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Grecian Tragedy Formula, Bailout Number 3

Reggie Middleton's picture




 

The word ???????? (tragoidia), from which the word "tragedy" is derived, is a portmanteau of two Greek words: ?????? (tragos) or "goat" and ??? (ode) meaning "song", from ??????? (aeidein), "to sing". This etymology indicates a link with the practices of the ancient Dionysian cults. It is difficult to know with certainty how these fertility rituals became the basis for tragedy and comedy, but an empirical overview of what the Greek government is proposing it is capable of achieving from fiscal standpoint in a short period of time would be borderline laughable if it didn't portend such serious consequences. Alas, since the vast majority of pundits seem to have actually failed to
read what the Greek government has issued as a supposed solution to the its crisis, this fiscal plan, apparently laid out as comedy, has a more than material chance of achieving a tragic end. 

Yesterday, I demonstrated that the sustainability of various proposed Greek bailouts is tantamount to abject non-sense by supplying the tools for subscribers to calculate their own Greek haircut effects, see The Ugly Truth About The Greek Situation That'sToo Difficult Broadcast Through Mainstream Media. Today I will demonstrate that the incessant lies laid forth virtually guarantee a crash landing. Sourced from ZeroHedge, below is page 4 of the Greek debt sustainability proposal floating around EU policy member corridors aimed at determining the likelihood of the success of a 3rd Greek bailout - Tragic Comedy, indeed...

Click to enlarge...

Greek-Sustainability-Proposal_Page_4

There is so much to comment on, I can literally get lost in the diatribe, so let's try to keep it short and focus on how the Greek privasitation plans are working out thus far by referencing a document that gave to my subscribers TWO YEARS AGO!!! Reference File Icon Greece Public Finances Projections, pages 5 and 6.

 

Greece_public_finances_projections1_Page_05

 

Greece_public_finances_projections1_Page_06

'Nuff said. In case I haven't made it clear, I believe Greece's implosion is a foregone conclusion. What the media should be focusing on is the knock-on effects to Portugal, Spain, Italy and Ireland, and the resultant contagion that is sure to affect France and Germany. My next post on this topic will outline the contagion research that we have conducted. Stay tuned!

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Wed, 02/22/2012 - 09:37 | 2184317 engineertheeconomy
engineertheeconomy's picture

Paper debt can never be repaid with paper, it's against the laws of physics. It can, however, be repaid by losing your land/homes. The bankerpoliticians and their thugs know this

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 08:43 | 2184198 The Reich
The Reich's picture

After months of endless negotiations it took Greece only 24 hours to increase its budget deficit forecast for 2012 from 5.4% to 6.7%. All yesterdays papers are spoilage.

 

Why am I in no way not surprised?

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 03:42 | 2183790 sikefeier0728
sikefeier0728's picture

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Tue, 02/21/2012 - 22:59 | 2183200 SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

Thank you, thank you very much. We will be playing in the lounge all week  - don't forget to tip on the way out, and here's a tip for you - Don't chase parked cars.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 21:37 | 2183056 PORTA PORTA
PORTA PORTA's picture

The blame is on ONE FORMULA alone...

The Black-Scholes equation.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/82374342/The-Mathematical-Equation-That-Caused...

 

pp

 

and dont pay the ferryman

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 05:50 | 2184087 falak pema
falak pema's picture

This article by IAN STEWART should be published in every business school and law school for the decades to come. In fact it should be nailed to the doors of EVERY TBTF BANKSTA INSTITUTION WORLD WIDE...AND TO EVERY ELECTIVE BODY IN WESTERN WORLD; FOR THEM TO CONTEMPLATE THE THEORETICAL ROOTS OF THEIR COLLECTIVE FOLLY!

These venerable professors, Black and Scholes, even got a Nobel Prize for it; a bit like Dr K and his new disciple O'bammy.

Dynamite Nobel! He lives upto his own invention TNT, in his prized legacy!

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 04:53 | 2184038 Tao 4 the Show
Tao 4 the Show's picture

Black-Scholes was just part of the con the snake oil investment banks used to sell customers on the idea of throwing their money in Black Holes. Peole who don't know math (and even those who do but never learned tp think for themselves) are impressed by equations like B-S.

Before the money swirls down into the Black Hole, the con men take their cut. Then they re-package the empty space and give it a fancy name that includes "collateralized" or "swap", and unload the liability while taking another cut of actual cash on the way out.

