This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

The Fed Disappointed... The Great Collapse is Here

Phoenix Capital Research's picture




 

I’ve been warning for weeks now that the Fed would disappoint with its September meeting. And boy did it.

 

As I forecast, the Fed didn’t announce QE 3. In fact, it didn’t announce any new policy of note. Instead it is simply reshuffling its holdings to focus more on the long end of the bond markets.

 

On top of this, the Fed announced it will only be moving roughly $400 billion of its portfolio around. This is the smallest major intervention the Fed has announced since it began implementing QE in 2009 (QE 1 was $1.25 trillion while QE 2 was $600 billion). Indeed, this move is on par with the Fed’s implementation of QE lite which to date has been about $300 billion give or take in scope.

 

Even more striking, while announcing this disappointing move, the Fed downgraded its view of the economy stating, “there are significant downside risks to the economic outlook.”

 

Previously, any admission of economic deterioration from the Fed resulted in the US Dollar selling off sharply as traders expected additional easing/ printing. This time around, the market senses that the Fed has disappointed and that the Fed’s move is largely symbolic more than anything else.

 

The end result of this: the market is Crashing just as I warned. The S&P 500 has gone from 1,200+ to 1,136, a 6% drop, in the overnight session.

 

 

We’re just getting started here. Today we got a confirmed SELL on my proprietary Crash indicator. This is the SAME indicator that registered before the 1987 Crash, the Tech Crash, and the 2008 collapse.

 

It's just triggered again... which means that today's sell off is JUST the beginning of what's coming. Indeed, I fully believe that the Great Collapse, the time when the Fed completely loses control of the markets, has arrived. We're going to be seeing Market Crashes, Bank holidays, riots, food shortages, and more in the coming months.

 

If you have yet to prepare yourself for what’s coming, my Surviving a Crisis Four Times Worse Than 2008 report can show you how to turn the unfolding disaster into a time of gains and profits for any investor.

 

Within its nine pages I explain precisely how the Second Round of the Crisis will unfold, where it will hit hardest, and the best means of profiting from it (the very investments my clients used to make triple digit returns in 2008).

 

Best of all, this report is 100% FREE. To pick up your copy today simply go to: http://www.gainspainscapital.com and click on the OUR FREE REPORTS tab.

 

Good Investing!

 

Graham Summers

 

PS. We also feature four other reports ALL devoted to helping you protect yourself, your portfolio, and your loved ones from the Second Round of the Great Crisis. Whether it’s my proprietary Crash Indicator which has caught every crash in the last 25 years or the best most profitable strategy for individual investors looking to profit from the upcoming US Debt Default, my reports covers it.

 

And ALL of this is available for FREE under the OUR FREE REPORTS tab at: http://www.gainspainscapital.com.

 

 

 

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Thu, 09/22/2011 - 12:09 | 1697389 spartan117
spartan117's picture

Graham, gotta give you thumbs up on a good call.  Might not agree with you all the time, but at least you stick your neck out with your calls.  Got my popcorn ready for the riots.

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 00:33 | 1699195 Nobody special
Nobody special's picture

Bah, he's dead wrong.  This is a HUGE QE if you critically examine the strategy behind it.  This will dwarf anything seen to date.

The US will purchase old long-term treasuries to sell short term new ones.  When each of these new treasuries expires, it is a liquidity injection.  So the fed has a $400B fund by which to exchange long term debt for short term monetary injections.  I think the bigger worry here is the amount of uncontrolled capital this will release into the markets.  How much long term debt can be converted to short using $400B and based on expiry, when it will this new cash hit the market?

 

 

 

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 11:43 | 1697237 calgal
calgal's picture

Hey u whiners

Just leave graham summers alone!

(said in my best tranny mascara running down my face voice)

Seriously, thank u graham and bonzai, all the contibutors and especially comments that make this The Best Site on The Web of Lies

Thank u and hav a nice day

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 12:05 | 1697373 Transformer
Transformer's picture

A lot of folks don't like this guy here.  I've been reading him for a while and just seeing how his predictions work out.  I gotta tell you, he's been really accurate, a lot more so than some other highly thought of pundits.  He sure has been getting the Fed stuff right, for quite a while.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 11:26 | 1697135 Fix It Again Timmy
Fix It Again Timmy's picture

This could be "screen doors on submarines" time...

