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Greece has No Idea What It's Gotten Itself Into

Phoenix Capital Research's picture





 

 

Graham’s note: the following is an excerpt from a recent issue of my Private Wealth Advisory newsletter with some additional research I did on the economy of Greece.

 

The Greeks have no idea what they’ve gotten themselves into.

 

A few facts about Greece…

 

First off, demographics wise, Greece is a disaster.

 

Real Clear Markets shares the following facts.

 

  • Greece’s fertility rate is 1.3 children per women. This is nearly a full child below the “replacement rate”: the number of children needed to maintain the current population.

 

  • Greece’s population of 65 and over has soared from 11% in 1970 to 24% in 2010. It will hit 33% by 2050. Meanwhile, Greece’s working population will decline to 20% over the same time period.

 

  • Because of this, Greece spends 12% of its GDP on pensions.

 

As if this weren’t bad enough, the unemployment rate for Greeks aged 15-24 is 40%. For Greeks aged 24-34 it’s 22%. Imagine being a young person, not being able to find a job, and then knowing that huge percentage of your efforts (42%) are going to be taxed to fund all the crazy social welfare programs for Greece’s aging population. Small wonder that seven out of ten young Greeks want to work abroad and four of out ten are actively seeking work outside of Greece.

 

Also, it’s no surprise that those Greeks who do have jobs, don’t want to pay this massive tax load. Consider that the Greek working population is roughly seven million people. 95 percent of them declare annual income of less than 30,000 euros.

 

So that’s the situation in Greece. Terrible age demographics, an economy that’s in the toilet, and politicians who simply don’t get it.

 

Now let’s consider who’s actually got the cash to potentially help Greece from a default, and what they want in return.

 

We’re talking about Germany.

 

For most of the Greece Crisis, the supposed “saviors” were the IMF, the ECB, and Germany. That all changed in the last month. The IMF has called for more funds. Those funds aren’t coming. Remember, the IMF is largely a US-backed organization. And the US sure as heck won’t go for a US-backed bailout of Europe.

 

So the IMF is out of the picture in terms of helping Greece in any meaningful way.

 

Now, how about the ECB? Well Germany has told the ECB to its face that if it continues to monetize EU sovereign bonds that Germany will walk out on the Euro. So the ECB may continue to meddle in the bond market to avert a Crisis, but if it ever decides to publicly state it will be monetizing EU debt going forward, Germany’s out and the Euro implodes.

 

Which leaves Germany as the official backstop/ savior for Greece. And here’s how Germany recently address the IMF when the IMF asked Germany for help with the Greek situation.

 

Berlin resists pressure to give Greece more

 

Germany, the biggest and richest country in the euro zone, has provided the bulk of the funds for the bailouts of Ireland, Portugal and Greece. Now it is firmly rejecting calls to come up with yet more funds for Greece to compensate for any shortfalls in a debt relief deal with private creditors.

 

On Friday Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle defended Berlin’s tough stance. The Greeks, he insisted, should show that they are willing to implement reforms before getting more money.

 

“We Germans do not expect from anyone in Europe more than what we are asking from our own citizens. We cannot explain to taxpayers in Germany that they have to do things that others do not want to do while at the same time asking for their money,” Westerwelle said in Brussels.

 

He pointed out that Germany had already come up over 200 billion euros ($262 billion) for the bailout funds. “It makes no sense” he said, to give more money to Greece, “if we don't know whether the reforms which have been agreed upon will be really implemented.” He argued that coming up with more money just lessened the pressure to reform.

 

http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/europe/germany/120127/berlin-resists-pressure-give-greece-more

 

Diplomatically, this is about as close as Germany can come to telling the IMF to “stuff it.” Germany knows the IMF doesn’t have the funds and won’t be getting them (the IMF is primarily a US-backed entity and the US won’t stand for a US-backed European bailout).

 

Indeed, just a few days after Germany said “nein” to more Greece bailouts, it then threw the following suggestion out:

 

German proposal seeks EU commissioner with sweeping powers to directly control Greece’s budget

Germany is proposing that debt-ridden Greece temporarily cede sovereignty over tax and spending decisions to a powerful eurozone budget commissioner before it can secure further bailouts, an official in Berlin said Saturday.

 

The idea was quickly rejected by the European Union’s executive body and the government in Athens, with the EU Commission in Brussels insisting that “executive tasks must remain the full responsibility of the Greek government, which is accountable before its citizens and its institutions.”

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/markets/german-proposal-seeks-eu-commissioner-with-sweeping-powers-to-directly-control-greeces-budget/2012/01/28/gIQAxHWgXQ_story.html

 

In plain terms, push has now to come shove in Europe. Germany permitted the ECB to implicitly monetize various EU sovereign nations’ debts during 2011 because Germany hadn’t yet taken the steps to prepare for a collapse of the EU.

 

It now has. In the last six months, Germany has:

 

1)  

Passed legislation permitting it to leave the Euro without leaving the EU.

2)  

Passed legislation permitting it to nationalize German banks during times of Crisis.

3)  

Demanded that German banks in general raise capital.

In plain terms, Germany is now prepared to walk if it has to. And it’s made its demands very clear: if you want German funds, you will need to give up fiscal sovereignty.

 

It’s also made it clear that it will tolerate neither the issuance of Eurobonds OR direct and open monetization by the ECB.

 

In other words, Germany has said “it’s our way or the highway.” True, this borders on an act of financial warfare, but in the end, Germany has never truly been interested in a monetary union so much as a political union.

 

Germany will not suffer inflation (they’ve seen how monetization works out, e.g. Weimar), nor internal discord (in November 78% of Germans thought the Euro would survive… by December 60% of them though the Euro was a “bad idea”.)

