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The Golden End Game – A Thought Experiment - Part Two
The Golden End Game – A Thought Experiment
Part Two of Two
By
Cognitive Dissonance
With limericks by The Limerick King
This is part two of a two part exploration (part one can be found here) into what the world might look like after a total or partial collapse of the currency/economic system from the perspective of holding Gold. As the title explains this is a thought experiment, not a dissertation filled with footnotes and references. Consider it one man’s flight of fancy, so take what you need and leave the rest. Anyone who claims they actually know what will happen is definitely a fool greater than me.
As markets are starting to sink
The end could be here in a wink
So should I prepare?
Should I even care?
My PMs will save me!!! (I think......)
(The Limerick King)
As a reminder of something emphasized in Part One, I am discussing a worst case scenario here. So please keep this in mind when your brain synapses start firing and you feel compelled to stop reading and fire off a nasty comment. There are thousands of lesser scenarios that could play out here as opposed to only hundreds of worse case scenarios. What you find below are just my thoughts on the matter, not fact or even hard opinion.
In addition, this essay isn’t directed towards the small PM ‘investor’ who owns ‘small’ amounts of Gold and Silver, for example under 20 ounces of Gold and several hundred ounces of Silver. Nor is it directed towards the whales, those who can purchase and safely store (preferably offshore) several hundred or even thousands of ounces of Gold. They have similar problems as everyone else, but much more flexibility. Rather this essay is directed towards those solidly middle class people who are converting their ‘wealth’ into Gold and Silver, even going so far as to cash out their qualified retirement accounts (IRA’s, 401(k)’s and qualified annuities) or mortgage their property in order to increase their Precious Metal stash.
I see and hear a great deal of cognitive dissonance among those who promote Gold as the way to salvation, all while ignoring or dismissing the idea of governmental confiscation of said Golden chariots. It’s not like doing so would be totally unprecedented in the US (or on other plantations for that matter) since President Franklin Roosevelt’s April 5, 1933 Executive Order 6102 did precisely that, promptly followed by a revaluation of said confiscated Gold to push the anal probe that much further up the rear.
What everyone seems to forget is that the United States is not the only plantation bleeding from every orifice while simultaneously ripping open new ones. This is a global party we’re throwing here and everyone who is anyone seems to have accepted the invitation, something many are beginning to regret as they desperately click the ‘un-send’ button. Actually this isn’t true, since we already know that the blue blood families play all sides against each other, then turn things around and transform former arch enemies in lifelong best girlfriends, the only way this global Ponzi could have progressed to this point in the collapse countdown.
I guess my point is simple. Today’s (global) disaster isn’t Argentina from 1989-1990 and again in 1999-2002. Nor is it Zimbabwe from 2004-2009 or even the Weimar Republic from 1920-1923. While the rest of the world was also (more or less) suffering during those turbulent times, Argentina, Zimbabwe and the Weimar were islands of disaster in a world of relative stability.
The Kleptocrat game is not chance
It resembles a well-rehearsed dance
With lifts, dips and spins
Until treachery wins
And the middle-class shits in their pants
(The Limerick King)
Remember that almost by definition disaster recovery requires relative normalcy somewhere nearby as the staging area from where you send in the life lines and supplies, as well as a place to evacuate the wounded. So when Norman, Oklahoma suffers a devastating tornado, help comes rushing in from 10-500 miles away. But what happens if the entire country is simultaneously ravaged by natural (Ponzi) disaster? Where does the help come from then? Overseas? But they are running the same Ponzi as we are here. So if we go down, they go down just as hard if not harder and vice versa.
One of the staples of the Armageddon genre of disaster porn is the notion that, in a national/global disaster, there is no safe harbor from which to coordinate and launch the rescue ships. Thus everyone goes into survival mode and if you aren’t helping yourself then no one is. Social rules of order and decorum are quickly abandoned for survival of the fittest and suddenly it is game on Mad Max style. Ironically if you remember the original Mad Max movie, it begins shortly after a terrible global disaster. Max was one of several cops working with the ‘authorities’ in an effort to maintain some type of order in the rapidly decaying remains of society. It was all downhill from there.
In response to those who would disagree with my line of reasoning by saying, “CD, you can’t compare a global natural disaster, where there is infrastructure damage, to an economic collapse, where at least initially all infrastructure remains in place and functioning” all I can say is that I disagree. The active ingredient in my analogy isn’t the level or type of global devastation as much as the equality or uniformity of it.
External rescue requires a more or less untouched area that contains a surplus of resources, financial or otherwise, and the means to organize and deploy them into the underserved disaster area. Because the Ponzi disease is globally and uniformly distributed around the developed world, in the event of a total or partial collapse, essentially there are no substantial surplus resources that can be gathered and transported from one area to the next. Everyone is in the same degraded condition. Well……actually there are ‘excess surplus assets’ available after a global economic collapse. Those assets are called the people’s Gold. But we’ll get to that in a moment.
So any rescue or recovery can only come from in-place assets and organized systems such as the existing military and governmental bureaucracy. Thus other than some shifting of leadership positions to create scapegoats and dispel slave anger, not much will change unless an armed and organized revolt is mounted. While that might eventually come about, it will not initially, thus allowing the military to disperse and dissolve any pockets of semi-organized resistance or even to prevent states from seceding so that they may create their own economic systems and/or preserve local and regional natural resources.
So who could have guessed Marx was right?
That the Bourgeoisie class is a blight?
All our wealth they will take
While they let us eat cake
We are slaves who must stand-up and fight!
(The Limerick King)
There seems to be a never ending stream of comments left on Zero Hedge that are short and sweet. Let it all burn to the ground baby so that we can rebuild it from scratch. I honestly think these people have no idea what that really means because in today’s world of massive financial leverage and staggering amounts of derivative contracts, too big to fail banks using 40 or 50 to 1 leverage and the majority of the slave population living paycheck to paycheck etc., burning it all down just might be an act of compassion compared to what would happen if it all just fell apart.
Anyone who doesn’t think martial law would be immediately declared and our remaining civil rights forcibly removed in the event of a partial or total economic/currency collapse has been brewing and taste testing their own brand of Kool-Aid. When order begins to break down, the existing power base WILL attempt to restore order and they won’t be gentle while doing so. And for the most part the plantation slaves will welcome the intervention because they have not prepared for the chaos, having ignored all the warning signs because they relied upon their masters to protect them.
