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Follow Me As I Model The First Pan-European Bank Run In Damn Near Real Time
I urge everyone to get your respectve models (contingent upon your subscription level, ranging from free to institutional) from the post BoomBustBlog BNP Paribas "Run On The Bank" Models Are Available For Download and plug in your assumptions BEFORE Europe's Lehman Moment arrives - for if when it does, most nations will be powerless to do anything about it. "Why?" you ask! Well, as so adroitly articulated in Reinhart and Rogoff's "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly", for 800 years one of the primary reasons for the monumental structural indebtedness of nations is the bailing out of their respective financial systems. This massive debt then becomes too much to service, and then bang... Default! This time around, it really just may be different, though.
I say this because the developed nations of the world and their leading economic superpowers (EU/China/US) have either goosed their financial systems (China) or allowed them to leverage out of control, collapse, then bailed them out by breaking the taxpaying populace either now or by mortgaging their future (EU/US). The problem is that in each case of the "Kick the Can Triumvirate Three" [BBB trademark], none of the core, structural or even nominal banking problems have been rectified nor addressed, despite the fact that the massive depreciatng toxic assets, leveraged to the hilt and massively mispriced due to regulatory capture are growing in both threat and stature. For more on this topic, reference How Regulatory CaptureTurns Doo Doo Deadly and Lehman Brothers Dies While Getting Away Wiht Murder: Introducing Regulatory Capture.
In the US its the housing market's fall out, being fed by ever depreciating housing prices. For those with short memories, the housing prices that collapsed in 2008 that caused the crash are significantly higher than the housing prices now. If the banks were in trouble then, I query... What are they in now? See:
- Dexia Sets A $5.1bn Provision For Loss On Trying To Sell The Same Residential Real Estate Assets Upon Which JP Morgan Has Slashed Provisions 83% to $1.2bn from $7.0bn
- The Residential Real Estate Week in Review, or I Told You We're In A Real Estate Depression! The MSM is Just Catching Up
- Reggie Middleton's Real Estate Recap: As I Have Clearly Illustrated, It's a Real Estate Depression!!!
- and There's Stinky Gas Inside Of This Mini-Housing Bubble, You Don't Want To Be Around When It Pops!
In the EU, it's the sovereing debt thingy (see my pan-European sovereign debt crisis series, which anticipated this from January of 2010). I haven't had the opportunity to address in complete detail what this sovereign debt crisis will do to European CRE yet, American 'Realist' Reggie Middleton Paints a Sombre Picture for European Real Estate Amid Fears of Stagflation
And as stated above, in China, it's massive NPAs being built up in an artificially goosed up banking system designed to hide and conceal the effects of economic slowdown under the auspices of expansionary growth, when in fact it is truly a debt fueled bubble, just like in the EU and the states. See Will China Hit That Inflation Deer In The Global Macroeconomic Headlights Anyway, Despite The Fact They Are Slamming On The Brakes? and China Is In a Self-Imposed Bubble That Has Nowhere To Go But Bust! You Don't Get Something (Growth Through Stimulus) For Nothing (No Economic Consequences).
Since the problems have not been cured, they're literally guaranteed to come back and bite ass. Guaranteed! So, as suggested earlier on, download your appropriate BoomBustBlog BNP Paribas "Run On The Bank" Models (they range from free up to institutional), read the balance of this article for perspective, then populate the assumptions and inputs with what you feel is realistic. I'm sure you will come up with conclusions similar to ours. Below is sample outout from the professional level model (BNP Exposures - Professional Subscriber Download Version) that simulates the bank run that the news clippings below appear to be describing in detail...(Click to enlarge to printer quality)
Bloomberg reports: Lloyd’s of London Pulls Euro Bank Deposits
Lloyd’s of London, concerned European governments may be unable to support lenders in a worsening debt crisis, has pulled deposits in some peripheral economies as the European Central Bank provided dollars to one euro-area institution.
“There are a lot of banks who, because of the uncertainty around Europe, the market has stopped using to place deposits with,” Luke Savage, finance director of the world’s oldest insurance market, said today in a phone interview. “If you’re worried the government itself might be at risk, then you’re certainly worried the banks could be taken down with them.”
