Hunting the Squid, Part 2: Since When Is Enough Derivative Exposure To Blow Up The World Something To Be Ignored?

Reggie Middleton's picture

Welcome to part two of my series on Hunting the Squid, the
overvaluation and under-appreciation of the risks that is Goldman Sachs.
Since this highly analytical, but poignant diatribe covers a lot of
material, it's imperative that those who have not done so review part 1
of this series, I'm Hunting Big Game Today:The Squid On The Spear Tip, Part 1 & Introduction.
Once one and all have caught up, we can move on to answering the
question posed when we left off in The Squid On The Spear, namely So, When Does 3+5=4? When You Aggregate A Bunch Of Risky Banks & Then Pretend That You Didn't?
Condensed, Cliff Notes style hint - Goldman has the most shortable
share price of all the big banks at around $100 and is quite liquid; it
is more susceptible to mo-mo traders than it is to it's own book value,
it is highly levered into the European debt/banking mess, and last but
not least, Goldman is the derivatives risk concentration leader of the
world - bar none!

Click any and all graphics in this post to expand to print quality


we sit at the precipice of devastating European banking failure, upon
which Goldman is heavily levered into through excessive French exposure
(and you've seen how prescient our French banking analysis has been, bordering the prediction of the fall of Bear Stearns and Lehman),
I feel many of you should take heed when I say this bank's risk is
woefully underappreciated. As in the case of Bear, Lehman, Countrywide,
and a slew of other banks, the 10 minutes or so of your time to read
this heavy, fact filled piece could be worth a small fortune. While
we're at it, I would like to urge all paying BoomBustBlog subscribers  to (admiring the original artwork below, of course) to download and review the latest related documents on this topic:

  1. Goldmans Sachs Derivative Exposure: The Canary in the Coal Mine?
  2. Goldman Sachs Q3 Forensic Review - Retail or Professional levels
  3. Actionable Note on US Bank/ French Bank Run Contagion

You see, in said piece, ZeroHedge dutifully reported that Five Banks Account For 96% Of The $250 Trillion In Outstanding US Derivative Exposure- a very interesting refresh of what I called out two years ago through "The Next Step in the Bank Implosion Cycle???":

amount of bubbliciousness, overvaluation and risk in the market is
outrageous, particularly considering the fact that we haven't even come
close to deflating the bubble from earlier this year and last year! Even
more alarming is some of the largest banks in the world, and some of
the most respected (and disrespected) banks are heavily leveraged into
this trade one way or the other. The alleged swap hedges that these guys
allegedly have will be put to the test, and put to the test relatively
soon. As I have alleged in previous posts (As the markets climb on top of one big, incestuous pool of concentrated risk... ),
you cannot truly hedge multi-billion risks in a closed circle of only 4
counterparties, all of whom are in the same businesses taking the same

Click to expand!


This concept was further illustrated in An Independent Look into JP Morgan...

Click graph to enlarge (there is a typo in the graphic - billion should trillion)


ZeroHedge, and the market in general, appear to have a valid concern about one of these banks in particular - Morgan Stanley.


While I'm definitely not one dismiss the risks inherent in the Riskiest Bank on the Street, see The Truth Is Revealed About The Riskiest Bank On The Street - What Does That Say About The Newest Bank To Carry That Title?,
I do believe the equity market is missing the forest due to excessive
tree bark blocking its view. So, it's time to publicly pose the question
that I answered for subscribers months ago, and that is...

Goldmans Sachs Derivative Exposure the Canary in the Coal Mine?

The notional amount of derivatives held by insured U.S. commercial banks have increased at a CAGR of 22% since 2005, which naturally begs the question
“Has the value or the economic quantity of the underlying increased at a
similar pace, and if not does this indicate that everyone on the street
has doubled and tripled up their ‘bets’ on the SAME HORSE?”

Think about what happens if (or more aptly put, "when") that horse loses! Would there be anybody around to pay up?