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 11:19 | 1697096 mikem54321
mikem54321's picture

Again?! Two years of screaming it's the END of the WORLD NOW (weekly)! BUY MY NEWSLETTER!...Good Investing!... Is not enough? ZH is giving this shill too much time. Ugh.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 11:02 | 1697001 augmister
augmister's picture

Ah, PM's going on sale.  Finally!   We're on the road to collapse and it will be fun to see more of the sheeple "getting with the program."  Get ready for the BIG suck!   Everyone for HIS-SELF!

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 10:40 | 1696897 Joe Shmoe
Joe Shmoe's picture


sorry for the double post.  

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 10:37 | 1696890 Joe Shmoe
Joe Shmoe's picture

ZH often seems like a congregation of the converted.  Anyone who disagrees or questions the market-crash-dollar-is-dead-gold-to-5000 orthodoxy is blasted on this site.  The comments are often predictable.  Of course, there are some very insightful points made, but the overwhelming herd of bears, regurgitating their fiat collapse dogma seems shallow and lazy.  When I see people predict with certainty exactly how the collapse is going to happen, and no one challenges them (or if they do, they are shouted down by the faithful) I get very suspicious.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 11:36 | 1697171 Elmer Fudd
Elmer Fudd's picture

Hugh Hendry said to this effect, "we all know the final chapter, but there's many twists (!) and turns before we get there. 

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 11:33 | 1697165 fonestar
fonestar's picture

Well alot of us here are not economists or even investors in the traditional sense.  But what is clear to most of us left with the majority of our five senses is that we have been lied to and scammed by this system.  It's what brought me here, not to find out that this system is doomed but to watch the lesser explosions occur as this building is brought down.  I see nothing wrong with that fact.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 10:59 | 1696988 g speed
g speed's picture

ok time table-- slow down (not collapse) is in play--proof=lower highs and lower lows on world indexes.

proof= lower dollar value of all (read all) convertable or liquid assets--(glory-osky-zero  must mean lower demand?) Yes crickit-and there is a dearth of dollars in the world.  Many more zeros will evaporate today and in the near future. Possibly trillions on the equity markets alone.

proof=velocity of money is decreasing--stagnant money means stagnant business means less goods exchanged means less stuff you can find easily-- scarsity of porducts and services--happening as I speak-

I think what your looking for, Joe, is "when is the bottom??"--that my friend is a hindsight issue and can not be predicted-proof = MSM diatribe on "everything is uppy allready and BTD advice for the last 5 yrs.

Thank you -over and out

 

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 10:15 | 1696793 Bastiat009
Bastiat009's picture

I can't imagine Americans getting off the sofa during NFL season to stand up for anything. 

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 10:13 | 1696788 hivekiller
hivekiller's picture

You've got to love this guy.

"I fully believe that the Great Collapse, the time when the Fed completely loses control of the markets, has arrived. We're going to be seeing Market Crashes, Bank holidays, riots, food shortages, and more in the coming months."  Have a nice day :)

 

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 10:44 | 1696921 Bearster
Bearster's picture

You forgot the best part, hivekiller.  Get my 9-page book and I will tell you how to profit!

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 10:55 | 1696975 J 457
J 457's picture

Let me guess, 3x inverse ETF's, short dollar, and lots of gold and ammo.  Its the same recipe, with a different author.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 10:09 | 1696768 Simulacra10
Simulacra10's picture

Every time I read one of these, no matter how much I may agree with it, I can't help feeling like Ralphie from "A Christmas Story" when he get's his secret decoder ring. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zdA__2tKoIU

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 10:00 | 1696732 walküre
walküre's picture

Buy when there is blood in the streets.

Someone made that argument. There will be a bounce. At some point. If you're good at it, you can probably trade it and make money.

But.. What would the catalyst have to be for the bounce other than the markets being oversold at some point? Imho we are far away from that point.

This is not a scare. This is a correction. This is like a balloon that's loosing air faster and faster and nobody making any attempts to reinflate the balloon, not even a promise to go down to the garage and look for a pump.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 09:38 | 1696642 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

S&P = 800 if Ben doesn't intervene....maybe lower.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 11:01 | 1696994 J 457
J 457's picture

Maybe not quite 800, but certainly could hit 920-950 in Oct.