So once again let us circle back to the principal question. What will you do with all that Gold and how will you reintegrate it into any new currency system that is implemented? During the first few hours, days, even weeks after the partial or total collapse, on a local basis you will be able to use your Gold (and especially your Silver) in small increments to barter for the goods and services you need to continue to live.
But very quickly, most likely the same day of the collapse, the government will announce draconian banking, price, wage and possibly even barter controls. And they will begin to implement unilateral decisions about what is needed where and when. If you have something the ‘greater good’ needs or wants and if others know about your good fortune, it could very easily be taken from you.
On a more practical basis, because the established control system will want to quickly put in place some type of replacement currency system, our Gold and other precious metals may actually escape any attempt at a quick governmental grab and go. But within days, and at most a week or so, global decisions will be made (correction: they have already been made, they will be implemented after a week) and in my opinion the priority will be to establish confidence in any new currency system or reestablish confidence in the old.
While one can’t know exactly how it will go down, considering that Gold and other PMs will probably have gone through the roof by this point, it is highly likely that Gold, along with other PMs or a basket of commodities (and possibly other new or old foreign currencies) will be used to back any new or renewed currency. The IMF’s so called Special Drawing Rights (SDR), essentially a global currency, is a perfect example of a cobbled together currency that might gain traction.
When HFT algos have ceased
And those who had most have the least
Is gold the best bet?
For a system reset?
Or will Banksters create a new beast?
(The Limerick King)
Now here is where I strongly suggest that, for several reasons, ‘they’ will feel compelled to confiscate Gold from the population. And this works on a global as well as national scale folks. The principal psychological warfare technique they will us is to vilify and scapegoat those ugly Gold hoarders and evil speculators. And there is no doubt in my mind that they will claim with absolute confidence and with concocted evidence that these evil Precious Metal terrorists destroyed the old system.
‘Truth’ will be immaterial at this point and actually counterproductive for those trying to beat back the resurgent Ponzi Hydra. Frightened people are not deep thinkers and they most certainly are not very reasonable. The emotional pain of collapse must be relieved, so any handy pain killer will be willingly ingested. History is replete with examples of this and a frightened and extremely angry slave population will gratefully latch onto the offered Gold hating piñata rather than soul search and examine their own role in the present disaster.
Depending upon the believability of various figures bandied about, less than one percent of the US population owns Gold as an investment (even less own the physical) and less than 2% own Gold miner shares. At the peak of the last Gold rush in the late 70’s and early 80’s I believe 8% of the US population owned investment Gold. Even if the present Gold love affair reaches that level of participation before the End Game commences, this group will still be a small minority and it will be very easy to turn the general population against them/us.
In addition, those who hold their Gold in bank safety deposit boxes or private vaults, at bullion banks or any other private, public or governmental storage facility will find that it will not be there for long. I suspect that the entities that own or control the facilities will be ordered to close their doors and to turn over the Gold. So even if we own Gold in ‘real physical’ fund companies such as Sprott, we will soon find that it isn’t available for withdrawal after the fall. And please don’t talk to me about the rule of law. We saw how the rule of law was respected when the US ran over the GM bond holders. Let’s get real here folks, under these circumstances the law is what they say the law is.
As well, plantation (country) borders will essentially be meaningless because every modern country will be in the same predicament. So the smart play for the new political puppets will be to cooperate with every other plantation (even enemies) to reenergize the system as quickly as possible. The precious metal mining companies will probably be nationalized, even if that just means that all of the output from the mines will be directed to the vaults of the ‘host’ plantation. China is effectively doing this now. So the only Gold you can count on is the Gold coins and small bars buried in the sand at the bottom of your fish tank.
Aside from the uncontrolled corruption and unrestrained fiat creation, if the old system collapsed because the general population lost faith in the financial system (ultimately the real reason behind any fiat collapse because it is not the unrestrained fiat printing, but the loss of public faith and belief the printing engenders, that destroys a fiat) and Gold in its role as the ultimate safe haven was the lightening rod that inflamed and focused that loss of faith, it will be incumbent upon the ‘new’ leadership to defuse and deflect any pockets of resistance to the new or reformed currency. By making a show of confiscating Gold ‘for the good of the people’ many non Gold holding people will go along with the theft because it essentially helps pull their asses out of the fire.
In effect the reckless and imprudent will cheer on the confiscation because backing the theft of others increases the chance they will be rewarded, or at least not severely punished, for their bad behavior. Moral hazard works wonders for the general population as well as the too big to fail. Because the general population can (and will) be stampeded when the crisis gets ‘real’, this will allow the political puppets to set up tiered currency conversion systems and unfair Gold and other PM reintegration rules. The rich will get richer and the poor will……well, you know. We will hear a lot of crying by the rich and powerful about how they just can’t put their glorious talents to work unless they receive special ‘incentives’. I just can’t wait to hear the imaginative sob stories of the down and out crony capitalists.
The dollar says, "In God We Trust"
But the dollar's about to go bust
So who betrayed whom
That has led to our doom?
(Twas the one who embraced greed and lust)
(The Limerick King)
While black and barter markets will most definitely spring up as they did in the 1930’s and 70’s, they might be less effective than they were back then unless we use them strictly for locally produced items and services. And even then I can see many problems and pitfalls. The one hope I have here is that the underground market for drugs and stolen goods will not go away because of the collapse, particularly since the new Ponzi will once again want to use (inter)national drug money to feed the beast. This might help to create pathways for black market currency to flow back into the main system which in return sustains the PM reintegration. We shall see if I am correct.
I see Gold and PM dealers becoming highly regulated and required under heavy penalty of law to report any and all relatively large PM transactions, for example anything over two or three ounces of Gold, thus effectively cutting off Joe’s ability to feed his or her Gold back into the system and extract or convert the wealth they tried to transport from the old system to the new. It can be done, but only very slowly and at considerable time, money and labor expense. And most importantly, with no free floating Gold market to set realistic prices, we will once again be robbed in broad daylight. They don’t need to ‘take’ your Gold, just take its value through price controls.
