entertainment Supplies
Wholesale Belt
Coca Cola Gifts
Wholesale Mouse
Wholesale Album
Vocal Concert Products
Wholesale Shoe
Wholesale Clothes Rack
Silicone Wallet
Wholesale Bookmark
Has been created keeping in view of the IT-professionals. Madison Jobs This site will help you "Professionals" to quickly and efficiently locate many opportunities that exist.It's
user friendly tool to help you match your own Specifications, Qualifications and
Requirements."
Wholesale Calculator Wholesale Album
Vocal Concert Products
Wholesale Shoe
Automotive Products Personal Safety Products
Industrial Supplies
Wholesale Compressed Products
Wedding Favors Wholesale iPod iPhone
Wholesale Earphone
Wholesale T-Shirts
Manicure Set Garden Decorations
Wholesale Tellurion
Wholesale Umbrella
Wholesale Shoe Wholesale lable
Wholesale Keyboard
China Wholesale
Wholesale Toys Wholesale Banner
Flash Gift
World Cup Products
Wholesale Wallet Writing Instrument
China Wholesale
Baby Products Suppliers
Advertising Material Wholesale Camera
Arts Crafts
Electroluminescent
Consumer Electronics Cleaner Products
Sport Support Products
Wholesale Bag
Wholesale Memory Card Wholesale Knife
Wholesale Mouse
Wholesale Massager
"I know you guys..."
Sounds dangerously close to "You People...".
Statist drivel from a stock tout. Mmmm, piñata.
I was shocked to see in the title of this thread: "obama blowjobs speech", then realized it was "blow jobs speech"
Okay - here's a question to others on this thread? For the sake of discussion, if infrastructure spending were to be approved by Congress (slim to no chance, admittedly) WHAT should that infrastructure be? What is the infrastructure of the twenty first century? If we were spending $2T, $4T, whatever, WHAT should we be investing in to actually improve the country, not just dig holes to fill holes?
Jeeez,
I didn't bother listening to his speach as I thought it would be more of the same.
But a blow job speach?
That would have been worth listening to.
Phil is the gif that keeps on giving to the schizophrenics of this world. How can he be a capitalist and a progressive marxist at the same time.
even Michelle Obama hung her head in shame when it was over
I've got some land, a .44 Rem Mag and a 9 mm semi. Just give me a few chickens, roosters, and some non GMO seeds. If it gets real bad, who gives a sh!t if the seeds are non GMO.
You guys are killing me! I laughed so hard that I actually became........aware that ZHrs are sick! SICK I tell you!
The most important thing for America to do, is to prepare to front run the revolution so that it doesn't slip from its second stage, into its third, which is a descent into violence. We're already in the 1st stage and no one even knows it. But the New American Revolution will be out on the street soon, and its purpose is to help light the way. Have a nice weekend.
We won't be through the pain of deleveraging until we go through the pain of deleveraging. Now if you want to shift the pain to others (who?) or to the future, that's a possibility, as our recent history shows.
Fiscal spending is deleveraging - its debt but its not leverage.
Ouch!
Ummm, whaaa?
"Although his $447Bn American Jobs Act is a step in the right direction, $307Bn (68%) of the money is coming in the form of tax cuts and Unemployment Insurance extensions, leaving just $140Bn to go towards the creation of actual jobs."
Government can't "create" jobs. All they can do is get the hell out of the way of jobs being created.
And, he submitted nothing...there is no Bill. There is no budget request. There is no fucking budget at all. There is nothing on paper anywhere. Thats why everyone is laughing at him.
Furthermore, we just went through a dog & pony show on a debt ceiling raise with only seven billion in "cuts" and he acted as if his left arm had been sawed off and was being beaten with it.
Now, he comes up with HALF A TRILLION that isn't needed where its at...that can just be shifted around? You fucking progressives have lost your "collective" minds.
Word, amigo. The great O'rator submitted another whiff of hopium in this grandest of grand puppet shows. Same as it ever was...
Did you ever hear of the commons Nmewn ? - Utilties that extract profit reduce the wealth of a country over time.
Is that anything like Barry's Job Czar (Immelt, who sat in the VIP box last night) shutting down productive/taxable labor in Wisconsin and moving it to China?
Yes I think he is a disaster but I am not trying to get into moral arguments on this thread - I am just trying to define the Keynesian framework eventhough I am a debtfree money type of guy (100% reserve banks , goverment MONEY rather then credit creation)
I would then submit, that to define Keynes, is to define immorality. How can the theft of a future generations labor be anything but immoral?
