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Gold Looks Like Its 2008
Near term record high negative correlations between equities and gold. Looks like 2008 all over again.
If one looks closely at the data though, in 2008 the negative correlations peaked approximately a month before the Lehman event. On August 15th, 2008, the prior 50 trading day correlation hit -.59. At this point the S&P was still at approximately the 1200 area (before then plummeting to the 600s). When things really started to unravel, gold lost its magic touch as an effective hedge.
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A chart i like is the ratio of gold price to the s&p
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/content/gold+relative+to+th...
the article is from 2007 , its the only one i could find to link as i cant post the up to date chart i have.
the up to date shows gold climbing on the chart from 2007 to now but only up to 1989/90 equivalent levels.
this suggests there is a long way to go to get to the 1930 equivalent levels - the 1930's is the most similar historical elite stealing all the cash event to compare with today
from making me warily watchful of the gold price gains it makes me bullish again on gold.
Are you saying there's no more big down days coming? We gor that reaction based on some Euro hand wringing and a mild downturn in the economy, what happens when we get some real nightmare news.
But, but, but...Obama said he can fix it last night. Is this saying he is a liar??
No comparison to either 08 or 80. CB's and Sovereign's weren't buyers and the FED had a fully loaded Holster. The holster is empty and only one bullet remains in the chamber..
Anyone expecting a repeat of 2008 is just another general preparing to fight the last war, manning their paper Maginot Line, loading their artillery with US Trasheries and staring toward the deflationary east, even as the golden German tanks roll through the financial Ardennes and attack them from their inflationary rear.
Yes indeed but only in the long run. After seeing gold drop on the SNB action, and gold flat on rumors of a Greek default, and funky paper games overnight, I would be very careful of assuming the $2k price level won't be defended with Ben's entire toolshed. This is definitely not over. I love my physical and am very confident in that position, but I covered my PHYS for the weekend. I think another beat down is coming.
I think I just like picking on you today.... You do understand that in 2008 everyone saw an inflationary rise due the illusion of more debt being created and now the deflation is taking hold again you are telling people they wont see the same thing... does that mean you think deflation is here to stay?
You do understand that this time when the FED steps in and states they are guaranteeing everything that everyone now knows its a complete bluff?
Agreed... let the defaltionary collapse begin.
Deflation, yes, but not for long. Chew on this: http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2011/04/deflation-or-hyperinflation.html
... and that brief "deflation moment" is when you back the truck up to the coin store and whip out your worthless lettuce (FRNs)....
Gold, soon.. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_z2O289Jemo
if the sreallyhtf this time, it would have to be because faith in the dollar is lost. and if that happens, where else to go but gold?
Uh, I think gold lost but lost less than most everything else and rebounded first, and ultimately best
EXACTLY. I wish I had bought an assload of silver at the peak in 2008, rather than the reletively small amount I bought after the crash, simply because it has gone up so dman much since then, despite the big crash.
The point of this whole exercise is to accumulate physical gold and silver. People bitch and moan about how the price MIGHT go down in the future, but so what? We buyers WANT the price to go down, because we never plan to sell our silver and gold for dollars.
Karl Denniger admits he voted for Obama. In other words, not someone I would rely on for finanacial or any other kind of advice.
Say it isn't so, Joe, say it isn't so!
And a vote for McCain would show how smart he is? WTF do you think would be different if McCain won?
Two heads - same fascio-bankster monster.
Actually, Karl contributed to McCain's campaign, and then voted for Obama
http://www.city-data.com/elec2/08/elec-NICEVILLE-FL-08.html
Looking back, I now realize that McCain and the rest of the Keating 5 should have been barred from politics for life. That would have sent a strong message that fraud and corruption would not be tolerated in politics. Instead, they received a hand slap and we find ourselves drowning in fraud and corruption...
KD is a moron but none of the POTUS choices were worth a crap. We need real leadership...not another politician.
His rabid, irrational, utterly ignorant and hate-filled attacks on gold and the advocates of holding gold were more than enough to discredit Karl Denninger for me.
Some people just NEVER get it.... don't throw the baby out with the wash.
