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Has Google made Wintel and Satellite Cable Terminal Shorts?
The mosaic that is Google is coming together, and it appears the company is on the verge of major disruption to a few notable cash cows. As I scan thru the Technology news over the last few days, it is hard to ignore that Google is everywhere you look. Between the Chromebook, Android, and Google TV the outlook for Windows/Intel and satellite cable industry looks cloudy.
The Google Chromebook is developing into the tool that opens the door for Google in the enterprise space. Chromebooks meet the primary concerns of CIOs, who have shared a common theme for their IT dollars: immediate ROI, cloud, and enhanced security. While it is early in the game, Google is picking up steam as the retirement of XP and Office 2003 approach in 2014. They are running trials for corporate IT departments now. With the development of virtualization, Citirix Receiver and VMware View allow Chromebooks users to access Windows applications if needed.
Sunday’s New York Times discussed Google’s success against Microsoft in small to mid-size business market, but mentions that large corporations are not ready to make the move. I agree. However, the evolution of IT is not headed in the direction of Wintel. I believe this direction is terminal for the likes of Windows &, Intel chips. In addition, the Google TV and YouTube initiatves don't bode well for DirecTV or Dish. So when I say terminal - I don’t believe Microsoft or Intel's tickers are going away, however, I do believe those businesses will crumble. DirecTV and Dish on the otherhand are toast.
Let’s start with Microsoft (Missed Search Fone Tablet). I could actually end it there, but I’ll go on.
I do not believe a company that has missed every major trend in technology over the last five years is going to magically turn it around with Windows Mobile/Nokia. They have a cash cow (Windows) and over 50% of their revenue recurring with little competition. There hasn’t been a credible alternative for large IT departments up until now. I listen to all the valuation arguments on MSFT, and I get it. But where do they fit into the picture 5 years from now? Given the rapid nature of change in IT – I think it’s dramatically different than today. There was actually laughter at a recent Tech conference when a Microsoft executive mentioned monetizing intellectual property in China as an initiative.
Intel. This one is short. I really don’t care about servers and McAfee. Let’s be honest, no one is going to buy an $1,100 Acer Ultrabook over a $300 Chromebook (Acer as well mind you) for the privilege of having a $300 chip inside. From a secular standpoint – there is a decline in PC business. As Goldman’s Semi analyst has pointed out repeatedly – Intel is the only company in the PC ecosystem that thinks the outlook is good. I’m taking the under - something about the CEO interview from a museum to launch the Ultrabook didn’t scream innovation.
At a time when Apple, Google, and Amazon are spending like crazy to build out data centers, implement cloud, and hire talent – Microsoft and Intel are paying dividends, suing people, and operating a museums. That’s not entirely fair – but you get my drift… they are complacent and Google is coming hard.
Satellite TV is pretty straightforward. I’m not the smartest guy in the world, but the business model doesn’t work in a high speed connection world. I pay $100/month for a dish on top of my house that provides me with 1,000s of channels I don’t want. In order to use the interactive features I do want, I have to pay $80/month for a high speed cable connection from another company. Honestly, any a la carte option from Google (that includes ESPN) and it’s sayonara to the dish. In fact if Google is acquiring content for YouTube more aggressively than expected – it may be time to size these guys for toe tags sooner than later.
So how long does this all take? That is the question, isn't it? With Google’s $39B in cash and FCF yield, on a forward basis, of 7-8% they have the firepower to support these initiatives until the inevitable tipping point - and once it starts both of these stories will unravel quickly.
I didn’t even get going on Android.
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Google has a ton of stuff going on but they are terrible at marketing it so the chances of them ending anyone's business is slim to none. They own the search business but that's about it, they will always just be the Microsoft of Search. I'm an Android user and I enjoy it but most of the people I know that have it are frustrated with it because of bugs and want to move to the iPhone. I doubt that the iPhone is much better in terms of the bugs that people get like text messaging force closing and such but non-iPhone users think that because of the Apple halo the iPhone must work perfectly. Google has yet to create any sort of image that makes people want to go with them on their name alone. They've got a bunch of great apps which they hardly ever mention. They've had speech recognition since forever and most Android users don't even know about it. Apple drops Siri and its the focus on their phone and they act like its the second coming of Christ. Google needs to learn how to sell their products, being in tech its one part coming up with great products which they do a good job of but there's a second part of making it stand out from the bunch and they fail there.
There are still far too many people living where broadband is not yet up to speed (or not even available). Satellite may not be able to compete in urban areas, but I don't see it going away anytime soon, as there are millions in the US with no other viable options.
