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First I set CNBC on F.I.R.E., Now It Appears I've Set Sell Side Wall Street on F.I.R.E. As Well!!!
Tuesday I literally Set CNBC on F.I.R.E.!!! as the only pundit/analyst/investor to warn of the FIRE (finance/insurance/real estate) sector for 2012. The day after the warning on the insurance portion of F.I.R.E it was announced thatInsurers’ 2011 Catastrophe Losses Hit Record.
I also gave explicit warnings on the media's favorite bank, the "untouchable" Goldman Sachs! Well, it looks as if I've actually set the Wall Street Brokerage house on F.I.R.E as well. Lookee here: UBS, Goldman, Morgan Stanley Earnings Estimates Cut By JPMorgan Cazenove
JPMorgan Cazenove analysts cut their earnings outlook for investment banks for 2011, 2012 and 2013, citing worsening conditions in fixed income and equities.
Hmmmmm.... Where have we heard that befre???
UBS AG (UBSN) had its 2011 earnings-per-share estimate trimmed by 4 percent and the 2012 estimate by 11 percent, JPMorgan analysts including Kian Abouhossein said in a note to clients today. JPMorgan also curbed its Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) forecast for 2011 by 37 percent and the 2012 figure by 19 percent.
Copycats???
The earnings downgrades of banks including Goldman and UBS “reflect weaker investment banking client activity and lower volumes across the board than previously anticipated,” JPMorgan’s analysts said. “Consensus needs to come down to reflect the weaker-than-expected environment” in 2011’s fourth quarter, they said.
JPMorgan also cut forecasts for other banks including Morgan Stanley (MS), whose estimates were reduced by 5 percent for 2011 and 17 percent for 2012.
From what I understand, Wells Fargo also issued a similar report on Goldman! Quite timely, fellas! Although this is notthe First Time The Vampire Squid Get's Outed On TV!, I do believe it was the first time it was outright outed on the big MSM stations such as CNBC. Of course the sell side follows suit, after the fact. To wit, CNBC Favorite Dick Bove Admits To Being Wrong On Banks, But For The Right Reasons, But Those Reasons Are Still Wrong!!! I would like all to remember that Goldman, et. al. Suffer From The Same Malady That Collapsed Lehman and MF Global, Worlds 1st and 8th Largest Bankruptcies! This is proof positive that the BoomBustBlog Forecast Pan-European Bank Run Has Breached American Soil!!! Investors, pundits and analysts can sit idly by while Squids, Morgans & Counterparty Risk Blow Up The World One Tentacle At A Time or they can actively do something about it. The decision is yours to make.
Times are changing, y'all. Hey, when are rating agencies going to jump into the fray? Not! Maybe its time to pose the question "What Is More Valuable, The Opinion Of A Major Rating Agency Or The Opinion Of A Blog?" Go Ahead, I DARE You To Answer! In case I haven't delivered the hint strongly enough, let me be blunt. I'm directly challenging the the Sell Side house that is just now catching F.I.R.E. - Did Reggie Middleton, a Blogger at BoomBustBlog, Best Wall Streets Best of the Best?
Reggie Middleton Explains the Travails of the F.I.R.E. Sector on CNBC
Here are some links that you are unlikely to find anywhere else..