I strongly disagree with KD on the shiny but he is often spot on with the other issues of the day.
Funny how you think how someone thats telling me to buy gold is more worthy of my attention than someone who isn't.... yet every time you talk you never give any good reasons for your theory... for as often you visit ZH I bet you never read the articles..
And funny how you are now dogging me in every thread, trying desperately but unsuccessfully to attack me and convince us that up is down and black is white.
I have Austrian monetary theory, and thousands of years of monetary history, on my side --- and you have, what, Karl Denninger and his hero Keynes?
Not only did you foolishly bring a knife to a gun fight, kid, you brought a butter knife. A plastic one. A short one. That's already cracked.
lol, more like a spork.
think that's check-mate Akak ;)
In all fairness, Denninger is excellent at analyzing the financials - company, government, individual, etc - but he is a total waste for anything else. If someone is attempting to protect himself/herself from what is occurring/coming, he is a disaster.
Additionally, it is difficult to find someone who DID NOT vote for The Messiah, at least at the time. Since then, virtually ALL bumper stickers have been removed and no one will admit to having supported him.
Jim Willie> http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/jim-willie/2011/09/07/false-c... -- He addresses IDIOTS like this so-called author and the CRAP that they put forward.
<scriabinop23
And our country and the rest of the world system is the same also.
Are we worse off,or better off since '08?.
Think people will dump ONE of the only REAL STORES of vaue left this time?.
Everyone who has a half a brain will not.
We have already seen that movie, and the new one sequel 2 sucks far worse.
If such a sale on gold were to be held, it would be more like a Victoria's Secret 12 hour bra sale than a WalMart Rollback smiley face savings on some floor cleaner!
It's a different day.
Yep. Karl Denninger has been saying this since 2007.
KD = day trader that got lucky and out of dotcom before collapse... which led him to think that he is smarter than he is... He is one of a cast of millions that have been wrong about gold, but will not admit it.
Well said Snidley.
Denninger loves the whole paper game and fiat currency in general, and remains obstinantly blind to the fact that it is not the men in power who are to blame, but the entire corrupt financial and monetary system itself that is the problem.
Plus, his utter ignorance of monetary theory and history, concurrent with his unabashed idiotic ramblings over those topics, made me positively embarrassed for him. Like watching a man in an expensive suit walking down Wall Street with a big ol' pee stain on his crotch.
What's with KD and the whole constant anal-rape thing? Seen his picture I think he is safe. Weird, some of the guys here have got that too...and how come aliens come down only in the US and probe away?
Damn, now I'm getting it too.
Karl Denninger said Irene and east coast earthquake were sign from God that spending in DC was out of control.
Smart, articulate, but whacko. Will never read his site again...
He's a Tokyo Rose but he dossn't know. You start at his site and follow the hose. Go lightly there but don't make a peep, just have a look at what he's feeding his sheep.
Store of Wealth. People are wiser now and realize the Barbaric metal is more valuable as a store of wealth rather then bonds, dollars, etc. which have higher risks.
When you hold physical, there are no weak hands..
I agree.
http://econocasts.blogspot.com/
So?
Take at look at gold/CHF correlation, which I believe is more stable than gold/S&P.
One key difference:
Look at the volatility in 2008 as the ratio was pushed down to -.59, compared to the lack of volatility in the 2011 move.
The 2011 move mirrors the summer 2010 move more closely... and what happened after the 2010 move?
QE2.
Interesting Analysis. So is the author teasing us with the possibility that gold will suddenly collapse like in 2008 then? I hope so, I have a home equity line I'd like to ring up a few thousand ounces of silver on...
You can't short a religion, can you?
Long: Orthodox Christianity. Short: the world.
Long: Consequences. Short: Truth
There will be outright wealth confiscation before they are done, including gold. Plan to live small and fly under the radar.
Plan on NOT! Being a Pussy and stading with your fellow Americans and fighting the Evil Lobby Whores and thier Modern day Pinkertons!!
Fuck the Rockefellers!! or those like minded!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xp2BK7pKJOI&feature=related
Ludlow Massacre
How about an S&P correlation to sun spots graph?