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Iran-Israel Scenario Spiraling Down Rapidly
One of the things Russ Winter does well as a result of his study of game theory is geopolitical analysis. I don't always agree with him, but he's always thoughtful and provocative. Lately he's been paying a lot of attention to the Iran-Israel situation. Here are his latest thoughts. ~ Lee Adler
Iran-Israel Scenario Spiraling Down Rapidly
Courtesy of Russ Winter of Winter Watch at Wall Street Examiner
In my view Israel has all but guaranteed that they will attack Iran's nuclear facility, and that the timing is imminent. Senior Israeli military and intelligence sources said Wednesday, Feb. 22, that Israel's strategic and military position in the Middle East has taken a sharp downturn.
1. UN inspectors were sent packing empty-handed from Tehran after attempting to gain access to nuke facilities. They were also denied an interview with Mohsen Fakrrizadeh, director of the Parchin project and also believed in the West to be the paramount head of Iran's military nuclear program.
2. The transfer of 20 percent uranium enrichment to Fordo is taken by Western and Israel intelligence experts to have accelerated the pace of enriching large quantities of 20 percent enriched uranium to weapons grade and shortened to an estimated six weeks the time needed for arming a nuclear bomb after a decision in Tehran.
3. There was a threat from Iran's Chief of Staff that Iran will not wait for "its enemies" - Israel and/or the US - to strike and will act first.
Iran for its part must be calculating that its facilities are not vulnerable to strikes at this stage. They have also put a wedge between the US and Israel, who seem engaged in back channel and public feuding. The war parties in Israel and Iran are in full ascendancy. This looks like much more than posturing. The oil embargoes are now hitting Europe hard as Brent Sea oil is now $124. For Iran this is a fiat accompli. Even short of conflict, this pressure on the West is costly.
The issue as I see it is that analysts are overly focused on the US-Iran part of the equation, when the reality points to the grossly under-appreciated Israel-Iran aspect. I believe Israel will be forced to act unilaterally, and at that point all the unpredictable elements of conflict and war will manifest themselves. The key variable for the US is: will Iran attempt to close the strait of Hormuz. I believe they will, and at that point the US will respond accordingly. I don't think the US will be party to the Israeli preemptive attack. Judging from the threat seen in #3, Iran will likely hit the US even if the initial response is passive.
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Iran doesn't need nukes, which they would never use even if they had them. Cobalt 60, weaponized small pox, plague, tularemia, etc, fuel air explosive devices, EMP weapons, technology to land a US drone, possible high energy weapons, and enough supersonic anti ship missiles (Yakhonts, Sunburn, etc) to sink the US 5th fleet in about 30 seconds is all they need for adequate deterrance, IMHO
No. That's not how it's going to work.
Per Ludwig von Mises in Human Action,
"The military events of both World Wars have proved anew that the capitalistic countries are paramount also in armaments production... Where capitalistic entrepreneurship is allowed to function freely, the fighting forces will always be so well equipped that the biggest armies of the backward peoples will be no match for them. There has even been great exaggeration of the danger of making the formulas for manufacturing “secret” weapons universally known. If war comes again, the searching mind of the capitalistic world will always have a head start on the peoples who merely copy and imitate clumsily.
The peoples who have developed the system of the market economy and cling to it are in every respect superior to all other peoples. The fact that they are eager to preserve peace is not a mark of their weakness and inability to wage war. They love peace because they know that armed conflicts are pernicious and disintegrate the social division of labor. But if war becomes unavoidable, they show their superior efficiency in military affairs too. They repel the barbarian aggressors whatever their numbers may be."
ROTFLMAO. Yeah.. we really showed those backward fucks in Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq not to mess with "capitalisitic entrepreneurship". Pfft.
Operation Barbarossa resulted in several million casualties.
The wars you speak of were mere games.
Yeah... "mere games". Estimated casualties from the Vietnam conflict alone come close to 3 or 4 million. Care to tally up the results from Korea? From Wikipedia's entry on Vietnam:
The number of military and civilian deaths from 1955 to 1975 is debated. Some reports fail to include the members of South Vietnamese forces killed in the final campaign, or the Royal Lao Armed Forces, thousands of Laotian and Thai irregulars, or Laotian civilians who all perished in the conflict. They do not include the tens of thousands of Cambodians killed during the civil war or the estimated one and one-half to two million that perished in the genocide that followed Khmer Rouge victory, or the fate of Laotian Royals and civilians after the Pathet Lao assumed complete power in Laos.
