This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
The Inexplicable American Consumer Strikes Again
By Wolf Richter www.testosteronepit.com
The recent consumer confidence indices, after a pickup in the spring, have collapsed to levels not seen in years and in some cases in decades. Yet the inexplicable American consumer, the toughest and most indefatigable creature out there that no one has yet been able to beat down, struck again. Consumer spending increased at an annual rate of 2.4% during the third quarter, though the mood, as measured by the confidence indices, has become outright morose.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index dropped to -51.1. By comparison, it averaged -46.2 so far in 2011, -45.7 in 2010, and -47.9 in 2009. The shocker was this number: 95% of the people surveyed had a negative opinion about the economy, the worst reading since April 2009, and just 1% away from the worst reading since the index began in 1985.
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index plummeted to 39.8, the lowest level since March 2009, at the trough of the great recession. The Present Situation Index fell to 26.3 from 33.3, its sixth consecutive monthly decline.
"Consumer confidence is now back to levels last seen during the 2008-2009 recession ... as pessimism about the current economic environment continues to grow," said Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center, on October 25 when the Confidence Board released its numbers.
Mid October, it was the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's preliminary index that headed south. Its sub-index for consumer expectations six months from now, which gauges future consumer spending, dropped to 47, the lowest since May 1980.
The reasons are obvious. The Fed is winning its 12-year war on real wages. Its mechanism: create inflation that exceeds nominal wage increases. The numbers are ugly. According to today's GDP report, real disposable personal income—income adjusted for inflation and taxes—decreased by 1.7% in the third quarter (BEA). Since their peak in 1999, real wages have dropped 9%. Median household income—a function of wages and unemployment—has fallen 9.8% between December 2007 and June 2011 (Sentier Research). For many people, the situation is even worse due to the skyrocketing costs of healthcare and higher education, which are eating up an ever greater part of the declining family budget (for more: A Dysfunctional System That Bankrupts A Generation). And Unemployment remains a fiasco by any measure: U-6, the broadest measure the Bureau of Labor Statistics offers, and the one that most closely resembles reality, hovers at 16.5%.
And yet the inexplicable American consumer went ... to the mall. And to the doctor—of the $10.8 trillion in consumer spending (seasonally adjusted annual rate), $1.76 trillion went to healthcare, about half of which was paid for by government. And healthcare has been on a tear, up 6% over the same period last year.
Back to the mall. The worse things get, it seems, the more consumers pull out their credit cards—confirmed by the savings rate which dropped to 4.1% from 5.1% in the second quarter. The effect of shopping as a drug against the funk of daily life has been well established, though its impact on the mood of the shopper has proven to be ephemeral. Now the drug has worn off, and as the confidence indices show, consumers feel worse than before, worse than in years. That can only mean that they will return to the mall to shop till they drop.
Or they will cave. Though the miraculous powers of the inexplicable American consumer should never be underestimated, some uncomfortable indicators have been accumulating. Among them, my favorite:
“It is hard to imagine a very robust holiday season compared to last year,” Blake Jorgensen, Chief Financial Officer of Levi Strauss warned earlier in October. He was griping that his price increases of $5 to $15 per pair of jeans didn't sit well with consumers. (Duh, did you think the American consumer is stupid? Disclosure: the only jeans I've ever bought were Levi's, but I'm going to wear mine down to rags before I pay fifty bucks for a new pair. Hint, Mr. Jorgensen: I'd be willing to buy two for the price of one right now, or none for a couple of years. Do the math and think about it.)
On the other end of the big American mall, during bailout mania, the Fed handed out trillions of dollars in secret. But now... The GAO Audit of the Fed Doesn't Quite Call It 'Corruption'
Wolf Richter www.testosteronepit.com
»
- advertisements -
saw an article last month that said credit card companies are ramping up business to the less that credity worthy once again.
this can't end well.
a paycheck-to-oaycheck co-worker is maxed out on his one credit card, and has no saved cash. living on the razor thin edge of being able to pay all his creditors.
am thinking this behavior is the norm.
he's been through 1 bankrupcy already. go figure.
if you have not read "Brave New World" all these obvious false economic reports tend to confuse..
Our happy leader and his police state HLS are Our friends
war is peace ..love government above all else..peace is war..
