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I ask the MSM, Why Keep Telling A Joke That's Just Not Funny? Enter The NAR
Bloomberg reports: Sales of U.S. Existing Homes Increased More Than Forecast
21
Sep 2011 Of all purchases, cash transactions accounted for about 29
percent, the same as in July, Jed Smith, managing director of research
at the NAR, said in a news conference today...
Sep 2011 Of all purchases, cash transactions accounted for about 29
percent, the same as in July, Jed Smith, managing director of research
at the NAR, said in a news conference today...
...
The 7.7 percent increase left purchases at a five-month high 5.03
million annual rate, the National Association of Realtors said today in
Washington.
The 7.7 percent increase left purchases at a five-month high 5.03
million annual rate, the National Association of Realtors said today in
Washington.
...
The median price of a previously owned home dropped 5.1 percent to
$168,300 from $177,300 in August 2010, today’s report showed.
The median price of a previously owned home dropped 5.1 percent to
$168,300 from $177,300 in August 2010, today’s report showed.
Existing-home sales, tabulated when a contract closes, rose 19 percent from the same month last year.
Housing Inventory
The
number of previously owned homes on the market declined 3 percent to
3.58 million. At the current sales pace, it would take 8.5 months to
sell those houses, down from 9.5 months at the end of the prior month.
Month’s supply in the seven months to eight months range is consistent with stable home prices, the group said.
Of
all purchases, cash transactions accounted for about 29 percent, the
same as in July, Jed Smith, managing director of research at the NAR,
said in a news conference today as the figures were released.
Distressed
sales, comprised of foreclosures and short sales, in which the lender
agrees to a transaction for less than the balance of the mortgage,
accounted for 31 percent of the total in August, up from 29 percent in
the prior month.
“Investors were more active in absorbing foreclosed properties,” Lawrence Yun,
the group’s chief economist, said in a statement. Investors accounted
for 22 percent of purchases in August, up from 18 percent the previous
month.
And to think, I thought Bloomberg got the message.
A First In The History Of Mainstream Media? NAR Is Identified As A Joke!
So,
what's my beef with the National Association of Realtors? Well, quite
frankly they are simply doing their job, which is lobbying on behalf and
marketing the interests of realtors in the US. The fact of the matter
is that they not only undermine the credibility of all in the profession
but purposefully mislead those who may not have the money to spare into
flushing said hard earned dollars down the toilet, all of the sake of a
2.5% commission split. Let's take this step by step, shall we?
On Tuesday, February 22nd, 2011 at 3:14 pm I posted "When Will the Mainstream Media Be Ready To Call The NAR The Sham That It Really Is?" wherein I laughed at the WSJ article that illustrated where the NAR's housing data may have understated extend of collapse.
But of course, it understated said collapse. If one were to peruse the
history of the NAR and their paid marketers economists one will see a
very long history of such.
The NAR video from 2008 saying that
buying opportunities have never been better| buying now is a key to
building long term wealth | there are a lot of buyers in the market to
buy your home, etc. while I was saying the commercial and residential
real estate markets are in the beginning of a long term collapse...
This is David Lereah, the NAR chief economist in 2006...
Then again, one can peruse David Lereah's literary prose, circa 2006-7...
Absolutely exquisite insight!!!
It's not just David. After moving on, Lawrence Yun (David's successor)
got nearly 8 minutes on Bloomberg (hopefully, I will get the chance to get 10 or 15 minutes to truly illustrate the lay of the land from an unbiased, empirical, investor's perspective sometime soon) to say that 2008 was an opportune time for buyers who want to own a home
Here's Dr. Yun with more good news for home sellers in 2008. Ohhhh, the optimism!!!
In July 2008 Yun stated “I think we are very near to the end of the housing downturn,” Yun said (AP News).
Lawrence
Yun, chief economist for the Realtors, said that the housing rescue
bill should play a major role in helping the housing market to rebound.
He said an especially significant feature is a tax break worth up to
$7,500 for first-time home buyers who purchase between April 9 of this
year and July 1, 2009. Yun estimated that up to 3 million first-time
home buyers could qualify for that tax break, providing a significant
boost to sales at a critical time. “I think we are very near to the end of the housing downturn,” Yun said.
As a point of reference..
Of course, I can go on…
In 2007 Lawrence Yun state there would be no recession in 2008, according to USA Today.
Of course, in that year I took the opposite side of that trade and said
very bad things were coming. As it turned out I was a tad bit
optimistic: Correction, and further thoughts on the topic, How Far Will US Home Prices Drop?, and Is this the Breaking of the Bear?
(Yeah, the Bear Stearns and Lehman Brother’s collapse were an easy
calls if you read the balance sheets and were realistic about leverage
and the real estate situation). This was also about the time I got into
it with GGP’s CFO for calling out their insolvency. He called me names,
and then they filed for bankruptcy. Of course, they had an investment
grade and buy ratings from the ratings agencies and the sell side: BoomBustBlog.com’s answer to GGP’s latest press release and Another GGP update coming… (among over 700 pages of analysis, review the January 2008 archives or search for “GGP” for more research).