European banks and their regulators are trying to reassure investors and customers that lenders have enough capital to withstand a default by Greece and slowing economic growth caused by governments’ austerity measures. Siemens AG (SIE), European’s biggest engineering company, withdrew short-term deposits from Societe Generale SA, France’s second-largest bank, in July, a person with knowledge of the matter said yesterday.
Lloyd’s, which holds about a third of its 2.5 billion pounds ($3.9 billion) of central assets in cash, has stopped depositing money with some banks in Europe’s peripheral economies, Savage said, declining to name the countries or institutions.
Simply fuel to the fire... As excerpted from my bank run post yesterday: Most Headlines Now Show French Bank Run …
Siemens shelters up to €6bn at ECB: Siemens withdrew more than half-a-billion euros...matter told the Financial Times. In total, Siemens has parked between €4bn ($5.4bn) and...to deposit cash directly with the ECB. Siemens’ move demonstrates the impact of the eurozone... By Daniel Schäfer in London and Chris Bryant and Ralph Atkins in Frankfurt...
... As excerpted from "The Fuel Behind Institutional “Runs on the Bank" Burns Through Europe, Lehman-Style":
The modern central banking system has proven resilient enough to fortify banks against depositor runs, as was recently exemplified in the recent depositor runs on UK, Irish, Portuguese and Greek banks – most of which received relatively little fanfare. Where the risk truly lies in today’s fiat/fractional reserve banking system is the run on counterparties. Today’s global fractional reserve bank get’s more financing from institutional counterparties than any other source save its short term depositors. In cases of the perception of extreme risk, these counterparties are prone to pull funding are request overcollateralization for said funding. This is what precipitated the collapse of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, the pulling of liquidity by skittish counterparties, and the excessive capital/collateralization calls by other counterparties. Keep in mind that as some counterparties and/or depositors pull liquidity, covenants are tripped that often demand additional capital/collateral/ liquidity be put up by the remaining counterparties, thus daisy-chaining into a modern day run on the bank!
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...The biggest European banks receive an average of US$64bn funding through the U.S. money market, money market that is quite gun shy of bank collapse, and for good reason. Signs of excess stress perceived in the US combined with the conservative nature of US money market funds (post-Lehman debacle) may very well lead to a US led run on these banks. If the panic doesn’t stem from the US, it could come (or arguably is coming), from the other side of the pond. The Telegraph reports: UK banks abandon eurozone over Greek default fears
UK banks have pulled billions of pounds of funding from the euro zone as fears grow about the impact of a “Lehman-style” event connected to a Greek default.
Senior sources have revealed that leading banks, including Barclays and Standard Chartered, have radically reduced the amount of unsecured lending they are prepared to make available to euro zone banks, raising the prospect of a new credit crunch for the European banking system.
Standard Chartered is understood to have withdrawn tens of billions of pounds from the euro zone inter-bank lending market in recent months and cut its overall exposure by two-thirds in the past few weeks as it has become increasingly worried about the finances of other European banks.
Barclays has also cut its exposure in recent months as senior managers have become increasingly concerned about developments among banks with large exposures to the troubled European countries Greece, Ireland, Spain, Italy and Portugal.
In its interim management statement, published in April, Barclays reported a wholesale exposure to Spain of £6.4bn, compared with £7.2bn last June, while its exposure to Italy has fallen by more than £100m.
One source said it was “inevitable” that British banks would look to minimise their potential losses in the event the euro zone crisis were to get worse. “Everyone wants to ensure that they are not badly affected by the crisis,” said one bank executive.
Moves by stronger banks to cut back their lending to weaker banks is reminiscent of the build-up to the financial crisis in 2008, when the refusal of banks to lend to one another led to a seizing-up of the markets that eventually led to the collapse of several major banks and taxpayer bail-outs of many more.
Make no mistake - modern day bank runs are now caused by institutions!
Make no mistake! And just for those who cannot catch the hint... Reuters reports:
Bank of China halts FX swaps with some European banks
The European banks include French lenders Societe Generale (SOGN.PA), Credit Agricole (CAGR.PA) and BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA), and Bank of China halted trading with them partly because of the downgrading from Moody's, the sources said.
Another Chinese bank said it had stopped trading yuan interest rate swaps with European banks.
The sources declined to be identified because they were not authorized to speak with the media.
Contacted about this move by the Chinese banks, spokespeople for Societe Generale, UBS and BNP Paribas declined comment. Credit Agricole was not reachable for comment.