So they are still shopping, just not enjoying it.
The American has historically been the most vociferous devotee of consumerism the world has ever seen. Habits and conditioning are very hard to break, so they are still going to the malls to spend money they neither have nor earned on goods they neither need nor use. The mall rats have become the mall zombies, wandering the empty aisles often dragging their screaming spawn in search of that-thing-we-saw-on-tv, to fill their shopping bags with ipods and itampons that are poor substitutes for the gaping holes in their empty hearts and empty minds.
There's no mystery what's going on. Americans hunkered down in 2008 and tried to delay spending as much as possible. Unfortunately, time works its magic, and things start to break down. When the car breaks down, the washer needs fixing, the dishwasher needs replacing, etc., you whip out the plastic and do it. Hence, consumer spending and consumer debt rise during a Depression. It's the squeeze of time.
On a Lighter Note:
SIBERIA's BERWICK SWANS
I'm watching for the Berwick Swans of Siberia, and their arrival in Slimhedge, England. (catchy name for a town)
These remarkable birds live in Siberia and fly to England for the winter.
They have always been "dead-on-recon" as far as the severity of the Winters in Europe and usually North America are concerned. And their record goes back thousands of years. They know something we don't.
Last year they were 2 weeks early indicating a very rough winter, and it was.
Stay tuned. I will update as soon as I hear.
how much of that consumer spending was for guns , ammo, and freeze dried foods etc.....
“Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be a convenience store, not a government agency”.
“An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen today.” - Laurence J. Peter
I'm buying goods like there's no tomorrow because there might not be...at least not what we're used to.
We are Americans!
We arent pussies like the rest of the world.
Nothing will stop us from spending, certainly not a little thing called debt. Debt will never stop a real American!
You bet, as a protest against our fascist officialdom, I don't fly, don't travel, minimun cash balance in checking accnt and keeping my wallet shut!
Isn't it possible that this report is "horse hockey", as Col. Potter would say?
Every month 'the government' comes out with the unemployment numbers and three weeks later revise them, after 'holding steady' or 'slightly improving', to show that it actually got worse. But, by then, no one cares cuz Britney showed her cooze getting out of the limo.
Also, isn't the run up in the market funny considering Oblunder is failing badly and we are now entering a period that falls within 1 year from the election. Americans have short attention spans. This guy is so far up Wall Street's butt of course they are going to support him. And, the ignorant (majority of Americans) link the Dow going up to improved economics. His approval numbers just took a big jump. He keeps the rates artificially low so that ordinary Americans, in order to have a chance to build their wealth, need to gamble in this market. Who makes out from that...I know I'm preachin' to the choir but maybe the numbers are crap.
Is a collapse inevitable, or master minded, maybe, but right now, look for a bull run to keep this guy in power. I'm just sayin'...
"He keeps the rates artificially low so that ordinary Americans, in order to have a chance to build their wealth, need to gamble in this market."
Maybe this line should be re-written,
How about: "He keeps the rates artificially low so that ordinary Americans will think that credit is cheap and will flock to the malls to spend their money - especially since it doesn't grow in a savings account".
Like that better?
The problem is that the most recent reports show contracting consumer credit, meaning any growth in consumer buying would have to be on a cash basis, yet that cannot be because incomes have been dropping in both real and nominal terms. That leaves only one source of funding for any upticks in consumer spending, they must ergo be taking that cash away from something else they formerly spent upon, like mortgages.
Since GDP is reported as gross economic activity less an adjustment for inflation, the "GDP deflator," the culprit there has to be a deflator that does not account for true inflation. If you have 10% inflation but only report and deflate 2% then GDP will look apx. like it grew by 8% when it in reality has not changed. That is why they use a deflator in the first place. But, if you have 10% inflation and deflate by a bogus 2% and yet GDP only grew by 2.5% then what you really had was a GDP contracting by 5.5%. Now, that 5.5% GDP contraction might actually be an improvement over past quarters and thus trigger a bear market rally, but it is still in real terms a contraction.