Just As I Predicted Last Quarter, The World's First FDIC Insured Hedge Fund Takes A Fat Trading Loss
 I'm Hunting Big Game Today:The Squid On The Spear Tip, Part 1 & Introduction |
I'm Hunting Big Game Today: The Squid On A Spear Tip
Summary: This is the first in a series of articles to be released this weekend concerning Goldman Sachs, the Squid! In this introduction (for those who do not regularly follow me) I demonstrate how the market, the sell side, and most investors are missing one of the biggest bastions of risk in the US investment banking industry. I will also... |
 Hunting the Squid, Part2: Since When Is Enough Derivative Exposure To Blow Up The World Something To Be Ignored? |
Hunting the Squid, Part2: Since When Is Enough Derivative Exposure To Blow Up The World Something To Be Ignored?Welcome to part two of my series on Hunting the Squid, the overvaluation and under-appreciation of the risks that is Goldman Sachs. Since this highly analytical, but poignant diatribe covers a lot of material, it's imperative that those who have not done so review part 1 of this series, I'm Hunting Big Game Today:The Squid On The Spear Tip, Part... |
 Reggie Middleton Serves Up Fried Calamari From Raw Squid: Goldman Sachs and Market Perception of Real Risks! |
Hunting the Squid Part 3: Reggie Middleton Serves Up Fried Calamari From Raw SquidFor those who don't subscribe to BoomBustblog, or haven't read I'm Hunting Big Game Today:The Squid On The Spear Tip, Part 1 & Introduction and Hunting the Squid, Part2: Since When Is Enough Derivative Exposure To Blow Up The World Something To Be Ignored?, not only have you missed out on some unique artwork, you've potentially missed out on 300%... |
 Hunting the Squid, part 4: So, What Else Can Go Wrong With The Squid? Plenty!!! |
Hunting the Squid, part 4: So, What Else Can Go Wrong With Goldman Sachs? Plenty!Yes, this more of the hardest hitting investment banking research available focusing on Goldman Sachs (the Squid), but before you go on, be sure you have read parts 1.2. and 3: I'm Hunting Big Game Today:The Squid On A Spear Tip, Part 1 & Introduction Hunting the Squid, Part2: Since When Is Enough Derivative Exposure To Blow Up The World Something To... |
What Was That I Heard About Squids Raising Capital Because They Can't Trade?
Reggie Middleton vs the Squid That Can't Trade!
For those who are encountering me for the first time or don't know who I am, feel free to find the answer to the question "Who is Reggie Middleton?"
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Reggie have you factored in real property sales never recover?
Maybe your seasoned analysts should go nose around the land records. The problem of debt can be solved. The problem of corrupted ownership can't . I hav personally seen 20 + Linda Green satisfactions of mortgage in one US county in a 6 month period. 2 million bucks of unmarketable property. Only a judicial decree can fix it. The decrees would have to be done one by one.
Real Estate is dead.
I always wanted a buddy named Reggie.
Apple (the company) acts like RIM did a few years ago. We'll see how it plays out. I hate Apple users who can't wait to whip it out and demand that everyone look at their new gagdet and how much they paid for not only the device but all the app shit loaded on. Enjoy your mortgage bitchez.
Agreed. I have to give them credit for certain things, but the fanatical cult worship BS is too much. And the complaining by Apple users when they have to use PCs or laptops in a corporate environment is unbelievable. Statements like "You're putting a gun to my head" and the incessant whining is too much.
Reggie, please get a bodyguard. The Squid is dangerous.
Burn, mother f--ker, BURN!
If fundamentals were important, the financial landscape would have been made to look like those post nuke drops on Hiroshima. If the TBTF's were held to the same standard as the TSTCA (too small to care about) then that flattened scape might by now have some of those f'ing green shoots everyone has been whining about. I think the tide will turn one day...
Keep at 'em Reggie; the Vampire Squid that has its tentacles in the peoples coffers and houses of government needs to die!
The only time I want to see Reggie Middleton on TV is if he's carrying a ball.
Good grief!
Reggie's commentary is as free as Tyler's...
Free or not... I enjoy reading both and feel I am far better informed than if I listened to Coke Head Kudlow or Cramer the Clown...
So to me, free Reggie has value...
WARREN POLLOCK & ANN BARNHARDT IN CONVERSATION
MF Global a trial Balloon for the Total Economic Collapse view at
http://barnhardt.biz/
Did you listen to Barnhardt's interview(s) on financialsense.com? Geeesh, that broad needs to get some pipe laid.
(She's right, though.)