 

Put another way, Germany is going to look after its own domestic interests. And if some EU member wants German funds, it’s going to have to give up its fiscal sovereignty and essentially become a vassal state for Germany. End of story.

 

With that in mind, I believe the next round of the Euro Crisis is now at our doorstep. Indeed, this latest short-covering rally in the Euro (Euro shorts were at a record high) looks ready to end and reverse.

 

So if you think the EU Crisis is over, think again. True we’ve got until March 20th for the Greek deal to be reached, but things have already gotten to the point that Germany has essentially issued its ultimatum. Either Greece hands over fiscal sovereignty, or it defaults in a BIG way.

 

 

For more market and geopolitical insights, swing by www.gainspainscapital.com. We offer a number of Free Reports designed to help investors prepare for the necessary restructuring that is coming to the economy and the capital markets.

 

Best Regards,

 

Graham Summers

 


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Mon, 02/06/2012 - 23:57 | Link to Comment malek
malek's picture

Small problem with your comparison:

Greece’s fertility rate is 1.3 children per women.

Germany's fertility rate has been 1.35 children per women since 1970 !!!

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 18:08 | Link to Comment steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

Let's start with the false assumptions in this article then move right over to the errors, shall we ...

- There is nothing wrong with Greek demographics just like there isn't anything right about them, either. The demographics are. PS, there are too many humans, Greeks and otherwise. This problem is self-solving, btw.

- If there is 20%+ unemployment among young people w/ current Greek population, how would increasing population (by adding Islamic immigration presumably) help?

- Greece's problem and the rest of Europe's, US's, China's, Japan's, etc. is onrushing energy shortage. Demand in the form of autos rises much faster than new oil fields are put into production. Tight fuel means tight credit which in turn rations fuel. Greece and the rest of Europe is on the way to becoming car-free.

- Is the euro a Ponzi scheme? By acting like it is, the euro-users make it so. UK is out, that's a Ponzi vote. Hungary wants out but they need an IMF line of credit. The next country that exits the euro is ??? The country after that is Germany.

- What is going under is the American-style consumption or 'waste-based' economy which burns up perfectly good capital in an engine for nothing. An analogy is raping your daughter. It provides instant gratification but is counterproductive longer term.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 17:55 | Link to Comment dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

hmmm.......Germany could eventually own all of Europe if they keep taking sovereignty for bailouts.....

Economics is so much more effective than military might!

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 17:08 | Link to Comment digitlman
digitlman's picture

First, extra points for the triple spacing.  Makes a little bit of stuff look a whole lot bigger.  I used that same trick in Middle School.

Second, I have no second.  

I'm long Feta Cheese.

 

 

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 16:41 | Link to Comment ThirdCoastSurfer
ThirdCoastSurfer's picture

If the ultimate goal of the EU is to create a nation-state, then it's got to start somewhere, why not with Greece? It's the other Piigs who will cry bloody murder and come to the rescue at such an event knowing that it would be just a matter of time before their sovereignty was subsumed; but again, what is the purpose of the EU if not to unite? 

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 16:06 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

Big way is right way. The Greeks should think big like the Germans do but not to the same end. 

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 15:52 | Link to Comment bigkahuna
bigkahuna's picture

This needs to get done. I am tired of hearing about it. The anticipation is a real pain. Lets get it started so we can get it finished and Greece can move on.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 16:00 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Greece can't move on.  Banks can ignore a default announcement.  The IMF and ECB holds huge numbers of those bonds.  They will never acknowledge default and will keep sending payment notices, and maybe do some confiscating.

And the XX% of GDP spent on pensions is not a problem, because those pensions get spent back inside the country.

What IS a problem is 5% of GDP is spent on imported oil.  That leaves the country.

The EU can't allow Greece to default painlessly.  The EU will be in a position where post default they will have to blockade Greece to prevent Red Cross and emergency famine relief from coming in to make default a painless event.  If it's a painless event, others will follow.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 15:47 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

so 'Short yohgurt' yes Graham?

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 15:45 | Link to Comment Fubared
Fubared's picture

So Graham, it seems that Greece has a bigger power than it's GDP motivates(3 % of Eurozone GDP). I disagree. As a Swede living in Germany, it get the feeling Germany don't give a shit about Greece. In or out, default or licking up to the PTB, it is not important. Merkel will defend the European project at any cost.She has too much invested in the idea.

She will easily pay for a Greek default (which is not so expensive anymore, after the German banks have been propped up), and continue to defend the Euro. Germany leaving first is not in her head, that will open up to her rivals crushing her in the next election. Better to put a BMW factory(and more) in Greece in order to create jobs. 

The big What If is what will happen to Italy and Spain. That looks like it will have a possible havoc effect. Not Greece.

/R

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 15:25 | Link to Comment williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

The statement is too narrow, Europe has no idea what has gotten itself into.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 15:20 | Link to Comment carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Greece's current military spending is in preparation for a time when they can no longer depend on the EU for security. They know what's coming.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 15:09 | Link to Comment Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

Print more Euros.

Give them to Greece.

Greece pays debts.

Problem solved, crisis averted, and situation back to normal.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 15:46 | Link to Comment Stroke
Stroke's picture

Print Drachmas......Lots of 'em!

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 18:41 | Link to Comment Mauibrad
Mauibrad's picture

 

The Greek take on it:  http://youtu.be/Zvl9N9GdraQ

 

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 15:27 | Link to Comment knightowl77
knightowl77's picture

Give them to Greece???and devalue everyone else's money?

 

Problem will not be solved until blows up

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