Considering the amount of stimulus they have to keep shooting into the economies' IV; bailouts, PPT, backstops in the trillions, tax reductions, low interest rates, it simply dwarves what was done in the 1930's and yet only seems to have stabilized the freefall off the cliff, not made any metric of finance or economics actually better. Every "green shoot" we have seen since the end of 207 has withered and died before it could even be recognized as such. For example, we now are at a pretty stable 400,000 per week new unemployment claims (leaving aside the phony birth/death and such for the sake of brevity) but in 52 weeks of the year that is 21 million losing their jobs. Most will go back to work or find new jobs, but at lower pay and lower if any benefits. Downward mobility.
People aren't buying things in Arkansas.
They are focused on Maslow's lower levels -- food, shelter
I've got some sort of loan out to 60% of my employees. Broken cars. DUI's. Sick mothers in Oklahoma.
Can we not find a real capitalist to run for President? Cronyism and ... what? What is Obama? A freakin machurian Candidate.
Things will turn around ... the dad gum country is going to explode.
Maybe stupid Americans aren't actually spending their monopoly money on stuff at Walmart.
Maybe that apparent uptick in confidence (and GDP) was just a reflection of people finally buying PM.
Oh well, maybe not, but it seemed like a nice thought.
Jeans were really cheap about a year ago. I bought about 30 pants 16 months ago for imperfects at 19.00 for two. They had a wad of 34x32 for ten dollars per pair including shipping that happened to fit myself and two other employees. The other two got fat and outgrew them. I lost weight and they are now loose. I cannot see how they are seconds, but that was the listing.
I have enough to last me 'till I croak. They are close enough to the Levi all imports that I wasn't too concerned.
Idiots only pay more for brand names that come out of the same slave labor camp. I used to buy all USA made work pants and insisted that my family justify anything other than redneck made goods. As all of you know that there is hardly anything made for we lowlifes in the USA anymore, so I go for high quality at low price. There is such a thing. Durable and somewhat stylish pants can be had for eight pairs for a month of smartphone service.
As Mrs. Slocolmbe used to say to Captain Peacock, "it must be magic being maried to you." :)
I did spend more than usual during the last 6 months, but that was in stocking up on supplies in case things really fall apart. I wonder how much of that 2.4% growth might have come from people preparing for potential disaster.
I bought a pile of goods from COSTCO too. Not one of my employees has the slightest interest in taking up my deal of giving them a 50% reduction on a year's worth of food. They do't even want to try it as some is freeze dried vegetables.
The Costco site is the best value for price, but a lot of it is vegetable that is no where as good as Doritos and pop.
No mas.
Many months ago one of the Tylers picked up on my notice that so called "survivor foods" were really cheap on Costco.
My point was that these goods were at all time lows (by a lot) from what they would have cost in US silver coin and gold coin.
I still insist that the clots that keep harping on silver as money are the ones that refuse to give a thought to just how cheap their survival is in terms of their silver money.
The last buy was a Costco deal of supposedly "One year for Four People" at USD3100.00 That comes to (kitco spot of 35.31) 88 ounces, or 88/.715, or $123.03 in silver coin for four people for a year. That is more like nine months to be realistic, but food is exceedingly cheap when priced in any silver coin of any country that had it. The silver rah-rah clods had better have their Mormon food storage minimums before they yet again go on about monetary collapse and how silver will buy anything.
I do intend to buy a truly fine car for under 1300.00 in US 1964 quarter dollars. I saved for this situation for decades. I'll have to do some modifcations as it doesn't even have a heater.
Yes, WalMart is putting the full court press on for Layaway. Enticing the poorest and dumbest consumers to come in and buy shit for Christmas they can't afford.
WalMart's 2 biggest retail sales spikes each month are the 15th and 30th --- the days the government checks go out.
Debt on top of debt on top of debt.
BOYCOTT X-MASS 2011. Its a new movement, come on join me.
I;ll be giving one-ounce silver rounds as gifts to my family members again.
I'm with ya!
Consumers are now better described as Survivalists. We are spending more and getting less and less as businesses are downsizing product sizes or increasing fees in steath theft moves to improve their bottom lines. Our pockets are being picked. Goldman and JP Morgan are manipulating the energy markets and commodities via ETFs and storage schemes. We are now a downwardly mobile society as GDP increases while our standard of life decreases.
And more than 1/3 of GDP is financial products that actually have negative value.
The words you are looking for are record bonuses.
National security and bailing out the fed ain't cheap.
If consumers are buying Gold and Silver does that count as "investment" or consumer spending?