In our system, deficit spending, year after year, decade after decade, to now insurmountable mountains of debt...are we not asking generations unborn to pay for the sins of the father?
That is immoral.
That is what neo-Keynesians cannot seem wrap their heads around.
Again, I believe Keynes was wrong for us from the start for the basic reasons he outlined in the foreword to his German edition of GT...namely...
"The theory of aggregate production, which is the point of the following book, nevertheless can be much easier adapted to the conditions of a >>>totalitarian state<<< than the theory of production and distribution of a given production put forth under conditions of free competition and a large degree of laissez-faire. This is one of the reasons that justifies the fact that I call my theory a general theory."
Which is precisely what the fight is about right now...would you agree or disagree?
No Keynes is just a strap on (pardon the imagery) for private credit production.
Credit production gets into a mess of its own making and if left to fester leads to a breakdown crisis as not enough real deposits are available to pay back a leveraged position.
The trick is to stop private credit production - when goverment produces all its own money there is no need for Keynes
Deficit spending is wrongly titled - there is nearly the same amount of wealth today as yesterday or tomorrow - but not enough wealth is present to withdraw all of the credit deposits - so non - leveraged keynesian spending moves in to bail out the banks.
It works until the banks have reduced resources to a tipping point - and then you get a even bigger breakdown crisis.
"The trick is to stop private credit production - when goverment produces all its own money there is no need for Keynes"
Are we doing fractional reserve banking or Keynes here?
They are very much the same in principle I suppose...which is to socialize loss and privatize profit...in governments case, statism/fascism. While capitalism is the metaphorical act of taking the insolvent statist/fascist out back and shooting him in the head. The insolvent is destroyed there, out back, not saved to plunder the unwary another day.
Keynes was a product of his time when eugenics & Fabian socialism was all the rage. All of that history resides in a place where I am not.
As to whether or not I choose to give you a credit line (which would be private) that would be between me and you in a real world without the government involved at all. In a real world.
We don't live in that world right now. Government and the IB's are a cabal...that's quite apparent.
At any rate, Barry is a disaster as you say. He has never run a business...never made a payroll. Has no concept of what it takes. The mere mention of "tax credits" is the first clue as they are not a tax cut.
He is incompetent just as many said when he was running...the brightest moment was choosing someone even worse than him as VP as it takes impeachment off the table ;-)
Seeya
With regards to hiring veterans, I am a veteran of the US Navy. In the 70's I was trained in Nuclear Power, Electronics, CCTV, and TV and Radio Broadcast electronics. We were taught to troubleshoot to the component level. The World has changed since then with everything now being Surface Mount Technology and most equipment is simply replaced with a Brand New One when it breaks.
No offense but there is no shortage of people that can replace a broke TV with a Brand New One. I honestly don't know how much call there is for Drone Pilots. I suspect that private security and bodyguards is a growth industry but I do not know if they can absorb all the vets.
For sailors their best bet may be Merchant fleets and off-shore oil rigs but again there are not many jobs. For Air Force there is Airports and Boeing or other defense contractors but again.....
By the way, I am an unemployed veteran so I suspect that there will be a lot of us in line.
I am going to go ahead and say you are right - early, but right. Based on some of the mob videos making the rounds, it shouldn't be too much longer.
Ive heard people say that 0bama sucks
perhaps you are right and 0bama blows
what do you think?
does 0bama suck or blow?
Ive heard people say that 0bama sucks
perhaps you are right and 0bama blows
what do you thing? does 0bama suck or blow?
This all reminds me of the Heinlein story about the brother in law of the mayor given the make work job of polishing the brass canon in front of city hall.
When his relative refused to increase his pay the guy went out and bought his own canon and went into business for himself.
None of these jobs produce wealth. They just move money from one pocket to another.
Ilene...nice headline. Read the link you provided to Mr. Lofgren's diatribe. Alot of what he says can be squarely placed on both parties. Both parties court favor with the "rich", both parties are obstructionist. While I hold both parties responsible for gridlock (which Madison purposely put into the Constitution to prevent knee jerk legislation) and current recession...I submit to you that government itself has caused the loss of confidence by citizens of this nation (and around the world for that matter). Government has failed.
There is a good article in the WSJ, Sept 2, p. A 13 in the "opinion" section that precisely explains why Ds and Rs ( ie. government) have failed us. Government needs to be restrained and limited. We need to re-discover what the Founders gave us and expect less. Term Limits, get $$ out of elections , vote for candidates that think "American". Washington was right when he said that a party system in this country would be the death of us...look around...a pox on both parties.
