This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Either the ECB Prints and Germany Walks… or the EU Sees a Domino Debt Collapse Followed by Systemic Failure

Phoenix Capital Research's picture




 

By now, even the mainstream media is realizing what I’ve been saying for well over a year: that the EU in its current form is finished.

 

I initially believed that we would see Greece kicked out of the EU. However, at this point it looks much more likely that it will be GERMANY who leaves.

 

The reason is quite simple really. Germany WILL NOT tolerate debt monetization. They’ve seen how that situation plays out (Weimar) and will not allow it again, END OF STORY. If the ECB opts to print money, Germany is out.

 

So… the only other option for the EU to last is the leveraged EFSF. However, as we’ve seen, that option is a dead end as well:

 

No new Euro zone money for debt crisis at G20

 

The Euro zone won verbal support but no new money at a G20 summit on Friday for its tortured efforts to overcome a sovereign debt crisis, while Italy was effectively placed under IMF supervision.

 

Leaders of the world's major economies, meeting on the French Riviera, told Europe to sort out its own problems and deferred until next year any move to provide more crisis-fighting resources to the International Monetary Fund.

 

"There are hardly any countries here which said they were ready to go along with the EFSF (Euro zone rescue fund)," German Chancellor Angela Merkel told a news conference.

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/04/us-g-idUSTRE7A20E920111104

 

Remember, the EFSF failed to even stage a 3 billion Euro bond auction without buying some of the bonds itself. And with no one in the G20 wanting to fund the EFSF, the EFSF is in no way going to backstop Europe.

 

So there are now only two REAL outcomes:

 

1)   The ECB prints (and Germany walks) resulting in the Euro losing at the minimum 30-40% of its value

2)   Massive defaults and debt restructuring accompanied by systemic failure in Europe

 

These are the facts. I know that the mainstream financial media and other “experts” like to proclaim that Europe can somehow muddle through this, but they’re wrong. The EU kicked the can down the road for over a year in terms of debt restructuring for Greece. Now it’s facing a problem it CANNOT possibly bail out: Italy.

 

In other words, the can has finally hit up against the wall. The market is not willing to lend to Italy at present levels. Nor is the market willing to lend to the EFSF. The only two potential backstops for the EU are now Germany or the ECB. And Germany WILL NOT allow money printing/ debt monetization to take place.

 

Folks, I don’t know how else to say this, but if Europe experiences just a 2008 type event, it will be LUCKY. The entire European banking system is leveraged at 26 to 1. At these levels even a 4% drop in asset prices wipes out all equity.

 

Add to this the fact that with unfunded liabilities included, the average EU member states sports a REAL Debt to GDP ratio north of 300%, and you’ve got the makings of systemic failure. Indeed, even Germany, the supposed beacon of fiscal stability has a REAL Debt to GDP of 200% (this data point comes straight from Axel Weber’s mouth) and has yet to recapitalize its banks.

 

And Germany is THE most solvent major member of the EU.

 

I cannot say just how bad things will be when the stuff hits the fan in Europe. But the EU is going into a banking/ sovereign crisis with WORSE fundamentals than the US had when it went into its own 2008.

 

So if you have not already taken steps to prepare for systemic failure, you NEED to do so NOW. We're literally at most a few months, and very likely just a few weeks from Europe's banks imploding.

 

When this happens the entire system could go down. I’m talking about bank holidays, sovereign debt defaults, retirement accounts and pension funds wiped out, even food shortages in some areas.

So you NEED to take steps now to prepare for all of this. This includes having some cash on hand as well as actual physical bullion. It also means stockpiling some food and water.

 

And if you’re looking for specific ideas to profit from this mess, my Surviving a Crisis Four Times Worse Than 2008 report can show you how to turn the unfolding disaster into a time of gains and profits for any investor.

 

Within its nine pages I explain precisely how the Second Round of the Crisis will unfold, where it will hit hardest, and the best means of profiting from it (the very investments my clients used to make triple digit returns in 2008).

 

Best of all, this report is 100% FREE. To pick up your copy today simply go to: http://www.gainspainscapital.com and click on the OUR FREE REPORTS tab.

