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Iran-Israel Scenario Spiraling Down Rapidly
One of the things Russ Winter does well as a result of his study of game theory is geopolitical analysis. I don't always agree with him, but he's always thoughtful and provocative. Lately he's been paying a lot of attention to the Iran-Israel situation. Here are his latest thoughts. ~ Lee Adler
Iran-Israel Scenario Spiraling Down Rapidly
Courtesy of Russ Winter of Winter Watch at Wall Street Examiner
In my view Israel has all but guaranteed that they will attack Iran's nuclear facility, and that the timing is imminent. Senior Israeli military and intelligence sources said Wednesday, Feb. 22, that Israel's strategic and military position in the Middle East has taken a sharp downturn.
1. UN inspectors were sent packing empty-handed from Tehran after attempting to gain access to nuke facilities. They were also denied an interview with Mohsen Fakrrizadeh, director of the Parchin project and also believed in the West to be the paramount head of Iran's military nuclear program.
2. The transfer of 20 percent uranium enrichment to Fordo is taken by Western and Israel intelligence experts to have accelerated the pace of enriching large quantities of 20 percent enriched uranium to weapons grade and shortened to an estimated six weeks the time needed for arming a nuclear bomb after a decision in Tehran.
3. There was a threat from Iran's Chief of Staff that Iran will not wait for "its enemies" - Israel and/or the US - to strike and will act first.
Iran for its part must be calculating that its facilities are not vulnerable to strikes at this stage. They have also put a wedge between the US and Israel, who seem engaged in back channel and public feuding. The war parties in Israel and Iran are in full ascendancy. This looks like much more than posturing. The oil embargoes are now hitting Europe hard as Brent Sea oil is now $124. For Iran this is a fiat accompli. Even short of conflict, this pressure on the West is costly.
The issue as I see it is that analysts are overly focused on the US-Iran part of the equation, when the reality points to the grossly under-appreciated Israel-Iran aspect. I believe Israel will be forced to act unilaterally, and at that point all the unpredictable elements of conflict and war will manifest themselves. The key variable for the US is: will Iran attempt to close the strait of Hormuz. I believe they will, and at that point the US will respond accordingly. I don't think the US will be party to the Israeli preemptive attack. Judging from the threat seen in #3, Iran will likely hit the US even if the initial response is passive.
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The third point I took to mean that the spokesman for Iran was talking about cutting off oil shipments to Europe before the west enforces its embargo.
Too bad if there can't be a peaceful conclusion to this. I can understand why Israel would fear Iran with nukes, but then, hey Israel, try to walk in Iranian shoes for a while. Easy enough for you since you have your stash of assured destruction by muke stash. You seem to have forgotten what it feels like to be persecuted. Supposedly you worhip the same God; prove it.
I can understand why Israel would fear Iran with nukes ...
There are other Arab countries that also fear Iran with nukes. Do they not matter in this conversation?
They don't worship the same God, Islam only claims to do so, and nobody promised jews 72 virgins for going suicide against other religions. I doubt that there will be a strike, probably just continued harassment with the help of the Iranian resistance.
Without adding the nutcase religious factors it's easy to see why Iran would want a nuke. But then you hear the supreme leaders beliefs and shit that supposedly was spewed out of Bush's mouth concerning his beliefs and it's like holly fuck.........there is no figuring this out because the bastards are all insane and willing to blow up the entire world over a bunch of fucking fairytales.
oh yea, another BS of zionist propaganda
Wow. I guess this must be bullish for earnings... (not)!
http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Nymex Crude Future 107.75 14:15 PM
Dated Brent Spot 125.56 14:25 PM
i wish i didnt agree with his anaysis
I liked the use of "fiat accompli," I just wonder whether it was intentional.
Not mention of Russia or China or India in this scenario? It's not like they have anything at stake ere right?
Every day seems to bring us closer to something I've said for a while now: Israel will start World War III. And the world will suffer greatly for this.
They have everything at stake. This rock is too small and they know it.
China Russia and India are all afflicted with the hated cancer which will quickly become malignant once the shooting starts.
Every self-declared Muslim in the world will either renounce the religion and it's promise of afterlife, or pursue martyrdom. One of the pillars that makes Islam so strong is that the rules are simple and crystal clear. It will require a strong stomach to deal with that.