I am assuming that physical sales are counted as consumer sales and buying the paper assset is not counted.
I bought a chest type freezer. Does that count as profligate spending? How about the seeds I bought the other day? How about the additional 6 jars of peanut butter I got this week because the price is rising so quickly?
Better break down those numbers more to prove that the money all went to doo-dads rather than inflation before asking anyone to buy into the "Americans love to blow money" thesis.
And yeah, people are using their dental and health insurance to take care of issues while they still have coverage. Duh.
OK, I just finished labeling four different charts that really pull a nice visual summary of what is being said.
Sorry for my ignorance, but if someone could let me know how to post Excel charts I would like to contribute.
Thanks in advance.
Zadok
Interesting, earlier this week I just put in a morning to analyze how this could be. Funny how the question appeared about four days after I did the statistics. If you are curious, I have the answer in graphical form, how do I post graphs?
Edited, sorry...bad sentence structure. :-(
If you don't having posting permission levels high enough to post images directly to zerohedge, you have to post to a 3rd party site like photobucket or many others. Just google "free image hosting" or click here http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&source=hp&biw=922&bih=387&q=free+imag...
Print your chart from excel as a pdf or save your chart as html and excel will create a graphic inside the folder you save it to.
Once you post your graphic to a 3rd party hosting site, put a link on zerohedge in your posting.
As long as rich text is enabled you should be able to post photos, if you know the HTML code, I used to but then they changed all the protocols, easy enough to find them again. But, I also have been to forums ruined by people discovering how to insert photos.
Consumer confidence is falling, incomes are dropping, and yet what we spend has risen. The answer seem glaringly obvious to me, we are not spending more because we can we are spending more because the costs of what we need to buy is rising far faster than the government will ever admit. People like me would love to spend less and pay down the cards, I try but just today I had to take a payday loan to get through the last week of the month, I have cut out all my former small luxuries but basics now cost me about $700 per month more than they did two years ago, rent, food, fuel, utilities, cable, there is not a single thing in my budget that has not gone up by at least 10% and a lot of it has gone up by 50% or even more. One exception is car insurance but it is flat not going up or down, mostly because my car is worth less every renewal, and I am a lower risk every birthday. Using government hedonic methods I could say I am paying the same for less which is the same as paying more for the same. So car insurance is actually rising right along with other things but my premium is still $480 every six months.
$80/month for car insurance is absurd. i've been shopping around plugging in
bogus lowball numbers and declining anything i can decline for bare bones minimal
coverage. progressive won the bidding war with a quote of $154/year.
insurance is a ponzi like everything else. also dump your cable it's pure bullshit.
buy your clothes at thrift stores or places like marshalls, tjmax, ross, etc.
Bare bones indeed, I don't know where you live or what you drive but $154 a year would not insure my windshield. At 53 and a clean driving record I would expect it to be lower, but no matter what else happens insurance is a must. Ponzi or not. I will never buy from Progressive, I would quite driving first. They are the leading proponent of the "snapshot" method of insuring people which will in a few short years lead to far higher insurance for all while giving the police state a massive boost.
The "snapshot" is where you agree to have a computer monitoring device installed in your car that measures not only speeds but acceleration, how hard you hit the gas or the breaks, as well as many other things like G forces which tells them how fast you take corners, and when combined with GPS it also tells them if you are ever inclined to go over a posted limit no matter how stupid (or speed trappy) that limit is. We already know the Patriot Act allows cops to "partner" with corporations to spy on us even when the purpose has nothing to do with terrorism or homeland security. For the moment they offer "good drivers" a discount while others pay the going rates, but once/if this catches on with consumers you will have to drive slower and slower in order to capture discounted insurance. I am adamantly against this because while slower drivers might not have as many accidents or claims they also CAUSE far more accidents and claims as they disrupt the flow of traffic which in my experience is far more important than any prima facie limits.