Sequentially, the derivatives have increased every quarter since Q1-05 except for Q4-07, Q3-08 (Lehman crisis) and Q4-10 while on a YoY basis the growth has been positive throughout recorded history.  In Q2-2011, the notional value of derivative contracts increased 2% sequentially to $249 trillion. The notional value of derivatives was 12% higher than a year ago.
The notional amount of a derivative contract is a reference amount from
which contractual payments will be derived, but it is generally not an
amount at risk. However, the changes in notional volumes can provide
insight into potential revenue, and operational issues and potentially
the contagion risk that banks and financial institutions poses to the
wider economy – particularly in the form of counterparty risk delta. The
top four banks with the most derivatives activity hold 94% of all
derivatives, while the largest 25 banks account for nearly 100% of all
.  Overall, the US banks derivative exposure is $249 trillion and is more than four folds of World’s GDP at $58 trillion.

absolute terms, JPM leads this list with total notional value of
derivative contracts at $78 trillion, or 1.3x times the Wolds GDP.
However, in relative terms, Goldman Sachs leads the list with
total value of notional derivatives at 537 times is total assets
compared with 44x for JPM, 46x for Citi and 23x for US Banks (average).

what does this mean? Well, it should be assumed that Goldman is well
hedged for its exposure, at least on academic basis. The problem is its
academic. AIG has taught as that bilateral netting is tantamount to
bullshit at this level without government bailout intervention. If there
is any entity at risk of counterparty default or who is at the behest
of a government bailout if the proverbial feces hits the fan blades…
Ladies and gentlemen, that entity would be known as Goldman Sachs.

As excerpted from Goldmans Sachs Derivative Exposure: The Squid in the Coal Mine?, pages 2 and 3...


is much more highly leveraged into the derivatives trade than ANY and
ALL of its peers as to actually be difficult to chart. That stalk
representing Goldman's risk relative to EVERY OTHER banks is damn near
phallic in stature!


As opined earlier through the links "The Next Step in the Bank Implosion Cycle???"and As the markets climb on top of one big, incestuous pool of concentrated risk... ,
this is not a new phenomenon. Quite to the contrary, it has been a
constant trend through the bubble, and amazingly enough even through the
crash as banks have actually ratcheted up risk and assets in a blind
race to become TBTF (to big to fail), under the auspices of the
regulatory capture (see Lehman Dies While Getting Away With Murder: Introducing Regulatory Capture).
So, what is the logical conclusion? More phallic looking charts of
blatant, unbridled, and from a realistic perspective, unhedged RISK
starring none other than Goldman Sachs...


to think, many thought that JPM exposure vs World GDP chart was
provocative. I query thee, exactly how will GS put a real workable
hedge, a counterparty risk mitigating prophylactic if you will, over
that big green stalk that is representative of Total Credit Exposure to
Risk Based Capital? Short answer, Goldman may very well be to big for a
counterparty condom. If that's truly the case, all of you pretty, brand name Goldman counterparties
out there (and yes, there are a lot of y'all - GS really gets around),
expect to get burned at the culmination of that French banking party
I've been talking about for the last few quarters. Oh yeah, that
perpetually printing clinic also known as the Federal Reserve just might
be running a little low on that cheap liquidity antibiotic... Just
giving y'all a heads up ahead of time...


As you
read exactly how precarios the situation is in France (and Belgium,
through Dexia, et. al.) keep in mind that although this is definitely
not good news for Goldman's numbers, historically since the beginning of
this crisis, GS has actually correlated more with coke laced, red bull
juice powered mo-mo trader patterns than actual book value - reference
The Squid Is A Federally (Tax Payer) Insured Hedge Fund Paying Fat
Bonuses That Can't Trade In Volatile Markets? Who's Gonna Tell The
Shareholders and Tax Payer???
from just last reporting period...

I'd like to announce to the release of a blockbuster document
describing the true nature of Goldman Sachs, a description that you will
find no where else. It's chocked full of many interesting tidbits, and
for those who found "The French Government Creates A Bank Run? Here I Prove A Run On A French Bank Is Justified And Likely" to be an iteresting read, you're gonna just love this! Subscribers can access the document here:

As is customary, I am including free samples for those who don't subscribe, so you can get a taste of the forensic flavor. Here are the first 2 pages of the 19

page professional edition, with illustrative option trade setups soon to follow.


