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Gold ready to attack prior highs in the 1900’s
Gold ready to attack prior highs in the 1900’s
Courtesy of David Banister at MarketTrendForecast.com
It’s been several weeks since I’ve written about Gold and we have had a wild ride since the 1910-1920 highs in August. When gold was trading at that lofty price I forecasted a major correction was nearing. We were shorting gold from $1862- $910 prior to the huge $208 drop that took place over just a a few days. We covered our short at $1725 and then Gold rallied back to a double top at $1920 and then fell back to $1531.
That pullback to $1531 qualifies as a Fibonacci retracement of the 34 month rally from $681 to $1920, and would also qualify for a price low for a 4th major wave correction that I discussed in prior forecasts. My initial targets for the Gold pullback were $1480-$1520 if the $1650 area was violated. Most recently we have seen Gold run up to 1681 which is another Fibonacci resistance zone a few times and then back off to the low $1600’s.
With the recent push over $1681, we can now confirm the 4th wave is over at $1531 lows and that the 5th wave is likely in the very early stages, but beginning to build steam. I will say that we want to make sure the 1650-1680’s areas are defended by Gold on any pullbacks in order for this forecast to remain valid. During this 5th wave up, eventually we should see the $2380 ranges in Gold, but it will not take place overnight. In the next few months I am looking for Gold to attack the $1900 range, possibly even by year end, and then in 2012 attacking the $2000 plus ranges.
With all of the Macro events in Europe changing on an almost daily basis, the whipsaws in both the precious metals and equities markets are difficult to forecast and trade for most investors. However, Gold has been moving in defined Fibonacci and wave patterns for ten years now, and has about three years left in a 13 year bull cycle if I’m right.
Below is the updated weekly chart of Gold. You can see prior low’s as they related to oversold indicators, and where we just came off the 1531 lows and its Fibonacci pivot along with the oversold indicators below.
Look for Gold to attack 1775 first, then 1800, 1840, then 1900 in the coming 6-10 weeks or so.
- Gold Forecast
You can get 3-5 updates a week on Gold, SP500, and Silver by visiting www.MarketTrendForecast.com
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shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh ..... don't tell anyone this.....
It's a fibonaci point?!?!?! Why didn't someone tell me? I'm loadin' up the credit cards.
I find myself looking at this stuff too much, who really cares anyway.
Sam Lowry: My name's Lowry. Sam Lowry. I've been told to report to Mr. Warrenn.
Porter - Information Retrieval: Thirtieth floor, sir. You're expected.
Sam Lowry: Um... don't you want to search me?
Porter - Information Retrieval: No sir.
Sam Lowry: Do you want to see my ID?
Porter - Information Retrieval: No need, sir.
Sam Lowry: But I could be anybody.
Porter - Information Retrieval: No you couldn't sir. This is Information Retrieval.
What about silver?
What bothers me is that both gold and silver seem to go the same direction as the stock market (PMs up and the stock market up or PMs down and the stock market down). Comments on this?
What bothers me is that both gold and silver seem to go the same direction as the stock market (PMs up and the stock market up or PMs down and the stock market down)
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Sometimes but not always-gold can and does decouple from both the stock market and economic conditions and all other currencies-
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/RbZwf5lgCXI/AAAAAAAAAN0/WJYO6dh-og...
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/RbmMtplgCjI/AAAAAAAAAPk/NtN5JDlwHi...
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/RbmVmJlgCkI/AAAAAAAAAPs/uJ8e5vdJSj...
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/Rspgm1gHg1I/AAAAAAAABOU/mVFqETxkBy...
Central Planners have a vested interest in Gold not behaving like a 'safe haven'.
Elliot Shmelliot.
File:GermanyHyperChart.jpg - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
I beats me that people think they can "fit" T/A to a market that is completely manipulated ... for the most part anyway.
Fitting Gold's recent move+drop to a Fibonacci wave/curve ? ... was it "mathemenatically expected" that the CME would suddenly hike margins ?