 

Good Investing!

 

Graham Summers

 

PS. We also feature four other reports ALL devoted to helping you protect yourself, your portfolio, and your loved ones from the Second Round of the Great Crisis. Whether it’s my proprietary Crash Indicator which has caught every crash in the last 25 years, or how to stockpile food (where to get it, what to buy, and how to store it) our reports cover this information in great detail.

 

And ALL of this is available for FREE under the OUR FREE REPORTS tab at: http://www.gainspainscapital.com.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Sun, 11/20/2011 - 02:57 | 1895353 Uchtdorf
Uchtdorf's picture

If you truly mean "value," I agree. If you mean "price," no way. You wrote value so I am going to agree. Crud, it's late and I am making no sense.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 15:15 | 1894366 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

I agree 100% but lets be realistic and talk in real terms. A "Country" can't pick up and "leave", where will it "go"? Germany can't "go" anywhere, it will be right where it always has been. I know this sounds funny, but so does the threat of them "leaving the Eurozone" ha, ha.

I agree Germany needs to withdraw from membership/leadership of Club Eurozone, they need to do this as a matter of National Economic Defense, no laughing matter. 

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 16:39 | 1894477 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Their export market will go down and so will their economy.
They joined the club and they''ll have to do what the rest of the club demands!
FIGHTCLUB BITCHEZ!!!!

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 18:36 | 1894626 BigDuke6
BigDuke6's picture

You and summers are wrong.

i'll post on BK's thread and tell you why.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 16:24 | 1894458 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

I would never want to belong to any club that would have someone like me for a member.

 

Except for the FC!!!

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 08:56 | 1897967 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

I once went out to a pub for a beer with a neighbor that disappeared for about an hour after we got there, when he returned we went in his car to go back home but once on the I-84 he started jerking the wheel left then right saying "do you believe in GOOD or EVIL?  This went on for a couple miles till we were next to the trailer of a semi going about 65 mph.  He decided the answer was EVIL and jerked the wheel to the right HARD.  Drove under the tires of the big rig which spat us out and rolled us over and over till we hit a Mazda sized rock in the median.  I had never seen the fight club but it turns out the crazy assed bastard was playing out a scene from the movie.  I am very lucky to be alive, was transported to hospital by ambulance which the guy had no insurance to pay for, lucky me, also his driver license was invalidated by North Carolina the previous year which would explain why he was in New York.  Don't let them tell you that media does not have serious effects on people and their behavior.  I will limp on cold wet days the rest of my life becuase of it. 

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 18:49 | 1894654 wombats
wombats's picture

I though rule 1 was "Never talk about Fight Club"

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 15:01 | 1894347 Mediocritas
Mediocritas's picture

Germany can't walk. If it does, it kills off a big chunk of European exports. German manufacturers will resist any attempt to leave the euro and those families have serious power.

Germany is in a similar relationship with the PIIGS as China is with the USA. If Germany kills the PIIGS, it kills its own banks that have invested heavily in PIIGS debt. It kills itself.

The ECB will ease. Germany will begrudgingly accept it.

The issue in Europe is one of current account imbalances. Addressing imbalances is the responsibility of both deficit and surplus nations which ultimately results in greater fiscal discipline amongst PIIGS (reduction of deficit) and greater foreign ownership amongst Germans (reduction of surplus). In the aftermath of the rebalancing, equilibrium will be maintained by continuing large differences between yields on sovereign debt within the eurozone. As I pointed out the other day, ECB easing actually forces German acquisition of PIIGS territory / assets, a land grab. Therefore, if anyone should be resisting easing it's the PIIGS rather than Germany.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 22:34 | 1895074 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Germany can walk. Why? Because at some point, it's deciding between hyperinflation and losing of sovergnty (staying) and being sovereign and having a depression.

Either way it's bad, but at least you keep your sovereignty.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 05:52 | 1897851 Mediocritas
Mediocritas's picture

How does Germany lose sovereignty by staying? As I see it, they become the UBER sovereign (everyone else ends up effectively ceding sovereignty to Germany).

In a fiscal union, Germany would be pulling all the strings.

