The Endgame: Japan Inc. Seeks Salvation Overseas

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Wolf Richter   www.testosteronepit.com

Japanese companies spent $70 billion on acquisitions overseas in 2011—a record. Healthcare was the largest sector, $20.6 billion. Armed with a ferociously strong yen, they’re trying to escape the pressures at home. After the Fukushima disaster, one nuclear power plant after another has been taken off line for maintenance. And they stay off line. Now, only four of the 54 are still operating. Fossil fuel plants cannot keep up with demand during peak periods, and electricity rationing—a Third-World phenomenon—has become part of corporate life. Companies also face a stagnant economy and a dwindling working-age population.

And so they seek their fortunes overseas. For example, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group and Sumitomo Corp. are acquiring the aircraft leasing business of bailed-out Royal Bank of Scotland for $7.3 billion. But even smaller companies, including many that had not ventured abroad before, are jumping into the fray. For example, Takara Tomy Group acquired US toymaker RC2, and Toyo Seikan bought US based Stolle Machinery.

In addition, Japanese multinationals are expanding their existing production capacity overseas. On the forefront are the automakers. Mired in stagnation, high costs, and energy challenges at home, they’re now shifting production to plants overseas. Most recently, it was Honda and Nissan with investments in China, Mexico, and, yes, the US to produce cars for local and export markets. And one of them is outright exciting. Read.... Manufacturing Supercars in America.

Electronics makers are also struggling in Japan. Last year was particularly rough: the March 11 earthquake and tsunami, Thailand's historic floods that shut down whole segments of the components industry, the strong yen, a hesitating global economy, and shrinking consumer demand at home. And then, in the fourth quarter, TV sales cratered.

Japanese TV makers, known for innovative products and advanced technologies, got clobbered by competitors from Korea and other Asian countries. Sharp Corp. forecast a loss of ¥290 billion for its current fiscal year. Unit sales skidded 38%. It will shift production from TVs to small and midsize LCD panels for smartphones and tablets. Panasonic sang a similar song last Friday when it tried to explain its losses in its TV and semiconductor businesses. It had already announced in October that it would stop production at two of its plants in Japan. Sony, after an eight-year losing spree in its TV business, remains focused on it, incoming CEO Kazuo Hirai announced on Thursday. And he'd miraculously turn it around through unspecified cost cutting measures.

But there are consequences. Shifting investment and production to locations overseas contributed to the first annual trade deficit in more than 30 years—just when Japan can least afford it: national debt will surpass one quadrillion yen by March 2013, the end of the next fiscal year, the Ministry of Finance announced in January. About $14 trillion. A breathtaking 240% of GDP. By comparison, Greece’s debt is a paltry 160% of GDP.

The forecast is based on the budget that the cabinet approved on Christmas Eve when it hoped that no one would pay attention, apparently. After excluding two acknowledged accounting shenanigans, the deficit jumps to a horrid ¥54.4 trillion. The government will have to borrow 56.2% of every yen it spends in 2012, a record even for Japan. But the government has an ingenious solution: a miracle. For more on that vertigo-inducing debacle, read... The Endgame: Japan Makes A Move.

The other solution is a consumption tax hike from the current 5% to 8% by April 2014 and to 10% by October 2015. To make it more palatable, government officials have gone on roadshows. The revenues would be used to stabilize the tottering social security system and reinforce the welfare system, they claimed—rather than for corporate subsidies or for the bailout of TEPCO, owner of the Fukushima nuke. But sales taxes hit low-income workers the hardest. And according to recent polls, 79.5% of the Japanese are opposed to them.

Once it starts, it’s never enough. On Saturday, Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda said that the consumption tax could be raised even beyond the 10% currently proposed. So the trend is clear.

Meanwhile, life goes on in its own manner. A convoy of 20 supercars was speeding down the Chugoku Expressway, entered a left-hand bend at 90–100 mph, though the posted speed limit was 50 mph. The highway was wet. And the rest was very expensive.... Superlative Supercar Pileup (incl. video).