I expect that one of the national and possibly worldwide changes that will be implemented after the collapse and rebuilding of the financial system might be mandatory electronic fund transfers for things such as paying taxes, utility bills, mortgage as well as insurance and/or rent payments, payments to any local, state or federal agency or contractor as well as any large purchases such as cars, homes, businesses or anything else above an arbitrarily drawn currency amount.
Once these rules and regulations are introduced into the system, most retailers will follow the lead and refuse most or all cash transactions, preferring to use lower cost and more efficient electronic transfers. Expect a higher price or penalty to use cash (which you received when you sold your PMs) to purchase just about anything. Remember that a vibrant black market can only exist if there is a way to launder the proceeds back into the main system or if there is a parallel alternative currency system that fits the needs of the local users. This explains the need for drug and organized crime money to blaze a trail into the official money system. I have faith the new Ponzi will open that door for their own purposes.
Throughout history the key to forcing the public to accept new monetary and currency systems is to demand that all payments to the false sovereign master be made in the new script and/or using the new method of payment. This has the effect of forcing people to adopt the new system, thus validating it. Wide spread use by the general population for all their financial business usually quickly follows. The oldest tricks are still the best tricks from the (global) Ponzi point of view.
This will have a two pronged effect on the system, washing out any chance of laundering larger quantities of our Gold by using it for large purchases and more effectively binding the indentured servant and wage slave to the new currency system. If the slave gets too mouthy and begins to complain, just cause a few problems with his or her electronic payment system and watch them quickly buckle. After all, we all have to eat now don’t we? Never let a crisis go to waste, especially when you are creating it in the first place.
So how will the End Game play out?
The answer is surely in doubt
When all fiat dies
Will sound money rise
Or will all assets suffer a rout?
(The Limerick King)
This is one of the reasons I feel Silver will be more usable as an alternative unit of currency if this global collapse does transpire. Hopefully Silver is incorporated into any new national/global currency as part of its backing, for this will lend tremendous credibility to using Silver in alternative barter/currency systems. Silver throughout the ages has always been used as money and not necessarily as a store of substantial wealth.
This is why you might consider purchasing 1964 and earlier Silver U.S. coins, junk or not. It is important that we incorporate flexibility and diversification into our wealth transfer vehicles as this is the key to successfully crossing over. To assume, hope really, that our one and only method, that of Gold, will be successful is wishful thinking at best and foolhardy at worst. For the masters, Gold is a well known and understood escape mechanism and it will not be allowed to pass totally untouched. We must be different from the masses in order to survive while still being transparent enough that we don’t draw unwanted attention.
And that, in my opinion, is the more realistic path to dry land in this global disaster scenario. The worst thing that you and I can do when preparing for tough times is to develop a severe case of tunnel vision and focus only on our Golden boat as the exit strategy. The bottom line is that we must try to own the same assets that will be owned and transferred by the financial elite and their henchmen and puppets.
While one of those assets will most definitely be Gold, it will not be their only asset or their most valuable. While some of these elite alternative asset classes are out of our reach because of our much smaller stash, and there is little we can do to combat the planned inequalities that will be built into any new system, that doesn’t mean we are helpless or that it is hopeless.
On the contrary, just as the elite see the coming chaos as the perfect time to rape, rob and steal, I see it as ushering in a generational opportunity to build family and community ties like never before. And maybe, just maybe, begin to do some of the hard work we need to do within. Just because we are being buffeted by the fierce rain and wind squalls that precede the hurricane doesn’t mean we can’t use this to our advantage.
However, if we see everything through fearful eyes and with great trepidation we are going to drop the ball and hurt ourselves worse than if we had done nothing. Regardless of what the bad guys did or will do, if we aren’t right within we will wind up harming ourselves much worse than they ever could.
And so this all leads directly to my final thoughts, including one I have shared many times before and which can never be repeated too often. Over the years I have found that regardless of my heartfelt desire for a positive outcome or the gentle and considerate methods used, if my intent and motives are not honest or if I’m not honest with myself or others regarding them, rarely is the outcome to my satisfaction.
Bottom line, this isn’t about the bad guys or their enablers, their greed and lawlessness or even what is right or just. This is about me and my motives and how square I am with myself and others. Just because others lie, cheat and steal doesn’t mean I must follow suit in the name of staying alive or even to justify keeping my head above water. What this isn’t about is sugar plums and fairy tales or holding hands and singing Kumbaya. This is about developing our own Karma and being true to ourselves.
To those who seek power and greed
It will soon be your hour of need
What good is your gold?
When you’re hungry and cold
And the price for some flour is seed
(The Limerick King)
So it is with great concern that I have noticed a disturbing trend among the articles and comments posted of late. I have been a ZH contributor for two years now and I watched the discussions about Gold begin as one of several ways to protect our assets. This conversation began way back when Gold was still largely out of favor even here on Zero Hedge. And I have slowly seen it morph into a widely accepted concept of wealth protection as more and more began to see without a doubt that we are on a collision course with history. There is nothing wrong with this and I have no real problem with it.
But lately sentiment has changed from preserving wealth to growing wealth. And now I am beginning to detect the next stage of the emotional escalation. I am hearing greed and wanton self interest along with the self satisfied chuckle of the prospect of both making a killing and of being proven right when everyone else told us we were wrong. I am hearing the sound of avarice and lust, of rationalization and justification, of outsized egos and very little perspective.
Tunnel vision can take many forms and can strike the best and the worst with the same crushing blow. I have no intention of being self righteous or of calling the kettle black when this pot can be even blacker. That is not the purpose or intent of this essay because there is no denying that I have also felt the seductive tug of jackpot thinking. But when our motive for holding Gold and Silver is distorted and warped by greed and self interest, so is our thinking and perspective.
Which means that if there comes a time when the best move forward is to sell most of the Gold and move on to another asset class, one more likely to survive the transition intact, will we be able to see this as obvious and a no brainer? Or by this time will we so blinded by the Golden glow that we become nothing more than obsessed slaves kneeling in prayer to the almighty God of Gold, seeing nothing but our beloved promised land?
I hope not! From my point of view our most valuable asset is, and will continue to be, an open and flexible mind.
When all markets finally go bust
From our greed induced hubris and lust
To whom do we turn?
What skills should we learn?