Have you ever seen the film The Fifth Element with Bruce Willis? In the start he is a flying taxi driver in the future, all infractions were logged by computer and instantaneously points are deducted from your license and a computer voice tells you what your remaining point balance is, when you hit zero you lose your license on the spot and the machine is remotely shut down. This is what insurance would like to do, Progressive is doing except instead of points on your license it is premium on your insurance. And just like with any do-good fuzzy feeling programs to "help" us it will just keep escalating until we all have a 20 MPH speed limit. By the way, with the Progressive snapshot try this, start your engine and put your vehicle in drive without putting on your seatbelt. See how fast you get cancelled. Even if like me you have a tight driveway that requires body mobility to see to get out, I could not get out of my driveway with a seatbelt on, but I always buckle before hitting the street. Try explaining such to a computerized bureaucracy.
Where I live I have no alternative to cable for internet connection or television, and I was so tired of being ripped of by cell phone providers I will not have one. So, I have the cable package of all three, phone internet and TV. It was the cheapest way to stay connected. If you mean I should not be connected at all then yeah, I could save that $139 per month, but what to you might be an extravagance or luxury in this case to me is a necessity, I am isolated enough with them and without I might as well be Tom Hanks in Castaway.
I have given up all things I could do without, cell phone, fresh flowers on the table, newspaper, subscription internet sites, premium brands, clothes shopping, I think I can make my current wardrobe last about the rest of my life. Travel, I have not been on a plane since November 2001. I have reduced meat consumption by more than half. Cut way down on smoking, I still drink red wine or sometimes beer but otherwise don't drink and sure will not do drugs. I have never gotten a tat or anything pierced. Never will. But, there is a limit to what I can or will give up because at some point for each of us there is a level we just refuse to go below before we get mad enough to break the laws of our owners. Sometimes I wish I had not bought the BMW, but I could afford it when I got it, inflation unreported has eaten all spare income and if it continues much longer I will have to send it back to the bank, but when I do I will have reached the point where I will be so dangerously resentful of this nation and the corruption that has ruined the place that I will for everyone's sake leave and not come back, and knowing that day will come I made plans for it.
I rarely recommend using credit cards for living expenses, but the interest rate should be much lower than a payday loan. You might want to shut off the cable and sell the tv, its a 2 for 1, reduces expenses and increases income.
Part of the reason I occasionally use payday loans, like twice a year, is that A) the cards are maxed dude. B) I get paid once per month so while total income is adequate for the moment there are months in which cash flow is an issue. Payday loans might carry a higher rate over a very short period (a week till paid) but credit cards at 29.9% over years is a higher gross dollar figure when totaled up. And the $39 I will pay for the use of a $300 payday loan for a week is far lower than what the bank would do to me if I make an error and go NSF. In theory I have overdraft protection but it has been years since I had anything in savings to make it functional. I have been saying for years now that we are on a slippery slope, I pay more than minimums on credit cards but it all goes to interest, by the end of the month balances are right back to max. I know it is a bad situation, I have a degree in finance so I know better than most what it is costing, but no matter what education you have you can still be trapped. Like I said, the day will come when the straw breaks the camel's back, then I leave for a simpler life in a warmer climate to free myself from the oppression and tyranny of our slave owners. Till then I will get by, just.
thanks for the insight into your personal finances. IMHO you are right that cost of basics have gone up and that the government lies to you about cost of living increases. If you agree that the government lies to you would it not be logical to assume that other things that the government says may be lies (or at least look to exclude lying by testing or carefully checking what they say).
For instance, they assert that 'printing more money or more debt' is a good idea or that the 'rich' are in some way to blame for the mess?
The rich are not to blame. Its is years of spending more than we earn that is to blame for the mess.
The rich invest, take risks, employ people, innovate, pay taxes, and in all respects are a benefit to society. While the government just makes a hash of everything they touch. Just name one program or investment made by any government ANYWHERE in the world that has ever produced net postive value? There isnt one. My favorite example of their incompetence is London's Millenium Dome. A freestanding project that couldn't hide its huge and wasteful budget inside a bigger budget. It cost at least £700MM. The government sold it for £1.
This kind of monumental waste happens each and every day in government.
Government is the problem masquerading as the solution.
Governments waste the rich peoples money on useless projects that APPEAR to create (short term) wealth until they run out of other peoples money (OPM).then it resets. Right now they are running out of OPM. The reset is coming or happening now.
Depending on how our leaders manage the process there will be social upheaval or possibly even war.
Their preferred method of dealing with problems is to blame someone else. (E.G the jews - this was popular once and may be coming back soon)
Blame however on makes the problem worse.