Well said. I think the only true gamechanger in the space would be if the U.S. sponsored a data project much like they did with electricity in the 1930s, with the Rural Electrification Act. Until then satellite TV and to a lesser extent internet are going to remain strong. Plus as the author stated but sorta discounted, it's all about the content - content is gonna be the thing that makes or breaks any entertainment tech, look no further than the Netflix margin squeeze.
ChromeBook to beat Wintel???!! My @$$. This is what happens when you let fools with little domain knowledge somehow offer an 'expert' opinion on the subject.
ChromeOS is absolutely garbage. I doubt it can even beat the user experience of Windows 3, and yet it's priced as if Win7 in a netbook. People might not buy 1000$ ultrabooks but I guarantee there's even less interest in a 300$ Windows 3 counterpart AKA ChromeOS.
Exactly. People that dont know IT should not make "expert" opinions.
MSFT is making amazing strides in the cloud. Their webapps are simply amazing for collaborating with people that have a desktop version of office and even those that do not. My entire team can brainstorm with the same onenote notebook from anywhere in the work. We can touch up word and excel docs. And even do client presentations by sharing our desktop anywhere in the world, using their lync system. Nothing comes close to exchange.
As far as chromeOS, not even worth the argument. Anyone that thinks it is a viable enterprise solution is not an "expert."
I disagree with the OP when it comes to the Enterprise space. But for small business owners Google is making progress. Gmail (apps) is a MUCH better option vs Exchange for many small business. In fact you probably send email to gmail customers every day without knowing it. Google docs can do everything you mention about word and excel docs from my recollection.
But to characterize Microsoft's progress in the cloud as amazing seems like a stretch. They are just taking things that other people have been doing for years and incorporating it into their products that have a huge market share.
ChromeOS has promise but its certainly not a game changer for Enterprise level customers. Google does not have to win the Enterprise space to succeed.
#I do not believe a company that has missed every major trend in technology over the last five years
another idiotic post about Microsoft.. have author ever code a line ?
does he understand anything in software design/ programming? apparently so..
so he must be rich as 'croesus' or , pardon pun, as Mr. Gates.
I keep on hearing about death Wintel for last 10 years.. if it was so easy to make Windows/Office killer, I'd say someone would already did it..
Mr (Eric) Schmid used to run Novell.. hello ? where 's Novell? they couldn't even do real multitasking ..
alx
ps
BTW , there cant be many trends in last 5 years. thats why its called trend. so far there's been only one trend, called 'personal computer' and Wintel has been riding it for last 25 years..
"I keep on hearing about death Wintel for last 10 years."
And you'll hear about it for another 10 years. MSFT is still that big. But the commentary isn't about MSFT and INTL dying, but of their influence diminishing, and it has for the last 10 years. If nothing else, look at a languishing stock price to tell the narrative. Then look at the stock price of GOOG and AAPL. In case you doubt the capital markets, look at the profits and earnings. If that doesn't convince you, then look at the lines around the block to buy the latest products from MSFTs competitors while WINTEL products undergo heavy discounts.
I'm not going to say this article is wrong, but it could be wrong.
Google has done some good things, but the best thing they do is run their enterprise. A low-cost computer does not make a technology powerhouse. Android is a smart choice for new players who need a cheap OS for their device, but Android is not really a well thought out platform.
Microsoft has an information embargo in effect right now as they align their internal divisions to all the new changes forthcoming, and the changes are actually something to behold. Once Windows 8 is released, their technology stack will be years ahead of everyone.
The WinRT layer is obviously designed for portability since the OS will be available on ARM processors. My guess is that it ports everywhere. This is a native layer that is language agnostic. You want to write your app in C++? No problem. Same with C#, Visual Basic, Javascript, and your layout can be in HTML5 or XAML. It's all sandboxed, and talking directly to the hardware, and they have already rolled out the highest performance, most expressive graphics capabilities with XNA living inside the new version of Silverlight.
If they in fact can ram this stack into anything that smells like a CPU hooked to RAM... and all indications sort of point that way, then they will be the company everyone goes to for both mobile and desktop, because it will safely run everything faster, more open, and better connected than anything else out there.
Just a thought.
going to the 'cloud' means handing over your whole life to the fed gov.....nothing will be private or secure.....
the usa has high speed...where..? what a joke....google was suppose to have all this shi.t done in 2003. 9 years later and still nothing.....