As for hyperinflation, historical instances of hyperinflation go hand in hand with extreme political events. The trigger for hyperinflation is typically not sudden money printing (although it can be sometimes), it's loss of confidence in the foundation of a currency, which is usually caused by extreme and destabilizing political events.

This is particularly threatening for large trading nations, particularly the USA. For the US, it's compounded by the USD being the world's reserve currency meaning that most of the USDs in the world are not in America, they're eurodollars. If some extreme political event were to occur in the USA that completely destabilized the country (for example, a military coup), then eurodollar flight and associated heat-mapped short-selling would be the source of hyperinflation, all without one single extra dollar being printed. In other words, forget the Bernank, the USA has already printed all the money it needs to cause hyperinflation. Reserve currency status is a major liability.

So the threat of hyperinflation in Europe is not that Germany stays on the euro and faces ECB printing (this may be inflationary, but not HYPERinflationary). The threat of hyperinflation is much more present from Germany leaving the euro. Germany, being the dominant economy in Europe, would cause a dump of euros in favor of deutsche marks. Unless managed carefully, hyperinflation could result.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 21:11 | 1894927 philipat
philipat's picture

The Bundesbank can't allow the ECB to print unless the German Constitution is changed. Which 70%+ of the German people oppose. Check mate?

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 03:01 | 1895355 Uchtdorf
Uchtdorf's picture

Not checkmate; not even a stalemate. Why? Can you say: Never let a crisis go to waste. Forsooth, what's that flying in from the East? Methinks it is a flock of Black Swans!

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 21:53 | 1897157 philipat
philipat's picture

You miss the point. Unlike in the US, elected politicians and political parties are actually held to account and so do tend to HAVE to represent the wishes of "We the people". Germany would have to hold an election or referendum to revise its Constitution and the German people are against what they see as supporting southern profligacy. I wonder why?

So the ECB cannot print and there is no solution other than FULL political integration and loss of soverirgnty (With an implied ongoing transfer of revenuues from North to South which, perhaps not surprisingly, the taxpayers of Northern Europe will not support) OR some type of breakup of the existing Eurozone. I'm betting on the latter.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 17:47 | 1894560 covert
covert's picture

Germany, Austria and Switzerland should have been smart enough not to join.

http://expose2.wordpress.com

 

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 19:54 | 1894817 SirPlayomic
SirPlayomic's picture

Switzerland was smart enough as it didn't adopt the Euro or join the EU.

Greedion.com

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 20:01 | 1894833 sitenine
sitenine's picture

Yes, but they were stupid enough to peg their currency to the Euro.

Reference: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/currency-peg-causes-50-surge-swiss-nationa...

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 20:34 | 1894874 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

They can depeg any time they want.
When the euro crosses the event horizon into the hyperinflation black hole, CHF will jettison the euro.
Got CHF?

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 07:57 | 1895461 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

+1 I'm surprised - you seem to think straight from time to time

though I do have some skepsis about an "event horizon" thing

and it looks to me like the EUR is following the GBP and USD

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 14:36 | 1895981 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

For one, the return to the Gold Franc is expected THIS year.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/swiss-parliament-to-discuss-gold-franc-...

ZURICH (MarketWatch) — The Swiss Parliament is expected later this year to discuss the creation of a gold franc — a parallel currency to the official Swiss franc, with the fringe initiative likely triggering a broader debate about the role of the precious metal in the Alpine nation.

It would be much easier to have ONE franc, the Gold Franc.  But I can see a scenario where the AuCHF is introduced and circulating in parallel to today's franc. Those holding paper CHF will be allowed to convert to AuCHF during a -very- brief timeframe. When the SHTF, the Swiss might as well just allow the paper CHF to follow the rest of fantasy currencies down the black hole.

Remember the CHF used to be a gold franc not long ago, the value of the Swiss franc was pegged  to 0.290g fine gold after the Swiss franc came off the gold standard.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 20:45 | 1894894 sitenine
sitenine's picture

Got PM?