Black and Scholes also made out okay on consulting fees, I'm sure.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 06:52 | 2184121 Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

Sometimes Theory should not be allowed to escape from the classroom. There is so much of this Theory including CAPM and EMT that frankly should not be allowed out with the grown-ups.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 23:27 | 2183266 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

I'll check it out, I also believe Greece is doomed.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 06:12 | 2184099 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Its not Greece, that is just the horse shoe; the battle is about first world capitalism, runaway financialisation. Its a killer. Financial fascism is not compatible with democracy and republic. We have to choose as a continent, as a world community of first world nations.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 18:18 | 2182480 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Reggie. Greece. How long's it got?

...til i can buy a massively discounted sun-kissed ocean side Villa

Cheers Dude

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 16:59 | 2182168 SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

Go back to the beefcake spear picture - at least that was both entertaining, and to the point. Distill all this vomit into a coherent concise ass whapping piece of journalism and you will have a following. Just backing up the information dump truck of trash and dropping it on to a blog posting is so ninties there Reggie.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 17:23 | 2182094 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

 

 

 

Round 3 of the White Zombie Devil Man http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YvGrJVdCf64&feature=related...LMAO, Reggie, you have gone deep enough to hear the goat song, that was not diffiCULT. You know who the Piper is my friend. What you are having diffiCULTy with is that fact. 

                                    Who rides the Lion of Babylon

(goto 08:00 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=06gsgZUe32s&feature=related

      ...and dares to look back at Sodom with admiration and desire? LMAO 

Hmm, maybe it's time to mention something I saw in a dream, which is now rising and coming to pass. Long story short, pun intended LOL,

...as the pillar of fire came toward the people who were not moved by the warning call I was charged with, or the destructive storm that had risen before it became this pillar of fire now about to overwhelm their lives, I realized (heard the goat song LMAO) that any false move on my part, as I now stood among the people I have tried to warn (kinda like you Reggie), I would perish. At that point in the dream I was so inspired to move (divest from the black hole) it woke me up from the dream. This was no ordinary dream, this dream is a prophetic revelation.  

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KIqps3E44rc&feature=related

 

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 16:36 | 2182055 Straw Dog
Straw Dog's picture

Reggie, I make my best efforts to wade through your work, I think is really valuable. But with poor formatting, graphs are difficult to read are not enlargeable, plus too many cross references, and not knowing the chronological order of some artilces, makes it a task. I'm sure you would get more readers and signups if the presentation was better.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 04:12 | 2183904 Reggie Middleton
Reggie Middleton's picture

Most of your issues would be solved if you went to the original article. The formatting on the articles is fine, but when I cross post the content to ZH, incompatibilities can show up. If there graphical issues or formatting problems, simply refer to the original article on BoomBustBlog.com and you will find they don't exist there.

Since this content is being provided free of charge, there is not funding source to reformat the articles. Hopefully, this is easily understood.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 18:11 | 2182457 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

I'm starting to feel sorry for Reggie.. we're all having a go at his presentation skills, not a post goes by without some quip or another!

Having said that on his Apple v Google (Crusade of Crapology) please by all means stick the knife in all you like

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 15:33 | 2181775 silverserfer
silverserfer's picture

the way they keep bailing out the peripheries you start to get a clear picture that when it all goes it will be a simeltaneous USA and Europe default. Centrall planning directing us toward one world currency.

GOLD Bitchez!

My call is planned bank holiday & default Dec 26th 2012.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 09:42 | 2184339 engineertheeconomy
engineertheeconomy's picture

Dec 21st

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 14:26 | 2181556 ejhickey
ejhickey's picture

Willem (“Hans”) Humes of Greylock Capital, was on bloomberg this AM discussing the Greek deal. He stated this was a bad deal for private investors such as greylock because of the huge losses involved but it it was the best deal under the circumstances. I wonder who at Greylock and other private investors made the decision to lend money to Greece by buying their bonds. At some time in the past , who raised his or her hand and said “ I have a really great idea. Lets buy some Greek debt. I know it seems a little risky but hey it’s sovereign debt . How risky can that be. Greece can always raise taxes to pay off the debt. What are the chances that something could go horribly , awfully wrong and we could really lose our shirts? Probably slim and none. On the bright side , those yields look awfully attractive. We could make some real money here. Let’s DO THIS. LET’S GO GREEK. OPPA!”

