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Graham Summers’ Weekly Market Forecast (Crash Time Edition)

Phoenix Capital Research's picture



The market onslaught of the last week is now staging a snap-back
rally. As I write this Sunday evening the S&P 500 has pushed to
1,143 in the futures markets. This was to be expected as we’d come up
against the neckline for the Head and Shoulders pattern I noted the last
two weeks:

a larger perspective, 1,110 is a line of MAJOR support. The S&P 500
spent a major portion of 2010 at this level. It’s also the level at
which the S&P 500 staged its last bounce before entering the 2008

So this is THE line to watch in stocks. Once we take it out, we’re
going to 1,000 in short order. By the look of things, it won’t be long.

Indeed, last week we got a confirmed SELL on my proprietary Crash
indicator. This is the SAME indicator that registered before the 1987
Crash, the Tech Crash, and the 2008 collapse.

It's just triggered again... which means that last week’s sell off is JUST the beginning of what's coming.

Yes, the GREAT COLLAPSE has begun. The markets will be going to new lows (below the March 2009 lows) in the coming months.

We're also going to be seeing major banks go under, market crashes, food shortages, government shutdowns, and SYSTEMIC FAILURE.

Yes, I believe that before this mess ends, the financial system as a
whole will have collapsed. What's coming is going to make 2008 look like
a joke.

Many people will lose everything in this mess. Yes, everything. The
US is going to be defaulting on its debt, paper currencies around the
world will fail. It's going to be a dark dark time.

If you have
yet to prepare yourself for what’s coming, my Surviving a Crisis Four Times
Worse Than 2008
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Tue, 09/27/2011 - 03:40 | 1713980 yabs
yabs's picture

mga , panic ,cprint, p;anic print eventually leads to collapse IMHO

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 01:10 | 1713855 MGA_1
MGA_1's picture

I think crisis, printing, crisis, printing, but I"m not expecting a financial collapse.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 00:49 | 1713836 monopoly
monopoly's picture

And have a nice day. I am ready.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 00:47 | 1713831 yabs
yabs's picture

these articales seem to suggest that the whole system will collpase which means currecny will be worthless so why is he asking for money and not gold or tinned food?

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 00:45 | 1713830 yabs
yabs's picture

his crash indicator went off last year as well and that came to nothing

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 00:38 | 1713821 gorillaonyourback
gorillaonyourback's picture

enough with all the negative waves morriarty(oddball in kelly's hero) as pupton so eloquently put it, im considering having smoke blown up my ass. cuz walkin around with a yoga swami smile all day might be desirable

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 00:09 | 1713804 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

I'm not a fan of the Phoenix Capital posts or any of the other "Buy my magic info sites" but this time he's right. Two weeks ago we had an impressive short squeeze from the bottom of the Bollinger band trading range to the top before it corrected. This week it won't work. There's heavy resistance before the top of the range and this time the bottom of the range takes in the crash trigger level of 1120 and 1100 just below. With a week full of data to show us in a recession when everyone is pretending it's just a soft spot, with Europe still decidedly NOT fixed, it will only take one or two surprises out of the bunch to set us over the edge. There's a huge storm visible on the horizon and everyone is all happy because it's sunny right this minute. I bought oct AAPL puts at 315 today because I think that the storm will be big enough to take the cash cows down with everything else. Time will tell, but I think this time he's right. (Well maybe no cannibalism and riots in the streets but pretty much right)

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 00:01 | 1713794 radish juice
radish juice's picture

While I agree with the major thesis on the market direction in the blog, your chart showing head and shoulder leaves much to be desired, need to go back to basics and read "Edwards and McGee" again. The head and shoulder neckline formation does not leave a discontinuity between left shoulder and head as you have shown, unless you did not mean it in which case you have communicated poorly. Also, head and shoulder is not just price action but volume action as well, the volume under left shoulder and head needs to be higher for proper formation. Let us get all the paraphernelia together before we start cheerleading again. Reading your recent letters it seems that you are getting quite anxious about the crash and may risk turning yourself into a category 5 contrary indicator.