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 17:27 | 1894530 CTG_Sweden
CTG_Sweden's picture

 

 

 

Mediocritas:

 

"Germany can't walk. If it does, it kills off a big chunk of European exports. German manufacturers will resist any attempt to leave the euro and those families have serious power. [- - -]"

 

 

 

In the past, German export companies have been able to cope with a continuously appreciating D-mark. Why can´t they cope with that in the future as well? If the D-mark would rise too fast I guess that the Germans could print money as well, but less than the eurozone.

 

The reason why I doubt that Germany will leave the eurozone, even if I think that makes sense from a rational point of view, is that this would send a message to the European electorate that further integration in Europe is neither inevitable nor always good from an economic point of view. I think that the current political élite in Europe would regard that as a political disaster. I also can not see any reason why the political élite in Europe should have changed its mind on this subject recently. Can anyone tell me which reason that should be? The only explanation I can think of is that it actually is true that Merkel earlier this year was subject to an attempted assassination (a rigged helicopter accident) and that she blames some Western Intelligence for that and that she actually got some support from within her party for opposing political agreements that would mean too heavy liabilities for Germany or too much risk for hyperinflation. But I think that somebody else should already have said something if the reason for Merkel´s seemingly awkward attitude is defiance caused by the attempted assassination. I thought that the rumour about the rigged helicopter accident was rubbish, but perhaps I´m wrong?

 

Another interesting question is whether the EU will make payment in euro mandatory for oil in order to enable the ECB to print more money without causing substantial inflation. I think that the US should prefer an outcome of the eurozone crisis which does not imply mandatory payments in euro for oil imports since that would reduce the capacity of the world economy to absorb dollars which in turn might would force the US to print less dollars.

 

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 21:27 | 1894958 Mediocritas
Mediocritas's picture

Interesting question regarding euros for oil. If that happened it would undermine the almighty petrodollar quite substantially, the outcome for the USA would be highly inflationary. I believe that the days of the US dollar as world reserve currency are over, and that this would be a way to force the issue. I'm sure the IMF would love to step in with SDRs (as this was the whole point of the IMF and SDRs in the first place), but doing so is a fractal version of what is going on in Europe right now. America would have to cede some sovereignty to the IMF which means ceding to China and Europe. A very hard sell. These issues will be unavoidably faced down the road, for now there's the immediate issue of Europe.

Regarding the elites and their philosophy, I believe you are correct. Although I no longer have occasion to mingle with European top brass, in a former role I used to meet said people (mostly German as I lived in Germany at the time) under social circumstances. I asked the question "why doesn't Germany go it alone?" in various forms on various occasions and the response was overwhelmingly supported by a moral foundation. There is a firm and quite emotional belief that European integration is morally righteous. For Germany to abandon the euro means abandoning the moral project too, and that will go down like a lead balloon amongst the well-intentioned (but I believe misguided) intelligentsia.

Onto the DM. I assume the DM would be strong for a few reasons:

1: it doesn't make sense for Germany to leave the euro due to euro debasement....and then debase the DM.

2: the DM would become the safe haven currency of Europe and receive a constant bid.

3: German resistance of debasement, relative to citizens of PIIGS nations, would lead to constant relative DM strength.

DM strength will eat into German margins unless manufacturers are able to take advantage of cheaper labor outside of Germany, something the EU has already helped to facilitate. A problem is that this has already been largely done and has limited scope for further development, particularly in Eastern Europe where wages for the exact same job in the exact same company are 5-10 times less than in Germany. The ability of Germany to further exploit such nations and take the heat off a strong DM is limited, meaning pain for manufacturing exporters.

The primary problem though for the DM is not its strength but its very existence as Germany leaving the euro means weakening the EU project, resulting in inevitable protectionism springing up like a picket fence around Germany. The euro has been a massive benefit to Germany, for Germany to up and leave now, hanging onto the spoils of the euro over the past decade, would be a bitter pill to swallow for the rest of the eurozone, resulting in revenge.

I can't foresee any situation where Germany's access to European markets improves by leaving the euro. DM strength will be tolerable to a small extent as German corporations may be able to push the limits on labor market exploitation or find further efficiency somewhere, but it's easier to see the opposite happening. Having risen to a higher position on the back of the euro now versus the position before the euro, it's very hard to see how Germany could maintain this level. The DM (particularly a strong DM) would inevitably undermine the German economy from its current level.