You better believe Pakistan figures into the war planning and I doubt there is adequate coverage of that scenario. That's where it could really get out of control.
It's not where you're going that matters, it's how you get there. Buckle up, Bitchez.
>>>they are all infected with the hated cancer?
rothschild controlled central banks? yeah, time for some surgery...
I have not heard any speculation from anyone on the likely Russian or Chinese response to a first-strike on Iran by Israel.
Any guesses?
Citxmech said:
It's possible that at least one part of the Russian response has already occurred. If you'll recall, around a week ago two Iranian warships transited the Suez Canal into the Mediterranean, putting into port at Tartus, Syria. The unimaginative, which includes the corporate owned news media (CONmedia), the Washington Wargirls (John McCain, Lindsay Graham, Carl Levin, Joe Lieberman), and Barack "Jerry Mahoney" Obama, all assumed that Iran must be delivering weapons to the government of Syria. This is the expected assumption from those whose intellect operates at the level of a checkers player.
Iran has been playing chess, not checkers. What the checker players couldn't conceive is that those two ships were probably not making a delivery, but picking up a delivery. Recall that the Russians have a naval base at Tartus. The Russians haven't, as far as anyone knows, sold any of their most advanced anti-aircraft systems to Iran. However, during the cold war, both the Soviet Union and the United States used their proxy wars as testing grounds for the new devices in their toyboxes of death. It is plausible that the Russians made a drop shipment to Tartus of enough of their newest anti-aircraft systems to repel an Israeli air attack.
This would allow the Russians to assist the Iranian defense efforts without direct involvement. It would also allow the Russians to see how well their systems perform against the American aircraft used by the Israelis.
Of course, what do I know? I don't even have a PhD.
You don't need one as you're more astute and also honest than most who have one (they probably plagiarised to get it anyway ... it's the NATO way).
The Russians are capable of making deliveries by sea and air, directly to Iran, though it's likely the Iranians are also picking-up advanced systems, as you say.
The Russians are a big power and don't need to tip-toe around any one and certainly won't.
They are there to assert that fact.
Though they are clearly preparing for the possibility of regional conflict here and have stationed their fleet in an extremely confronting and threatening location.
This Russian fleet is a much greater threat to Israel than Iran is, right now, and will be a very worrying and unwelcome development.
It represents true long-range heavy-bombardment and precision firepower that is capable of destroying key elements of Israel's IADs and core defence infrastructure (including nuclear).
Thus leaving Israel gutted and open to a coordinated full-blooded Hezbollah, Syrian and Iranian heavy barrage, up to an including precision guided ballistic missiles, and that could go on for months.
With the Strait of Hormuz closed concurrently.
The Russians are actually right in Israel's face and saying, "Do you feel lucky ... Punk? ... well, ... do ya?".
My suspicion is the Iranians will be doing both delivery and pick-up.
The Russians have said that if there is an attack on Iran it's on, and if that Russian fleet were not in the area those Iranian ships would be unlikely to make the trip and survive.
I would say at this point that any organised resistance in Syria is going to be wiped out, very brutally and quickly. If I were a westerner or foreigner I would get out of there fast.
This stand off is going to continue, for as long as it takes for Israel to get the message.
If Israel attacks Iran, then Russia, Syria, Lebanon and Iran are going to launch a massive and relentless attack upon Israel.
So what will Israel do?
They'll scream for mommy (for USN, USAF and NATO reinforcement and diplomatic support).
Only mommy won't want to get into this with Russia's nuclear forces on high alert.
Israel ain't worth it.
Silence
Oh we'll just pretend they don't exist and continue with our global takeover as if they aren't there and as if we're the only one with nukes.
Nukes are essentially obsolete; show only. The newer weapon(s) we have are so much more mobile and tacitly powerful that you won't hear about them until (maybe) decades after they set them on 'go'. And I'm sure Mossad knows about them. Unfortunately, the Russkies have the same technology. Could get really wierd in the blink of an eye.
EMP weapons?
Worse yet. Imagine a search light that you don't want to be on the illuminated end of and you get the jist.
I don't think they have a part until Act II.