It's all just a matter of trust
(The Limerick King)
11-21-2011
Cognitive Dissonance
Special thanks to The Limerick King for his wonderfully apropos limericks. It is an insult to describe the process of condensing complex subjects into 5 lines of prose as ‘writing’. The term ‘stupid good talent’ just begins to scratch the surface of what The Limerick King has to offer. Thank you TLK.
I also wish to thank Dagny Taggart for the ongoing and wonderfully diverse conversation that always leads to further inspiration. Thank you Dagny.
PS: For those who just can’t get enough of The Limerick King, below please find some more of his work that I just couldn’t fit in. Momma always told me never waste a single morsel of The Limerick King.
On the day when the fan meets the shit
And the Kleptos have taken a hit
Will gold save the day?
As all wealth fades away?
I suspect that those bastards won't quit
Do Oligarchs ever retire?
Do they ever just lose their desire?
Does their job ever suck?
Do they ever feel stuck?
Is there ever a Klepto for hire?
I'm glad that I followed my gut
My gold makes me feel like King Tut
But what will I do
Should a riot ensue?
Will a Kilo bar fit up my butt???
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There are still laws enacted that may cause an undesirable reaction.
http://www.criminalgovernment.com/docs/enemy.html
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Great and thought provoking essay. However it seems to have one missing element. All the prognostication seems to assume a complacent and docile citizenry. Where as in fact, a sizeable majority of the population may be just that way, there is also a significant portion of the population who are armed to the teeth and at some point will put up resistance. The US population is the most heavily armed population in history, and if it should turn on the TPTB, would be amazingly affective, just like the original armed populace when the country broke ties with England in 1776. The British did warfare in marching collumns of men and the American revolutunaries hid behind trees and picked them off one by one.
When TPTB decide to go after the guns, they will do so and probably be successful at it for a while. In any case, almost 500 million guns and untold amounts of ammunition spread around the huge geographical area of the United States might just be a huge obstacle to the ability of TPTB to carry out any of their plans. Don't forget, in 1933 there was hardly any disenchantment with the gov. Now, the awakening is so huge, it's almost impossible to find anyone who doesn't at least see a part of what's going on. And Ron Paul is now on top of the wave, his rhetoric will serve to wake up people as never before. Even the most dense of the Sheeple are going to get a glimmer.
Great look at possibilities. We need more of this kind of writing. Thanks, CD.
Until the majority of Americans realize what really happened on 9/11, there is no awakening. Americans still get their "news" from the msm/tv. That's not likely to change in the foreseeable future.
If TPTB control the media and also don't want us to have gold, then why is talk radio pushing gold so hard? Don't get me wrong. I know they do control it, but how is it to their advantage now to encourage gold buying? Should we be concerned about owning gold because we are being told to buy it by Rush, Hannity and Beck?
Arguments against confiscation:
Everything you say is true, but confiscation is problematical and unnecessary in countries with enough gold to back their fiat. If they need more, they can just tax our gold. I think you are dead on regarding central bank setting the price of gold worldwide. Of course, that would only work if the price is set at a realisticly high price, but again, driving up the price of gold to devalue paper is the game this time around so it will work. International agreements to track and tax gold purchases might not be sustainable, because countries have an incentive to cheat and invite individuals to come to their shores to cash in their physical for paper.
I think you are dead on with the advice not to put all your eggs in one basket. Gold will be useless during the barter stage. People won't know how much it's worth. Silver, because it's worth less, will be quickly accepted for trade. Silver is also likely to appreciate even more than gold over the long term.
PS: Devaluation means everything is immediately underpriced. Stocks will ramp to the sky as they did in 1934. The problem with cashing out of gold for stocks is that adjustments to gold prices will continue as they tinker with the economy (as they did in the 30s). Also, as the very bright TMosley pointed out the other day, replacement currencies oftentimes fail (sometimes repeatedly). Pick up some stocks here and there but don't completely cash out and be the first to put trust in the new currency.
Cognitive Dissonance,
Sometimes with all the noise I have trouble thinking clearly, as your name implies.
Thank you for the thought experiment.
The dollar says, "In God We Trust"
But the dollar's about to go bust
So who betrayed whom
That has led to our doom?
(Twas the one who embraced greed and lust)
(The Limerick King)
Its out and out blasphemy to have the words “In God We Trust” on the FIAT note that is not trustworthy at all. It proves beyond question, that the FED does not believe in God yet expects us to follow blindly.
The Limerick King,
Thank you for radiating light in darkness.
Golden regards,
Badabing
Two Nostradamus Qutrains:
VIII 14The great credit of gold and abundance of silver
VIII 28will cause honor to be blinded by lust;
the offense of the adulterer will become known,
which will occur to his great dishonor.
The copies of gold and silver inflated,
which after the theft were thrown into the lake,
at the discovery that all is exhausted and dissipated by the debt.
All scrips and bonds will be wiped out.
I keep coming back to the fact that no matter how much of a fat cat Mr Gilette is, if Joe six pack can't afford to shave then where's the wealth, where's the fortune? These guys want normalcy, they can't build a big enough moat to stop social disintegration effecting them (negatively). To think that they are engineering decay, and Gold is a panacea, is fraudulent to my mind. It presumes collusion when these bastards are frothingly competitive. Realise the assumptions being made, and consider that in Japan, where deflation is rampant, the banks are all still there and its the government that is flushed every two years. Who really wants inflation (the secret tax)? Who is gunning for gold? Who will ramp it up and then take it? Not house to house that's silly, just police the points of transaction for necessary staples like food. Just sayin, think twice. Lots of shit going on.
I enjoyed reading part one and two, thanks CD. We do not live in a free country(USA) I already feel like we live in a semi police state with so many law enforcement officers everywhere I turn and more and more federal laws, state laws and local ordinances. Cameras everywhere...... I don't own any gold....but I do live in the country and can live self sufficiently. Establishing community is important. I trade and barter with my neighbors and don't have need to go to the grocery store much at all. If it all came crashing down we can produce our own food have water sources and heating/cooking sources...what concerns me more would be security...especially with the militarization of our police forces.
We have firearms for protection and dogs that protect the rabbit and chicken coops at night but our fire power is minimal compared to a militarized police force.
We keep a very low profile and can appear to some as having nothing of worth....
Anyway I would not want to live in a big city as things start to sour.
