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European Charts-Dead Cat Bounce
By thetrader.se
All European Markets rebounding today, on relatively low volume. The bounce could continue, and the squeeze we wrote of yesterday, risks killing “fundamental” shorts (short term only) as we melt up on very light volume. Below some European Index Charts. All in all we see the bounce as a dead cat bounce.
For the Fundamentally interested on the Eurozone situation, JPM has a great LEGO research out explaining the situation from a 9 years old perspective.
Dax has been the dog, and we expect the rebound to continue short term. Just recently today we have seen the first intraday outperformance vs STOXX in several days.
STOXX 50 looks simliar to DAX. Expect a further move up, and then a revisit of the lows. Note how close the STOXX 50 is to it’s 2009 rock bottom levels. The ones who bought the bottom are up some 30 % in two years. Worth the risk?
….and the real Dogs; Italy, Spain and Greece.
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The bottom line on Europe is there is no "anti-disintegration entity." You panic to Switzerland "and then it's over." Even Bloomberg is starting to put the kabash on reporting the insanity--it has the ability to wipe a big chunk of NY off the map once it hits here. Of course in the US we have things like the Pentagon, Health and Human Services, the Deparmtnent of Homeland Security, etc...., etc...And that's just the Federal stuff. (Did I mention the FCC? Yeah, the 'ones who can pull your license to broadcast?) Financially speaking there is no SEC, there is no FDIC, no TARP and no Dodd/Frank. Not having this might sound great but the fact of the matter is the banks in Europe are huge while their economies are relatively small. In other words any bank failure will start toppling entire nations. And the euro bailout amounts have been laughably small for the task. Get out and get out now. Period. "It could happen tommorow" as the Weather Channel says.
Yeah same pattern, these are short term rallies on low volume meltups. I am not even thinking of long positions at all...so it's buying on peaks via mini futures. All indxes are now-stuck in narrow trading ranges till they trend lower into a newer trading range. Obama won't do squat to rally markets, it's all the Fed and the ECB. Both CB's are now potential showing problems with unrealized loses esp the ECB which would be going into hyper space. If the EURO collapses on a German dissent. Major sell off will take place, one could call the doomsday trade. But, it's a China bubble mania that will send the global economy into the dark-age. If traders were shorting (billion +) the China bubble via US markets on 'fraud caps'. Can you image what will happen when China's 'corrupt money' system collapses? Jeez, that whole economy will implode.
There you go. F*cked from all angles. Still ya gotta eat, so you can trade this chaos.
That last chart of Greece looks really bad. By really bad, I mean like something you would see at an exorcism in a whore house. Puke and cursing all the way down.
Death spasms
shorted BAC at 3:59:30pm
Pretty gutsy. I smell a breakout, led by financials.
Good Luck.
I am seeing some inverse head and shoulders developing in some ETFs which has me concerned about the short term validity of my bearishness. TNX, TYX, and most Euro indexes aren't confirming any sort of positive equity outlook. I'm not sure what I fear more a inverse head and shourlders bull trap or missing out on some huge liquidity driven rally. I see alot of talk downplaying equities here but a rally is a rally. Like it or not the dollar is still tender so if I can get more of them I see no problem with that.
Hope you're right. I bought the Nov '11 $6.00 Put for $0.48 just before that....