Is that a quote from the Bush White House circa March 18 2003?
http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=kbQaAAAAIBAJ&sjid=gUMEAAAAIBAJ&pg=4...
?? commented on:
by saying:
It's a quote from a propagandist on AIPAC's payroll. Russ Winter knows that UN inspectors weren't denied access to nuke facilities. They were denied access to an Iranian military facility, a facility for which the IAEA has never claimed any involvement in the processing or handling of fissile material. Consequently, per the terms of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the inspectors are not entitled to access to the facility.
This entire issue could have been resolved diplomatically years ago. The Iranians have been more than willing to negotiate. It is the United States which has been stonewalling negotiations, refusing to step to the table unless Iran suspends all work on their uranium enrichment program. Iran's progress in uranium enrichment is the direct result of the refusal of the United States to engage in diplomacy.
Such childish petulance illustrates that, like the Soviet Union, the United States is a former superpower. A superpower has honor, influence, and respect; the United States has depleted its storehouse of these qualities like it was third-generation inherited wealth.
how many times do we have to watch this same bs game play out? A nuclear energy program is not a nuclear weapons program. Just yesterday the head Iranian cleric declared that building nuclear weapons was a sin. Say what you want about the Iranian clerics, they are not liars. The nuclear issue is a total red herring. Even the CIA admits no weapons, and no imminent threat. This is about destroying all who stand in the way of the zionist nightmare of creating a greater israhell in the middle east.
You're using the veracity of muslim clerics and the CIA to support your position?
The Muslim book allows them to lie to infidels and the CIA ... they're usually just plain wrong.
So why are they spending huge amounts to create weapons grade material, useless in a peaceful reactor?
masterinchancery, under the control of the propagandists, said:
They haven't. Their uranium enrichment program, all of which operates under the watchful eye of the IAEA, hasn't produced a speck of weapons grade uranium.
(Note: I edited this comment and elaborated on it as I posted it originally from a dumb-phone ... there is no such thing as a 'smart-phone'.
--
It has nothing to do with reactors. Uranium enrichment to weapons grade does not involve reactors and its not clear they will go to weapons grade with this material. They may not even have to. And it is legally their perogative to enrich uranium to whatever level they want, in any volume they want.
Iran can withdraw from the NPT with three months notice and build nukes any time they want to thereafter. That's exactly what the DPRK did. Any country on Earth can legally do that if they believe it is essential to their strategic security, and have prepared for the diplomatic backlash.
Iran is a very strong position to do this, but won't overtly, to save from disenfranchising Russia and China.
But Russia and China are not too disenfranchised with the DPRK having developed nukes in that way.
The US and NATO simply doesn't want to acknowledge that this is an international legal reality, so is instead creating the strategic threat that Iran is naturally and predictably reacting to.
Which is why the US-NATO behaviour is suspicious and obviously a setup to create a conflict and 'threat', where there otherwise wouldn't really be one.
fox news report that garbage? you sound like colin powell talking about gas trucks.
And about destroying those not participating in the PetroDollar/World Central Bank scam.
Prisoner's dliemna
Yes, The citizens are the prisoners.
Yep.
And just as the DJIA is reaching 13K:
http://thespiritoftruth.blogspot.com/2012/02/dow-13k.html
What relevance? Consider this. On July 16-17, 1990 the DJIA closed at 2999.75 two days in a row and never successfully closed above the 3000 mark for the first time until the following year. Precisely at that top Saddam Hussein threatened Kuwait and invaded days later precipitating a 25% drop in the stock market.
One little thing not mentioned in this story is, what if Israel feels that it can not destroy everything it needs to hit with "Bunker Busters", and instead says, fuck it, lets use our Low Yield Tactical NUKES. Then you will see the real fun begin.....
Israel does not have a material capacity to effectively attack Iran.
Why would they attack conventionally, have it fail, be proven ineffectual, and risk having Iran hit Israel with what may be very effective ballistic missiles?
Israel is not in a position to make such an attack, the potential downside is huge and protracted.
Israel gots its ass kicked in the 33 day war in lebanon just a few years ago. That war pales in comparison to what Iran has waiting for those fools.