Then its time to buy buy buy. 

1) If there is really a global economic failure, all your USD will be worthless. You might as well invest them when the time is right.

2) Chances are we'll pull through this, with a little austarity and help from FED.  If not we're all screwed anyway.

Obama won't sit on his hands until 2012.  Some type of additional support will happen before then.

 

 

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 09:52 | 1696700 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Time to harvest the calm-as-Hindu-cow Bulls, prime steaks as far as the eye can see!

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 10:05 | 1696753 walküre
walküre's picture

Not sure how calm they are. Traffic on this site today seems normal. Earlier this year we had massive traffic and downtime to contend with. I guess the bulls are busy chasing just any bid to offload their portfolios.

Selling into strength was so August 2011. Now it's selling to whomever is willing to buy and run for the exits

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 10:26 | 1696840 CH1
CH1's picture

Earlier this year we had massive traffic and downtime to contend with.

Ummmm... I think Tyler upgraded the servers. :)

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 09:34 | 1696622 PAPA ROACH
PAPA ROACH's picture

How's all that gold treating you all now bitchez?

 

LMFAO!!!!!!!!!!!!

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 11:17 | 1697086 Libertarian777
Libertarian777's picture

aah shit. Thanks for pointing that out.

Golds treating me to 22% YTD right now. Damnit, I knew it was a terrible investment. Should have bought NFLX, RIMM, BRK/A and BAC, they treat me so much better.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 10:46 | 1696927 I Got Worms
I Got Worms's picture

Roach - thanks for the heads up, broheim! I panicked and ran to check on my stash, counted it up, and it all seems to be accounted for and intact. You can never be too sure though.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 09:53 | 1696707 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Great, considering I bought most of mine at $400 avg and also thought $1,900 was a bit high anyway. Those who think they can buy gold and 'get rich quick' have it all wrong, you better just sit on it for a long long time.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 10:19 | 1696810 Dingleberry
Dingleberry's picture

agreed sheepdog. To the idiots, most gold bugs were buying when the shit was under 800.....and silver under 13. Gold bugs aren't osing sleep like fucks long in the market are, I can tell you that.   Call me when gold is under a thousand. You perma-bulls can call me when you need something to eat after your fucking stocks have been naked shorted to death.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 10:50 | 1696946 RSloane
RSloane's picture

Exactly.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 12:26 | 1697483 Spigot
Spigot's picture

bought my hoard at 341/6 respectively...yeah, I'm hurtin' (not)

Here is my bold prediction:

Gold (POG) and Equities (DOW) at this point will cross at 1:1 or parity. DOW will drop and POG will rise until they meet in the middle, my guess being $5,000.

It was either that or POG and DOW would moon shot together, where POG would overtake its rising price.

I guess we now know (at least for the mid term) they have chosen the crash and burn method, not the hyper inflation method.

 

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 10:07 | 1696761 Bastiat009
Bastiat009's picture

$1900 was not too high. I liked it and I miss it.

Gold, once again, goes down with everything else when times get rough. Gold is like having a lifeboat that is tied to the main vessel. You can jump in it when your ship sinks, but you will sink too.

I am not saying it makes sense. I am not saying I like it. I am just saying what is happening in the real world.

 

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 10:28 | 1696844 CH1
CH1's picture

Just hold your metal and let the naysayers babel.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 09:26 | 1696589 g speed
g speed's picture

the Fed action(inaction) is the rope a dope move in the three way between the USD, the EURO and the Yuan--  The main players are using the debt card (queen of spades) that the opposing player has in its hand. The Chinese must use USD to support their failing economy--(read no exports in a merchantile nation) and the Germans must use USD to support the EU ponzi ( read give the import capacity back to the importing part of the EU to support Germany's failing economy (read no exports for a merchantile nation) Its a all or nothing situation for the big three-- trump time-- Its going to be fun to watch.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 09:22 | 1696564 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Well the riots have already started in Wall Street.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 09:22 | 1696562 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Its so funny, everyone always whines 'This guy want to take all my money!'...no ones making you read anything, or buy anything. I think youre just mad because you got burned buying the 'Bernank print' yesterday, not the Summers newsprint. This guy has done you no wrong, go be mad at Bernank or Geithner or someone like that....grow up.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 09:26 | 1696576 eisley79
eisley79's picture

i agree, but the guy is a schill. "MY MY MY, I,I,I," blah blah blah.