One of the sources said that Bank of China's decision may apply across its branches, including the onshore foreign exchange market.
"Apart from spot trading, all swaps and forwards trading (with the European banks) have been stopped," one source who is familiar with the matter told Reuters.
A step by step tutorial on exactly how it will happen....
- The Mechanics Behind Setting Up A Potential European Bank Run Trade and European Bank Run Trading Supplement
- What Happens When That Juggler Gets Clumsy?
- Let's Walk The Path Of A Potential Pan-European Bank Run, Then Construct Trades To Profit From Such
- The Anatomy Of A European Bank Run: Look At The Banking Situation BEFORE The Run Occurs!
- The Fuel Behind Institutional “Runs on the Bank” Burns Through Europe, Lehman-Style!
- Multiple Botched and Mismanaged Stress Test Have Created The Makings Of A Pan-European Bank Run
- France, As Most Susceptible To Contagion, Will See Its Banks Suffer
- Observations Of French Markets From A Trader's Perspective
- On Your Mark, Get Set, (Bank) Run! The D…
- ECB As European Lender Of Last Resort = Institutional Purveyor Of A Pan-European Ponzi Scheme
Again, I believe the next big thing, for when (not if, but when) European banks blow up, is the reverberation through American banks and how it WILL affect us stateside! Subscribers, be sure to be prepared. Puts are already quite costly, but there are other methods if you haven't taken your positions when the research was first released. For those who wish to subscribe, click here.
Contagion Forensic Review - Retail»
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ALL HATERS:
before you go hatin on Reginald (pardon me, Mr. Middleton) or anyone else (ahem) for that matter, bear this in mind:
your hatin says TONS about your own insecurities. i acutally pity you, which is why i don't take you by the collar and savage you with total disregard for your wittle feelings. now, freud is a good place to start.
actually, call up daddy and ask him...no, no, do it right now! call daddy and say, 'daddy, why didn't you make a man out of me?'
he'll probably respond that he was too busy trying to give you a better life, etc. etc. no, janus is with Reignald, i've turned down dozens of calls to the big city so that i could raise my boys to be MEN! men that will crack sissies skulls (metaphorically, too) when such is called for.
humility is something that man settles with God PRIVATELY. if i dunk over you dickless bastards, you bettah believe that i'm gonna point my finger right up in your mutha fuckin face, bitch!
so, yes, all you goddam limp-wristed interior decorators that can't bear to hear a man speak confident TRUTH about his abilities and competence, go fuck yourselves. Reginald's work will only take if you have the nuts to use it.
Go chat with your local Edward Jones (former mcdonalds manager now financial guru) affiliate down the street. i'm sure he'll be nice and humble. in fact, i bet he'll be humbler and humbler by the day.
the world of money and sports is made for the CONFIDENT! bring it, or go the fuck home!
sincerely,
janus
Bailout Blo', Bailout Blo' - wtf Ben do with the Bailout Blo' ?
Hang on a mo' - I ain't your ho'
Only if I gets a hit of Bailout Blo'
Tell Benny B - we're in a mess
He'd better start cranking on that freekin press
'Cause with no dough - there aint no blo'
Next thing you know
The streets are gonna flo'
So Timmy G and Benny too
Better cut the crap - or its over for you
Bailout Blo', Bailout Blo' - only thing that works is the Bailout Blo' !
- Brought to you by the artist "Wall St Rapper" - formerly known as the poster NuYawkFrankie
Why can't the giant countries (US/EU/China/Japan/India) and the families that control them continue to provide infinite liquidity? Yes, there will be infighting for slight advantages, but IMO the big guns will create liquidity and make the loans to keep everyone in the boat. It may be ugly, but there will be no run or collaspe.
WHICH IS PRECISELY WHY I BELIEVE BILL GROSS WAS CORRECT RE BOND SHORTS JUST OFF A FEW MONTHS.
THERE IS NO WAY BONDS CAN HOLD UP AGAINST THIS CRASH.
Thanks again Reg! Great work as usual. If you could do a little study on bond markets and how they tie into all of this, irrespective if you don't agree with above, that'd be both timely and would expose quite a bit more market toxicity.