Is Goldman Sachs stock really the front running, Mo-Mo traders wet dream?


the high correlation of Goldman’s prop trading desk to equity markets
and taking into consideration the state of equity markets in Q2-Q3, it
would be interesting to see how Goldman Sachs share perform in the
coming quarters. Those who would have followed the traditional
school of thought and bid the price up would have already seen their
capital erode by 20% during the last quarter and by 12% over the last
one month alone.


What do you think happens when word of Goldman's true exposures get out? And I'm
not even half way through exposing just SOME of the dirt that
BoomBustBlog subscribers had access to back in July, when those Goldman
puts were nice and cheap!
Interested parties should click here to subscribe,
cause next up we walk through several other American banks to see who's
up for re-enacting 2008-9 put parade - and historically we have usually
if not always been ahead of the curve, particularly when compared to Wall Street and the sells side - see Did Reggie Middleton, a Blogger at BoomBustBlog, Best Wall Streets Best of the Best?

Another BIG Reason Why BNP Paribas (France's LARGEST BANK) Is Still Ripe For Implosion!

As excerpted from our professional series File Icon Bank Run Liquidity Candidate Forensic Opinion:


is how that document started off. Even if we were to disregard BNP's
most serious liquidity and ALM mismatch issues, we still need to address
the topic above. Now, if you were to employ the free BNP bank run
models that I made available in the post "The BoomBustBlog BNP Paribas "Run On The Bank" Model Available for Download"" (click the link to download your own copy of the bank run model, whether your a simple BoomBustBlog follower or a paid subscriber)
you would know that the odds are that BNP's bond portfolio would
probably take a much bigger hit than that conservatively quoted above. 
Here I demonstrated what more realistic numbers would look like in said
model... image008

note page 9 of that very same document addresses how this train of
thought can not only be accelerated, but taken much further...


how bad could this faux accounting thing be? You know, there were two
American banks that abused this FAS 157 cum Topic 820 loophole as well.
There names were Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers. I warned my readers
well ahead of time with them as well - well before anybody else
apparently had a clue (Is this the Breaking of the Bear? and Is Lehman really a lemming in disguise?).
Well, at least in the case of BNP, it's a potential tangible equity
wipeout, or is it? On to page 10 of said subscription document...


Yo, watch those level 2s! Of course there is more
to BNP besides overpriced, over leveraged sovereign debt, liquidity
issues and ALM mismatch, and lying about stretching Topic 820 rules, but
I think that's enough for right now. Is all of this already priced into
the free falling stock? Are these the ingredients for a European bank
run? I'll let you decide, but BoomBustBloggers Saw this coming midsummer
when this stock was at $50. Those who wish to subscribe to my research
and services should click here.
Those who don't subscribe can still benefit from the chronology that
led up to the BIG BNP short (at least those who have come across my
research for the first time)...

Thursday, 28 July 2011  The Mechanics Behind Setting Up A Potential European Bank Run Trastde and European Bank Run Trading Supplement

identify specific bank run candidates and offer illustrative trade
setups to capture alpha from such an event. The options quoted were
unfortunately unavailable to American investors, and enjoyed a literal
explosion in gamma and implied volatility. Not to fear, fruits of those
juicy premiums were able to be tasted elsewhere as plain vanilla shorts
and even single stock futures threw off insane profits.

Wednesday, 03 August 2011 France, As Most Susceptble To Contagion, Will See Its Banks Suffer

case the hint was strong enough, I explicitly state that although the
sell side and the media are looking at Greece sparking Italy, it is
France and french banks in particular that risk bringing the
Franco-Italia make-believe capitalism session, aka the French leveraged
Italian sector of the Euro ponzi scheme down, on its head.

I then provide a deep dive of the French bank we feel is most at risk. Let it be known that every banked remotely referenced by this research has been halved (at a mininal) in share price! Most are down ~10% of more today, alone!

The many ways to reach Reggie Middleton:

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Meet Reggie Middleton in person in NYC and London!

will be hosting two BoomBustBlog meet and greets, for those who aren't
too put off by my truthful, fact-based style. One in the next couple of
weeks in a swank, pretty people laden lounge in downtown Manhattan, and
the other potentially in London in mid-November - both wherein we sit
down and chew the fat about things financial, global macro and
socio-economic over drinks and heated debate. I will have plenty of
gratis BoomBustBlog research there as well. Those who are interested
should email the blog Customer Support for info.