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 17:31 | 1896458 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

Interesting question regarding euros for oil. If that happened it would undermine the almighty petrodollar quite substantially, the outcome for the USA would be highly inflationary.

Why would OPEC accept euro for oil if the result is that it undermines trillions in petrodollars already taken in not to mention future dollars?  Particularly when they also know that Europe will eventually either print till the presses smoke or simply default on all euro denominated debts?  If we posit that Europe will have to either print of defulat on euros and each nation return to original currencies this makes the euro look very unstable in ForEx eyes, I would surprised if even Iran will accept them for oil. 

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 05:38 | 1897832 Mediocritas
Mediocritas's picture

From a purely economic perspective (although as I'll expand on later, economics isn't the driver), OPEC will happily accept whatever currency matches the nationality of assets it wishes to invest in. A sudden undermining of the USD only hurts a nation like Saudi Arabia to the extent of its holdings of US cash and US bonds, only if it is stupid enough to sit on cash and bonds (both are highly liquid and should be converted to more inflation-resistant assets). To the extent that OPEC nations have invested in US real estate, stocks, etc, these investments will be more robust (as a store of wealth) in the face of US inflation.

The European Union is the biggest economy in the world offering just as much investment opportunity as the USA. As it stands, for OPEC to accept US (petro) dollars in exchange for oil, to then go and invest in the world's largest economy requires a currency exchange with the losses that entails. Same from the other side of the trade, for Europeans to purchase oil in USD again leaks due to exchange. Both parties benefit when doing trade with one another using euros instead of USD.

Economically, it makes sense for OPEC to trade oil in the currency of its trade partner, or to use SDRs, but the preference for USD does not have an economic justification, it has a geopolitical justification. The House of Saud cannot maintain power without a friendly US military and a good supply of US weapons. For the euro to make inroads to OPEC, the European military-industrial complex would have to ratchet up to match or exceed the level of the USA and be prepared to meddle in MENA politics just as much as the USA has done over the years. It's the same story for China.

The result would be a cold war between the USA and Europe. Such scenarios were formerly not on the radar, but if the European economy continues to tank badly, Europe might decide to erode its relationship with America in order to boost its own economy (and nothing boosts an economy more than improved access to energy).

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 08:42 | 1897947 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

Mediocritis:  "...but the preference for USD does not have an economic justification, it has a geopolitical justification."

 

I agree with most of your post but that part, and only half disagree with that in that the distinction is a fine line.  I do not know how much any country holds in US$ cash as opposed to liquidating it for SDR's or gold or whatever without going to look it up, but I do know the term petrodollar is a term used to mean any dollar outside of US jurisdiction.   And I still say that any government or power that looks at the world today will see a EU that might or might not be able to stick together and certainly the euro as a currency is doomed as it now is, if you are Saud or any other ruler are you going to pull away from the US and throw in with 27 nations of the EU that every day look less stable?  The US is still the largest customer for their products, and has troops on the ground in their region, but your points are very well appreciated and oh by the way, do I feel a draft?  It seems to me the first chills of that cold war have already started.  It seemed to me also that the US and EU did not work as well in concert through NATO as we used to when flying missions over Libya. 

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 21:18 | 1900943 Mediocritas
Mediocritas's picture

Yeah, it's a very fine line when the USA is involved, almost indistinguishable, US economics basically IS geopolitics as, I'm sure you appreciate, the US economy is so heavily dependent on foreign oil. The line is much less fine in Europe, which I put down to a much longer history of political intrigue and a fair chunk of the physical layout that was put in place long before cars were in the picture.

The term for referring to US dollars domiciled outside the USA is "eurodollar" (a US dollar in Japan is confusingly called a eurodollar. A Japanese yen in America is confusingly called a euroyen and a euro in America is even more confusingly called a euroeuro). Petrodollar is used to refer to a dollar earned from selling oil, petrodollars are typically eurodollars, but not all. There are actually two US dollar based fractional reserve systems in the world, the eurodollar reserve system is larger and less regulated than the US one and is both a blessing and a curse for the USA.