So when do the citizens start making their run?
falak pema....just to understand you correctly, are you saying willingness in France to bail out big banks is stronger or weaker than the US interest in bailing out its banks? My guess is that France will move mountains before they seen one of their champions fail, more so than in the US. France is for France. My experience is that they mock the US for a harsh, 'unequal and prejudice system' yet class division and elitist systems in France have no rival.
and Reggie, dude, switch gears. There was a time when you needed to promote yourself at every turn to get your name out. Now, its out and your work is outstanding. Consider changing gears and ejoying the base of support you have worked hard to build. You are the reason we are reading the articles, you can remind us all a few less times in each and every report. I think your customers will be thrilled.
I am saying the french 'two swords' principle, inherited for Merovingian days, has been made into a twisted, manipulated travesty since Napoleon days. He designed a seamless, state patronised, oligarchical system, run by a meritocracy, whereby corporatist private enterprise and government worked together in "Colbertist" logic, as national champion schemes. De Gaulle resurrected that mode of governance in 1958 in modern technocratic France. Then, when people questioned this incestuous situation, the elected class running government, named a state promoted 'regulatory' body, full of government technocrats from the Ena elite school, who subsequently engineered a government stamped false 'bona fide' approval of the corporate monopolistic entity. Classic 'regulatory capture' play. "Move on people nothing here to declare!"
This mind set is exemplified by the state built by Napoleon. He pretended being the 'scion of Revolution-european new order' AND Emperor of France! How you can be Tarquin and Brutus's son, is a mystery... where the separation of powers, so precious to Montesqieu, where the right to criticise both swords, temporal and spiritual, so precious to Voltaire, all went up in holy emperor's smoke. Danton's construct died when Napoleon became Emperor, the Republic was no longer the framework, whatever he as Emperor said. His legacy of ONE sword speaking for all of France lives on in de Gaulle's fifth republic construct; as Sarkozy proves every day : the President of France has more power than Potus or even Putin! He is unchallenged within his country as parliament is rubber stamp.
As for the comparison with the USA, my feeling is that a nation that white washed the murder of JFK, its Potus-head man, as the Warren Commission did, cannot pretend to be outside the pale of extreme "regulatory capture". Far from it. Now that this gangrene, that tainted the political sphere since 1963, is so prevalent in corporate america that, honestly, since 2000, the USA corporate structure is as corrupt as anything that France does. More so, as its the defining country of western civilization. Anyway, to complete the analogy, its like comparing the beauty of two profligate tarts...a brunette and a blonde...you take your pick! Its totally subjective. IMHO.
Wow, you are covering a lot of ground...I cannot disagree on anything. There are differences in style, like true aristocracy and class whereas the US keeps score with money, but the end result is much the same.
Of course. US citizens want to claim they are different one from another. But hey, they are all the same.
Regulatory capture : that is the way the french play, all the time. BNP is just one of the many prime examples like in all other economic walks of life, such as their giant utility EDF. Or AREVA in nuclear. The key to understanding their mind set is expressed in regulatory capture. If the markets are stronger than the central banks, then french banks will be naked before the end of the year.
As the Moscovites say : Swimming in the Moskva river is great fun over Xmas! A good vodka before and after and the men become boys in their laughter. I hope those Enarque elites running the french banks know how to have a good laugh; at themselves. We who have accounts will be "laughing like jaundiced sheeple"...But then, we are people not Oligarchs.
One phrase comes to mind about this financial mayhem, borrowed from Russian mind set so prevalent in Moscow these days : Life is Bespredel.
Good EARLY Mornin Reginald!,
and what a damned fine day it's turnin out to be! this monday i discovered something; and i was surprised at myself. you see, early on in this i decided that i would 1) take this money VERY serioiusly 2) never, ever 'bet'...that all my reasoning would be underpinned by sound logic and unimpeachable reasoning. well, on monday i discovered that i was in fact willing to gamble. and gamble on no qeiii i did. but, qeiii is MOST DEF comming...so i'll explain how i went about my first 'bet'.
as i've mentioned before, janus could get away with anything in college; which turned out to be an unalloyed GOOD for man and beast alike, and i hope the following story bears further testimony to this fact (seein how i'd one day like to again bestride the earth with impunity):
among other things, janus was a book-maker to his fraternity brothers and other ambitious prognosticators of the pig-skin who happened to find themselves gummed-up in our web of oh-so tempting odds and spreads; but janus knew all the way back then that the money made in gambling flows one way only.