In 1995, the Vietnamese government reported that its military forces, including the NLF, suffered 1.1 million dead and 600,000 wounded during Hanoi's conflict with the United States. Civilian deaths were put at two million in the North and South, and economic reparations were demanded.[citation needed] Hanoi concealed the figures during the war to avoid demoralizing the population.[280] Estimates of civilian deaths caused by American bombing in Operation Rolling Thunder range from 52,000[281] to 182,000.[282] The U.S. military has estimated that between 200,000 and 250,000 South Vietnamese soldiers died in the war.[283]
We're screwed then, being fascist and all.
Your perception isn't accurate.
The people of USA continue to have among the greatest degree of economic freedom to be found on Earth.
Dude, you don't wanna talk like that around here. Most on this site have already accepted that they don't/can't control their own lives and your a fool if you think you can. Most probably have never tried. "Repub/Demo!? There's no difference! There is nothing you can do! Don't vote! Get back to the basement!"
While I still do agree with your statement, the statists are doing everything they can through both parties to rob you of your economic freedom. Our only hope is Tea Party types and a return to the Constitution. Most on this site had high praise for the statist tools of the Occupy movement.
you forgot the /sarc indicator. /sarc.
Back at you.
http://www.heritage.org/index/visualize?countries=unitedstates%7ciran&src=country
Seriously, that's your justification for your asinine remark about economic freedom? The only "economic freedom" I see is Corzine, Mozilo, Paulson et al are still free, the SEC can only see the porn before their eyes and the AG is AWOL.
Nice Hair!
Why is it that ZH posters can only see the bad? Corzine, Paulson and Mozilo are about as typical of most American businessmen as the dollar is to a valued currency. I really wonder sometimes, do these people have nothing better to do than sit around hating everyone and everything? I'd like - just once - to hear some things they do like (if there are any). Have a nice day.
I think there is a tendency to rely too much on pedantry. There is of course much corruption and many violation of rights in the USA. Theory and logical argumentation can inform us on what ought to be.
But practical planning and action requires the thymological method, which is more of an art. I am at this point convinced that the world will be a better place if the current course of Iran is forcibly altered.
And we are required to stipulate; that a.) you know what the "current course" of Iran is. b.) you know how to forcibly alter it c.) the results of this "forcible altering" will be useful or beneficial to someone. You're just another ignorant ego-maniac my friend; fortunately you're not running for President; The last ignorant Ego-maniac we had for president caused a hell of a lot of completely predictable trouble and suffering pursuing his particular ignorant vision of utopia.
You should review that site and work on gaining a sense of perspective.
No person and no country is perfect. If Uncle Sam is akin to a petty thief and con artist, then Iran is akin to a wife beater and terrorist.
But we cannot practically transform the entire world into a utopia overnight. We need to be practical and deal with the worst problems at hand first.
Apparently you're unaware of the philosophical paradox inherent in "Utopia". One man's utopia is another man's hell on Earth. All Utopia's have in common the domination and subservience of the individual to the "enlightened leaders" of the Utopia. People like you who imagine you know what's good for everyone and want to enforce it by violence; "peace and prosperity thru machine-guns"; are extremely dangerous. It's too bad you don't understand what the "worst problem at hand is"; I'll give you a hint. Righteousness starts at home.
I am not speaking of a utilitarian utopia. If a man rapes a woman, I do not believe that the pleasure of the man can be added to the suffering of the woman to obtain a positive or negative quantity. There is no means to sum the subjective valuations of different people.
But there are objective ethics, viz. argumentation ethics. Iran's own actions logically estop it from objecting to a response.
The way I see it Israel attacks Iran, Iran doesn't close the straight and thus draw the US into things. Iran promptly allows western reporters into the country to show the rest of the world that Israel pulled a Bush and went in with faulty intelligence. Arab/Muslim world reacts badly as there was at least one Koran in there that got burnt. Arab/Muslim world unites and attacks Israel in mass.
The US sits it out along with the rest of western Europe. Israel once again kicks their ass. New peace treaty in the Middle East.
Of course, if that happens, it will eventually get really ugly.
The media is not going do anything. They are a bunch of sell outs reflecting the interest of big business and big government. If Iran gets attacked, it better put a prolonged and expensive fight. I don't think that China or Russia would allow/like an invasion, so it is all going to be missiles flying by. China and Russia could even declare neutrality and in doing so pull their money and treasuries out and in doing so cause even more damage. No country can duke out a war against the US, but they can do it financially. Anybody who thinks the US is bankrupt now, hasn't seen anything yet.