Speaking of shit storms.... what is the latest with MF Global? Is Corzine's head still attached to his body? Or is it being used as a soccer ball by some mid-western catle man's kids... like it should be?
Reggie. Good stuff on CNBC.
Anyone..... is there a 2x, 3x inverse Insurance ETF out there?
Careful with the 2x and 3x stuff - they're only good short term not long term. And in a volatile market, ignore them altogether. Tyler put up a good post on the problems with 2x and 3x ETFs a while ago.
6 months ago, I wrote that a cascade failure would begin in the insurance industry. The missing gold from adulterated gold bars would take major underwriters, such as Lloyd's of London, down. So far, it's been swept under the rug. We will see a serious hunt for the missing gold. It won't be found because of the maze of deception in documentation
http://georgesblogforum.wordpress.com/2011/11/02/the-daily-climb-2/
Hello Reggie!
one thing am afraid of in 2013 that the accounting entries will be manipulated and twisted by teh FASB and the IAS so that it saves shit loads of fradulent institutions.
The Accounting Entries fraud is the biggest frauds ever in both the IAS and the FASB standards, and they are so important! Look at Basel III 2013 implementation of LCR (Liquidity Coverage Ratio) that the stock of high liquid assets are the GOVERNMENT BONDS that has 0% Hair Cut (ZERO % HAIR CUT) because they are safe!!!! I wont buy that paper that pays bullshit usery for free. Europe and US Banks are broke..that was regarding bonds, and it can be applied regarding Real Estate as well.
If they have MBS (One Toxic Asset) which is MTM at $100 today and the original price of the House is $1000 then they decide to revalue or asses those houses at their original purchasing price, then you will have another RE boom (Which is fake in my opinion)! check the accountings, becuase they will peddle this stuff in 2013..
The implementaion of Basel III and the changes in the accounting standards are no coincidence Sir...
Yeah, fraud is hard to model, predict or value - but at the end of the day someone is going to want to get paid real money, and not ponzi fiat. That is the day of reckoning!
I cant agree more with you... on the day or reckoning note the Eupherates (River in Iraq) will reveal GOLD where 99 dead from 100 (Sometime before judgment day)! People will realize that the Fiat is a big ponzi scheme and gold will be somewhee high passing the rubicon and its the actual trade currency along with silver and barter!
"The modern banking system manufactures money out of nothing. The process is perhaps the most astounding piece of sleight of hand that was ever invented. Banking was conceived in inequity and born in sin. Bankers own the Earth. Take it away from them but leave them the power to create money, and with a flick of a pen, they will create enough money to buy it back again. Take this great power away from them and all great fortunes like mine will disappear, for then this would be a better and happier world to live in. But if you want to continue to be the slaves of bankers and pay the cost of your own slavery, then let bankers continue to create money and control credit." Sir Josiah Stamp
i dont think they can print Gold and Silver
Thanks for you great articles Reggie, you are one of the best ...
Re-ggie!
Re-ggie!!
Re-ggie!!!
Reggie - just a comment. Your analyses are generally spot on (with exception of your relentless attacks on Apple) and I for one am grateful for the opportunity to benefit from them. Coaching point however....when you are in front of the mike you are barely understandable. Go to an image consultant and learn to talk in front of large groups and on TV, and be able to put two coherent, simple and understandable sentences together. You would be a true rock star if you do so!
Rock on!
good analysis Reggie but the storefront retail jungle pimp stuff has got to go...
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Thanks Reggie and for what it's worth, I love your style and think you are so freakin funny! I don't know why people don't get you........regardless, thanks so much for sharing your research with us.
It is kind of like the Rolling Stones. I love listening to them and hearing Mick Jagger sing. I don't care as much for the dancing & gyrations though.
I follow your articles, and I am usually grateful for your insights, but even though your basic arguments are sound, I think you may have gotten the timeline a little off skilter. Insurance is a no brainer, but financials and real estate is a bit more tricky, imo.
Consider:
1. Operation Twist will continue to buy up 90% of 30yr bonds until June. The Fed is the price driver as the largest holder.