That's a minor quibble though, I take your point that, at this time, OPEC would be nuts to be pushing for euro trade. It made sense for the past decade and, if Europe stabilizes, it will make sense again, but yeah, not at this present time. I'm in the minority in that I think Europe will actually stabilize the euro with Fed assistance.

On the cold war, it's there alright with more participants this time around. I think we should call the first stages the "Cool War".

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 23:49 | 1895171 CTG_Sweden
CTG_Sweden's picture

 

Mediocritas:

 

"The euro has been a massive benefit to Germany, for Germany to up and leave now, hanging onto the spoils of the euro over the past decade, would be a bitter pill to swallow for the rest of the eurozone, resulting in revenge."

 

 

 

I don´t think that Germany has benefited substantially from the euro. Germany could do well with a continuously appreciating D-mark. If they want less appreciation, they can print money just like the eurozone, in case the other countries let them leave the eurozone (which I doubt). Furthermore, Germany could use their own printed D-marks for things that could benefit Germany more than printed euros for PIIGS-countries. For instance, they could lend money to domestic high-tech companies at a low interest rate.

 

I think that the leaders in France and Spain would rather take an 50 % GDP cut and a 3rd world living standard for the French and Spanish populations rather than sending a message to the European electorate that further integration in Europe is neither inevitable nor always good from an economic point of view. In the early 1990s, the Swedish political élite decided to peg the Swedish krona to the predecessor of the euro which was called Ecu. They defended the exchange rate with a 500 % interest rate. Unemployment and the government debt more than doubled. Then they said that we had to join the EU in order save the economy. And people bought it. There is almost no limit on how much you can fool people. Those who control the big media can always blame somebody else than the real perpetrator if something goes wrong.

 

I think that it would be better for the eurozone to print as much as Italy and Spain need for a while and buy their bonds in the primary market and see to that they get a near 0 % interest rate rather than forcing Germany to stay in the eurozone. But judging from the Swedish example I doubt that political élite in France and Spain would prefer printing if that would mean that they would let Germany off the hook and send the wrong message to the European electorate.

 

There is a widespread misconception among people that seemingly sober-minded mainstream politician prioritize economic growth and prosperity to everything else. The Swedish example above indicates that such mainstream politicians are willing to hurt their electorate from an economic point of view quite substantially for no other reason than long-term political power. And I don´t think people understand that. Therefore, I doubt that France and Spain would prefer printing if that means sending the wrong message to the European electorate.

 

Furthermore, I think that you have to keep in mind that membership in the EU and being a part of the eurozone are two different things. Countries like Britain and Sweden are EU members but not members of the eurozone. Nowadays, it is perfectly legal to leave the European Union. If Germany would leave the EU it is true that the country would be more vulnerable to protectionism from other countries. But if Germany would be allowed to leave the eurozone and still keep its EU-membership, it would be hard to punish Germany with tariffs and other protectionist means.

 

I think that Europe needs more pragmatic and less fanatic and/or corrupt politicians. I think that the current crisis primarily is the result of fanaticism and lack of loyalty to the electorate. There seems to be an easy solution to the problem: Let Germany leave the eurozone, print money and make payment in euros for oil imports mandatory for the entire EU during a transitional period. If the PIIGS countries agree to limit printing somewhat, I don´t think that should lead to a disaster for the US. Furthermore, I reckon that the US could force the eurozone to limit printing. 

 

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 05:36 | 1897848 Mediocritas
Mediocritas's picture

@CTG_Sweden,

That's an important point (one that I completely agree with) that the primary motivation behind grand actions in Europe is power and has been for 1000 years. Economics is simply one of many tools used in the battle for power. I have found this to be something that Americans don't fully comprehend (same goes for my home nation Australia), as it lacks the history of cloak-and-dagger politics which Europeans swim in every day.

I didn't know Sweden saw a 500% interest rate, that's shocking, and yes, completely predictable that it would be used in the "moral" drive for European unity from above to push Swedish people into a situation that may not really be in their best interests. On the plus side, at least Sweden didn't join the euro (although it was very close correct?).