A future of completely cloud dependant dummy terminals is bleak...
Satellite TV is pretty straightforward. I’m not the smartest guy in the world, but the business model doesn’t work in a high speed connection world.
For one person maybe not but the more people involved the less high speed that connected world becomes. The beauty of broadcast is that the costs (high for Sat TV) are fixed whether one person is watching TV or 300 million. Streaming/downloading AV content over the internet creates a unique, capacity intensive data stream for every additional user - which costs somebody something in some way.
We're already at the point where Netflix viewing can clog up half the available bandwidth capacity on a busy Friday night. Maybe a lot of those capacity issues will eventually be ironed out but data transmition is only as fast as the smallest bottleneck.
Mercury you make good points but may I point out with Sat TV it is pretty much a non-interactive system. Downstream but no upstream. They lose on interactivity unless they combine with broadband then you have to consider that cost into your equation.
Hmm. Actually the market for business is not geared towards anything you have mentioned. I won't bother to mention the mismanagement of Google, its simply not business ready.
The near future is what will happen with MS and their tablet. This is not something to pass over. Win 8 tablets will provide the end user metro newness and legacy app support. Cloud and local apps. App store and freedom of older and newer apps that will run in the standard desktop mode. Coupling a tablet with a docking station for more power/periph devices will mean the tablet is way more versatile than is what is offered by Apple/Goog. Cohesion and loosely coupled will be a hallmark, as the blend of moibility and desktop will make it easy to choose one that can do it all.
Zice you are right the Windows 8 tablet is very nice and should do well. I guess the point I was trying to make is that MS had a monopoly per se. OS and software as the defacto standard. Now the competition is better. Reggie continues to make the point about margins. Google tends to have the advantage here and as their matrix is developed it will put a squeeze on MS and Apple. I don't see MS getting down and dirty. They won't until share has really dropped.
Don't get me wrong I want everyone to stay in the game and compete.
I dunno... I don't like Google but I use it. CD would understand me. I see Google as the new Microsoft. Many innovations used by many people and who is to compete? Android smartphones sales now have 53% marketshare over last year's 25%. Apple dropped from 16% to 15%. Reggie and I have been saying for better or worse Google is the powerhouse.
I was given a Google TV device a year ago and I can tell you Google TV will disrupt television as we all know it. Content deals are being inked and Google will roll out a an amazing TV-like experience for HD flat screens, tablets and phones.
Google music store has opened and watch what happens to Itunes. Apple will always be around which is a good thing, I love competition. Microsoft will relegate itself to look more and more like IBM.
Ahhh yes the cloud. I hate the cloud. Some here say business will not use the cloud. Nope it is already happening. I will resist it as long as I can. I would rather secure my data on my localized servers but I am a dying breed. The youngsters take to the cloud like they were born to it. I argue about security and they don't seem to care. Such is youth.
I could go on but I would not bet against Google just like I did not bet against MS years ago. Reggie, you can chime in should you please.
nobody is buying a netbook anymore than they did 15 years ago. I despite CIAgle and don't use their products anymore.
Gaggle docs is a joke, most of their products are really half assed. they're not brilliant. You can only see iCrap and CIAgle products as revolutionary if you are in the cult. Right now, MS has the best phone OS, and actually the best cloud to go with it.
If/when CIAgle TV threatens anyone, the people who actually provide the pipes will crush them, like they've done to so many others. MS isn't going anywhere.
Trav I share your feeling and think much like you. Just saying what I see happening not because I want it to. The studios like Sony are already signing up and Google has plans to create its own pipes so they won't be crushed.
Google having 53% market share in smartphones is not a cult. Did not say MS was going away they will just lose market share.
Oh by the way did you know Microsoft was one of the first companies to allow the NSA to help design Windows 7? Apple, Google and MS are all working with the gov. Rim tried to stay pure but look what's happened to them. They have been taken to the woodshed for trying to preserve privacy.
I wonder if people argued about refrigerators like this back in the day?
You haven't heard about Google Fridge?
Cloud = all your data are belong to us
funny how fog = cloud can also be true
"...cloud, and enhanced security..."
Lulz
MS Office ...
I've used Open Office since it was Star Office, over 10 years go. I use it today, it gets better and better. But is still not offering what Office provides. I've used Google web-based Office-equivalent apps. Office is "good enough" at scripting so when people need a little oomph, they resort to VBA. I they need more, they step out of the Office paradigm and resort to something like Python or Matlab. Beyond that, they engage IT. Office, especially Excel, is used as a presentation tool, modeler, database, work flow manager, you name it. It's strength is its bane.