For those who want to do a little more to be self sufficient visit... www.motherearthnews.com is a good starting point.
Peace
Last night my 21 year old son was asking me about the state of affairs in our world.
I told him that as of late the frequency of black swans were appearing faster and faster.
I have just printed out your article and will give it to him today.
We have already set up a communal vegetable garden for us and our neighbors.
It will be a hard go, but together we will prevail.
Good luck to you, CD
My folks always told me that education was everything. They can steal your wealth, your house, even the clothes off your back in a disaster, but nobody can ever steal your knowledge and skills. Like a lot of people these days, I'm having fun learning new skills for use in such a disasterous scenario, hopefully never to be needed. So I understand your laboured argument about gold.
As for the (lack of) differences between natural and economic disasters, I think you're spot on. If push comes to shove, WE, the millions of us apes, are going to be the natural disaster that takes everything down and destroys all the services that support modern life. Probably the best way to preserve the infrastructure and frontline services will be to force everyone to stay in their homes during the economic collapse perhaps even cull a few million to lessen the burden on services. What better way to do that than a deadly and easily transmitted flu outbreak?
Edit PS I am not espousing such measures, just putting the latest news about the dubious research on swine flu with the inevitable economic collapse staring us in the face.
The most important professional skill in the event of a breakdown will be a steam engineer. Anyone who can design, construct and operate a steam boiler and engine can provide a community with transportation, heat, and most importantly, electricty (refrigeration, movie night, communications, mechanized farming, hot tubs with the peasant girls, you name it.)
When we are talking survival skills, experts on edible plants are a dime a dozen, hot houses in the winter are priceless.
very good article, respect for your insights! you also pointed out the most important aspect of all for success in the coming cataclysm: personal integrity and character. since this very point is the place where the powers that are pierced their meat-hook and draged mankind behind their schemes for all of history. our ego's will be our doom, has always been doom for men and the more we take our egos under our feet and develop character, the more successfull we will be able to handle any chaos or social armageddon that will eventually come upon us.
I guess the powermongers of last resort, who try to set up their thousand years heavenly kingdom of enslavement for their servants and paradise on earth for their own kind will fail in the end, because their concept has a flaw: you can control men through his ego, but only because men himself surrenders his will to his ego in order to attain worldly desires in the first place. and this "original ponzi" only works because men is not aware of his own. When a time comes and the servant wakes up and realizes that he served others by falling victim to his ego (i.e. the fear of hunger or anything else that makes us think we need the "system"), that day will not only men free himself from his ego, but will men destroy the reign of the "chosen few" who sold their soul for this ball of rubbish we live on......let's hope that this happens sooner than later
Yeahh... realistic possibilities .. for ex as delineated .. are ... frightening ..indeed. Some other possibilities not quite so much . I find one thing characteristic .. or better .. symptomatic in the visions forwarded .
There is all the time a talk about " THEY " . They do this , they do implement that ,
WHO are " THEY " ?
And there is a tone of FINALITY underlying the sentences that "THEY" already can DO .. almost what "THEY" want As if such a state of affairs has to be accepted as the prevailing state of how society IS ... NOW .....
But I understand the pesimism .. in weaker moments I share it myself . And considering the IRONY that there is MORE FREEDOM in RUSSIA today compared to the USA , which has created a VAST APARATUS for SURVEILLANCE and SUBJUGATION of its citicens ... i truly understand ... the Authors perceptions and conclusions .
This is WHY ..it i so important ..for AMERICANS ... to support people like JULIAN ASSANGE ... like NAOMI WOLF .. like THE ANTI WALL STREET MOVEMENT .... and not being american ... I am sure there are many others ! to STAND UP IN DEFENCE of that CONSTITUTION which once was THE JUSTIFIED PRIDE OF ANY AMERICAN ..and which has been THROD UNDER THE HEEL ... by an increasingly assertive dictatorial POLITICO - FINANCIAL COMPLEX . In these days .. the US needs people like the recently deseased czeck HAVEL ... some SOLSENITCHINS .. and that long row of people in East Europe ..who had the GUTS and MORAL CHARACTER to stand up against a seemingly owerwhelming POWER . NOTHING LESS will SAVE the United States of America !
Aren't we just slowly getting crushed by the deficit, the growth of the government, the erosion of our rights, the arbitrary enforcement of ever-more-expensive rules and regulations? They don't need or want a collapse; they're slowly and successfully grinding us into serfs anyway.
T.H.E.Y. have perfected draining the wealth out of the system. If the society collapses, who will make the palaces and Gulfstreams, exotic appurtenances and crazy wristwatches and Swarovski dildos?
Better to keep the proles toiling and treading water than to dispossess them entirely. Dispossessed people tend to instigate counter-revolution; toiling proles continue manning the help lines and trying to pay for little Timmy's operation.
CD
I can see another possibility that is not nearly as gloomy as yours. For obvious reasons the government of the day will want to stimulate a moribund economy yet they will not want to do so in an inflationary way. This could be achieved by literally buying gold from the citizens at the new exchange rate - whatever it is set at. Likely the price will be somewhere north of US$50,000 per ounce. The money issued by the government would not be inflationary because it would be 100% gold backed. It could be even more stimulatory if it were to be declared to be a tax free transaction, leaving the seller with even more money to spend into the economy. It might not even be limited to citizens only, just to increase the gold pool.
We should be a proactive community selling this vision to the politicians as a way of saving their worthless hides. If it doesn't work we still have our preperations done but if it does work we get a better outcome or even a good outcome
If they merely pass a law saying you can't sell gold to anyone but a bank, then all physical goes back into the Treasury for worthless fiat that is now backed by gold priced at a fantastic price. YOU JUST DO IT INCREMENTALLY, SO ANYONE CASHING OUT FIST WILL GET SCREWED. People would gladly turn in their jewelry and anything else for gold. It's easy to get the gold into the hands of government through elevated prices when most of the gold is already in banks, it's difficult when you are going off a gold standard and there's gold coins in circulation and at the small regional banks. Rinse and repeat until the new currency is destroyed too, then when all the gold is in government hands, you come out with the true currency.
It's in the government's interest to ramp the price of gold because they are stacking gold. The people will surrender their gold freely. Hell, they are doing so now at 1/2 the price of spot. Trust the public to do the wrong thing at the wrong time.