Mon, 09/26/2011 - 23:21 | 1713745 Lady Heather...UNCLE
Lady Heather...UNCLE's picture

This guy is going to get his short position ass-raped. Wall St are going to buy this thing back through 1200

Mon, 09/26/2011 - 23:34 | 1713761 espirit
espirit's picture

In the meantime... rally on.

Mon, 09/26/2011 - 23:09 | 1713729 totem
totem's picture

While I enjoy reading Graham's forecasts, this one raises a statistics question.

    How often does his Proprietary Crash Indicator go off?

I mean, if it went off every week, I wouldn't be surprised that it registered before the 1987, Tech and 2008 crashes.  Whereas, if this only the 4th time it's gone off, that would be more interesting.

Mon, 09/26/2011 - 22:37 | 1713690 MiningJunkie
MiningJunkie's picture

Like the hands of a stopped clock, it is inevitable that he will appear correct at least twice in a decade. After all, newsletter subscription models thrive on fear. Would you rush to subscribe to a service that said: " Life is about to get better for all of us and to truly maximize your enjoyment, buy my newsletter NOW!!!"

Mon, 09/26/2011 - 22:53 | 1713707 pupton
pupton's picture

Hmm, when you put it that way, sign me up. I'd be willing to pay for someone to blow sunshine up my ass, and I might sleep better at night, and focus better at work, and stop thinking about silver while making love to my much is your fine newsletter my good man?

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 00:31 | 1713816 gorillaonyourback
gorillaonyourback's picture

now that is real fuckin funny ,lololololo im dying here,,,lolololol

Mon, 09/26/2011 - 21:43 | 1713604 pupton
pupton's picture

I get a raging hard on when Graham talks apocalypse like that. I never even make it to the link...his words of doom make me explode immediately. Graham, can you attach a pic to your next episode of "The sky is falling 101"?

Mon, 09/26/2011 - 22:50 | 1713706 Freddie
Freddie's picture

What is weird is it is a head and shoulders after an earlier head and shoulders. (seriously)  The first was Feb to Jul 2011 and now Graham posts another one.  

Mon, 09/26/2011 - 22:54 | 1713709 pupton
pupton's picture

It seems like he might be reaching on this looks like three heads to me...but I'm no pro.

Mon, 09/26/2011 - 21:11 | 1713544 kornholio
kornholio's picture

what a crock of shit

Mon, 09/26/2011 - 20:51 | 1713502 Hubbs
Hubbs's picture

The only good thing about this site (Phoenix Capital) was that it was easy to click on cancel all future emails. This "one more week until TSHTF" warning has been sounding like a broken record for more than a year.  Give it a rest. I'd rather listen to the silverfuturist on you tube.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 00:06 | 1713800 xtop23
xtop23's picture

Aw cmon how can you diss the OCD kid with the chickens 

Mon, 09/26/2011 - 19:29 | 1713266 Sequitur
Mon, 09/26/2011 - 19:29 | 1713265 TulsaTime
TulsaTime's picture

I was just looking at the today totals and wondering when the down days for the week will be. There is no doubt the next one is close, all the news and the way the markets are leaping around.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 00:00 | 1713793 Spirit Of Truth
Spirit Of Truth's picture

In terms of the lunar cycle, the new moon is tomorrow and the period between Rosh Hoshanah and Yom Kippur is usually bullish.  However, from Yom Kippur into late-October, human civilization could crash. JMHO.

Mon, 09/26/2011 - 19:28 | 1713259 prains
prains's picture

just to recap:

the world as we know it is about to end with misery and suffering for all, blood will run in the streets.

babies will be smashed against walls, fire will swallow you whole while the maws of hell consume you.


but for $9.99 I'll show you how to profit from your impending demise.........................


I have a proprietary crash indicator too! you're more than welcome to see it.

Mon, 09/26/2011 - 19:17 | 1713232 Atreyu
Atreyu's picture

Stop sugar coating it.

Mon, 09/26/2011 - 23:36 | 1713763 espirit
espirit's picture

Those are unicorn skittles.

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