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Goldman, Blackstone, Glencore and Facebook. What do they have in common? They all sold the Top.

thetrader's picture





 

By www.thetrader.se

Another no volume, no action day added. People have been busy buying lately, and volatility has collapsed. We are hearing the Goldilocks scenario about to unfold, while junior quants are telling us “time to sell vol”. Whatever one thinks of the market, please review what the market did did after the Real Smart Money sold. In 99 Goldman Sachs went public, in 2007 Blackstone went public, in June 2011, Glencore went public. This time, Facebook might just be selling the Top. On the other hand, many think “this time is different”….

 


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Fri, 02/03/2012 - 01:13 | Link to Comment El Gordo
El Gordo's picture

People still buy stocks?

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 22:39 | Link to Comment hairball48
hairball48's picture

What happens to Facebook after  the SHTF and all the kids are broke?

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 20:59 | Link to Comment ReactionToClose...
ReactionToClosedMinds's picture

all the love for 'tech' IPOs ..... Google et al ... are you really that naive? 

Oil companies, which went through a bear cycle of 15 years+ in the 1980s thgroiugh mid90s barely making money except for the most disciplined best like Exxon ... but Apple can't take your money fast enough . Maybe Jim Jones was just an honest business person the way so many here want to drink the 'altruistic' tech kool-aid.

I left tech because sometimes it seemed more than half of it was phoney baloney hype, non-stop bamboozling the 'not smart enough' public ....... but 'tech' is 'good' & can be 'trusted' unlike (take your pick ... sheesh!

Google .. they just monetize your privacy away every little bit of the data mining, market research selling, step of the way.  Go ahead, keep using google for search ..... and see where it gets you ....

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 20:53 | Link to Comment newengland
newengland's picture

'They all sold the Top.'

Damn right. Another blunt statement from ZH which talks facts, not propaganda.

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 19:46 | Link to Comment dhussey
dhussey's picture

Ironic that I just saw an Obama ad on zerohedge...

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 21:50 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

Thought those ads were my demonic schizophrenia acting up so I never mentioned them.

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 23:14 | Link to Comment espirit
espirit's picture

Google and IE both mine data from your pc to provide ad content to visited web pages.

Hmmm, why do I get those popups for albino albanian hookers instead of O'bummer?

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 19:29 | Link to Comment jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

Always IPO or do equity raises near the top.  Oldest rule in the book :)

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 20:46 | Link to Comment Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

All that the IPO's do anymore is to allow people in the loop and banks to make quick cash when they sell.  Look at all the rest of the IPO's that have been issued last year, they started to sell as soon as they left the gate.

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 19:28 | Link to Comment hawks5999
hawks5999's picture

are these peaks on their filing date or on the issue date?

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 19:24 | Link to Comment dhussey
dhussey's picture

People... ELECTION YEAR... Market is not going to tumble until the NEXT guy tosses Bernanke out of FED... Trend is up until its not... JUST BUY THE FREAKING DIP...

0 Volume all the way from 666... that hasnt stopped it form retracing over 70% of the decline...

Bears will sell it the whole way up, and bulls buy it the whole way down... WAY to many people still BEARISH US stocks and EURO and RISK in general for us to collapse... 1340 will happen... then 1500's... then lets talk about a sizable correciton... 

The economy is not the market- contrary to popular belief- its going to do what its technical setups allow- and LONGS have been in charge since 666... Even now- we couldnt breakdown 1317's today... like it or not- for now- the trend is up...

 

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 19:36 | Link to Comment dhussey
dhussey's picture

2012 looks and feels more like 96 and 2004 election years... 2000 major market top adn 2008 marjor bottom- NOTHIGN in media or market dynamics are as EXTREME as they were in 00 and 08 to signal a major top with this election...  Its going to be a continuatin of trend- just like in 96 and 2004

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 23:26 | Link to Comment jeff montanye
Thu, 02/02/2012 - 19:30 | Link to Comment dhussey
dhussey's picture

Regardless- buy those Facbook put spreads up- there is going to be volatilty no matter what...

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 19:19 | Link to Comment sgt_doom
sgt_doom's picture

Thanks for reminding us about Blackstone Group going public --- now why don't they pay the corporate income tax rate???

Oh, that's right, they paid off some congress critters and because they claim to sell "common units" instead of common stock, they can continue to be taxed at capital gains rate!

Ain't corruption grand??????