I disagree that Germany has not benefited from the euro. Granted, primarily, the main benefit for Germany comes from the EU rather than the euro as such, due to the access it provided to foreign markets. Fringe nations were sold the lie: "you will gain access to core nation markets! Think how great that will be for sales!", conveniently ignoring the fact that in doing so, they opened themselves to competition and got smashed by better organized, better funded corporations. Without an "empathy" clause in the Lisbon Treaty, (something like Keynes' bancor to deal with current account divergence), it was inevitable that German corporations would dominate the landscape. Like letting a kid loose in a candy shop.

Where the euro comes in is that it has magnified the benefit of the EU to Germany by lubricating German business logistics / operations. Elimination of currency exchange commissions and elimination of local currency knowledge advantage most benefits those companies that are positioned to do the most international trade (overwhelmingly German). German corporations, boosted by access + euro have aggressively displaced local competition in foreign nations and protected that position via price gouging (which only they can afford), I see it first hand every time a Lidl pops up and eliminates multi-generational small family businesses, setting up a pipe back to Germany's current account surplus in the process.

An anecdotal example of Germany benefiting from the euro. My wife has a holiday house in the mountains on the border between Poland and Slovakia. Before the euro came along, local business in the area did well, particularly from tourists hiking in the summer. Then along came the euro, screwed everyone in the transition, made everything expensive (by local knowledge) and led to people naturally crossing into Poland (zloty) to go shopping. There are still loads of tourists, but the euro has decimated local businesses. Into the abyss of a collapsed local economy have arrived core eurozone foreigners, snapping up amazing land at distressed prices. The area might as well be annexed by Germany now, given how many DE plates are parked in drives. New hotels and restaurants popping up are foreign, and priced way out of reach of locals. A clear land grab for Germany, thanks to the euro. Once it had to be done with Panzers, now it's done by some arsehole in a suit in Brussels.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 16:38 | 1894475 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Printing is unacceptable and default is unacceptable. They will continue to come up with half baked plans that act like printing but aren't, that pretend to fix the problems but don't, until the system starts falling to pieces. That's really falling apart not the half stuff we're seeing now. Then they will grab for what they can at the time, it won't be planned before hand, it will be reactive. Hitler took advantage of a similar situation, I wonder if we'll be lucky (sarc/) like that again?

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 22:28 | 1897324 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

"When one walks through Athens about 20% to 25% of all business have shut down. There are empty shops left and right. If one goes out to nightclubs you notice that although people do go out they'll only buy a drink and slow sip it. Any business operating will tell you that even if they are profitable they've been massively hit by new taxes. Most business are owed massive amounts of money by customers. Crime has gone through the roof. Roberries, assaults, burglaries are up hundreds of percentages. In fact the only businesses reporting bumper profits in Greece are security companies. Crime is massively underreported in the statistics (who would've thought Greece would provide false statistics about its crime) but when watching the news or reading the paper the amount of circumstantial evidence of higher crime is overwhelming. Also stories from friends and family abound of victims of crime."

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 01:24 | 1897676 Milestones
Milestones's picture

Thanks for the hands on assessment.           Milestones

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 20:09 | 1894851 Roger Knights
Roger Knights's picture

I agree. They're boxed in, and they won't move until the walls start falling down.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 15:22 | 1894369 sitenine
sitenine's picture

Exactly right.  The ECB will print to save its existence, and Germany will suck it up.  The old adage of "lie in the bed you made" comes to mind.

It no longer really matters much anyway.  The only constructive objective at this point is to stave off collapse for as long as possible.  Nothing can stop stop the deleveraging that must occur in the end.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 16:37 | 1894474 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Yes they'' print, but they'll print when it's to late.
They'' only print AFTER the 2012 elections in june!
And a lot more shit will have hit the fan by than resulting in more printing.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 16:27 | 1894462 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

"[European Monetary Union is] a German racket designed to take over the whole of Europe ... [if you are prepared to give up Sovereignty to the EU] you might just as well give it to Adolf Hitler, frankly."

Nicholas Ridley (1929 - 1993) Secretary of State for Trade and Industry under Margaret Thatcher, taking a career-ending dive into the swivel-eyed tendency, for which he was forced to resign. From an interview in Spectator magazine, July 1990.