MS OS ...
Corporations still use XP. Servers are running Enterprise Server 2003. XP, like Office, is "stable enough." Windows 7, despite the touts, is still a cancerous hack. Evidence: install 64-bit 7 and look for 64- and 32-bit analogs of directories and system files, plus what is with that horrible multiple-GB DLL cache directory inside the Windows folder. 7, like Vista, relies on upgraded hardware forcing us down the upgrade chute even more than before thanks to the "Experience" rating. I use 7 professionally and for all the touting, for the all the hardware (brand new), it works slower than it should.
Cloud ...
Where I work we won't cloud due to security, intellectual property, and outright access risk (in event of outage).
iPad ...
We use iPad. Does it run Office and a plethora of legacy applications? No. So it's a niche product, yes game-changer, blah-blah, but still niche.
Conclusion ...
Microsoft is a cow but can't be unseated yet by alternatives.
When Google (or other cloud supplier) offers up an easy to use SQL database (like MS Access), then I abandon MSFT's products.
Apple is not doing it. Google is not doing it. Not even MSFT is doing it (they DO have a version of their SQL Server that works in the cloud).
If Apple or Google does put up an SQL database that is cheap and easy to use, they would grab perhaps 5% of Microsoft's user base in a FLASH.
exactly
Reggie that you?
Google is a criminal organisation with early funding by the CIA, soon to get a well-deserved come-uppance from EU authorities, for its role in censorship of EU journalism, and the willing participation by Google executives, in terrorist acts to murder European citizens.
Here in Brussels, I know some of staff in EU agencies that will be taking action against Google, and EU officials definitely do not like being bullied by, and having their web searches censored by the Google Inc. monopoly monster. I borrowed my ZeroHedge avatar photo, from one of Google's victims that I know, a writer in Belgium that Google is blocking from search results.
Live Photo: Google Inc. Caught Censoring EU Search Results (for USA - CIA)
Google Internet Censorship - Censure d'Internet par Google - Internet censuur door Google
http://www.flickr.com/photos/22325431@N05/6100668211/in/photostream
Report to the EU Parliament and the Commission of the European Union
Anti-Competition Crimes of EU Internet Monopoly Google Inc. (with CIA) and Wikipedia (with CIA), to Erase EU Journalism, to Slander and Murder EU - Polish Citizen, Writer, Journalist Dr Les (Leszek - Leslie) Sachs
http://www.indymedia.nl/nl/2011/07/77181.shtml
Original in pdf format:
http://eureportsnonzionistjews.hostfile.nl/file/0zndj5ea3v/410/nzjd-eu-r...
'Ex-Agent: CIA Seed Money Helped Launch Google', retired intelligence agent Robert David Steele interviewed by Paul Joseph Watson on Alex Jones' Prison Planet site, and speaking of the CIA's Dr Rick Steinheiser and his connections with Google:
http://www.infowars.com/articles/bb/google_cia_seed_money_launched_googl...
use Bing then. I don't use CIAgle anymore. It was a hip fad when it was actually hip. Now it's just played out, like how a cool restaurant or night spot gets "discovered" by all the lemmings and loses its charm.
no, I don't get it
I tried to read the websites but the political vocabulary is terribly distracting (and hysterical)
where is the murder? Google partecipating to a murder by blocking web searches just sounds a slightly bit...
a murder is a murder, a blocked search is a blocked search, or am I a bit dense today?
For broader command and conttrol, the elite will opt to make full use of satellite.
Sundar Pichai's argument for Chromebook in the video embedded in link below.
Instant on,
Always connected,
All-day battery,
Access your 'stuff' anywhere,
Gets better over time,
Security built in.
Are you fucking kidding me Indian? That's the best you can do?
http://www.zdnet.com/blog/btl/googles-chromebook-for-business-interestin...
FAIL!
The cloud will always be dark for enterprise. Always.
To take the stance that the cloud will always be dark for enterprise is just silly. Its not dark now.
There is certain data that may never reach the cloud but its certainly not dark. We do a lot of data protection work and a decent portion of the Enterprise customers are storing at least some of their data on the cloud. The keys is redundancy and security (encryption)
You should do a little more than scan. Chromebooks are just about dead. Ultrabooks are already bound for death like their netbook predecessors. Google is not a sure bet in any of these technologies by a long shot.
I'll be the first to say it - welcome to Skynet, the first version.
What an idiotic statement.