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Georgesblog's picture

In the last quarter of 2007, I knew that the derivatives issue would raise it's ugly head. I knew the banks and the politicians were whistling past the graveyard on this issue. Hundreds of trillions?!!!!! Are they nuts? This is a whole lot more serious than coming up one horse short on a Superfecta play.

disabledvet's picture

I think GS is getting into looks more like base-jumping to me. I don't know...looks dangerous. Perhaps instead of "the Canary in the Coal Mine" you could call it "the Canary in the Wharf"?

rocker's picture

Too Good for Words


rosiescenario's picture

Cayman comes in at the number 3 spot for cross border to wonder what that represents.


I used to dive there before the banksters went and ruined it for normal folks.

slackrabbit's picture

Hey Reggie

What are your thought on  BNP's exposure to Russian losses? Just curious as there doesnt seem any dat on it - or news?

ebworthen's picture

Reggie - you are looking buff.

Did WB7 help you with that first graphic? Nice work whoever did it.

Derivatives exposure 4X  WORLD GDP!?!?

No wonder MS and GS are crashing.

Kill the Vampire Squid!!!! (and keep them from enslaving our progency through illegal debt taxation and currency debauching schemes, a.k.a. = END THE FED!!!).

Keep up the good work; my Claymore and War Hammer stand ready to assist you in our quest.

bankruptcylawyer's picture

if goldman has to crash ladn on something, i hope it is your abs of steel.


damn you iz ripped reggie!.

as usual, you the man.


falak pema's picture

...interrelationship between acute masculinity and propensity for intense intellectual confrontation...

This is an interesting thread in terms of symbolism and I'll pick up the gauntlet. By presenting a counter thread...

Now imagine an ice cream cone...dripping with strawberry slush in bulbous cups on top, like symbols of feminine seduction...will the crunchy cone stem incite the cups to cum in acute meltdown of derivative type through intense confrontational interrelationship with propensus male conical protrudence, intellectually galvanised into total crunchitude for the cause of feminine plentitude?

That would be african jungle musical encounters of third type. I'm thinking Miriam Makeba or Shade...

aerial view's picture

Nice work RM. Aren't GS and the rest counting on TBTF backup again and basically playing with the Fed's infinite money printers as recent GAO audit showed $16 trillion secretly given to US and foreign banks at 0% interest with no strings attached?  

nah's picture

splode the squid


throw everyone else in prison

JR's picture

If there is any entity at risk of counterparty default or who is at the behest
of a government bailout if the proverbial feces hits the fan blades…
Ladies and gentlemen, that entity would be known as Goldman Sachs… it has been a constant trend through the bubble, and amazingly enough even through the crash as banks have actually ratcheted up risk and assets in a blind
race to become TBTF (too big to fail), under the auspices of the
regulatory capture… Oh yeah, that perpetually printing clinic also known as the Federal Reserve just might be running a little low on that cheap liquidity antibiotic... Just giving y'all a heads up ahead of time... -- Reggie Middleton

The appointment of Mario Draghi puts Goldman alums in charge of the European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada (where Mark Carney is the Canadian Greenspan), and the World Bank with Robert Zoellick, and of course, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York where William Dudley sits at the helm of all Goldman decision-making policy for Bernanke at the Fed, after Goldman’s Robert Rubin protégé Timothy Geithner left the NYFed to take over the U.S. Treasury from former Goldman CEO Hank Paulson who, with Benjamin Bernanke, protégé of Israel’s Central Bank Governor, Stanley Fischer, destroyed Bank of America by designating it the cartel’s scapegoat.

The courage of a few brave men, armed with the knowledge provided by the Middletons, Taibbis and Durdens, one day will take on this cartel, and we’ll see them scatter like cock roaches exposed to the light.

Thanks again, Reggie.


GS already did some minor pan handling for spare change at the FED. So, they go back for a 900 trillion dollar touch this time. No problem, Bennie Bux are easy to find if you are a bankster club card carrying member - problem solved! All you American taxpayers - get back to work to pay for the free money, willya?

