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Don't Forget About the Dollar Index
Figure 1 is a weekly chart of the Dollar Index.
Figure 1. Dollar Index/ weekly
The strength of a month ago has given way to weakness over the past two weeks. But the price structure is still bullish, as price has only pulled back to test support levels at 76.65. This would represent a very good low risk entry for those looking to get long the Dollar.
As stated previously, the Dollar remains in a bullish up trend, and such Dollar strength has not been kind to equities over the past 10 years.
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I made a good call earlier this week - told a friend to watch out - CDN could get a bump. It turned out I was right (overnight). My friend is not a trader/invester but in the process of moving across international borders. But if he asked me where it was going to from here - I have no clue.
Edit: I actually find the DXY useful as a rough estimate of what the world thinks of the USD.
A statement regarding trend without TIME PARAMATERS is meaningless.
A statement regarding trend without TIME PARAMATERS is meaningless.
A statement regarding trend without TIME PARAMATERS is meaningless.
A statement regarding trend without TIME PARAMATERS is meaningless.
at the risk of being redundant...short the dollar
"At the risk of being redundant?"
Apparently that's not a cconcern here.
Apparently that's not a cconcern here.
Apparently that's not a cconcern here.
etc., etc., ...
Sucker is poised to bounce and retrace to 82 before the next pause if not 84.60. When it hits that the Kwazy Kwamers will scream gold is dead, stocks are dead, and the Fed knows nothing.
Beer and pretzel time for sure.
Is that 76.59 at the close . Technicals say it's down from here... But technicals dont mean shit in todays market. All that matters is ehat keeps ut from crashing tomorrow!
Where the heck do you see an uptrend in that chart? If you draw a line connecting the highs
and a line connecting the lows, what you get is a steep channel headed lower.
Chart trends are in the eye of the beholder. Quit drinking the kool-aid.
This down channel was broken and DXY established bullish uptrend - at least on the chart here. You can look at multiple timeframes and see different things. When you look at the last 10 years, the trend is still down - so you are right here. However, the economy is going down, the stock market will turn south within few days to a week IMHO, and this will cause liquidations making USD stronger.
There are three factors at play:
- stock market in bearish pattern, so DXY is heading up via liquidations
- exodus from Euro toward USD, so DXY is going up.
- unwinding USD carry trade => DXY will be up.
USD is not worth the paper it is printed on, but these days there are just too many factors favoring USD. I agree with Rogers, who is buying dollar now in order to sell it later.
I gave you green, Final because you wrote the obvious, rational, historical truth and other people whose savvy I respect are saying the same thing. Intuitively, however----I remain more than skeptical even though laughing at this oldman for his lack of intelligence.
All of that against your final sentence which is not a zero hedge, but I am going to continue hold euros and the Swissie unless I get greedy and buy a couple of european banks----I really don't have the stomach for these markets, though greed is a powerful force.
Anyway, thanks for reminding me of the pertinent factors om
The dollar does not seem that strong, to me, intuitively---more like everyone is a small market following the leader
How many people are trading 1000 contracts against how many 'day traders'
and the point akak made above is pertinent or so it seems to this oldman
the trend is still down even with a 'strong militaty' attacking everywhere----makes me think that no one cares except U.S. americans and only a few know what the index is
Try to change dollars anywhere---no one cares like they did a few years ago---think I'd prefer a basket of currencies with some gold and silver mixed among them
Maybe too many dollars???? om
The US Dollar Index is a highly artificial construct, and has no meaningful significance or use outside of the realm of currency daytraders. Any multi-year chart or graph of the DXY is pure bullshit, as it does not adjust for the depreciation of the US dollar in the interim. Forget about the dollar index --- it is little more than crap and a convenient propaganda tool of central bankers and other pro-Establishment status-quo defenders, designed to deflect attention away from the ongoing depreciation of the dollar and all other fiat currencies.
Dollar index is very predictive of our stock market. Weak dollar means we head toa higher stock market and visa versa. I'm sure you knew that though.
So, it was said, were women's hemlines --- until women stopped routinely wearing skirts.
And when they stopped wearing skirts we got a tight-jeans fueled 20-year bull market, which came to a screatching halt with the introduction of yoga pants and uggs. If only I was an Ivy League professor, I could get paid to write a bullshit book on that theory, and would possibly be nominated to serve in Obama's whitehouse.
Not to mention those ridiculous teeny-bopper low-rider jeans, which only enabled every 50 lb. overweight female to flash her muffin-top to the ever-increasingly traumatized public.
It may have a few more days downwards/consolidating, but it'll go back up pretty soon. Not bullish long term, just a short/inter term prolonging of the inevitable fall to come
Agreed, but it has a gap to fill from lower and the lower indicators indicate that it should go lower (weird sentance). Besides, the charts also seem to indicate that the indexes need to consolidate around their 200 EMA's. This could make the year for the Hedge Fund operators. It also indicates that the bottom won't fall out until the New Year. This would make it possible to have not only an American Spring, but a Global Spring. How's that grab ya?
Just scooped it up at 76.95. It's going the wrong way. ho no
stagflation will continue until at least 2021. keep shorting the dollar.
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