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 14:11 | 2181517 mind_imminst
mind_imminst's picture

More printing will come soon enough. It is the easy way out for the power-elite and the commoners (although those at the bottom will fail to see their coming destruction through inflation). Party on!

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:54 | 2180976 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

I honestly don't think I have patience to read daily articles about the next 6 countries to default. Wasting too much of my time. When it happens it happens.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 12:24 | 2181115 Going Loco
Going Loco's picture

"Wasting too much of my time"

Guess you haven't figured out a way to trade it. 

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 22:45 | 2183168 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

I haven't made any $ since prior to 2008. I sent my mort. company a cashiers check for $115k and paid off my house. After that I lost what was left of my trading account due to stupid mistakes and then the massive economic recovery took my $40hr job and left me nothing. I haven't been this broke since high school. No kidding.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 10:06 | 2184416 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

also, had a friend in HS in TN, Retus - wouldn't be u?

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 10:04 | 2184404 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

Unfortunately, we're in the same camp.  Hooverville.  I'm at 1/3 income of 2006-2007 levels.  But I'm only a hand full of years from finishing the race.  Mortgage is the only thing left for us (6 more years).  But in spite of it all, we're not broke, just badly bent, as the song goes.  However; our plan doesn't include the loss of so much equity and if the pensions or Soc Sec gets cut severly, our 6-year plan then becomes a 20 year plan....bummer.  Hang in there my friend.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:31 | 2180883 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

EUR cliff diving and USD moonshot commencing in 3...2...1...

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:29 | 2180873 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Bottom line RM : How many months, years, before the great splits obliges the Euro Bonanza team to throw in the Greek towel??

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 12:36 | 2181182 BigJim
BigJim's picture

C'mon Falak; you must know by now that such predictions imply a belief that economic outcomes are deterministic.

How long will they keep kicking the snowball up the hill, before it gets sufficiently large that it starts rolling backwards and crushes the kickers? Depends on how big and many and willing the kickers are.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 05:55 | 2184091 falak pema
falak pema's picture

BigJim : I was just being facetious! Not to be taken verbatim. Sorry.

 

In the gloom n doom of ZH bloom, I need to spew my facetiousness; its better than spewing from the other exit, I'm sure you'll agree. 

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:27 | 2180867 Rip van Wrinkle
Rip van Wrinkle's picture

Reggie, without having to wade through all that, i guess you're saying Greece is f*cked? And that politicans have been lying?

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:35 | 2180891 Cant see me
Cant see me's picture

Reggie,

   Love your work, but could you just add a paragraph that sums it up....I trust your work, just don't have time (or desire) to wade through it all:)

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:49 | 2180940 jez
jez's picture

You love his work, but not enough to actually read it?

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 16:35 | 2182047 Augustus
Augustus's picture

The information provided is just so Last Year.  Something containing current analysis would possibly be interesting and worth reading.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 19:13 | 2182427 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

what Reggie is saying is even last years research showed Govts had over-valued public asset sales (ie. were cooking the books) and that this years Eurocrat estimates were even worse financial frauds (typical standard lying human scum Govt practice across the globe)

Porsche re-skin models much like Reggie is doing here and there's nothing wrong with that ..if the model still works why fix it eh?

 

 

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 20:44 | 2182914 blueridgeviews
blueridgeviews's picture

Gee, the Gov't cooking the books, who'd a thought.

 

They removed mark to market 3 years ago so the "in your face" cooking could be legalised.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 00:38 | 2183426 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

$1600 invested in Greek 1 year bonds marked to maturity yields a million bucks. Anybody need to shore up their books?

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 12:23 | 2181114 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

I think he wants the Reader's Digest version.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 00:34 | 2183418 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

I think he wants the Reader's Digest version.

 

"If you eliminate the third, fifth and sixth letters it spells Red's Digest." -- Col. Flagg.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 12:25 | 2181127 Going Loco
Going Loco's picture

Perhaps the MSM is correct in its assumption that most people are (a) lazy, and (b) dumb.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 17:07 | 2182209 Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

While that is the only thing the MSM is right about. What some of you may be forgetting is that many people read ZeroHedge for the considerable entertainment value. The contributors and commentors are seriously funny bastards. Oh yeah, and informative too.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 09:58 | 2184384 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

And don't forget the time crunch.  Got a minute to spare?  How about a dime?

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 13:28 | 2181393 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

Or both.

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