The Federal Reserve is neither Federal nor a "Reserve". This private bank run by the "Bank of England" has been stripping the US of its assets since the days of Andrew Jackson.  If the $16,000,000,000,000.00 given away secretly, since 2007, to the member banks isn't reason enough to overhaul our entire government financial system then our country is doomed to financial failure. You won't read this in the mainstream media....but it may emerge in the coming elections. Read about this first ever audit of the Fed and understand why we are in such trouble.  Tuesday, September 27, 2011 First Ever GAO Audit Of The Federal Reserve

(You can click on the site and read the report).

The first ever GAO audit of the Federal Reserve was carried out in the past few months due to the Ron Paul, Alan Grayson Amendment to the Dodd-Frank bill, which passed last year. Jim DeMint, a Republican Senator, and Bernie Sanders, an independent Senator, led the charge for a Federal Reserve audit in the Senate, but watered down the original language of the house bill (HR1207), so that a complete audit would not be carried out. Ben Bernanke, Alan Greenspan, and various other bankers vehemently opposed the audit and lied to Congress about the effects an audit would have on markets. Nevertheless, the results of the first audit in the Federal Reserve nearly 100 year history were posted on Senator Sanderâs webpage earlier this morning.   (Summarized below)

What was revealed in the audit was startling:

$16,000,000,000,000.00 (TRILLION) had been secretly given out to US banks and corporations and foreign banks everywhere from France to Scotland. From the period between December 2007 and June 2010, the Federal Reserve had secretly bailed out many of the worldâs banks, corporations, and governments. The Federal Reserve likes to refer to these secret bailouts as an all-inclusive loan program, but virtually none of the money has been returned and it was loaned out at 0% interest.

Why the Federal Reserve had never been public about this or even informed the United States Congress about the $16 trillion dollar bailout is obvious the American public would have been outraged to find out that the Federal Reserve bailed out foreign banks while Americans were struggling to find jobs. To place $16 trillion into perspective, remember that GDP of the United States is only $14.12 trillion. The entire national debt of the United States government spanning its 200+ year history is only $14.5 trillion.

The budget that is being debated so heavily in Congress and the Senate is only $3.5 trillion. Take all of the outrage and debate over the $1.5 trillion deficit into consideration, and swallow this Red pill: There was no debate about whether $16,000,000,000,000 would be given to failing banks and failing corporations around the world. In late 2008, the TARP Bailout bill was passed and loans of $800 billion were given to failing banks and companies. 
That was a blatant lie considering the fact that Goldman Sachs alone received 814 billion dollars. As is turns out, the Federal Reserve donated $2.5 trillion to Citigroup, while Morgan Stanley received $2.04 trillion. The Royal Bank of Scotland and Deutsche Bank, a German bank, split about a trillion and numerous other banks received hefty chunks of the $16 trillion. ****


When you have conservative Republican stalwarts like Jim DeMint(R-SC) and Ron Paul(R-TX) as well as self-identified Democratic socialists like Bernie Sanders all fighting against the Federal Reserve, you know that it is no longer an issue of Right versus Left. When you have every single member of the Republican Party in Congress and progressive Congressmen like Dennis Kucinich sponsoring a bill to audit the Federal Reserve, you realize that the Federal Reserve is an entity onto itself, which has no oversight and no accountability.


Americans should be swelled with anger and outrage at the abysmal state of affairs when an unelected group of bankers can create money out of thin air and give it out to megabanks and super-corporations like Halloween candy.


The list of institutions which received the most money from the Federal Reserve can be found on page 131 of the GAO Audit and are as follows:

Citigroup: $2.5 trillion($2,500,000,000,000)
Morgan Stanley: $2.04 trillion ($2,040,000,000,000)
Merrill Lynch: $1.949 trillion ($1,949,000,000,000)
Bank of America: $1.344 trillion ($1,344,000,000,000)
Barclays PLC (United Kingdom): $868 billion* ($868,000,000,000)
Bear Sterns: $853 billion ($853,000,000,000)
Goldman Sachs: $814 billion ($814,000,000,000)
Royal Bank of Scotland (UK): $541 billion ($541,000,000,000)
JP Morgan Chase: $391 billion ($391,000,000,000)
Deutsche Bank (Germany): $354 billion ($354,000,000,000)
UBS (Switzerland): $287 billion ($287,000,000,000)
Credit Suisse (Switzerland): $262 billion ($262,000,000,000)
Lehman Brothers: $183 billion ($183,000,000,000)
Bank of Scotland (United Kingdom): $181 billion ($181,000,000,000)
BNP Paribas (France): $175 billion ($175,000,000,000)






chubbar's picture

You may want to read this report by Rob Kirby that debunks the claim that the FED put out 16 Trillion in stimulus. Not sure what it means other than there was some pretty lazy folks looking at that report.


Ted K's picture

Reggie, I'm white and frankly, I don't give a shit if that's the look you wanna go with, I get the theme----BUT

I'm not too sure if I was an African American if I would want to go with the long spear in the middle of the wilderness.  I mean, other than 3 guys sitting on the curb with malt liquor, there's not too much worse you could go with there.

Just saying....

JR's picture

This comment is an excellent example of how the Liberals have manipulated our civilization to destroy itself, to use the simple minded to help injure the brotherhood of man for their nefarious purposes.

This is one reason I am a hater of Liberalism.  As Taylor Caldwell invariably replied, "I have had painful, scarring, personal experiences with it and it is not just an ideological matter.  As a peaceful person, I am willing to live and let live.  But the Liberal will not, if he can help it, let you live in peace, or coming down to the matter, let you live at all.”

Georgesblog's picture

It just goes to show how much our culture has changed in 5 generations. It used to be, back in the good old Founding Era days, Liberals would have been called Libertines, lawless people. In fact, most of the Founding Fathers would have called them Heathens and hustled them out the door, on the end of a boot. Don't count Thomas Paine as a judge of character. He wore out his welcome in America and jumped to France, just in time to get on board with the Humanist revolution. Hitler called his movement " the exact counterpart  to the French Revolution". We have forgotten the difference between License and Liberty. Having been indoctrinated into a society of subsidy and tribute, people now depend on government to rob their neighbors for their gain. We need to go back and retrace our steps.

Reggie Middleton's picture

That's only if you're ashamed of your heritage, my friend. I'm quite proud of mine, and you'd probably to if you knew more about it. Notice how when I went with the Japanese and Spanish themes, nobody thought of it as condescending, but when I go African with a little extra melanin...

asparagui's picture


GCT's picture

Actually It is good to see a proud man.  Hell women are doing their best to feminize us.  Sad but true story.  My brother comes over complaining about out his wife spending his money and I told him to grab his balls and talk to her.  His reply floored me,  "She has my balls on the mantle so not alot I can do!!"  I spit my beer on him I was laughing so hard!!!


Green Leader's picture

Green Leader's only withstanding concern is whether you are able to do your own landscaping...

Joy on Maui's picture

counterparty risk mitigating prophylactic?  = buying the London Metals Exchange (?)

(in progress as we speak)

PulauHantu29's picture

GS has no risk. It is backed 100% open window by Ben & Timmy (aka the USA taxpayers).

BTW, please pass the KY....

MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

LMAO!  Reggie carries his balls in a wheelbarrow...

adr's picture

I'll buy yours if you'll buy mine.

Well at Goldman we'll buy all of yours because I'll get mine from a Stein.

Dingleberry's picture

JPM, GS, et al, just devevloped a "poison pill" with this now YOU go begging to bail THEM out, and they laugh all the way to (their own) bank.  At least that's what my Congresscritter did. And he got re-elected.

LawsofPhysics's picture

Well, either Goldman is correct and everybody else is wrong, or that is one big scalding hot potato that is about to get dropped.

I did it by Occident's picture

More like a W61 Warhead (nuclear) set to go off at any time.

SWRichmond's picture

counterparty risk mitigating prophylactic

Bless you, this one's a keeper.

anony's picture

Love to read this, but the Speartrucker reminds me I gotta do some bow coo serious work on my Abs.

I did it by Occident's picture

yeah, Reggie, you're making all of us feel bad about our own lack of exercise! 

Hook Line and Sphincter's picture

Derivative pecs!

Mngabo Middleton will kick your ass!