as a general rule, we'd spread out our bets if we got too heavy on one side or the other on any particular game. gamblers LOVE rumors and will load up when something looks too good to be true, which it usually is -- as if anyone would allow a gaggle of morons to collevtively profit!
now, this herding is highly pronounced on Monday nights. you've got all these desperate fuckers who've to themselves proven their immense inadequacies over and over and over, weekend after weekend after weekend, and still believe it not. anyway, they're invariaby down come sunday night; and they start prowlin whatever resources they have for something...anything that would be indicative of advantage. usually, it's pure bull-shit that gets broadcast as gospel -- and faith is freighted on this rumor as if it were money in the bank.
back in the day, if you'll recall, the 49ers weren't so bad...good, in fact -- great for a while...nevertheless, they were in Cleveland for a monday night match up that most assumed would go down as coreographed by the professional prognosticators. if i remember correctly, san fran was supposed to march up and down the field behind the arm of a still 'young' steve young (progeny of brigham).
by monday afternoon there were no substanative rumors of anything off-kilter....not even a pulled hammie. but there was this most peculiar line; san fran by only THREE!?!!? that's gotta be a misprint -- no, and the line was moving in cleveland's favor all week, but just barely -- just enough to make you feel uneasy...like when you cannot reconcile the feelin in the gut and the brain. naturally, by ten before kickoff we were nearly 10K heavy on san fran. free money the herd said. that was early in the season, and a loss was gonna cost us nearly 2K out of pocket each. so we talked about spreading it out or letting it ride -- just taking the juice and being happy bout it. and so, after much discussion of the patterns of monday night viz the cleveland browns (and they were impressive on monday nights), we decided to let it ride.
we all jumped on our mountain bikes and started off to exercize our nerves. i think it was 94; but i know it was a great night! i wanna say cleveland beat the 49ers by 9 that night; janus and all his partners rented a cabin in arkansas for a couple of days and committed many sins and created a lot of great memories.
so what's the point? well, i made a similar call on sunday night/monday morning. just let it ride. pick a side (no qeiii for now). and let the chips fall where they may; i was already committed, so i reckoned i'd keep calm and carry on, and most of all avoid distractions -- go and ride my bike, in a sense.
i did lots of thinkin over the last few days, and this is what i'm 'betting' is gonna happen: there will be MASSIVE qeii, but it won't happen until the dollar starts to REALLY strengthen and it becomes clear that the euro will, inevitably, collapse. then there will be this pantomimed-faux attempt to save the ecb and the major banks through 'restructuring', which will be defacto-dollar pegging. the BOE will initiate MASSIVE qe. and during the time that we collapse europe, we will initiate our collapse of china, which will entail a devaluing of the dollar. but america will only come out on top temporarily. it will, however, seem for a while like she's gonna come through okay (relatively...it's still gonna be bad; just not as bad as oceanian...oops!, i mean asia and europe -- until it gets AWFUL).
predictions always subject to amendment. for now, just watch the fireworks in europe.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qeMFqkcPYcg&ob=av2e
everybody's looking for something/
some of them want to use you/
some of them want to get used by you/
some of them want to abuse you/
some of them want to be abused,
janus
Reggie's plan is to scare the international sheeple into moving their money from the European system into the U.S. one. From one dead walking to another... but Reggie and his master think this stunt could actually *save* the U.S. and the dollar...
LOL!
Reginald,
I've a story to tell, but before we get into that, i wanna record my play. Closing out the 4X short on the Dow and S&P; which was fairly profitable -- futures being what they are now.
Retaining the 2X short on dow and S&P.
opening a new short on basket of major french and italian banks -- 4X.
booya!, bitchez!
janus is still battin 1.000! no losing play yet!
homage to reginald:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MzJT5ITphkg&feature=fvst
dirty bird, bitchez!
knock on the do/
who is it?,
Janus
just watched the sanders vid again...damn!
as barry switzer used to say, "there is no substitute for speed."
true nuf,
janus
Congrats on your successes. I only picked up the Bros. last night. I have been working heavy blue-collar hours (with a name like Ausperity, could I do anything else?) Gimme a week or two, cuz I's a slow reader.
my bad, ausperity.
i got carried away. really, bros. K was transcendent for me. please do not look at it as something that has to be done quickly; lest you treat it as an assignment and get nothing from it.
read it slowly; swim in it; make yourself at 'home'.
i'll just forget about it, and, when you've found the time.
i mean, it is football season -- i wouldn't expect much of me right now either.
and, yup, i'm a 'barry' sanders fan too...but with dion, i'm much more than a fan.