2. Election year. S&P 500 index will not be allowed to look like the disaster it really is, and the asset purchases scheduled for QE3 would most likely concentrate on financials (Amex, GS) and the big IT sector.
3. Some analysts are predicting a surge in MBS buying by the Fed during the aforementioned (& so far hypothetical) QE3. PIMCO's Bill Gross, Soc Gen, and even one of our very own Tylers are on board with that prediction. This surge is good for the financials in the short term.
(NB, when I mention QE3, I don't mean the constant background radiation of asset purchases, but a fist full of hundreds of billions buying spree @ +$600 Billion. )
I can't quite decide who is right, or which information will turn out to be accurate, but they all need to be considered, along with the Keynsian wet dream of another US war which may or may not come this year.
I don't see how any of the bullet points above raise the NOI of CRE, and that's assuming that rates don't increase, which if they do will push cap rates even higher.
I don't see the bullet points mitigage the paradigm shift in retail shopping to the web either. They don't mitigate the record losses in P&C insurance, or the losss on European sovereign debt portfolios. Banks are already turning on each other, forcasting losses from the obvious dearth of business and spiking volatility denting trading revenues.
The Fed is not magic. They can distort equity prices and bond prices, but they cannot fix broken fundamentals. I'm a fundamentals guy, not a trader so that is what I focus on.
I am old, retired working stiff...read all you offer on ZH bec you aim for the broad, significant insights, without wasteful fluff and word salad.
To wit, just i your above comment has these gems that help form my own workable views to aid my family's survival:
...net op income vulnerability of CRE game
...interest rates effect on cap ex
...paradigm shift retail to web
...record loss trend P&C
...global linkage of sovereign debts as predictable swell
...bank top mngt guided by personal take thus threatened by internecine warfare via mk share and volatility spikes/spears
...Fed can distort/manipulate/obscure/distract appearances but not the real fundamentals that are open to direct observation
Thanks for writing for the audience that really just wants to understand.
"They can distort equity prices and bond prices, but they cannot fix broken fundamentals. I'm a fundamentals guy, not a trader so that is what I focus on."
And as I said before, I agree and I'm grateful for your contributions. That's a fair answer - thanks mate.
exactly what I was saying, thanks for the detail
Way to go Reggie! You're the man!
Reggie: your forecast is that Q1 will be as dreadful as Q1 2009. As of now banks are rallying and equities are up. Along with the current election and broad market manupulation from the companies you have listed above, it will be rather difficult for equities to hit such a sell off (USA markets). I hope you are right, this is history baby!
Are telling me what my opinion is or asking me? I don't remember saying that. Remember, stock prices (as manipulated as they appear to be) don't always correlate with their underlying fundamentals.
You stated this forcast in one of your interviews, you were asked how performance Q1 2012 will be, and you said it will resemble Q1 2009 (sorry I don't have the time to go through youtube and find it but it was within a month or so). Regardless, I am a firm believer in EU insolvency. To respond to your comment about correlation, what is the point of being a fundamental genius in economics and knowing how everything should be valued at negative equity when it isn't! Capitalizing on failure and stupidity is my passion as well; betting against the fed is a patient man's game.
My investment opinions are explicit, plentiful and well documented, but they are also behind a pay wall. I offer copius opinion to the public as well, but that should not be taken as investment advice. As a matter of fact, if you have been following my interviews you know that I've warned ad nauseum about taking free advice as if you paid for it and it is worth something!
Corporate performance is just that, corporate performance, but said performance is not always immediately reflected in stock prices. That is actually where the opportunity presents itself. One can benefit from the crowd that believes the markets are always right, when if fact they are often wrong. On the long side - Google, on the short side RIM, Bear Stearns, Lehman, etc.
That's the beauty of the business, nothing is free. The herder feeds the sheep, and then they follow him into the slaughter house = free.
reggie, what's your prediction on apple before earnings?? have you changed your view?