Best case scenario: Gold is set at $50k, and the printers roll. People rush to cash in and the economy takes off like it did in '34.
Worst case scenario: Gold is set a 25k, and the printers roll. People rush to cash in and the economy takes off like it did in '34.
THEN, Danger Will Robinson!
The currency fails, gold is now set at $50k, they issue another currency, and everybody who cashed in at $25k wonders if the first currency was just a ploy to shake loose all the public's gold.
Beware, this is a another, bigger, Cash in your Jewelry commercial scam. If this process makes you a millionaire, you will have a target on your back and it it's not just confiscation or taxation that you have to worry about.
Thanks CD and LK. More to think about, and I haven't even eaten breakfast yet.
Merry Christmas... and a prosperous New Year!
Really enjoying The Limerick King's contributions interspersed! Keep it up!
1. Roosevelt never had troops go door to door with metal detectors "confiscating" gold. He seized all the gold in the banks and created an executive order saying that the people MUST turn in their gold for $25 an ounce. If that happens again, I'll bury mine underneath the chicken coop.
2. "It's only after we have lost everything that we are free to do anything." Remember where you are.
3. Sour grapes, CD? ;-)
Good essay, on parts one and two I gave you five stars, but I think you are being ruled by your confirmation bias.
An Immodest Proposal
As the lynchpin of perceived societal safety becomes ever more corroded, one must think of the implications for self, God & country. Otherwise dissonance arrives like a sledgehammer once the illusions fade.Certainly it's not in human nature to be prepared for these eventualities, but to be candid we are no longer humans. At least not in the sense of the understood historical narrative. We are something markedly different.
If one were to search for a cultural foundation now, they would meet largely with ass-grabbery, ball-punching, chest-puffing, tablescrap-pilfering and assorted antics of the like. But how is it any different now from moons past? Why is the rot so pervasive as to weaken the very ground on which we stand? And who decides what comes next?
There need be no argument or outlay on the contemporary state of affairs, for it is so profound in its lunacy that even sober minds are calling it the "end times". Displays of imprudence and excess are flaunted like jewels while the scaffoldings of liberty and integrity are denigrated from all sides. And even the very language has turned into Orwellian style to suit Randian sensibilities which is called "progress".
But evaluate where we are, because you are a brick in this kiln of Moloch's tribute where your progeny will surely burn unless we join as one and aspire to something greater. We know something is gravely amiss, we know our official representation has become null and void, we know those cages are meant for us, we starve for justice, divine or otherwise.
No longer is the silk thread of fear and suggestion to bind us as if it were chains.
No longer shall whispers and innuendo replace poetry and lore.
No longer shall vile scrip replace legitimate livelihood.
No longer shall rubbish replace art.
No longer shall slander replace philosophy.
No longer shall ducats replace laws.
No longer shall we be pitted against colors and ideology for distraction while they beat, rob and rape.
No longer. Simply no longer.
Folks, we stand on the precipice of change and cataclysm.
And lo, truthfully there is no option except to jump.
The thunder of our feet will echo to the far corners of the universe. We are coming for them. They have sinned and God has sent us as their punishment. Original work. Copyright waived. Feel free to post, disperse or use.
You slammed that one right out of the park. Please post more often. As we continue to be in the world, but not of the world, reverent and coherent comments like yours can provide some needed inspiration.
Many thanks!
And to everyone else upvoting & providing comments.
I have something of a home under a different moniker on lunaticoutpost.com
But I'll take your kind invitation to heart and make an effort to add to the fine threads here, especially the Cog Dis ones, his WTTIA series was a certain turning point in my life.
Sho Nuff!
It's my birthday!
I feel as though I have just opened my first present by reading your eloquence!
Now, I must go and "pay it forward"!
VERY NICE.
A lot of really good comments. CogDis, your essay is a big success just based on the comments alone. Great thought experiment indeed.
Well stocking up on US nickels is looking better all the time.
Weird things are happening. My brother has a collection of German porcelain "not gold" coins from the 1916 to the 1922 era. They were from banks, companies, and municipalities to meet the shortage of change needed for commerce. Iron, zinc, and paper were also used for this purpose. There not a lot of them and not many survived in collectible condition. He got surprised when he checked up on the valuation though. Since the last time he checked two years ago they inceased in value by a factor of five......
Well, he better sell them then, as their value in the end game will be . . . . .
regarding confiscation of gold. fiat currency deemed
gold and other precious metals commodities, not money.
the gold standard in relation to legal tender and currency were
separated. to confiscate at this time would be just stealing,
again. like taking property or a commodity like food or grain.
an authority could do it but it would be an open declaration that
the authority is a tyrant and enemy of the people. it would not
stand for long if due to to nothing other than its own dreadful
loathing of itself assisted by all sentient beings.
in a strange way the desperate fraud and insanity of the
federal apparatus amounts to reassurance that a better day and
outcome are guaranteed.
They have already openly declared themselves "enemy of the people"....one example is the NDAA law.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=anjT71N4PGM&feature=related
Take Me To The River - Talking Heads
.
"....the river" .. t. heads via al green.
"Take Me to the River" is a 1974 song written by singer Al Green and guitarist Mabon "Teenie" Hodges.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vGD8aQ2GKr0
.
OTTIS REDDING - A CHANGE GONNA COME
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3BKRt010H3k&feature=related
.
sam cooke
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nOYuhLNwh3A&feature=related
.
comment: the river.
another tl;dr about the boogeyman of gold confiscation.
Right, try marijuana confiscation first...oh shit, that's not working. People are just eventually gonna fuckin rebel and not give a shit what the cops say.
But a gd bag of gold rings or something then, sheesh, if you're so scared of losing your bullion coins to the almight government. Or buy gd'd platinum
wont happen under current governments who would be killing the last shred of illusion of "capitalism", "free trade" etc...however, FDR, Hitler and Stalin did it, so who knows what happens once the welfare population loses their free money...
People aren't trying to make dope a viable currency though, are they? (outside of NorCal anyway)
Hi CD
Loved your essay! I appreciate articles that freely speculate, and encourage me to speculate for myself. "Facts" are valuable only to show what's already happened and too late to change.