We don't have a SINGLE competent, strong or good leader in the entire world, perhaps with the exception of Putin.
And he's not on our side...........
"investment made by any government ANYWHERE in the world that has ever produced net postive value?"
LCBO in Ontario, Canada. Government run booze monopoly.
http://www.lcbo.com/aboutlcbo/media_centre/quick_facts.shtml
Best I can do...
so you are saying that the rich do not own the government ????
you think the rich would exist if the government was not there to protect them?
don't you realise that the goverment is a tool in the hands of the rich - its their shield, and their sword, its what they use to controll you.
Again, all of human history till 1776 saw power and wealth concentrated in very VERY few hands while all the rest were the property of their kings, queens, chieftains, barons, counts, squires, emperors, and other assorted aristocracy and elite cronies thereof who were no more noble than you or me but by accident of birth were lords to all the rest. That is not a system I will willingly revert to because you do not like that others are as free as you.
Just name one program or investment made by any government ANYWHERE in the world that has ever produced net postive value? There isnt one.
Marshall Plan.
Really 666, these anti government rants have to stop. Government can be more efficient for certain and we all know that croney capitalism is a rot destroying our freedom and viability, but just like a house with severe woodworm it can be reapired, but by just sitting around and bitching about it you and a few others here add to the problem without correcting anything, and I for one would love for you to live a week in your corporate utopia of private laissez-faire owned by an elite 1%, you will regret it the moment you see it.
What you are doing is wasting the time of everybody else exposed to you while not adding a single positive note to any debate or a single worthy action. I might add that not everything people do or need has to have a dollar/economic function. There are many intangible non economic functions of government that wealthy private parties cannot and would not if they could provide. If I were made to choose between a world without government, or a world without wealthy elite masters of the universe guess what, the rich would be toast.
A world with elite masters can only exist BECAUSE of government. There hasn't been true laissez-faire free markets since 1913 (and probably before then), only government-enabled crony capitalism.
The best way to reach your idea of utopia (world without elite masters) is to reduce government to the smallest possible nano-denominator.
Rubbish, the first time one human told another what to do we had government, and it was probably a parent telling a child to eat their peas, but from the time of Lucy in Olduvai Gorge there was at least tribalism which is a form of government as well. It is just a simpler version of absolute monarchy. The more complex and technological a civilization the technological and complex the government. Just because a large and complex society has a large and complex government does not mean it must be corrupt. We citizens allow it to be corrupt. We might one day get fed up with the corruption, but I assure you we cannot do without government. The plain fact is that human population is now at least six billion individuals past the world's natural carrying capacity for a rural agrarian "organic" system of social organization. It is only the advancements in technology that are keeping the vast majority of us alive even while it threatens future devastations if we do not alter the worst and most outdated sectors of it, and that will not/cannot be done as long as the system is motivated by money and greed. If there were one single thing OWS might be saying that is an intuition on their part rather than full formed ideas they can articulate it is that, greed and survival at this point are not compatible.
Or do you yearn for a return to aristocracy and nobility by accident of birth? Maybe you think Caligula was somehow not government to millions of Romans and their provinces? Government, specifically US government since 1776 has been the one freedom from most if not all of that the planet ever had, we are staggered by the blows of the elitist wealthy greedy bastards now but not yet out of the fight. We are alive and so there is still a possibility of regaining our peace and freedom.
@boiltherich
You have the answer, sir. Don't expect to hear this on bubblevision or the news.
What? The government is lying? I am shocked, just shocked I tell you.
When the going gets tough, the tough go shopping. With plastic debt.
so even the ought to knows are full of it lol
making big gurgling sounds .. wolf the one eyed bean counter
GDP Nonsense: Consumption Surged 1.7% While Disposable Income Collapsed 1.7%?
shadow stats
Oil Oil Oil. Brent and gasoline both are 25% higher than this time last year.
That's where this spending is going. Rent holds down the deflator, but gasoline embeds in everything else.
I think it is all quite simple:
Rents increasing above governments inflation adjustment.
Cost of non-discretionary household items increasing above governments inflation adjustment.
Oh, and the governments inflationary adjustment is a sham measurement.
The only surprising thing is that people pay attention to the data put forth by a government that openly manipulates data for public scorecards and misdirection.