 

Seems like old man Ridley was right after all.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 21:09 | 1894926 Dingleberry
Dingleberry's picture

Ridley was right because, aside from maybe the Dutch and Swiss, the rest of Europe is second rate compared to Germany. Call it genetics. Call it work ethic. Call it whatever the fuck you want......the Germans truly are superior. In nearly every way. Culturally, technologically, manufacturing.....you name it.   Like it or not.   So if a nation joins them at the hip, they better be prepared to goose-step behind them.  Britain has a sordid history of getting Germany's neighbors to attack them or fuck with them in some way while they manipulate the rest of the world and leech and steal everything.  Think opium wars. Think US revolution.  FUCKING THINK!  Read William Engdahl. He explains it all brilliantly.  Those of you non-believers....keep sucking the City of London's hairy balls. You deserve it.  How I wish John Adams or Washington was still alive.

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 06:44 | 1895434 aleph0
aleph0's picture

LOL ... you have things upside down.

The German "industrial machine" ticks along so nicely because they have a population of obeyers , like : "heads down and get to work".

As Churchill was reputed to have said : "The Germans love a Plan, even if they have to follow it over a cliff" .... or words to that effect.

Whether it's the language that causes such inflexible thinking  , or the genes, I'll leave open this "chicken and egg" question.

& BTW, German humour is pretty pathetic IMO , however , there are a few exceptions like Volker Pispers  ( check Youtube ) - one of the few wide awake Germans IMO.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 23:52 | 1895175 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Your idiocy and ass kissing know no boundaries.
You are a sad infrahuman being.

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 07:52 | 1895460 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

so you are the only one here allowed to cry that Country A is fucking Country B?

you are hilarious, go drink more water in a case of mineral deficiency causing dehydration and needing medical help

don't worry, the blindness symptoms are only temporary

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 19:33 | 1894776 Mediocritas
Mediocritas's picture

I don't think it's a German racket, I think it's an elite racket and membership in that club is multi-national. Otherwise yes, I agree, the aim is and always was to build a United States of Europe with said elite in control because "all the little people are far too consumed by emotions to stop hating each other and going to war due to cultural differences that we, the enlightened elite, have managed to overcome! We will make them get along to maximize our profits!"

At face value, the philosophy of a unified Europe might seem nice. In reality, it's nothing more than thinly disguised fascism, designed to sterilize the soul of Europe, eliminate all the differences that make Europe INTERESTING and replace it all with a bland, English-speaking, hollow, consumerism. Next step, unified Europe + USA on the way to a single planetary parliament. China would have to go through a violent revolution along the way of course.

Apparently the elites haven't been studying genetics. Lack of diversity tends to result in extinction when a Black Swan appears.

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 10:05 | 1895534 Reptil
Reptil's picture

100% fucking right you are.

incredible POS of propaganda here:

http://fd.nl/economie-politiek/130111-1111/stap-voor-stap-op-weg-naar-echte-eenwording

It says that we (dutch) only have to pay 5% on a cup of coffee to bail out some greek, in contribution to some stabillity fund, but that if the Euro were to dissolve we would lose 25% of our wealth. It also quotes the ABN-Amro CEO that I'd take roughtly 12 months for the politicians to be moldy enough to accept the centrally guided transfer union, and give up on their souvereignity.

Guided by WHOM??

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 19:05 | 1894685 falak pema
falak pema's picture

well the City and UK Cameron, like in Brown, Blair and Major days, are/were US poodles, during PAX americana supremacy; Mrs Thatcher of course co-engineered Reaganomics, its very foundation, since Watergate-Vietnam-Carter-Iran regression/collapse days.

So you take your picks and suck up to the system that suits your lolly pop-bubble gum urge. I don't think in the current situation, where Germany has no nuclear weapon and France and UK do, the Hitler menace is the true mantra. Merkel could be Bismarck's girl in the making, but no Hitler maidchen. Lets see who collapses whom and where the cookie crumbles. In my book the US still holds the aces as its money is currency back up; unless China pulls the plug...and that...would start a HOT war, not a cold one.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!