Hi Diamond Jim, I had read/posted Lofgren's article at PSW, and it generated several comments (which anyone can read): http://www.philstockworld.com/2011/09/08/goodbye-to-all-that-reflections... . Maybe I'll post it here - it's certainly a good one for discussion.
Obama summary: Good evening my fellow americans. I'm about to lose to RonPaul in 2012, which will be the most humiliating experience known to mankind, and besides, my NWO masters will torture me to death if that happens.
Somehow I need to win the election, and just about the only large voting block of human beings corrupt enough to vote for me in 2012 is the big union vote. Therefore, here's my payoff... I mean plan....
Obama 2012 ! ! !
Still haven't figured out Obama yet?
He was a poor bullshitter who wanted to be a rich bullshitter. The easiest way? Run for president. It's just a bullshitting contest. All campaigns are bull shitting contests. Obama happens to be the best at bullshitting. He's doing a good job of bullshitting you.
3.5 m jobs ???? Haha ha WTF are you talking about Ilene
3.5 m jobs ???? Haha ha WTF are you talking abour Ilene
He didn't blow it as well as Larry Sinclair did on their homo coke binges.
"Although his $447Bn American Jobs Act is a step in the right direction,...." I stopped dead in my tracks right there and had to force myself to conitnue reading. Tyler typically tears apart such nonsense. I can not believe what I am reading already. This is rediculous to say the least, more of Ilene's drivel. This article is a bunch of sh*t. I see the rest of the posters on this thread agree judging by the topics of discussion. Get lost Ilene. Another Keynesian progressive big governernment clown. Trash this thread boys and girls.
OK G - you will have to change the monetory system before Keynesian spending is not rational - its at the most basic level designed to pay down private debt & reduce leverage.
Its best to do something constructive with this money as at least some of it might create wealth - but unless you want debt free money now which is a honorable goal you are talking shit.
What are you talking about?? There is no money to spend, that is the whole point, I should digress sooner than later here. Fixing debt using debt will fail and always fails. The only solution now is to purge the debt from the system and start over. You can NOT create wealth from debt, no matter how hard you try. And because the governernment is NOT a wealth creater but simply an entity that takes/creates money (now its debt), there is no net gain to the economy, only the losses incurred from beaurocratic overhead and that fact that interest is due on the debt that leverages the previous debt and interest and so on and so forth.Rediculous, Keynesians had their chance and failed miserably. New paradigm bitchez, Austrian school.
No kidding! No matter how often those of us with common sense hear such complete and obvious nonsense, we simply cannot help but be stunned that humans can be so completely stupid about such simple issues.
Agreed, simply shocking.
The Austrian school favours debt money - what are you talking about ?
And you can create wealth from debt although debt extracts the wealth via interest.
Money is just a token - even your precious Gold - be careful , the precious can corrupt & twist your soul G.
And who told you Big Goverment cannot create wealth ?
Were you born in the 21rst century ?
When capital comes from savings, you can create wealth. You can create wealth taking on debt when it originates from savings, in a profitable endeavor. The fallacy lies in the belief that you can create wealth from debt that does not come from savings, but from the creation of more debt. Simple concept is that all money is loaned into existence with interest, there is no wealth generated in this system, only debt. This is the great flaw in the fractional reserve system, leveraged debt. Money is just a claim on labor, debt is a claim on future labor. Future claims have exceed the labor supply both now and in the future.
Amen and amen.
A bank can create or destroy wealth based on no savings by loaning money into existence and giving it to productive or nonproductive people.
Look. If you produce and SAVE... then you can lend your savings to someone else. And yes, the person who borrowed your savings has a debt (to you). But what he borrowed was REAL, because you produced something first. That makes ALL the difference in the real world - in many ways (including how careful you will be to lend only for wise and productive purposes).
To claim that somehow spewing fiat debt out of thin air helps anyone or anything is fraud, because NOTHING was created to produce that debt. Therefore, everyone else (who did not receive that loan) is stolen from (because there is more fiat debt chasing the same number of goods).
But these two points just scratch the surface of the crucial differences between real debt and fiat debt.
Whats the difference between real debt & fiat debt - is debt but a contract written on paper ?
Read below I have provided a nice explanation on the definition of debt.
And in response to "And who told you Big Goverment cannot create wealth ?" I do not see any wealth, all I see is debt, and its worse than that it can not be serviced. So I ask where is the wealth?
So Big goverment had no role in the creation of computers ? - you are looking at it .