A 25 years service British soldier friend of mine was in Iran 2 years ago on holiday as a guest of Iranians who were at school with us both. He travelled extensively and met a lot of Iranian military through his hosts. He thinks they are well equipped, well trained disciplined and very patriotic. Anybody who thinks conflict with Iran will be 'easy' is mistaken, but I would like to see our leaders send their own children if they send anybody else's.
As I suspected. It seems some of the media wants the world to believe that Iran is unprepared. I think Israel would be in for a heck of a surprise.
Conquering Iran is easy, give it two and three days and most of their tactical defences will be destroyed. Occupying Iran will be far harder and even worse than Iraq. The Revolutionary Guard will go underground and they are bunch of nutters. Ultimately the west takes a big hit because oil prices will go crazy, at least WTI 150$, because Iran will sooner sabotage all its oil facilities then let the west take them.
Ironically Iran's most profitable asset is also its greatest defence, attacking Iran will result in a oil price spike followed by recession from crazy inflation and high prices. The USA and its NATO minions know this and if they had any sense (which I doubt) they won't attack Iran...
for what little it's worth, i have a gut feeling that there won't be significant military action involving iran any time soon.
This sort of reminds me of the horrendous level of US bristling that occurred when thr DPRK set off it's first nuke:
After the test, on the 5th of October 2006, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill, delivered the official U.S. response to North Korea’s UN delegation in New York. The US warning was toothless and completely ineffectual and has proven to be nothing but US posturing and dramatics.
Christopher Hill said;
1) The U.S. will not live with a nuclear-armed North Korea.
2) North Korea can have a future, or it can have nuclear weapons, but it can not have both.
Effectively the U.S. has done nothing about the DPRK’s nuclear capability, it merely sought to apply an unenforceable economic and financial sanctions regime. China refused to take part in hardline sanctions enforcement, and both China and Russia entirely rejected backing such with military action or a blockade.
After enough time had passed, and Washington had frothed enough, they claimed to be satisfied with the outcome but it clearly did not and will not eliminate or prevent a fully nuclear-armed DPRK. And the DPRK will indeed remain with a nuclear arsenal.
--
This is how they will deal with a nuclear Iran also, and I don't for an instant buy this idea that Iran is above developing nukes in secret because some religious spokesperson declares it a sin.
Tell it to Pakistan, they'll laugh right in your face for swallowing that load of absurd bollocks.
CIABS, I hope you are right, but we have seen this script before, via Iraq. This has all the hallmarks for a run up for a strike. The table is set, the food is served, let the party begin.
i think it's very risky for the U.S. elites. on the other hand, it might relate to getting obama re-elected. if so, i would think they'd do it in or around june, not imminently. the republican process looks a lot like they're supposed to lose, just as in 2008 and 1996.
I'm sure the USN leadership knows acutely that they would get into a situation that they can not win, and can not put down. They will appear to lose.
Yes, the USN can beat the snot out of Iran, very easily, but they can not actually defeat them in this particular geopolitical and geographic situation, any more than the US was able to defeat North Korea, or North Vietnam, in those previous geopolitical situations.
It's because when big powers like Russia and China both emphatically say no and warn of the potential for WWIII, then the US military will understand that its available options and possibilities for a successful outcome does in fact shrink, dramatically.
That is a new polarising reality they are suddenly facing, and probably loving the prospect of a new arms race where so much oil money and raw geopolitical fear is available to fan it to great heights. The US Mil-Ind Complex will be over the moon!
Happy days are here again!
I would add though, that I think the US will make a limited but concerted attack for the benefit of the MSM and Iran will sink a few tankers ... Israel may participate though I doubt it, as they were specifically asked to stay out of Desert Storm, even after the scuds hit, so as to not upset the Saudi, Jordanian and Syrian US Allies ... remember that? Happy days, happy days!
Yes, the USN can beat the snot out of Iran, very easily, but they can not actually defeat them ...
I continue to be puzzled by comments like this that keep popping up. The objective is to cripple or destroy enrichment facilities. The objective is not to fight Iran and defeat them. As has been done in the past, one could theoretically destroy nuclear facilities while leaving the country intact and unattacked.
and oil tapping 108. It will hit 115 shortly (within days or a week). From there...who the hell knows.
Gas at $4+ per gallon is not going to make anybody's life any easier...unless of course they're oil executives.