"...I don't think the US will be party to the Israeli preemptive attack..."
what a goddamned stupid fuck....israel is a sock puppet of the usa and is acting on orders from the cia / jcs
tony bonn asserted:
It's the other way around. The United States is a colony of Israel. The CIA, Joint Chiefs of Staff, Congress, and President take their orders from Tel Aviv.
Than k you for that insightful comment, comrade. It's amazing that although the US military hasn't a clue, ZH posters know all the juicy details. It's like all those You Tube videos revealing "secret Nasa footage" or "the Vatican-Saudi plot". You'd think conspiracy folks would be smart enough to keep all the secrets from web posters.
You don't understand; the point of having a conspiracy theory in the first place is to have something important to say; to get people to pay attention to you. This is a "neurotic reward", as a Freud called it; for our fellow citizens educated in North America. It's so much simpler than studying books for twenty years to find out what the fuck is actually going on in the world around you; you can just instantly become a significant source of wisdom. Kind of like Al Gore, who was a divinity student in college who dropped out, but one day he woke up and discovered he was an expert on world climate and physical chemistry; it's just amazing! You could do it too. Just make up any old cock and bull story that has some kind of emotional hook to it and presto; you can be a guru and satisfy your messianic needs.
Other way around. Zionists, via Big$$$ and Big Media, control - ex Ron Paul - all major US politicians. So Israhell will strike 1st, followed shortly by US. Where it goes from there, no one knows. Just like 1914. Brzezinski - who has the sharpest mind of anyone I've ever encountered, + global contacts and can add up the vectors - says: "Catastrophe". He's probably right.
Israel just needs to give the Iranians one of their 200-300 nukes. And give the Saudis one. AAnd the Jordanians since any attack on israel will spread fallout over the entire country. And then tell Iran "you get one shot. We get 298". Maybe cooler Iranian heads will prevail. The Saudis dis-trust the Iranians more than the Israelis and would love to have them removed as threats to the house of Saud. maybe we should have supported the iranian opposition 2 years ago.
House of Saud shit scared of its own Shia population. It's easy to forget how tribal the ME is. But if things get chaotic there may well be unplanned regime changes - Despite it's big military pressence in Bahrain and Saudi I think the US has to be concerned about the Shia majority reaction in those countries should they attack Iran,
When the Middle East runs out of oil, they will return to their tents in the desert.
Saudi Arabia is majority Sunni, Shia is the minority..And Sunni's and Shia hate each other more then they hate Israel and USA.
Iran want nukes because they don't want to be invaded. HOW DARE THEM!
Who in the hell is going to invade Iran? Saudia Arabia, Jordan, Lebanon, Israel. Get real. Iran wants the bomb for one reason - intimidation against Sunni. I'd wager that except for the crazies, Iran doesn't give a hoot about Israel. Until the theocracy Iran and Israel were very close. The reason for the bomb is not Israel (unless they truly are mad, quite possible) but the Sunni majority.
EVs bitches!
All sides seem to agree that open conflict between the secular West and Islam is inevitable and that Islamic Martyrdom is good.
If you are inclined to pray, please pray for the innocents and that the West has the constitution to finish this ugly game.
InconvenientCounterparty said:
If you are inclined to pray, please pray for the innocents who will die in Iran and in Israel, and that the West has the wisdom to prevent this stupid game.
(Fixed it for ya.)
the innocents are the women and children in Iran who are going to die at the hands of the neoCONs and zionists who never get enough money, power or war.
What did the Markets do the day the Arab Oil Embargo hit us? Back in the 70's I was a child then but remember the three inch high headline that morning in the paper and the resulting struggle for the rest of the month to get gas.
At the time we bought gasoline at any price even rationing etc.
Yes, and then, as now, it was all bullshit.
Yeah; but it ain't BS when somebody wacks you up side tha' head with a bat. There are some folks sitting in places right now with their palms sweating profusely. And there are others wringing their hands in glee. Which wolf wins? The good wolf or the bad wolf? Answer: the one you feed. We're close to a heap of trouble. Sucks.
And then Hezbollah and Syria attack Israel... and then all hell break loose.
If WW3 starts and say maybe only 3 or 4 nukes hit various parts of the US to you think your phone will still ring all day everyday with citibank collection agents on the other end? My bet is yes.
Retus?
Whose nukes would hit the US? Russian? They're the only ones with that capability. Or do you mean smuggled in nukes or something?
Who has nukes in the mideast?
Pakistan.
Israel..300 to 400.
How about our own?
DING DING DING get this man a cigar!!!
They'd have to drop a nuke on Mumbai in order to interrupt those operations.
And the guys who want to consolidate my debt for me.