Euro solution reached...Oh wait a sec we gotta vote on it! Hold tight world!

Pivotfarm's picture


Today’s Data & journal links

Data sheets describing major market metrics, news and a journaling area for trading records in the centre of the pdf.

eurusd | gbpusd | usdjpy | s&p500 | nasdaq | dow jones | goldcrude oil

News and Views in brief


Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou said a referendum on Europe’s rescue package will confirm the nation’s membership of the euro as he stuck to plans to hold the vote amid signs his government may collapse.

“The referendum will be a clear mandate and strong message within and outside Greece on our European course and our participation in the euro,” Papandreou told his ministers in Athens early today, according to an e-mailed transcript. It will “ensure this course in the most decisive way.” The Cabinet voted unanimously to endorse the plan.

Papandreou will fly to France today to face European leaders surprised by his decision to put the bailout plan to a national vote and call a confidence vote in parliament. His grip on power weakened after a lawmaker from his socialist Pasok party defected, leaving him with 152 deputies in the 300-seat chamber, while another, Vasso Papandreou, called for the formation of a national unity government.

German unemployment unexpectedly rose for the first time in more than two years in October and manufacturing contracted as pessimism mounted among businesses in Europe’s largest economy.

The number of people out of work rose a seasonally adjusted 10,000 to 2.94 million, the Nuremberg-based Federal Labor Agency said today. Economists forecast a decline of 10,000, the median of 31 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey showed. The adjusted jobless rate rose to 7 percent from 6.9 percent. A separate report showed factory output dropped.

Federal Reserve officials are probably engineering a third round of large-scale asset purchases, while they are unlikely to announce a decision today, according to economists in a Bloomberg News survey.

Sixty-nine percent of those surveyed say Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will embark on a third round of quantitative easing, or QE3, with a plurality of 36 percent predicting the move in the first quarter of next year, according to the poll of 42 economists from Oct. 26-31.

“We are becoming increasingly persuaded that QE3 is coming, this time focused on purchases of mortgage-backed securities,” said Dana Saporta, U.S. economist at Credit Suisse in New York. “The best guess is at this meeting they’ll try to build some consensus around the idea and lay the groundwork for eventual purchases.”


European stocks declined, erasing earlier gains, as the euro-area rescue fund was said to delay a planned 3 billion-euro ($4.1 billion) bond sale. Asian shares fell while U.S. index futures fluctuated.

Lloyds Banking Group Plc (LLOY) slid 5 percent as Chief Executive Officer Antonio Horta-Osorio took leave of absence from his duties following medical advice. Logica Plc (LOG) sank 7.9 percent as the Anglo-Dutch computer services provider posted third-quarter sales that missed analysts’ estimates.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index declined 0.3 percent to 234.28 at 10:27 a.m. in London, having earlier climbed 1.2 percent. The gauge has retreated 6.1 percent over the past four days as Greece called a referendum on its latest bailout package, spurring concern that the country may default.

U.S. stock-index futures pared gains, following the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index biggest two-day slump in a month, as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s latest policy statement.

Futures on the S&P 500 expiring in December advanced 0.2 percent to 1,226.5 at 7:07 a.m. in New York after earlier climbing as much as 1.1 percent. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures expiring the same month gained 8 points, or 0.1 percent, to 11,690.

Thirty one S&P 500 companies are due to report results today, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Seventy four percent of companies that have reported results since Oct. 11 have topped analysts’ estimates for per-share profit, data compiled by Bloomberg show.


The dollar declined against most major peers on speculation reports this week pointing to a faltering U.S. economy will spur the central bank to consider more asset purchases, or quantitative easing, to support growth.

The dollar slid versus the euro before Federal Reserve policy makers end a two-day meeting today. The euro strengthened after Greece’s Cabinet backed Prime Minister George Papandreou’s plan to put a bailout package to a referendum and before the region’s leaders meet to stem the debt crisis. It pared gains after the European Financial Stability Facility was said to postpone a bond sale.

“The dollar is softening into the meeting on talk of QE,” said Jane Foley, a senior currency strategist at Rabobank International in London. “I think that may be premature. The Fed’s tone will be very cautious. We’ve had a glimmer of hope or optimism on the Greek situation,” which supports the euro.

Asian currencies dropped, led by Indonesia’s rupiah and South Korea’s won, on concern Greece’s planned referendum on the European Union rescue plan will worsen the debt crisis and cut appetite for emerging-market assets.

The rupiah slipped for a third day and Korea’s currency lost the most in two weeks as the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index of regional shares hit the lowest level since Oct. 24. The Greek vote, if rejected, could jeopardize the next installment of 8 billion euros ($11 billion) of emergency aid funds from the EU and International Monetary Fund later this month. A Chinese manufacturing purchasing managers’ index fell to a 32-month low, data showed yesterday.


The most accurate forecasters say gold will rebound from its biggest monthly plunge since 2008 and reach a record by March because economic growth is stagnating and Europe’s debt crisis is unresolved.