Still , I do agree that Gold must go higher .. barring the usual attacks of course .. eventually, like at "Game Over"
Most American's do not know or understand the first thing about the evil and dastardly nature of Inflation.
Get ready set go!!!!!!
Food inflation continuing to rear its ugly head will continue the marvelous rally in the metals, in case any did not notice the price of a jar of peanut butter rose in some locals 40 % this past week, its only the beginning. Any grocery or other store item that did not rise in price with this years inflation burst will rocket up and burn through a few more notes of that folding currency you think is real money wadded up in your pocket in the coming year.
Ever notice how Elliot wavers are always showing you that you are in the "last wave"? This isn't wave 5. This is more like wave 50 in a never ending sequence of waves that will end over 10,000. Eliot Wave TA does not work with hyperinflated currency. Everyone using Elliot Wave has been saying this same stuff since 400.
Nah, it works fine. It's just that the waves get wicked gnarly.
nahhh until the fed prints again, gold will not rise. Why do people think gold will rise in a down market?
"Why do people think gold will rise in a down market?"
Try flight to quality.
Try Exter's Pyramid
nahhh until the fed prints again, gold will not rise. Why do people think gold will rise in a down market?
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I don't know whether gold will correct lower yet or not for sure-
In the short run I think a sharp market sell off gold will trade lower-it needs to confirm the 200 DMA imo-but gold has a tendency to make half the players wrong and the other half who are right are only right because of luck-
I don't agree that gold needs printing before it goes higher-
Gold is and has been rising for 10 years because of mainly one thing and that is a credit event-
Gold and the 30 yr, bond both reacted to abnormal credit expansion/Inflation in 01 and that risk still exists except the difference now is the flip side to credit expansion "default risk" ie:Deflation-
Gold is money-the king currency and money is king in deflation-
Because of negative real interest rates, and the possibility that we'll see chronic negative NOMINAL interest rates.
http://www.NowAndFutures.com/forecast.html#predict_gold
The Canadian Mint has announced plans to offer ETRs (exchange tradeable receipts) for bullion to be tradeable on the Toronto Stock Exchange. The bullion would be stored by the Canadian Mint and there would be no use of derivatives etc. The fee will be .35% per year. The receipts would be redeemable for physical gold.
Given that the Canadian Mint would bring with it an explicit or implicit guarantee by the Canadian Government I think that the offering is going to be over-subscribed. Any investor should do their own due diligence since: (a) the newspaper report might be wrong; (b) I might be an idiot; (c) I might be a shill; (d) I might be a dog; or (e) I might be the eTrade baby (well no, actually I am not the eTrade baby). That said this could be a very popular way to hold gold and is probably worth looking at if you are in the market for gold.
When silver got hammered from 42 to 28 in September, it's technicals were laid to waste. Then it came back, or tried to anyhow.
I have a hard time accepting TA as a good predictor with the predatory HFT teamed up with the paper blizzards we've seen lately. Just hide the physical and try to survive til the bankers finally choke on their own bullshit. . My plan in a nutshell.
Silver ran up 14X exactly over its low in the 1990's, before it blew out. Oil ran up 14X exactly over its low in the 1990's, before it blew out. Gold is slower, but should see the same 14X appreciation eventually.
Have to agree with the 4th wave analogy:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p77104277393&a=222758747&listNum=2
naked shorts- and paper gold- will always set the price, at there price. you got to be with the inside boys. but there are no openings now.
Just $1,900?
Really?
When the ECB, EFSF are going to be birthing 3 trillion.
I'm not sure the best time to consult the wave count or the Dow Theory is during the biggest financial hurricane in human history. Certainly the most manipulated market during that hurricane is liable fall outside the normal wave count.
Sorry, the only thing that will assist with the gold trade in this market is experience, luck, knowing the scam, and grim determination. History tells us where this is going, and they are going to use every trick in the book to shake us out. Thank God for my physical position or I would have no fingernails left.
iq's are going down and so goes the future also.
http://expose2.wordpress.com