The great collapse as he calls it is still far off.  We will have another strong leg down, actual QE3, another dead cat bounce, the end of the Euro, and then a failed attempt at QE4 (each one having less affect). 

Then the full on Great Depression two, new global monetary system.

 

The best solution for this author to survive the coming turmoil, is for the people that dont whine, to send him there money :)

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 09:30 | 1696604 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Oh well Im not counting on all that myself, theyre still due for 1 more re-pump of everything? '1 more ride around the circus, THEN its Greatest Depression'...for what? The rest of the western world is collapsed, we have no options. Bernank did not print trillions yesterday because he CANT now, or later... its the end of the road, we ARE IN the Greatest Depression right now. 

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 09:12 | 1696522 JohnFrodo
Thu, 09/22/2011 - 11:11 | 1697042 Hagbard Celine
Hagbard Celine's picture

metaphor soup

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 09:11 | 1696516 s2man
s2man's picture

lots of conjecture.  headlines about nothing.  we haven't had a good crisis in weeks.  I'm getting bored.  would someone please tip over that first domino?

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 09:31 | 1696611 Setarcos
Setarcos's picture

Tend to agree.

There is nothing to really report - except for trivia, which keeps both the MSM and "alternative media" employed until the shit really hits the fan.

It all reminds me of the "phony war" from about 1938 into 1940, when all hell broke loose in Europe.

Meanwhile all all media can do is keep on keeping their own enterprizes going, whether by adervertizing or donations.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 08:59 | 1696459 Setarcos
Setarcos's picture

Whilst I am on a roll of "feel good" music from Roy Orbison ... "You Got It".

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yzGdqRzbf7o&feature=fvwp&NR=1

Even this has the twist of the Bernank and Washington giving the "too big to fail" banks anything they want.  Oh dear!

Next I'll be posting Chubby Checker's "Let's Twist Again" ... but I will actually refrain.

Please excuse my free association of contrasting the better side of human nature with the worst ... I think that anyone not blinded by cognitive dissonance will understand.

What attracted me to ZH was/is the occasional essay into "depth psychology" (let's say) ... far more than explication of the arcane dealings of financialism, e.g. sundry derivatives and tradings in "futures" which no one knows the future of.

Economists are no different from casters of bones and dealers of Tarot cards ... they all make excuses for having got things wrong, but promise that more of the same will fix everything.

I await being given negatives for my comments.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 09:09 | 1696507 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

Summers gives the same rant, each day, every day. He just changes a few words and punches the "submit" button.

 

Tyler, surely you can come up with a newer, fresher face than this guy.

 

He's not controversial, he's not insightful

 

He's B O R I N G.

 

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 09:18 | 1696548 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well, so are you.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 08:54 | 1696440 Bob the Horse
Bob the Horse's picture

This morning the sun rose, PRECISELY as I forecast the previous day.  I have been saying for some months now that I would eat a bowl of Cheerios with skimmed milk and today it happened, EXACTLY as I forecast.  If you want to know other things that may happen at some indeterminate time in the future, sign up to my newsletter.  My colleague (a Nigerian fugitive prince) will contact you for payment details.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 09:09 | 1696508 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Wow Phoenix has their own trolls? You dont have to pay anything to read this article, and if you think the opposite then youre free to go buy all the stocks you want this morning.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 08:41 | 1696387 BrocilyBeef
BrocilyBeef's picture

I just gave this guy all my money and boy does he put the "news" into "news"letter.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 08:23 | 1696320 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

I call Bullshit.

 

The market gaps down today, and maybe even tomorrow.  But it will end on the high one of these two days.

The WHOLE WORLD is bearish at this point.  This is the time to buy.

Be brave when others are afraid, and afraid when others are brave.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 10:01 | 1696733 obelisks
obelisks's picture

Dangertime do you happen to play the air guitar by any chance ?

 

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!