Futures traded in New York may rise 12 percent to $1,950 an ounce by the end of the first quarter, according to the median of estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The predictions are from eight of the top 10 analysts tracked by Bloomberg over the past eight quarters. Two declined to give forecasts.

Holdings in exchange-traded products backed by bullion rose the most in three months in October, and the most-widely held option gives owners the right to buy gold at $2,000 by Nov. 22. Demand for the metal accelerated since May as slowing growth and mounting concern that European leaders will fail to contain the region’s debt crisis caused $7.5 trillion to be erased from the value of global equities.

Oil rose in New York for the first time in four days on speculation European leaders will push Greece to accept their rescue plan, reducing the chances the region’s debt crisis will worsen and curb economic growth.

Futures rose as much as 1.1 percent, reversing a decline of 1.3 percent, as European leaders prepared to tell Greece there is no alternative to budget cuts in their bailout plan. Gasoline and distillate-fuel stockpiles in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer, probably fell for a fifth week, according to a Bloomberg News survey before an Energy Department report today. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. recommended investors buy long-dated crude futures in New York and London.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Kokulakai's picture


Aid to Greece frozen?

DTCC 1999's picture

You people sound like morons.

A default is supposed to look like this.

It's a default on the euro.

A 6E trader dude whose self run day trading company often makes or loses 6 dig a week says a euro bank holiday on wednesday.

apberusdisvet's picture


Anything sourced from Bloomberg lately is becoming increasingingly irrelevant; the mouthpiece of the financial elites hit a new low  with a total repudiation of any possible Corzine fraud or criminality before any legitimate audit.

searcher68's picture

Through history, democracy has always been the downfall of republics. Way to go G-Pip... you're hastening the end and we appreciate you for it.

Rynak's picture

Yeah, isn't it funny how since the referendum thing appeared in the news, out of nowhere we have a dozen new and "known" people telling us, that letting people decide about their nation is evil?

GFY spoof.

metastar's picture

" QE3 is coming, this time focused on purchases of mortgage-backed securities"

So the FED (which is actually the banks) print money to buy assets from the banks (i.e. themselves) at inflated prices. In short, the banks are printing money which they keep themselves.

Occupy the World NOW! It is absolutely outrageous that this can be allowed to happen in a "free" country.

Kayman's picture

Printing money is theft, through inflation.  Why would these criminals stop stealing ?

xcehn's picture

Message to markets and eurocrats:  Referendum will be RIGGED to ensure the bankster result.  The foolish Greek people are just being played again!

CompassionateFascist's picture

Difficult to rig, given current riots. More likely an outright military coup, sponsored by NATO/banksters. Wave of the future: almost everywhere.

Sudden Debt's picture



It's freaking scary how most Europeans still downplay this event as just someting non important, everything will turn out oké from itself.

It's like nothing can go wrong in this world!

If I talk about this, mostly everybody smiles and says "it won't be as bad as you think".



theMAXILOPEZpsycho's picture

I have to agree. I'm an englishman living in france with freinds all over europe. I was always in the arn't americans fat and stupid crowed and europeans whilst not perfect very obviously over greater mental capacity and attractiveness...HOWEVER! People are just drifting on la di daarr!! The politicos will sort it out, being humugously in debt is just how nations operate yadayada, we need to have greater regualtions on th financial industry but the banks must always be saved by taxpayers... I'm having to take a look at my postion; now I kind of like old school constitutional americans, gun toting, don't trust no one, gold hording, leftist hating types...

at least in germany and eastern europe I think people know the score a bit more...

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Sudden, theMAX,

It is estimated that only 1% - 3% of Americans (I am an American) own ANY non-jewelry gold.  3% is likely too high.

I would guess that Americans and Europeans are about equal in financial ignorance.  Europe's big problem vis a vis USA is that there are many more languages (and so, more agendas) than what we have here.  Also, while some of our immigrants join gangs like MS-13 (very bad), Europe's immigrants are Muslim.  We had problems (as tourists) with Muslims in Europe...

One gun toting, gold hoarding, don't trust no one American's opinion!

theMAXILOPEZpsycho's picture

yes I don't doubt you for a second; however, the other scourge of europe is this liberalism - shouting and stamping of feet shouting "you can't just leave them, you have to help everyone!"...and no one, I mean no one, thinks where the money comes from "oh well the rich have plenty, lets just redistribute it.."

I don't doubt most americans are egg heads; I'm just growing envious of the tradition that some segments of your society has towards self-sustainability...

on another note, I'm willing to bet a higher percentage of yanks own gold and silver than europeans...especially if you take away germany...

grunk's picture

Democracy? We don't need no stinkin' democracy!

Somebody fuel up the attack helicopters and armed drones so we can liberate Greece from this crazy dictator.

xcehn's picture

Tell 'em to liberate the rest of the world too.

silverserfer's picture

I'll liberate some Libertads from mexico! If that will help.

disabledvet's picture

So apparently rather than "The Desk" this time it's "The Chez Lounge"...along with someone feeding the Chairman grapes and a some other person "fanning him."