The man explicitly tells you nothing is free, and you still beg for his advice, WHY???
I'm not asking for his advice, I am having a little bit of fun because reggie has been completely wrong about apple across the board. I like most of Reggie's stuff, but I think he has been dead wrong and will continue to be dead wrong (through 2012 anyway) about apple.
And by the way, the man posts all sorts of shit on the internet, and does interviews, but nothing is free??
What the fuck are you talking about, have you seen his elaborate posts about apple on ZH? Geez man, gimme a break.
The CIA budget for pumping google and attacking RIM/Apple is quite generous it seems.
mideium to long term apple are stuffed but in the short term the stock price benifits from religiosus conviction. when the true believers faith is finally broken by a run of bad profit numbers the fundumentals will become important and the stock will crash. at least thats what i got from reading reggies stuff about apple. what were you stupid enough to short into religous conviction when reggie warned you not to?
no, I've disagreed with reggie ever since he started bashing the stock and have made a ton of money on apple, I was curious if he has changed his mind, especially with HTC taking a hit lately.
i've disagreed with ZH on two things and been very vocal about it, and that is US muni bonds would do well in 2011 and that apple would outperform.
so no, i wasn't "stupid enough" you ass wipe
well you are a lucky man, now you can make money on the way down as well. and if reggie is right about apples cost base, they should be coming down again. the decline in iphone prices here in norway is stuning, they are now selling at roughly the same price as androind after being at least twice the price for as long as i can remeber. what gets me is that the decline in price seems so sudden
a conartist lol
Vomit. Wretch. Hurl. I can't take him self-spoodging all over me again! I'll buy your newsletter! I'll say what you want me to say, "All hail the great god reggie. You da' man! Woo, wooo, wooo, reggie! Only you see the truth, oh prophet reggie! Oh the boundlessness of your wisdom and insight!"
Now go away. Stop it with your adolescent, infantile, pathetic self-promotion. Grow up emotionally, and you may be taken a bit more seriously. The grotesque self-promotion smacks of the amateur, desperate, unstable, terribly insecure.
Truly, find inner strength, somehow. Sorry, reggie, but I hurt for you, despite your prescient insight. I hope you find what you are looking for, I truly do, but you won't find it in the adoration of the mob.
Don't be a Douche BB... go find a lemonade stand to close. I like Reggie... he has style. He is a good read and if Tyler likes him, that is another vote. When Tyler starts posting your and my blogs - we can fight center ring. Happy Friday my angry little elf.
I don't think BB is being a douche by commenting on the self appraisal routine. It truly stinks. BTW, does that mean ZH or Tylers are endorsing authors who are paying to publish stuff? I think ... NOPE.
apple juice please.
Totally agree with you BB. It's pathetic. errrr...
But what to say?
People who subscribe to reggie's vanity fair, DESERVE what they get.
Out of curiousity, if you have such strong negative opinions, why do you a) waste your time visiting and reading my posts, and more importantly b) take even more time commenting on them? Do you not have anything better to do with your time, such as reading and commenting on authors who are more befitting your style?
Seriously, save us both the time and effort and simply avoid the Reggie columns.
Reggie, you have awesome posts. the only suggestion i have for you is post more on market technicals. for example, BAC is a piece of shit stock and everyone here knows it. however the technicals have been bullish for 2 weeks now, hence the ~20% appreciation over that time period. maybe you can balance your fundamentals commentary with technicals too? or at least say the technical analysis is offered in your paid subscription service. just a thought. I really appreciate your analysis even if the market is psycho.
Because you entertain me.
Same reason people flock to the circus freak show. Same reason the Kardashian's are popular. Lady Gaga. Because they introduce profiles so bizarre and over the top, they are absolutely intriguing BECAUSE of their psychosis.
Despite despising the behavior, being stunned and shocked by it, the dysfunctional persona is impossible not stare at, hand over mouth, eye-brows raised in shock.