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 22:00 | Link to Comment algol_dog
algol_dog's picture

Funny, but for some dumb reason I always remember that goofy Cramer, in which he said about Blackstone going public, "you should do what they would do. Sell it ..."

Ties in to that same kind of sentiment "thetrader's" article is pointing out ~

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 18:25 | Link to Comment SystemsGuy
SystemsGuy's picture

Facebook is going into an IPO at a time when they have a large and rich competitor who can afford to lose money on their Facebook-like offering (GooglePlus) simply to bleed the marketshare from Facebook, has a better ad monetization strategy, and owns their own browser and mobile platform that's taking down everyone else in the space. Given that, the idea that Facebook's fortunes are going to go anywhere but down are ludicrous. The Facebook IPO will almost certainly be the highwater market for this cycle (which seem to be coming closer and closer, a most ominous development).

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 19:29 | Link to Comment dhussey
dhussey's picture

Yea- but facebook has one thing GOOG doesnt:

Social Media Clients... and those clients are BEYOND addicted to their current social media outlet...  Think anyone is ever going to say GooglePlus me? Nope...

I will bet anything, Facebook branches out to compete with GOOG on several other markets before GOOG is able to bring Facebook to its knees... 

 

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 20:51 | Link to Comment Common_Cents22
Common_Cents22's picture

The kids are key.  Watch the kids.  I just heard a report that more and more kids are going to twitter for more privacy.  They don't want to be on something where their parents can now spy.

FB is pretty entrenched but many thought MySpace was too.

Half FB traffic is on mobile?   No ads on mobile.  

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 23:30 | Link to Comment dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

and many of these 'users' are just fanpages and cat profiles.. would be nice to know the avg profiles per user..  might make that user base a 3rd or at least a half of that 800 million

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 22:26 | Link to Comment Ness.
Ness.'s picture

Be cafeful of the mobile.  

A pretty disturbing precedent being set in the land of Obama.  

A prominent High School confiscating student's cellphones to check their text messages and their contacts.  The kids will adjust and find other ways to communicate.  

 

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/ct-met-stevenson-drug-probe-20120202,0,1472927.story

 

 

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 18:35 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

Down indeed. Facebook makes approximately $4 a user now. The IPO values each user at $120. How anyone doing even the minimal due diligence can reconcile those numbers is beyond me.

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 18:16 | Link to Comment sidkof
sidkof's picture

my buddy's step-sister makes $68/hour on the internet. She has been without work for 8 months but last month her paycheck was $7255 just working on the internet for a few hours. Go to this web site and read more.. LazyCash9.com

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 23:20 | Link to Comment espirit
espirit's picture

Anybody can talk trash and make a buck with a webcam, the step-scum must only show from the neck down.

Hey, you proved that.

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 22:39 | Link to Comment Axenolith
Axenolith's picture

'Cause your buddies step sister has a $35 web camera, a box of candles and English cucumbers, hole lube and an IQ of 28.  By the time she cashes out from that, eggs will need to epoxy themselves to the side of her uterus and infants will emerge on a fast rope...

Loser...

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 22:18 | Link to Comment Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

sifkof. . . douchebag says what?

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 21:08 | Link to Comment jwoop66
jwoop66's picture

does she do a donkey show?

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 20:26 | Link to Comment Cruel Aid
Cruel Aid's picture

Ahole, nobody is going to click your link.

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 18:36 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

Hey Sidkof. Shove your spam up your ass. Go play on the Yahoo message boards.

 

 

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 18:11 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

Well, Facebook better hurry or they may find themselves attempting to IPO into an imploding market.

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 18:10 | Link to Comment Sutton
Sutton's picture

The shysters at Blackrock timed it the best.

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 18:03 | Link to Comment AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

not really....

partners sold when they wanted the last bubble to pop up their shares.

IPO --> massive financial bubble with captured congress --> cash out at the top --> put a new naive face in your place --> you win and don't get the blame.

it is not their money so who cares.

 

tech is little different....founders/owners love tech and have nothing else to do so have longer term outlook.

google founders agreed to work together for 20 years after IPO.

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 17:53 | Link to Comment MrBoompi
MrBoompi's picture

This time is always different, until the same thing happens.

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 17:51 | Link to Comment Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

thats why i have always liked Google

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 19:48 | Link to Comment Manthong
Manthong's picture

I hear it's lonely at the top.

Does that mean there are no friends there?

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