In my post “On the Latest Housing Numbers” of Tuesday, November 24th, 2009, I quipped.
Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist volunteered,
“We
have seen some bulk purchases by investors, but we are not picking up
that data through the Multiple Listing Service or through our release
data, but we do know that there is some bulk purchases by investors who
plan on releasing those properties within a year’s time, when they see a
better market condition.”
I don’t believe
“better” market conditions are coming any time soon. We are just coming
off of the best market conditions anyone will see in their lifetime.
Those market conditions were predicated upon unsustainable conditions,
hence they came crashing down. They are crashing down, not crashed – as
in past tense. I believe we have some ways to go. That is why I am not
buying real estate, and I believe that those that are jumping in now are
jumping in prematurely.
Personally, I don’t consider Mr. Yun to
be a credible source, either. He may be smart and capable, but the
extreme bias of his employer (the ultimate real property perma-bull) and
the incredibly biased reports of his predecessor color his opinions by
default. He is not nearly as bad as David Lereah (who was literally
sensationalist-style perma-bullish) was, but he is still not objective.
See The Reggie Middleton Real Estate IQ Test – Who believes the NAR?
This is an excerpt from that post on Tuesday, 08 January 2008
From CNBC.com: Home Sales Seen Holding Steady In Coming Months
Pending
sales of existing U.S. homes inched lower in November and should hold
steady over the next few months, a real estate trade group said. (I
ask, “Why should they do that? Credit is tighter, recession evidence is
stronger. Supply is greater, and demand is lower. Hmmm, let me consult
the book written by that ex-NAR guru for the answer.” )The
National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index, based on
contracts signed in November, dropped 2.6% in November, to 87.6 from an
upwardly revised 89.9 in October.Economists polled by
Reuters ahead of the report were expecting pending home sales to decline
by 0.5 percent from October’s originally reported 87.2.The November number was down 20% from a year earlier.
The
pending homes sales data suggests that the volume of sales will hold
steady for a while before turning upwards before the end of the year,
said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun.
With all
due respect to Mr. Yun, Mr. Lereah and the NAR, anyone swift enough to
complete the registration form for this blog should know, by now, to
discount this association’s data and opinions. They do not do the
industry justice with this nonsense. Realtors should actually be the
first in the protest line. It is their credibility that is being called
into question, for this is THEIR trade group. Credibility is the key!
Notice
how accurate that NAR prediction was for 2007 and 2008! We are
actually in a real estate depression, and no amount of flowery
commercials with cute little girls can counteract this fact.
- In Case You Didn’t Get The Memo, The US Is In a Real Estate Depression That Is About To Get Much Worse
- Further Proof Of The Worsening Of The Real Estate Depression
- Reggie Middleton ON CNBC’s Fast Money Discussing Hopium in Real Estate
So,
I query the mainstream media, "At what point do these clowns lose
credibility?" For consumers of such media, at what point will you refuse
to view said clowns?
I'm not in the business of giving out buying
advice to potential homeowners, but if I were a home buyer and I cared
about capital depreciation in the near to medium term, I would
definitely hold off. I have crunched the numbers for March 2011 and
calculated the most recent shadow inventory numbers for subscribers. It
ain't pretty. Click here for the PDF summary (
Shadow Inventory Update) and click here for the embedded spreadsheet
with the latest numbers, graphs, projections and calculations (note
that this is actually a very large model, so be sure to scroll past the
first 6 or 7 graph tabs to access the raw data and calculations behind
them). You can increase the magnification of your browser if you want a
larger view of the embedded model.
Subscribers have access to
all of the data and analysis used to create these charts, in addition to
a more granular application, by state in the SCAP template and by
region in housing price and charge off templates – see
House price data, 2nd Quarter 2010- Bank Charge-offs and Recoveries 2Q10
- The
very extensive SCAP Assumptions, showing the credit metrics banks
needed to submit for the stress tests of 2009, Updated for last quarter
on a state by state basis_09082010 Web
The
3rd Quarter in Review, and More Importantly How the Shadow Inventory
System in the US is Disguising the Equivalent of a Dozen Ambac
Bankruptcies! Wednesday, November 10th, 2010: All paying subscribers can download the full shadow inventory report here: Foreclosures & Shadow Inventory. Professional and Institutional subscribers should also download the accompanying data and analysis sheet in Excel – Shadow Inventory.
Banks,
Monolines, and Ratings Agencies As The Three Card Monte (Wall)Street
Hustlers! Its a Sucker’s Bet, Who’s Going to Fall for it in QE2? Tuesday, November 9th, 2010
The Truth Goes Viral, Pt 1: Housing Prices, Economic Sales and the State of Depression Tuesday, October 5th, 2010
- advertisements -
Mornin Reginald,
This will be yet anoter day in which I stick my chest out against manipulation, confident they haven't the sand to see this through, and laugh a hearty laugh from up here on olympus.
