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Graham Summers’ Weekly Market Forecast (Stocks Are Last to Get It Edition)
Last week’s moves were entirely based on the fact that stocks are now tracking the Euro almost tick for tick. And last week, the Euro hit “take off,” despite the clear indications that Europe is facing systemic failure (the entire banking system is leveraged at Lehman-like levels and European sovereigns are facing failed bond auctions on a weekly basis).
From a technical standpoint, stocks are now coming up against the 50% retracement level:
I mentioned that last week could be a potential top. I still hold that view and would consider anywhere between today’s levels and 1,250 (MAJOR resistance) to be a spot to lighten up on longs and establish shorts.
Indeed, deflation looks to be the dominate theme in the markets today. Gold is having trouble catching a bid:
While Treasuries are bouncing off support and look ready to start a new leg up.
Inflation hedges falling, Treasuries rallying… this is a deflationary backdrop. And it’s occurring at a time when the EU is talking about launching a LEVERAGED version of the EFSF and the Fed has hinted at launching another version of QE 1???
Folks, something VERY bad is brewing behind the scenes. The Sarkozy- Merkel talks, the short-selling bans, the halted stocks, the leveraged EFSF, the hints of QE 3, all of this is telling us that the financial system is on DEFCON 1 Red Alert.
Ignore stocks, they’re ALWAYS the last to “get it.” The credit markets are jamming up just like they did in 2008. The banking system is flashing all the same signals as well.
So if you have not already taken steps to prepare for systemic failure, you NEED to do so NOW. We're literally at most a few months, and very likely just a few weeks from Europe's banks imploding.
What happened in 2008 was literally just the warm up. The REAL DEAL is coming in the next 14 months. And it’s going to involve corporate, financial, and sovereign defaults.
On that note, if you’re looking for specific ideas to profit from this mess, my Surviving a Crisis Four Times Worse Than 2008 report can show you how to turn the unfolding disaster into a time of gains and profits for any investor.
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Good Investing!
Graham Summers
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Graham, at what point do you reevaluate your thesis, if ever? (I dont disagree with your general views, but am wondering if there is anything that would change your mind, or since you are selling a book etc, this is kind of 'the view'? Thx
Do you hang out with the Mad Hedge Fund Tool?
Pupton, Same note for "months?" Try YEARS! Same old BS. Scare the s**t out of sheeple and offer to take their money to advise them. Martin Weiss is the leader of that shill category, Graham comes in second. Not to say they won't eventually be right, but in the meantime both have been wrong everyday for years while taking sheeple's money. That is my gripe with their sky is falling sales tactic. Don't know why ZH keeps promoting him.
Fed "prints" dollars and hands them to Europe which has to sell the dollars for euro in order to use them, pushing the euro higher. Then said dollars get plugged right back into the S&P, the result is tick for tick similarity in the euro/S&P charts. Too simple? OK, I admit it, but any attempt to explain anything these days with all the hundreds of ways we are getting screwed and all the secret meetings and decisions, insider conduits, and the opacity of reporting in Wall Street, things we used to be able to use EDGAR to look up, or other ways we used to be able to get information available to the public, as opposed to paid subscription. And how can you believe anything you see anymore anyway? There is not a market or a commodity I would put a dime into these days but for physical silver and with the premiums I would wince all the way to the coin shop.
"on that note..." you mean the same note you've been playing for months? We're all on the edge of our seats Graham. Deuchebagsayswhat.
Notice how Graham oh so deftly put QEx back into the picture after pounding for tha last month or so it aint gonna happen?
Ah shucks Graham, if the full report is "absolutely free", why not just post it here and save us the extra clicks?
party will go on. hyperinflation bitches, every one will be millionaires soon.
I am not red arrowing you Mr. Sono because you could end up being right and anyway I save red arrows for assholes and fascists who come here to flame the honest people.
But, I do not agree about hyperinflation, I have many reasons for saying that but the paramount reason is that those top 10% with over 60% of the assets (1% with almost 40%) would have all their wealth and sybaritic dynastic advantages wiped out in hyperinflation so they will not permit that to happen, far more likely is a deflationary depression which other than consumer non durables like food and fuel we already seem to be in or very near.
The minute Bernanke hovers his fat little fingers over the printing press "on" switch for a raging bout of unsterilized M1 and M2 creation to be dropped on the public from helicopters and maybe B-52s the banksters who that will betray will hire some mechanic for a little wet work and while they are at it have it made to look like the OWS did it. Then it is round up time for anybody not happy with the status quo.
you must be losing your ass (not to mention customers) about now
"From a technical standpoint, stocks are now coming up against the 50% retracement level: 1231.51"
Er, didn't the $SPX close at 1254.19 today?
This junk is wrong and out of date already...
But, with respect, it remains junk.
My math exactly, FMB. We are at a much more important 0.615 retrace (close enough to 0.618 for government work). Danger Will Robinson, danger.
Weeks to months...
See you in 2011. I bet they can hold it together until 2015. I don't know how.
yep, sadly they will hold it together for much longer than the shorts will be able to hold on to their positions
When does the ink run out?
when the Inkers no longer accept Bennys trashed FRN's as legal tender