I agree with the many comments here who say you tend to overestimate the power of TPTB to control things. I think you have it right re: their hubris, their evil intent, and their criminal corruption, and I think you have it right re: the amount of damage they will inflict on the rest of us. That's what organised crime does, doesn't it? We're dealing with an enormous, global class of organised crime. But throughout history there has also been an overwhelmingly huge underclass of peasants, the proles as Orwell called us, and as a mass we cannot be successfully micromanaged.
TPTB will never have the SHEER NUMBERS of "the rest of us" - those of us who just want to live quiet lives, whose goal is not to Rule The World but to protect Me And Mine. Our goal is much more achievable for us, than theirs is for them. They have a million spinning plates to watch. They can only pick off here and there - punish 1 as An Example to 100,000. For each of us, our essential survival strategy should not be Revolution but 1) to avoid notice and 2) undermine the system in small ways from under cover. The easiest way to do this is to learn to stay hidden, trust carefully, learn to be self-sufficient and as mobile as possible. Learn to cut losses. Learn to defeat the herd instinct.
I know, specifically, who is on the Me & Mine list. THEY are my job, and no-one else. Our gold & silver are NOT for during the Dark Time, and I don't care if that means we hold it for another 20 years. Our PMs are for AFTER that time passes, when we can trust society enough to invest in a house, which by then WE will in fact own and not pay rent to the government for (that means NO home "ownership" as long as there are property taxes payable). When our society is no longer headed by criminals. In whichever country that will turn out to be.
We sometimes add to our small stash of PMs, as and when we can, fully prepared that at some point we will no longer be able to. We are working on some fake identity papers, for when the criminal government starts trying to keep a blacklist of those who keep their wealth safe & hidden (i.e., gold/silver owners). We keep our physical "possessions" as light as possible, and nothing that is too heavy to move quickly or unable to be left behind at short notice. Our whole focus is coming out at the OTHER side of the Dark Time alive, and with our wealth (gold/silver) intact.
As for bringing down the corrupt system - it's simple if not easy. Billions of proles, each not participating/undermining the system in a small way. Learn NOT to participate, learn how to disguise, how to evade, and how to hide. We are learning to make our own clothes, we cut our own hair, we know how to grow food. We don't 'shop' at 'Christmas'. We do not 'own' anything except for a very portable, well-hid stash. We 'own' no property that can be taxed, overrun, or searched, and if we need a car we temporarily hire one. We keep almost nothing in a bank. We give them NO uncoerced information, on ourselves or anyone else. We do have a growing pile of fiat (no coins, well hidden in our home), and THAT is for getting through the Dark Time itself. For now, we keep our credit cards in good standing just in case (balance-free most of the time, except for 2-3 months each year when we deliberately carry a substantial balance to keep the PTB happy). The goal in this is, for as long as possible, to appear to participate and not look as though gold has ever occurred to us.
It's not a perfect strategy, but over time it will develop. In the meantime, I am confident that the growing Black Market among my very large family (large family spread over 2 countries) will continue to evolve and, as the government cracks down more, our family group will be evolving to need them less and less. Meanwhile, we are hoping to fade away enough, and concentrant on learning enough 'workarounds', that our door will be pretty far down the list that the soldiers kick down in the middle of the night. Well, that's how we're preparing for the End Game anyway.
"We give them NO uncoerced information, on ourselves or anyone else"
Unless you are accessing this site through an anon proxy, or perferable a proxy plus the TOR button, you are giving them more information than you could ever imagine.
Every google search you have ever made is listed next to your name.
Every website you have ever visited is listed next to your name.
Every email you have ever sent is, you guessed it, on file and listed next to your name.
Every phone call, every text message. On file.
Stalin had wet dreams about the levels of surveillance .gov has today.
New technology allows facial recognition to now work on low res cctv images, even when the subject does not look directly at the camera. All old cctv footage is stored. Should they need to, they can input your face, and in London now, they can track your every movement FOR THE LAST 10 YEARS. Not what you are doing now, but everything you have done since cctv went up. This is not a paranoid rant. This is fact, it even got news coverage, in the vein of: "New tech makes cites safer" etc. It is being rolled out as we speak.
This tech is only going to get faster, more sophisticated and more common.
That's what I meant by 'uncoerced' - I can't stop them spying, I can't stop them demanding info through power of law.
What I can do is make them look for everything (as opposed to volunteering it, along the "See Something Say Something" lines), and I can make what they find as confusing and contradictory as possible.
For example, when I make on online ID, I don't always give correct information. I do have to give certain names and addresses, location info, but the contact info is always of a temporary kind. If asked for preferences - like which language do I use - I'll say, Greek (for example), and so when ads popping up on my screen are in Greek, I know at least there's some misinformation out there.
You are right that we are very spied upon. But the sheer overwhelming volume of information they have to collect this way, especially when not all of it is correct, is not very easy for "them" to control. You don't have to look very far for examples of leviathon government bureaucracy, trying to manage all this minutiae, where the right hand doesn't know what the left is doing...this is why central planning tends to fail.
I guess I'm trying to say, we know we are spied upon. We shouldn't try to escape or deny it - but try to incorporate this as far as we can into what we CAN do. Just being spied upon, doesn't necessarily mean we have to be caught, and we can do our own information-gathering/spying as well, collecting information through sites like this one. (I know that probably sounds naive to you.) Iit's sort of like an "open tail" - much easier to take evasive action when we know it's going on, then when we don't or when we are so foolish as to trustfully co-operate.
That said...I am not a fan of cell phones, social networking, "Facebook" or anything that seems like it is just asking us to give out free information, where I am not collecting at least an equal amount of info (as in this site, for example). For any website, we should really judge whether the visit is "worth" the risk in terms of the information we get back...
Oh, and...95% of my life does not happen online, or in ANY public area at all. It wouldn't be so hard to retire back into that, although I'd certainly miss all the information on sites like this one.
i don't think they will attempt to confiscate any metals here. there just isn't that much out there to worry with it. if the truth was known, i wonder just how much money are we talking about here comparitively speaking of course to the debts we have etc etc etc........now sure, safety deposit boxes.......i think anyone that keeps their stuff there, today after all that has happened is asking for big trouble. there is no way i would ever keep anything there. now sure, they can confiscate that. but doing house to house searches etc..........ain't going to happen..........too much trouble.
metals are a TINY fraction of assets, hardly worth trying to round up and confiscate. If they do anything it will be oppressive taxation regimes on everything. But people will just start cheating on them like they already do. Greece is a case study in this, as are most 2nd world and below countries.