I'll take Barry Sanders highlights over Deon any day.
Can I just suggest that you shut your pie hole? Thanks a bunch.
oh, man!
janus has hooked him anothern!!!
hot damn!
Call us when the shuttle lands, brah. BTW, the referring to yourself in the third person-stream of thought-gibberish-posting never gets old. Really. Keep it up. We're all reading every word. Really.
oh, janus knows that you are reading everything; moreover, janus knows you're intimidated. and you should be.
first, i'd like to help you: when you say, 'shut your pie hole' i'm assuming...well, i don't really want to hurt your feelings, but, aw, fuck it. no, some of do not read and move our mouths at the same time. i know this may be shocking, but it is possible. in fact, some of us do not have slack-jaws. and at the betthehouse family reunion, it may be easy to conclude the world is constituted of nothing but slack-jawed mouth breathers; but, betthehouse, i assure you, that is not the case.
i can't quite make out what you're attempting to say. we're you making a stab at sarcasm? GOOD SHOW, betthehouse! now, if you could but make it coherent, you'd have yourself something to build on.
rome was not built in a day...brick by brick, betthehouse.
you will know the man of true genius/
for he will be surrounded by a confederacy of dunces (cicero, i think),
janus
But this all you need to know, now that even the Pope has arrived in Berlin to pump the bailout
German Standing Committee / "Supercongress" increases bailout EFSF size to 780 billion
http://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article13618902/Rettungsfonds-EFSF-nimmt-e...
german cds yumyum
With any less accuracy in your calls, you would be a joke.
For some reason, you aren't...
But please Reggie, I beg you, let your work stand on its own and stop repeatedly telling us how fabulous you have been. Your work is great, and I would almost consider a subscription, but I can't take any more of your reminding me of your wonderfulness. Let people read your work and then they can congratulate you, before you beat them to it, over and over and over again.
FWIW - I love you Reggie and your analysis - but have to agree. I read you because of your record (which I have no problem keeping track of). Your product speaks for itself.
The Phoenix Capital model of over-pimping cheapens your exquisite analysis and insight which we all can see without reminders. Look at Marc Faber - his track record speaks for him and people listen.
GOT MODESTY???
pvmuse, Thank you very much. Reggie, I love you. You are doing yourself a disservice by interrupting every fucking thought and chart with reminders of how right you are. We fucking get it, we love the work, just stop making every article a selling point. Have a greatest hits article at the end of the month, the rest of the time, take a break and just do what you do best, research.
He runs a business. Let him market himself as he sees fit. If you like the package but not the wrapping, then shut up and subscribe and you'll get the meat without the plastic wrap. You sound like the EBT entitlement crowd for crissakes. "Give me more just don't ask me to pay for it!"
what muse says - ditch that insecurity of yours and stop boasting all the time. you're a fine forecaster but you come across as a used car salesman
is the paid content any different in tone or style? Remember, we're just reading the free stuff. If that works for him in terms of getting sign-ons, then perhaps the sell does stop once people subscribe.
Bingo!
with the results which you claim (over and over and over), why would you not start a hedge fund? why do you choose to only manage your own money and earn peanuts (relative to hf money) from selling subscriptions?
Because some of us are simply not motivated solely by money, my friend. A strange concept to many, but it does exist.
You are right, it is indeed a strange concept to me and I suspect to most people. But these days I worry not about making more money but just about preserving what I have. You seem like a straight-up guy and I don't doubt what you claim to have made, I just wish I could invest in you directly rather than through your blog, and I think I'm not alone.
The blog actually started out as a preliminary publicity arm to prime the launch of my hedge fund, but as the hedge fund bubble popped and I witnessed first hand how short term the memory is of most investors, I told myself I'd rather dedicate the time and energy towards hanging out with my children an extra 2 to 4 hours per day than kissing the ass of those who's dollars mean more to them than everything else - and that's after dumping $100k of my own money into the fund formation. Paired with crackshot traders and the right support team, I'd wipe the floor with many brand name hedge fund guys who currently sport 9 and 10 digit AUM numbers.