I'll tell Zeus you said wazzup!
In the mean time it'll be another day of tennis, hoi polloi gossip and meetings with lawyers...oh, so you'd like me to elaborate on my head-space. My pleasure:
here is janus now, out in God's Awesomeness, always scouting that perfect cross-court return volly (heavy with top spin). but, janus is sad; mourning an america lost forever (PS this is almost exactly what janus now looks like -- at least in the scene with Royal)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EewT0T12xF4
here is janus's all time tennis hero -- JANUS LOVES JOHNNY MAC!!!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=koE_e_LX4c0&feature=related
(is johnny mac a genius? -- oh, FUCK YES!!! PS. ZHealots, we are living in tennis's golden age; mcenroe calling, nadal and federer on center court! bitchez, you don't know what you're missin)
here's janus later today meeting an 'old friend' for a few cocktails overlooking the alabama river:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bl6FbeoXeHQ
and then later, janus's breakthrough moment:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QKnvD5Ok5iY&feature=related
janus is ultimately a salesman; and is intended to live a robust life. i'll be back later tonight to tell a great story somewhere on ZH.
in the meantime, nadal highlights and a themesong for the day...
(OH SNAP!!!! NO SHIT, WAS JUST LEFT VOICEMAIL BY old friend)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0UvEDztti7c
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nir4BnNIFmg
have fun in front of your incadescant monitors, bitchez!
if i could make the world as pure and strange as what i see/
i'd put you in the mirror i put in front of me, i put in front of me/
linger on your pale blue eyes,
janus
Where I live in Northern California (and am sure this is nationwide), the agents don't include houses that have been foreclosed upon in their comps. They show prospective buyers and sellers what the "market" is and withhold this information. No wonder most sellers haven't lowered their lofty expectations and why there are few buyers.
Where are all the realtards saying rents are going up?
http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/financial-siren-call-of-low-mortgage-...
Wow, rents up a whopping 1% in Los Angeles over the last year.
Reggie, realtards don't want housing prices to go down because their payout depends on higher prices. But realtards aren't the smartest bunch of folks. Lower prices mean more activity. 6% of nothing is still nothing, you idiots.
Actually I do not feel bad at all. She has since retired her license and not due to the downturn. She has an MBA and is now working somewhere else. I wish we could all be experts and predict the future like you do Andy. Most real estate agents like most everyone else will stare at you when you talk finances.
Just like most that probably come here few were spekaing out about the coming crash and those that did were marginalized.
http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/thu-october-7-2010/mortgage-bankers-as...
__________________________________________________________
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/02/mba-walksaway-from-hq/
___________________________________________________
NYT:
"The Way We Live Now Walk Away From Your Mortgage!"http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/10/magazine/10FOB-wwln-t.html
What a mess!
Nice work, Reggie!
Although I am not a savy investor like alot of you, I am a historian. The last time it took 10 years to clear the bust. The mainstream media, the NAHB and NRA can crow all they like. This housing problem is going to take a decade to clear and only if the Government will stay out of the darn market. Like I tell my builder friends, it is time to get into remodeling until this clears up.
If the new jobs being created are the new standard this will take longer then a decade as housing prices will continue to fall further.
Running man taking pity is one thing, taking advantage of clueless buyers is another. My wife is a licensed realtor so I know the pain. I just get so pissed off that organizations are telling we are again recovering when the facts speak differently. Currently there is no way I would buy into alot of markets in this country.
why remodel when you can move to a nicer home that costs less than your house that needs remodelling?
Man, I feel so bad for you. Its really hard to be awash in FED money just because you have a pair of tits and can nod your head. I wonder how often, in 2006 or 2007, your wife told buyers that real estate was souring in other places but not yours and now its the best time to buy or be priced out forever.
Do us a favor and donkey punch your wife one for us, just because.
p.s. - is this you?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNmcf4Y3lGM
Realtors (aka optimists) have it tough Reggie. When housing was booming, they could be bullish and proven right over and over again. Now they just have hope, squashed daily by bids below asking, few/no bids on properties, and greatly diminished commissions. Why can't you take pity?
Mindsets have finally started to change on housing - no one wants the second home if you have no time to stay in it because you are working too hard and fearful of losing your job and still need to pay the upkeep and property taxes, despite rampant food and everything inflation, and have enough problems with the current home and no money to fix it up let alone enjoy yourself. Where's the fun in real estate now?
Interestingly, bank L&CD and RE loans finally souring again after a lag (mark to mystery)... next leg down is upon us. Bullish to be sure. Green shoots anyone? [waits for echo]
NAR's Mantra: Deny, deny, deny.
Now only prospective homebuyers have to do the same and their dreams will come true too.
I suppose they are counting all the homes that have lost %95 of their inflated value?
Homes that sell for $1 dollar to $50,000 are a sign of the times and not something to cheer as a "recovery".
But hey, they will use any news to prop up the markets...