The public has a way of finding an acceptable level of taxation versus what they receive. If the gov't goes jackboots a lot of people will just start working under the table. There's already a large segment that has checked out of organized society and flat doesn't give a fuck. WTF is jail gonna do? Once people lose that fear, the gov has nothing. The rules only work for people bought into the system.
The drug market is presently zillions of dollars, far larger than the gold market, yet drugs trade every single day. There are entire industries of people willing to risk lengthy incarceration to trade. In several states and DC, certain drugs have been entirely decriminalized. Banks a decade ago had tens of billions of drug monies sitting in their accounts.
if shit goes Detroilet, do you REALLY think the police are going to show up to round up fuckin gold when they DON'T respond to burglaries? If anything, the concern in such a situation is forfeiture and shakedowns. However, as is seen in 3rd world countries, heavy weapons check the police and there are already no-go zones in even the 1st world in some places.
The only thing that holds the law is those who abide by it. How many of you know ANYONE in your lives who is by the letter? Everyone plays pretend and cheats every chance they get because the system has become unreasonable.
Excessively wordy people like CD don't GET the zeitgeist that follows when people who go along with the system because the system promised them something wake up to a reality that the promises won't be delivered. Why the fuck should anyone continue to pay in and go along with it when everything that was on their end of the bargain is taken away? If you are bought in to a future that is taken away, everyone says fuckit.
The way things work in the 3rd world, in collapsed countries...no seizures. Highway robbery, police home invasions, brutality, etc., but mass roundups house to house invite vicious responses. Who are they going to go after, really? A few fucking people who own some krugerrands or a TON of people who have drugs and piles of cash?
If there is door-to-door it will be for the high value shit and those people will retaliate. Hell, among the people here, who wouldn't retaliate if the gov't stole everything they owned and condemned their children to a life of starvation? WTF would anyone have to lose? The police know they aren't bulletproof. The army can't be everywhere. Vandalism is frighteningly effective. They build it, you burn it down. If a gov't has to balance its budget, it has to reassess its heavyhandedness right quickly when this starts to occur.
Think about it. The police cars are parked sometimes. If enough of them are placed out of commission, the police function degrades rapidly because materiel takes time to replace, even longer by a cash-starved government. Do not underestimate how intractable those who thought they were bought into something become when that future is ripped away from them.
Everyone thinks their neighbor is gonna snitch? How long is that neighbor going to live? People like CD just don't seem to get the difference between the law abiding and the non- because he is STILL bought into this matrix he talks about. Unplug yourself for a moment from restraint. Imagine a snitch neighbor. Just like in the 'hood...the popo is the enemy. What happens to people like that?
Best comment I've seen you write in a long time Trav. Thanks for investing your considerable ability.
And that, boys and girls, is why tax revenues are falling. When the collapse comes, they will drop vertically. That will make government desperate for revenue of any sort.
I liked CD's articles, and I liked your reply too trav. I spend most of my life surrounded by people i consider fucking idiots....its tiring. Always good to come somewhere where i can be the idiot, and others can school me, rather than visa versa.
Fuck brains or brawn...... curiosity is the best of all human traits.
The most powerful thing anybody can ever say: Why?
+ 1
Nice comment trav.
amen and amen...........
CD's piece actually worked the way he intended, Trav. It brought you out of the woodwork for some very cogent and relevant thoughts. Congrats on your comments. All of what you say is true to some degree or another, but CD's thoughts are relevant as well. Just as the disassociation of society will be fragmented from State to State, and County to County, so will be the circumstances of our misery. Both your and CD's scenarios will be true for someone.
I agree, despite the differences in perception, no matter what happens, team work and savvy will at the end of the day keep most of us alive. Superman is not going to save any of us.
In addition to the above, I am 100% sure that most of us acquire gold and silver in order to use when our survival will depend on it (or at the least to preserve our wealth), it is not to stand with big dicks in hand and to shout: "We're invincible!" This however doesn't mean that we won't rejoice when the status quo changes, and those who have chosen to ignore and ridicule us, have to face the severest of consequences due to their stupidity (or whatever the reason might be). When the current system collapses, we will rather die clinging to honest money and what it represents than sucking up to any tyrannical government (or the puppets it control). And yes, gold and silver are not nutritional, but history has proven that at some stage or another the guy with the potatoes will have to exchange it for honest money or risk seeing his potatoes going to rot. And yes, having gold and silver alone cannot and will not save anyone, it is just a small part of the plan of salvation that can be found in a truthful translation of God's Word. God is opening a window of opportunity, we need to grab it with both hands and teeth. Therefore, God willing, some of us will bring gold and silver (honest money) to the table, some will bring guns to the table, some will bring ammunition to the table, some will bring food to the table, some will bring a combination of these goods/items to the table, etc. What are you going to bring to the table or are you going to suck up to a tyrannical government when the chickens come home to roost?
speaking of resistance. if any of you remeber that situation with the so-called hutaree militia. if you remember , supposedly they were infiltrated by a fbi agent and then they were entrapped and then they were arrested . now we find out the entire thing was one big fbi operation done to make anyone doing this kind of stuff, look bad, similar to what happened in 1993 .............i always wondered why the entire bunch was cut loose by the judge in that case so fast........hmmm.... nobody went to jail. the judge threw the case out.............interesting, no?
This comment is confusing since the militia are about to go on trial and one of the militia members plead guilty to his firearms charge last month. Another who claimed an FBI conspiracy was found mentally unfit to stand trial and also believed that the FBI was preventing him from marrying some random woman.
Excellent historical review. IMO, the US$ will remain the world's currency because of the US military air, land and sea power which no one will challenge for many years. Thats the reason the congress passed the bloated trillion dollar military budget yesterday w/o dissent. As long as the Saudis price their oil in $s and the US protects the Saudis we can run trillion dollar deficits. Oil is the world's largest commodity. Obama will be reelected and the dems will largely be in control until Hillary is elected. Domestically, all assets will be taxed annually and private ownership of housing will be under attack by environmental permit and inspection laws. But there will not be a financial collaspe.