Then again, we obviously have different goals in life, so I may never compete with them. Then again, maybe I will. I have recieved an overture or two, but if you were to invest money with me you'd have to realize that I would not be your run of the mill advisor or manager.
I look, act, and feel different than the hedge fund majority, by far.
Do you really have the long term perspective and radical mindset that it would take to place money with someone like me? To begin with, you'd have to think several quarters and sometimes even years in advance, and not succumb to the sell side quarterly earings mantra or what have you done for me this month hedge fund participation fee thing. Believe it or not, that is a good thing. See Wall Street Real Estate Funds Lose Between 61% to 98% for Their Investors as They Rake in Fees!
I'll tell you one, thing... You'd definitely have something to discuss at that cocktail parties in Sag Harbor next summer :-)
My God you are awesome Reggie!!!
Thanks for you light!!!
Mr. Middleton,
funniest fukin thing just happened...
i was leanin into the screen, with my eyeballs just inches from it, tryin to make out a book title or two, and wouldn't you know it, mrs. janus comes bargin into my attic office (my office is crimson with maps, a beautiful rendering of an owl, family crest, photos from my life stages, some van gogh replicas, that awesome manet of the lil prostitute with the ribbon round her neck, some originals by obscure finds, and, of course, books and magazines everywhere).
anyway, so she sees me ooglin this photo of a shirtless black man, and, well, it was an odd moment. nevertheless, i'm supposed to get to work on my abs now. thanks, you SOB.
thought you may get a kick outta that,
janus
haha, you are different indeed
how much AUM do you need to start?
Simply do the math of what it would take to run a small to medium business - rent, salaries, support, research/trading, tech, bookeeping and regulatory and have a comfortable income left over at a 2% management fee. Someone would starve of go out of business under $100mm before they had a legitimate (as in not driven by luck or happenstance) opportunity to capitalize on any unique talents or skills they may or may not have. I would rather not starve nor go out of business.
If you are serious and have access to said capital, I'm always willing to listen. Reach out to me: reggie at boombustblog dot com.
Absolutely understood, working for myself I understand there is no safety net. I do love the work...wish I understood it all...and also appreciate trying to do everything at once, like the work and the marketing etc. Seriously do respect your understanding of the matter and what it takes to actually deliver it as a business...hope the critique is taken in a supportive manner.
I'm sorry to hear that. I sincerely thought you would end up owning that Eiffel tower!
Btw : you could probably dance better than most boxers do. I saw a world contest that was such a sham. It looked like a WS scam in the ring the way that guy knocked out the Mehican on two foul punches, with the referee looking the other way. Smelt very much like "Regulatory capture" to me!
your call about bnp has been spot on
Dates, Reggie, Dates
Give us Dates. WHEN IS THIS SHIT GOING TO HAPPEN??
Thank you!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7JFG9tbhgys
...lol, Crisismode. Those occult boys sure like their galactic cartography etc... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=60goUV-PHO0
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uc-7G2OSsBY
Reggie, your analysis is a human defensive assessment beyond the ''Total Imformation Awareness'' General John Poindexter Iran Contra to the Constitution Program, so, how close is the Rahm Co. Crisis? ...or, as it were, the mark of the beast moment? ...meaning, will a WMD 666 Citi size event ''change'' happen before the year ends or do we still need to wait a bit longer, say 2013ish?
That aside, have you ever factored in the market movements of the S&L BCCI Insiders up to their 2001 movement or other such Leman Moments that define foreign and domestic enemy activity? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NMUYVXw-UuE
Good stuff Reggie! Post this on Facebook it will not get one comment, post that Snooki's fat ass fell of a barstool at Dancing with the Stars and the whole community will chime in! When shit does hit the fan soon, the deers in the headlights will be fun checking out!
You do not bore me. Why is that?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KNQRqAoT-2c&feature=player_detailpage
you know what i love about this scene? the vast majority of the American people don't get it! (And I thank God for that btw. I've seen "the roll" for real many times...and i must say looking at it in the movies never ceases to entertain.) And of course I apologize if i have...yet again?...offended...the "entire planet" in some way.
"This time is different Reggie," I really mean it....really....
motley. I agree. He writes some damn good stuff chock full of details and is willing to put his nuts in a sling with his analysis.
Gotta like that.
You know what Reggie?
You're one cocky motherfucker but with your batting record as of late I may just contract you to manage my retirement account once I pile up enough dough to step off of the hamster wheel.