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Italiano Absurdo
Italiano Absurdo
Courtesy of Russ Winter of Winter Watch at Wall Street Examiner
The market rationale that the Berlusconi toss out is bullish is patently absurd. In reality Berlusconi inherited a sinking debt trap ship, and already ran a decent austerity program for Italy, keeping them in the game for the last few years. He also kept a government together, no small task in Italy. It would be like an effective budget hawk being elected President of the US today and quickly reigning in deficit spending to 3-4% of GDP for the next few years, staving off the inevitable. Once again the problem with Italy is extreme debt levels, not Berlusconi. I think his problem may have been going after taxes on wealthy people, an object lesson as attention shifts to the US supercommittee proposal due out Nov. 23. There is very little headline news on that, by the way [Politico: Odds Stacking Up Against Supercommittee].
Italy is finished. Rates above 6% reinforce that. The 10 year Italiano is 6.82% this morning ahead of the latest ratline intervention. The ECB couldn’t step up to the plate on Greece to finance a much smaller situation, so how could this possibly happen for Italy? Are we now going to be subjected to around the clock weekendism and Hail Mary rallies on this ridiculous notion? We are seeing the cost of gimmicks as well, the goon squad has effectively killed the CDS market, so now all these insolvent countries will need to raise money with credit insurance for buyers problematic. Speaking of gimmicks, how about the EFSF financing tool? Duh, nearly a third of it is financed by Italy and Spain. Back to the drawing board on that one. Really not much left of Europe, how about Uranus or Neptune as replacements? I see Luxembourg is still a AAA. Somebody please help!!
source: Barclays
The notion of more austerity and economic growth solving Italy’s debt trap is the pinnacle of silly season. The effort to brake Italy’s negative market dynamics was admirable by Berlusconi in the past, but reality has now taken hold. Italy is where the US is going within a few years, if not months. Put that little prediction in a time capsule.
It also looks like the rats are abandoning ship right as it slips below the waves. The LCH effectively doubles deposit charges on Italian bonds. I wonder who is still hung out to dry on leverage on this one? Obviously the aforementioned EFSF and ECB are two of the elephants. They can send Italy part of the bill. Way, way too much faith in government carrying the whole ball and calling the same off tackle put it in the ratline plays.
This post is reprinted from Russ’s premium service, Russ Winter’s Actionable. Click here for information.
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Nah - the're not going for 'Growth" -
the bankers want everyone to default - so they can go out and foreclose on all the real estate and businesses and farms and city parks and private prisons and strip clubs ...
Nah - the're not going for 'Growth" -
the bankers want everyone to default - so they can go out and foreclose on all the real estate and businesses and farms and city parks and private prisons and strip clubs ...
"..Italy is finished.."
No, dear turkey, what is finished is your monkey paradise. Of coarse, it will take some time to realise it, as usual...
Italy's growth since 2000 was only higher than Haiti and Zimbabwe's. So starting from zip, a plan to fix things through growth sounds plausible.
I'm going all in on It. bonds.
Isn't this the same blogger that's always telling me to buy stocks?
You would be correct.
The author says if it weren't for Bunga, Italy would have crashed earlier. 3 pound bag, 4 kilos of shit for that one!
If the mafia can't run Italy through their bunga hole, who can?
Why does the author think Italy tightened their belt, if everyone else involved has laughed at the prospect of their ever having done so, or ever doing so, like merkozy to name a couple?
I don't understand why fact and fiction can be mixed and expected to be considered anything but a joke?
This article is on the money. Getting rid of Berlusconi solves nothing. The combination of being distracted by his antics and inhaling the hopium is the reason people think otherwise.
I just calculated it.
If I am not too stoned it is 20 billion euros in additional annual financing charges.
Why are people getting so excited about this?
20% of government revenues according to C4 news here in the UK which they will have to borrow, borrowing to pay interest on present borrowing, sounds like they consulted Charles Ponzi from Lugo, Italy..
My student loans in the old days were nine percent.
Someone please give some justification for the retarded and endlessly repeated phrase that italy cant tolerate rates above six percent.
What incremental amount of italian gdp goes to service a difference in rates of eight percent versus six percent?
It has to be a laughably small amount.
Someone please give some justification for the retarded and endlessly repeated phrase that italy cant tolerate rates above six percent.
***************
Maybe it's because there is no lock on Bond yields-
The vigilantes will set the rates and with no hope of eliminating debt and with the ability to tax at a dead end-ratings will continue to be downgraded and Bond yields will continue spiking-
I can't wait for the new Perillo vacation package. The 10 day Street Riot Tour.
Phase 1 - increase debt to the max
Phase 2 - debt is maxed out, economy stalls
Phase 3 - reduce credit standards, then increase debt more
Phase 4 - debt is maxed out, economy stalls
Phase 5 - transfer bad debt to government and provide unlimited liquidity to private banking system
Phase 6 - uncharted territory....
... and off the edge of the map is where the real monsters swim.
That Italy is a one spicy meatball. Rolaids anyone?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h3S4dBk4E1g&ob=av3e
DOW chart reveals very overextended price action and another Wile E Coyote scenario...
http://stockmarket618.files.wordpress.com/2011/11/2011-11-09_dow_4_zb.png
In a race to the bottom, you don't have to avoid the actual bottom. Rather you have to avoid falling further or harder than the other guy. Whoever arrives last or with the least internal damage will have won, and in Europe that means a new hegemony to pick up where the Imperial Romans left off 700 years ago. Germany is top of the list, but even a Luxembourg could roar at the very end. The winner will simply be able to dictate terms, pick up slack, provide lost functionality, and -- like the Venetians once did -- rule their slice of the world.
Don't think the leaders in Europe aren't looking at that metric very closely.
Sure. Now how would Europe secure it's energy needs again? With what army?
One cannot rule out Russia as the next European oligarch. Though in the end I think they will deem the overhead too expensive, and will instead settle on selling their natural resources to whoever actually wins that beauty contest.
Amerika's number one and Premiere export -- its meat puppets -- home born and bred for battle or field(tm)
You got that right, but don't underestimate some sort of Russia/Sino effort to make a better meat puppet. Certainly have been vicious warriors in the past.
You can't grow your way out of a debt super cycle by taking on more debt. The debt must be written down and the chips allowed fall where they may.
How can Italy be a credit risk - are they not sitting on heaps of gold?
just trying to comprehend.
We need something to bomb and quick.
It seems that what is bad for the market is good for the market - kick them in the nuts and they are smiling.
Italy's gold is at Fort Knox.
Bullish.. it's everywhere.
Bullish.. it's
take out 2 periods and move the space it becomes Bulli shit's everywhere and Bulli is Italian for...
BULLY!
Indeed - they aim to stimulate growth with austerity measures. Thattsa spicy oxymoron!